Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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1279. pottery
Quoting AussieStorm:

I need to get rid of this chest and head cold i have had for the past month. It's either this or very strong anti-biotics that will hurt my immune system.

Thanks for responding, Aussie.
I really appreciate it.
Especially since everyone else seems to be ignoring me this morning...

Several questions in my post 1257, and ???
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24313
1278. IKE

Quoting AussieStorm:

Oh, Z1,,,,, rain???
Yeah...unfortunately.

Drink good?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1277. aquak9
Good morning all from NE Fla.

Kinda funny to wake up to Aussie getting bombed.

We are still, silent, warm, dry, and stinky-musty-smokey. I blog from a screen porch, so I'm always outside when I'm here.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25931
Quoting DARPAsockpuppet:
Sales Promotion Rules
Baker Brothers Free Tankless Promotion
Any individual who purchases a Rheem Tankless Water Heater between June 7 - 30, 2011 from Baker Brothers Plumbing in Dallas Fort Worth is entitled to a refund that covers the full purchase price, basic installation and sales tax (approximately $3,200), excluding upgrading the homeowner's current gas supply lines (if required), if the maximum daily temperature does not meet or exceed one-hundred (100.0) degrees for any one (1) or more of the thirty-one (31) days in July. (see bullet point 4 below). Should one-hundred (100.0) degrees or above be recorded for any one or more dates, no refund can be claimed.Link

:rollseyes:

$3200 = rip-off
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Quoting IKE:
Well....there it goes....



Oh, Z1,,,,, rain???
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Quoting IKE:

lol.

Whatever happens will happen in this season. We can't do anything about it.

It'll pick up soon. I still predict 2 cane landfalls in the lower 48 this year. I hope I'm wrong.

I usually am:)

You maybe right, you maybe crazy. but it just maybe a lunatic this blog is looking for.
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1272. IKE
Well....there it goes....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1271. IKE

Quoting Neapolitan:

It's just 354 days, 12 hours, and 1 minute until the start of the 2012 hurricane season... ;-)
lol.

Whatever happens will happen in this season. We can't do anything about it.

It'll pick up soon. I still predict 2 cane landfalls in the lower 48 this year. I hope I'm wrong.

I usually am:)
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting pottery:

Enjoy it.
It sounds like pretty High Octane stuff, to me!

I need to get rid of this chest and head cold i have had for the past month. It's either this or very strong anti-biotics that will hurt my immune system.
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1269. pottery
Quoting AussieStorm:

I have plenty to drink, and i will drink it all. almost finished my 1st mug, got about 3 more to go by the looks of it.

Enjoy it.
It sounds like pretty High Octane stuff, to me!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24313
1267. pottery
Quoting Neapolitan:

It's just 354 days, 12 hours, and 1 minute until the start of the 2012 hurricane season... ;-)

Good morning Nea.
What do you think about Dr. Phil Jones changing sides like that?
You think he has lost his marbles??

:):))
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24313
Quoting pottery:
Hey Aussie!
When you have finished drinking that, I want to see your posts.
They should be pretty wild....

Hope you feel better soon!

I have plenty to drink, and i will drink it all. almost finished my 1st mug, got about 3 more to go by the looks of it.
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1265. emcf30
Wallow Fire


Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Quoting IKE:
The "newness" of the season has already worn off. August anyone?

It's just 354 days, 12 hours, and 1 minute until the start of the 2012 hurricane season... ;-)
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1263. pottery
Hey Aussie!
When you have finished drinking that, I want to see your posts.
They should be pretty wild....

Hope you feel better soon!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24313
1262. DEKRE
Quoting AussieStorm:

If there was another Election in the coming months, the current govt would lose badly.


When I was in Australia, the Ozzies didn't strike me as being that short sighted

Mind you, that was 20 years ago
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1261. IKE
I agree that June means little in the ATL.

Florida needs rain. It doesn't look like this is the week though.


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1260. emcf30


This forecast STINKS
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Anyone care to join me for a hot drink? This is what's in it... 1 can or lemonade, 1 can lemon, 1 can of V, 1/4 bottle of Bourbon and 4 panadols. I made it to get rid of my chest and head cold. Grrrrr at winter, bring back summer i say.
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June with 3 goose eggs never mean real much.

