Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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Quoting emcf30:
Excerpt out of bigthink that Nea post earlier.

One interesting note is speculation of how any extending periods of ash might effect the hurricane season as the ash is blown westward over Africa to the Atlantic


It seems as if the ash is being blown more northwesterly than westerly.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Quoting Cotillion:
So, it's confirmed to be Nabro.

Could've been asleep for 8, 9, maybe even 10,000 years if it's last eruption was in the Holocene as guessed. Could be even longer, who knows?

Asleep for that long. That is one volcano who desperately needs a strong espresso.



Not in recorded history, but many millions of years ago, the Siberian Traps eruption may have been implicated in the 'Great Dying' extinction event.


Sorry i havent studied up on this yet, is this Volcano
left over from from the Siberian Traps eruption?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
I'm finding myself becoming curious about the long delay in officially announcing which volcano blew its stack... and speculating about the possibility that it was neither Dubbi nor Nabro.

Ignoring the dots labeled with HOD(HodeidaInternational) and ASA(AssabInternational)

The centermost dot(s) in the cluster are the (nearly co-located) epicenters where yesterday the magnitude5.1quake stuck at 3:37pmGMT and the magnitude5.7quake struck at 8:32pmGMT.
~18.2kilometres to the NorthEast is Dubbi : ~9.9kilometre to the(east of due)South is Nabro
The bloated unconnected dot is the 9:03pmGMT magnitude5.7quake's epicenter _AND_
a third*volcano at 13.524n41.617e ~0.6kilometres to the southwest of that third epicenter.

There appears to be remnants of at least two more within a couple of kilometres of that 3rd epicenter. (Note that the third volcano is about as close to the 2nd epicenter as Nabro.)
A volcanic reawakening there might explain the delay in an official announcement and the lack of news out of Afambo, the nearest Eritrean town likely to have cellphone communications.
(The 3rd volcano rim would be the most likely spot to place a cellphone tower. And a major-for-Eritrea road runs eastward near the south of the rim.)

* Sorry. Can't get the blog program to allow a GoogleMaps satellite-view link to work. And the GreatCircleMapper won't show a finer(more closeup)view to separate the dots.
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Quoting Levi32:
Off to work. Later all.


See ya Levi.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Quoting Waltanater:
2102. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

Don't let anybody rush you, we are in no hurry. There is nothing of severe importance going on right now

Yeah, no rush, just 2000+ posts of volcanic ash and non-sense.


Are you really complaining about the number of comments and us talking about volcanoes. If you don't like it, there are thousands of other blogs on here you can go read. Seriously.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
2124. emcf30
Excerpt out of bigthink that Nea post earlier.

One interesting note is speculation of how any extending periods of ash might effect the hurricane season as the ash is blown westward over Africa to the Atlantic
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, June 13th, with Video
You have very good up dates? What is your Weather background?
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It'll be interesting to see how far the ash get's into the stratosphere since it erupted in the Tropics...
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2121. Levi32
Off to work. Later all.
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Quoting Waltanater:
2102. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

Don't let anybody rush you, we are in no hurry. There is nothing of severe importance going on right now

Yeah, no rush, just 2000+ posts of volcanic ash and non-sense.

you were never taught that if you have nothing good to say, it's better to say nothing at all?
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Quoting Levi32:
Volcanoes affect the atmosphere. Meteorology is the study of the atmosphere. Enough said.

exactly, well put.
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Quoting Waltanater:
2102. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

Don't let anybody rush you, we are in no hurry. There is nothing of severe importance going on right now

Yeah, no rush, just 2000+ posts of volcanic ash and non-sense.


Feel free to go elsewhere. One of the interesting things about this blog is the diversity of knowledge and interests. Last I heard we were not here just for you.
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2116. Levi32
Volcanoes affect the atmosphere. Meteorology is the study of the atmosphere. Enough said.
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2115. RJT185
Quoting Waltanater:
2102. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

Don't let anybody rush you, we are in no hurry. There is nothing of severe importance going on right now

Yeah, no rush, just 2000 posts of volcanic ash and non-sense.


