Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

Share this Blog
5
+

The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1379 - 1329

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

A tropical wave with a well-defined inverted V-signature is currently located around 50W. No development is expected right now, but it will be possible once it enters the Caribbean, and ultimately the western Caribbean.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1378. DDR
Quoting pottery:
The current BBC News website has an article on Severe Flooding in China.
After prolonged drought, torrential rains have created havoc.
Up to 27,000 people are homeless.
Incredible images there too.
"Only" 63.4 mm so far (2.5").... You must be reading plenty more than that?
I am loving it!
My cisterns are overflowing since the 2nd June. Earliest ever!
Calabash tree put out New Leaves on the 7th. So that is the Official start of the Rainy Season!

Actually just half inch,im at 3.05 inches since June 1st.

I was looking at the satellite pictures from over China some days ago and i thought to myself that that's flooding rains for sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1377. Grothar
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

lol, Whatever isn't there is on Wikipedia anyway.


LOL I'll see what I can do for you.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting pottery:
The current BBC News website has an article on Severe Flooding in China.
After prolonged drought, torrential rains have created havoc.
Up to 27,000 people are homeless.
Incredible images there too.


China floods death toll hits 94

THE death toll from heavy rains lashing central and southern China has risen to at least 94, with 78 people missing, officials say.

China's State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters said today that torrential rains over the last week had triggered floods and landslides in 13 provinces, impacting on 8.48 million people and destroying 465,000 hectares of crops,

Water Resources Minister Chen Lei was quoted as saying the scope and intensity of the rains had caused grave casualties and damage to homes
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Ash cloud from volcanic eruption in Chile puts Australian flights in meltdown

AS air passengers were left stranded last night, Qantas and Jetstar defended their decision to cancel flights before other airlines, which continued to fly under a massive plume of volanic ash.

Qantas and Jetstar were the first to cancel all Tasmanian and trans-Tasman flights, as well as Jetstar's domestic NZ services, due to the ash from the Puyehue volcano in Chile.

But while Airservices Australia said that flying lower would only mean an airline burned more fuel in the heavier atmosphere, a Qantas spokeswoman insisted that safety was the only factor in making the decision.

"Our safety assessment is that we won't fly underneath ash cloud," she said. "We deem that to be a risk."

Flights to and from Tasmania and New Zealand were the first to be cancelled as the ash crept over Australia.

At 6pm Qantas and Jetstar - along with Tiger Air - cancelled Melbourne flights as well, with Virgin following suit at 7pm.
By last night Jetstar had cancelled 92 flights affecting 12,000 passengers, Qantas cancelled 56 flights affecting 8000 passengers and Virgin 40 flights affecting 8000. Tiger had cancelled 12 flights, with almost 2000 passengers

And the long weekend travel plans of thousands of other air travellers are expected to be thrown into chaos today, with the Bureau of Meteorology's Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre predicted the ash would still be hovering over southeast Australia this morning.

Airservices Australia said the plume could affect air travel for the next few days.

The volcano began erupting on June 4, with the initial ash plume reaching above 15,000m. Ash began spreading and looked like threatening flights in and out of Perth on Friday, however that cloud dissipated - only to have the far more serious disruption from a much larger cloud to the south and east.

That cloud is more than 12,000km across and hovering between 20,000ft and 35,000ft and is expected to remain for the next few days.

"While this part of the ash cloud is not expected to impact southeast Australia beyond a day, other parts of the ash cloud are being closely watched in case they move over Australia," Airservices Australia said. University of NSW engineer and aircraft maintenance expert Peter Marosszeky said that volcanic ash could have "disastrous consequences" on aircraft flying through it.

While the pumice-like ash acts like sandpaper on a jet's exterior, it would also "choke up the sensitive ports within the engines and block them as well as melting in the turbine area and forming an undesirable coating ... destroying the aerodynamics".

All airlines were monitoring the situation further overnight to see whether further cancellations were necessary.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
1374. pottery
BBL>>>

( a bachelors work is never done....)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24903
1373. pottery
The current BBC News website has an article on Severe Flooding in China.
After prolonged drought, torrential rains have created havoc.
Up to 27,000 people are homeless.
Incredible images there too.
Quoting DDR:
Hi pottery
How's your rainfall for June shaping up?