I'm just hoping something develops that is weak and comes to Florida this month, maybe it will trigger the rainy season too while giving us much needed rain.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24022
1257. pottery
Good Morning, you early birds.
I remember an old saying about early birds getting worms, or some such thing.
So you guys need to be careful about that.

Anyway, look at the SAL this morning...
Huge outbreak, but really far North.
I cant remember seeing that before.
There is a very peculiar set-up there with winds from the south (?) off the Gulf of Guinea and over central West Africa.

How will this affect the progression of T-Waves?
Also, it's strange (but not unusual for June) how relatively dry the Trop. Atl. has become after a couple of weeks of being very moist.

Did anyone see the BBC report on Mr. Phil Jones?
He WAS a major Global Warming Sceptic.
But now he is firmly in the camp of the Worried.
That's bad news, you know!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24313
1256. IKE

Quoting AussieStorm:

Your just calling it how you see it mate! Nothing wrong with that.
Exactly. I wish Florida had a soaking TD providing several inches of rain.

Good morning...or evening......


Quoting DestinJeff:


Ike, Downcaster Extraordinaire!
Maybe it will change the last few days of June. I've got a 50% chance of rain this afternoon.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:

LOL.

I could have said for the next 10 days instead of 7, but I'm already flirting with be labeled a downcaster again.

Heck...the entire month may be 0-0-0!!!!

The "newness" of the season has already worn off. August anyone?

Your just calling it how you see it mate! Nothing wrong with that.
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Two days ago when Sunday was at 50% I said it would be down to 20% in 24 hours. Guess I was right. Thanks 94L for the letdown.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24022
1252. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
funny thing is looking a the b&w water vapor this yr there has been plenty of moisture over the tropical atlantic. more than most. Ive seen that image bone dry throughout the region yet thunderstorms developed over florida in the afternoon. the yr of the big fire and a yr about 25 yrs ago are the only ones i remember like this. there are way too many green lawns around the area ground water supply has to be dwindling at a increasing rate we are only suppose to water once a wk ha! if a lawn is green it should be ticketed
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1250. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:


Ike, I still theorize that it is your "0-0-0" posts, and "GFS through ____" type posts that keep the Atlantic calm and US coasts safe.
LOL.

I could have said for the next 10 days instead of 7, but I'm already flirting with be labeled a downcaster again.

Heck...the entire month may be 0-0-0!!!!

The "newness" of the season has already worn off. August anyone?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1249. IKE



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
all the forecasters in the area blew it some even called 50% of precip this wkend. last night in e fl. there was not even a cloud. it is becoming more and more likely the only way to bust this drought is with a slow moving cyclone. thunderstorm season aint happening
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11158
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good evening Aussie and good morning to the rest. Aussie, do you have the updated ACE for the WPAC after Sarika?

Read all about it here and here
(note: for the second link to see the full numbers for each storm, click the Cyclone Number i.e 201101)
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1244. IKE
Looks like 0-0-0 will continue in the Atlantic for at least the next 7 days. Models show nothing for a week.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good evening Aussie and good morning to the rest. Aussie, do you have the updated ACE for the WPAC after Sarika?
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1242. IKE
Tampa....

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...U/L RIDGE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS CREATING ONSHORE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE U/L
RIDGE AND WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO HOT VERY HUMID UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S.
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
COMBINED WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE 105 TO
110.
BEST CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR DUE TO THE WESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT
NORTH ON THURSDAY AND HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS THE U/L RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION WITH HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE MID 90S. CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON BUT POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
CLIMATIC NORMALS.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1241. IKE
Key West shows a 50% chance of rain today. Not sure about that happening...but....

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS WILL BE
SITUATED IN BETWEEN FAIRLY DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE GREAT LAKES STATES AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER TEXAS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THIS...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK...DRY AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTH. MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP BELOW
1.25 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AND MORE THAN ENOUGH DRY AIR TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION. HARD
TO SAY IN MID JUNE...BUT EVEN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY IN
FORECAST PACKAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
VIRGIN Australia has joined Qantas in suspending all domestic and international flights in and out of Melbourne as a plume of volcanic ash drifts across from South America.

Virgin's Sean Donohue said 34 domestic flights and one international service would be suspended from 7pm (AEST).