You know, you could just take it easy man.
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...and I'm still reading them.
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2112. Patrap
Quoting AussieStorm:

That's a big foot print


Indeed,,and unfortunately they may be Hikers and others lost in the Eruption.
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Quoting aquak9:


and I try to read every last one of'm, too.


That's really hard. You leave the blog for 5 minutes, and suddenly you have another 100 posts to read.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Wow. How exciting to sneak online for a few only to discover Walternator whining....

ANYhoo.... Looks like the bulk of the ash/smoke/cloud etc. from Nabro is going to end up over the Middle East, rather than drifting more directly downwind.... implications for impacts similar to SAL over the eastern ATL seem lower probability ATM....

Still waiting for some on-site images to pop up on the net....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting aquak9:


and I try to read every last one of'm, too.

We had another tracker bomber. How your weather been, plain as normal, no rain?
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There's that swirl still.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Quoting Cotillion:
So, it's confirmed to be Nabro.

Could've been asleep for 8, 9, maybe even 10,000 years if it's last eruption was in the Holocene as guessed. Could be even longer, who knows?

Asleep for that long. That is one volcano who desperately needs a strong espresso.



Not in recorded history, but many millions of years ago, the Siberian Traps eruption may have been implicated in the 'Great Dying' extinction event.

Yeah, but: from the Volcanism Blog:

"Nabro is a stratovolcano reaching to 2,218 metres a.s.l., truncated by nested calderas of 5 km and 8 km diameter, the latter caldera having a wide breach to the SW. Although Nabro has no recorded Holocene eruptive activity, the GVP (from which this description comes) notes that ‘ Some very recent lava flows were erupted from NNW-trending fissures transverse to the trend of the Nabro volcanic range’, so if the current activity is from the Nabro complex it does not necessarily represent the surprise re-awakening of the volcano after millennia of dormancy."
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13551
Quoting Patrap:



Nabro Volcano Climbing, Hiking & Mountaineering


* Elevation: 7277 ft
* Difficulty:
* Best months to climb:
* Convenient center:

That's a big foot print
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2105. aquak9
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I've seen blogs go up to 5,000 last season in one day. This aint nothing.


and I try to read every last one of'm, too.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
when he is good and ready


He's probably already working on it now.
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Quoting JeffMasters:


Having a little virus trouble this morning, my nephew was messing with my computer yesterday, ugh. Should have a new post by 11am.

Jeff Masters


Thanks Jeff no hurry
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting JeffMasters:


Having a little virus trouble this morning, my nephew was messing with my computer yesterday, ugh. Should have a new post by 11am.

Jeff Masters


Don't let anybody rush you, we are in no hurry. There is nothing of severe importance going on right now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
2101. Patrap



Nabro Volcano Climbing, Hiking & Mountaineering


* Elevation: 7277 ft
* Difficulty:
* Best months to climb:
* Convenient center:
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2100. Levi32
Quoting JeffMasters:


Having a little virus trouble this morning, my nephew was messing with my computer yesterday, ugh. Should have a new post by 11am.

Jeff Masters


Get linux ;)
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Quoting JeffMasters:


Having a little virus trouble this morning, my nephew was messing with my computer yesterday, ugh. Should have a new post by 11am.

Jeff Masters

I know what that's like, My son did the same thing, He now has his own account with restricted access. Take your time, Nothing much going on at the moment.
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2098. Patrap
Thanx for the heads up.

Life is like that sometimes Dr. Masters.

With your expertise in Airborne aerosols,were sure the upcoming entry will touch on yesterdays events.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Do you want to learn how to quote people?


Yes, I KNOW how to QUOTE someone. Sometimes the frame doesn't allow me to enter text and refreshes back out of it, so I just copy and paste to get around it.
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2096. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
don't sweat it doc take your time
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So, it's confirmed to be Nabro.