"Only" 63.4 mm so far (2.5").... You must be reading plenty more than that?
I am loving it!
My cisterns are overflowing since the 2nd June. Earliest ever!
Calabash tree put out New Leaves on the 7th. So that is the Official start of the Rainy Season!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24903
1372. Grothar
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Really cool link Grothar. I marked it. Thanks!


Funny, I asked where you were last night! I hope you didn't turn into a lurker.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
1371. DDR
The Gfs and Nogaps continue to bring moisture into the area through out next week,classic rainy season so far in my area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
somehow i strogly believe that this srason will be more active than forecast. the reason is that conditions are rapidly improving for an early cape verde season. storminess over africa, the early northward push of the itcz, which too is very active. the weak SAL ,low wind shear, early organised tropical waves and increasing ssts will all combine to make this a very interesting season. the way it looks now i expect to eee a number of july cape verdestorms
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2722
I can't speak for elsewhere, but the skies around Naples are filling rapidly with tall, hard-edged cumulus congestus, so it appears at the moment that we'll see some showers today, if not more than that. The seabreeze front has already set up, however, so that may keep the good stuff too far inland to do most of us any good--though even the open waters have some towering cumulus clouds that are shooting up rapidly, then dissipating just as quickly. NWS says 40%; I'd go considerably higher than that.

[fingers crossed]
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
1368. pottery
The current BBC News website has an article on Severe Flooding in China.
After prolonged drought, torrential rains have created havoc.
Up to 27,000 people are homeless.
Incredible images there too.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24903
1367. DDR
Hi pottery
How's your rainfall for June shaping up?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:



Geez, I didn't write the thing, I just posted it. I noticed there were two storms from the 1700's that I remember that aren't on there, but I'm not complaining.

lol, Whatever isn't there is on Wikipedia anyway.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Radar:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1364. Grothar
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Awesome, but why isn't last year's Alex in there?



Geez, I didn't write the thing, I just posted it. I noticed there were two storms from the 1700's that I remember that aren't on there, but I'm not complaining.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Our little blob some have been watching for a few days entering stage right.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1362. pottery
Quoting Grothar:
This article was on BING MSN. Any of you fellow weather nerds will find this link interesting and useful. It provides graphics and histories of past storms and has archive data by dates.

Link

NICE link.
You may be Old, but you're still 'with it'... :)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24903
1361. pottery
TAwx13, Post 1351
That's a really fine post.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24903
Quoting Grothar:
This article was on BING MSN. Any of you fellow weather nerds will find this link interesting and useful. It provides graphics and histories of past storms and has archive data by dates.

Link

Awesome, but why isn't last year's Alex in there?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'd be nice if CIMSS Tropical Cyclones would do a product archive back about 30 years or so that for systems like Hurricane Allen, one of the strongest hurricanes of all (190 mph), we could see what conditions were like for development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Really cool link Grothar. I marked it. Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Looking at your earlier post, the conditions are ready. Just that there isn't anything that has a chance to form.


Yeah, its really concerning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nope, nothing interesting at this time in the Atlantic.

Looking at your earlier post, the conditions are ready. Just that there isn't anything that has a chance to form.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
This article was on BING MSN. Any of you fellow weather nerds will find this link interesting and useful. It provides graphics and histories of past storms and has archive data by dates.

Link


That's awesome!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good morning guys. Anything interesting out there? Also its pouring outside. I wish the rain would move to some place that needs it, like the southern half of the US.


Nope, nothing interesting at this time in the Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1353. Grothar
This article was on BING MSN. Any of you fellow weather nerds will find this link interesting and useful. It provides graphics and histories of past storms and has archive data by dates.

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Good morning guys. Anything interesting out there? Also its pouring outside. I wish the rain would move to some place that needs it, like the southern half of the US.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Concerning facts about this upcoming season...

1.) Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface temperatures are now running 28 %uFFFDC or higher across the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean. 26 %uFFFDC extends all the way up to the coast of North Carolina, meaning that development is possible anywhere south of 35N.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures across the Atlantic.

2.) Wind Shear
Even though Wind Shear appears to be very high, it is far below normal across most of the Atlantic. As we head later into the season, the Wind Shear should decrease even further.


Figure 2. Wind Shear in the Caribbean.