"We have been closely monitoring the situation all day," he said in a statement.

"Safety is always our number one priority."

This afternoon the airline decided to cancel five flights to and from Australia and New Zealand.

Earlier, a Qantas spokeswoman said all of its flights in and out of Melbourne and Auckland would be grounded from 6pm.

All Qantas flights to and from Tasmania, Christchurch, Queenstown and Wellington had already been cancelled.

About 8000 people would be affected, the Qantas spokeswoman said.

"Qantas will continue to monitor the movement of the ash cloud and its impact on further operations," she said.

The Puyehue volcano in Chile began erupting on June 4, with the initial ash plume reaching above 15,240m (50,000 ft).

The volcanic cloud drifted over the southern skies last night and is expected to remain for the next few days.
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Quoting IKE:
A real teaser.....



That's really mean.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


That's unfortunate.

When is the next election for you guys?

Next election is in 2013.
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1237. IKE
A real teaser.....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1236. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
RSMC Miami National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER ADRIAN (EP012011)
2:00 AM PDT June 12 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: "ADRIAN" Weakens Into A Tropical Depression

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Adrian (1004 hPa) located at 16.1N 114.8W or 495 NM southwest Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.2N 117.0W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45307
Quoting KoritheMan:


Thanks for the compliment, but I've had help. That's the only reason I've come as far as I have.
yeah, well we've all received help at some point.

Anyway, I guess levi did sign off. Oh well, gonna have to wait till tomorrow. I'm out for now, later. And do get some rest, I'm guessing you live in a later time some than me
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Quoting TomTaylor:
well its an interesting guess, hopefully levi hasn't left yet

BTW, just wanted to say I appreciate your posting on this blog. You are very insightful and seem to know quite a good amount about weather and I don't think you get as much credit as you deserve


Thanks for the compliment, but I've had help. That's the only reason I've come as far as I have.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Well, I'm thinking that maybe the increased heat energy (convection) associated with the passage of the upward MJO pulse enhances convection within the ITCZ, thereby allowing an intertwining (and thus northward expansion) of the shower activity.

Mind you, this is just a guess on my part. I'm sure Levi will correct the both of us in a minute.
well its an interesting guess, hopefully levi hasn't left yet

BTW, just wanted to say I appreciate your posting on this blog. You are very insightful and seem to know quite a good amount about weather and I don't think you get as much credit as you deserve
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1232. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION ARB01-2011
8:30 AM IST June 12 2011
====================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Depression ARB01-2011 over northeast Arabian Sea off Maharashtra-south Gujarat coasts moved north northwestward and crossed Saurashtra coast about 25 km east of Diu in the early morning and now lays about 70 km south southwest of Amreli. It will move northwestward and weak gradually during the next 24 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45307
Quoting TomTaylor:
thanks kori, that makes sense, but I'm still not sure how the MJO would alter the position of the position of the ITCZ


Well, I'm thinking that maybe the increased heat energy (convection) associated with the passage of the upward MJO pulse enhances convection within the ITCZ, thereby allowing an intertwining (and thus northward expansion) of the shower activity.

Mind you, this is just a guess on my part. I'm sure Levi will correct the both of us in a minute.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I don't want to hog the spotlight Levi, but I don't know if you're still around so I thought I'd answer his question.

Tom, I am not entirely sure, but I wager that during the peak months of the season, when SSTs are warmest in the eastern Atlantic, the upward phase of the MJO is in full force in that region whenever it comes around, effectively causing a northward migration of the ITCZ.

Conversely, if the negative phase is present, the ITCZ is more southward, and thus waves come off farther south as well.
thanks kori, that makes sense, but I'm still not sure how the MJO would alter the position of the position of the ITCZ
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Does anyone have an MJO forecast for the GOM, Caribbean and Western Atlantic for the meat of the season(mid Aug thru Sept)?
I don't think they do forecasts that far out for the MJO.

One thing you can look at however, are the seasonal model forecasts for precipitation and mslp, as well as SST anomalies. I would think forecasted greater precipitation, lower mslp, as well as above normal SSTs in a basin would favor the idea that when the MJO finally reaches that basin, it would be stronger than usual and possibly last longer than usual.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.