Could've been asleep for 8, 9, maybe even 10,000 years if it's last eruption was in the Holocene as guessed. Could be even longer, who knows?

Asleep for that long. That is one volcano who desperately needs a strong espresso.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam grateful that it was not a super volcano and a global killing eruption has not occur not yet anyway


Not in recorded history, but many millions of years ago, the Siberian Traps eruption may have been implicated in the 'Great Dying' extinction event.
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2094. Bitmap7
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2093. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting Waltanater:
2076. Patrap 2:14 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Relax,,enjoy a Fresca or something.


Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

YEAH, WHEN?


Having a little virus trouble this morning, my nephew was messing with my computer yesterday, ugh. Should have a new post by 11am.

Jeff Masters
2092. Grothar
If this isn't an eruption, then it has to be a guy smoking the biggest cigar you have ever seen:


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2091. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Waltanater:
We are lacking in Hurricanes at the moment...if there were a CAT 5 heading for CONUS, we would definitely be talking about that, instead of some volcano blowing ash over the Middle East.
iam grateful that it was not a super volcano and a global killing eruption has not occur not yet anyway
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Quoting Waltanater:
2085. AussieStorm 2:26 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Waltanater:
We are lacking in Hurricanes at the moment...if there were a CAT 5 heading for CONUS, we would definitely be talking about that, instead of some volcano blowing ash over the Middle East.
We could talk about the ash cloud from Chile that's disrupting the airspace over southern Australia and more than likely falling on Antarctica and when the summer sun hits that ash it would probably cause more summertime melt.


Maybe in a different BLOG, yes.

Do you want to learn how to quote people?
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2089. Jax82
Todays image of the mid-east eruption. Top-middle.



Link to KMZ
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
2085. AussieStorm 2:26 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Waltanater:
We are lacking in Hurricanes at the moment...if there were a CAT 5 heading for CONUS, we would definitely be talking about that, instead of some volcano blowing ash over the Middle East.
We could talk about the ash cloud from Chile that's disrupting the airspace over southern Australia and more than likely falling on Antarctica and when the summer sun hits that ash it would probably cause more summertime melt.


Maybe in a different BLOG, yes.
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Quoting Waltanater:
Yes, its a GREAT observation. Too bad it has not been realized until now.


I don't understand your point. Is it bad they are talking about volcanoes or something?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Yes, its a GREAT observation. Too bad it has not been realized until now.
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Quoting Waltanater:
We are lacking in Hurricanes at the moment...if there were a CAT 5 heading for CONUS, we would definitely be talking about that, instead of some volcano blowing ash over the Middle East.

We could talk about the ash cloud from Chile that's disrupting the airspace over southern Australia and New Zealand and more than likely falling on Antarctica and when the summer sun hits that ash it would probably cause more summertime melt.
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Quoting Waltanater:
We are lacking in Hurricanes at the moment...if there were a CAT 5 heading for CONUS, we would definitely be talking about that, instead of some volcano blowing ash over the Middle East.


good observation?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
We are lacking in Hurricanes at the moment...if there were a CAT 5 heading for CONUS, we would definitely be talking about that, instead of some volcano blowing ash over the Middle East.
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2082. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Waltanater:
2076. Patrap 2:14 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Relax,,enjoy a Fresca or something.


Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

YEAH, WHEN?
when he is good and ready
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2081. Levi32
Quoting HurricaneDevo:
Is there a second eruption going on? About halfway up the plume, to the north, seems like a second plume starts.


That's a thunderstorm.
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2080. Bitmap7
Quoting HurricaneDevo:


Do you have a later image, the item I am talking about started about 12:45 UTC?


Yeah I see it too, but I doubt it.
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Quoting Patrap:
Relax,,enjoy a Fresca or something.


Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Indeed. Dr. Masters' posts are always greatly appreciated, but it's not as if we're lacking in things to discuss...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13551

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.