3.) Saharan Air Layer (SAL)
One thing that really concerns me about the development of Cape Verde systems is SAL. It is well below what it was this time last year, and with low wind shear, and practically no SAL, what is to stop a hurricane from impacting the USA is the steering levels take it that away?


Figure 3. Current SAL levels in the Atlantic.

4.) Interesting tropical waves
Tropical waves so far this season have been coming off a little more defined that what they should be for June. For instance, the wave currently near 50W has a well-defined inverter V signature, which is more typical of July. Also, Africa is very active for this time of the year, indicating we may see an active Cape Verde season.

I don't like the way this season is setting up. Now is the time to prepare if you live in the Caribbean, along the USA's coastlines, or in any other country that could see an impact from a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ran across this Montana map with counties under a flood declaration (shaded in red) as of Thursday. Not a lot of white:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


I must confess that the West is a mess...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
The last advisory on Adrian has been written.


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2011

ADRIAN IS ESSENTIALLY A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW TRANSIENT PUFFS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE ADRIAN
HAS LARGELY BEEN DEVOID OF CONVECTION FOR A WHILE NOW...IT NO
LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS BEING DECLARED A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...BASED UPON AN
EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND THE STILL VIGOROUS APPEARANCE OF THE
CIRCULATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE
IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS
ADRIAN IS MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...AND GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST DISSIPATION WITHIN 24-48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10 AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF
ADRIAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATING
AS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
SINCE THE MODELS FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT ASSUME A STRONGER SYSTEM
WHEN ADRIAN IS ALREADY A SHALLOW CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS WHICH WEAKEN ADRIAN
FASTER.

THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON ADRIAN. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 16.5N 115.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 13/0000Z 17.1N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/1200Z 17.8N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0000Z 18.7N 118.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For the second time 94L is deactivated.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al942011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201106121416
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1347. afj3
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Indeed the TCHP is troubeling as it has warmed in the past few weeks.And also the GOM loop current is well above normal as Cybr said.

If anyone wants to discuss about the worse case scenarios when systems develop close to land, go to my blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Whoa, the TCHP has spiked in the past day.



Mentioned it on my blog just posted, it has exceeded 2010's level of TCHP this time last year. Very concerning how the SST and TCHP have taken a sharp reversal from what we were seeing in April or so, and the GOMEX remains well above average too.

2010 TCHP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Whoa, the TCHP has spiked in the past day.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blog update!
The Atlantic is quiet 6/12/11
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

Ins't that how it should be worked out?


Wiki explains it in detail how is done without using atcf.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I think the higher number is because it uses all the atcf stats that inflates it,but that is only my opinion about why the numbers are not the same.

Ins't that how it should be worked out?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting AussieStorm:

I read higher than that.

Adrian (120 ACE = 12.6925 )


I think the higher number is because it uses all the atcf stats that inflates it,but that is only my opinion about why the numbers are not the same.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1337. srada
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Good Morning All....That possibility is pretty common event (model wise) every year around June and July when we see those pockets of low sheer off the US East coast sandwiched between the sub-tropical jet to the south and polar jet to the North but the climatology may or may not result in actual formation.


HWRF, NOGAPS and CMC also hint at the same storm..lets hope it pans out..we need rain here in eastern NC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The final ACE numbers for Adrian are 11.86.

Link

I read higher than that.

Adrian (120 ACE = 12.6925 )
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
1335. unruly
Quoting aquak9:
hahaha- Hi unruly! I was eating raw corn around midnite last night, hahaha
Me too!!!! HAHAHAH too funny!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The final ACE numbers for Adrian are 11.86.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting srada:
Good Morning Everyone..

GFS consistenly showing a storm off the NC coast next week..

Link


Good Morning All....That possibility is pretty common event (model wise) every year around June and July when we see those pockets of low sheer off the US East coast sandwiched between the sub-tropical jet to the south and polar jet to the North but the climatology may or may not result in actual formation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1332. pottery
You know, some people think that "severe weather" is wind and rain and lightening.

Severe Weather also includes Heat, Drought and Fire.

Just saying...

BBL >>>>
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24903
Quoting aquak9:
depends on what that word is, Aussie. "Panties" will get you banned for sure.

Lol,


RAIN.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
1330. srada
Good Morning Everyone..

GFS consistenly showing a storm off the NC coast next week..

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1379 - 1329

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
38 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron