Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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We are now in a deficit of 10" here.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
1428. Levi32
The GFS ensembles are now again starting to show the kind of pattern that could lead to tropical mischief in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico during the last week of June. Ridging (green colors) over eastern North America, if far enough north, tends to incubate the tropical circulation cell to its south, and upward motion is being indicated in the west Caribbean by below-normal 500mb heights (blue colors). These heights are not low because of colder temperature, but because of upward motion initiating the release of latent heat into the upper troposphere, expanding the air column and lowering the 500mb height level.

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Quoting Levi32:
It's a bit concerning to look back at all the hurricane seasons since 1950 with 3 or more hurricane hits on the United States, and then compare those with 2011. This image shows the difference between 2011 May SST anomalies and the SST anomalies of all of those years (2011 minus all). We have been a whole lot warmer in the MDR so far in 2011, thanks to the wild winter we had over North America.



That is troubling.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting pottery:
Trinidad weather--
Temp 93f (an hour ago)
Dew Pt. 75
Heat Index 98F

It's a little Warm....

Noth-Central PR weather
Temp 90F
Dew Point 77
Heat Index 104F
It's too hot out here.
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1424. pottery
Trinidad weather--
Temp 93f (an hour ago)
Dew Pt. 75
Heat Index 98F

It's a little Warm....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1421. JRRP
finalmente aterrizan en el tropico
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5974
1420. Levi32
It's a bit concerning to look back at all the hurricane seasons since 1950 with 3 or more hurricane hits on the United States, and then compare those with 2011. This image shows the difference between 2011 May SST anomalies and the SST anomalies of all of those years (2011 minus all). We have been a whole lot warmer in the MDR so far in 2011, thanks to the wild winter we had over North America.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting brohavwx:
I just wanted to alert everyone that our (Barbados) new Doppler Radar has not been working for the last 3 months or so, last image data posted was on March 1st., and we only managed to get the local met. authorities to get it online very late last year - after Tomas went through us and it wasn't working properly then either.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/radarImagery.php

The system has been producing imagery since late 2008 and its 3 year warranty runs out later this year and we still have not seen 'return on the EU loan' that funded the project. Our Met. Office's attitude as quoted in one local paper on the subject was like we did without for all this time, we can continue to make do (with the radar out of Martinique nearly 150 miles away). So much for serious consideration and disaster preparedness.

Furthermore the Rawinsonde/Radiosonde ground equipment at our local Met. Office, located at the Grantley Adams Int'l. Airport (GAIA), has not been working either for about 6 weeks, so no sonde data had been posted by TBPB/78954 station since the later half of April. Its awaiting some part. This missing data has the NHC/NWS obviously concerned because of the strategic position of Barbados being the most easterly of the Caribbean islands.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol_web/adp_plots/ raobs/raobs_world.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol_web/adp_plots/ raobs/78954/latest.html

I have written letters to the locals newspapers with some success in getting it published, tried various avenues, some could be promising but bureaucratic inertia could be an issue, so I decided to go full open on this and warn all concerned.
Wounder how many tomahawk missals the world would have to do without to fix this. Sounds strategic to me. Just saying.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
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1417. pottery
Thanks for 'heads up' on that, BROHAVWX.

The Trinidad Radar is at

www.metoffice.gov.tt/satellite_imagery/radar.aspx
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
Quoting Grothar:
We are going to play a quick game of racquetball and be back later. Have fun!
You found your round rock and one handed club again! Be careful, don't start any wars.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1415. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


and a well-defined inverted V-signature:



It's impressive.


Indeed. Too bad it's about to move into a confluent environment aloft. It may not look so nice after a day of that.
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Quoting Levi32:
Our tropical wave along ~52W has a signature on ASCAT:



and a well-defined inverted V-signature:



It's impressive.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
1412. Levi32
Quoting brohavwx:
I just wanted to alert everyone that our (Barbados) new Doppler Radar has not been working for the last 3 months or so, last image data posted was on March 1st., and we only managed to get the local met. authorities to get it online very late last year - after Tomas went through us and it wasn't working properly then either.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/radarImagery.php

The system has been producing imagery since late 2008 and its 3 year warranty runs out later this year and we still have not seen 'return on the EU loan' that funded the project. Our Met. Office's attitude as quoted in one local paper on the subject was like we did without for all this time, we can continue to make do (with the radar out of Martinique nearly 150 miles away). So much for serious consideration and disaster preparedness.

Furthermore the Rawinsonde/Radiosonde ground equipment at our local Met. Office, located at the Grantley Adams Int'l. Airport (GAIA), has not been working either for about 6 weeks, so no sonde data had been posted by TBPB/78954 station since the later half of April. Its awaiting some part. This missing data has the NHC/NWS obviously concerned because of the strategic position of Barbados being the most easterly of the Caribbean islands.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol_web/adp_plots/ raobs/raobs_world.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol_web/adp_plots/ raobs/78954/latest.html

I have written letters to the locals newspapers with some success in getting it published, tried various avenues, some could be promising but bureaucratic inertia could be an issue, so I decided to go full open on this and warn all concerned.


Thank you very much for the info. Those instruments are definitely essential to have online, not only for Barbados but for other interests in the Caribbean that rely on the data that comes from Barbados. I hope you make some headway in getting people to fix those tools.
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1410. Levi32
Our tropical wave along ~52W has a signature on ASCAT:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just wanted to alert everyone that our (Barbados) new Doppler Radar has not been working for the last 3 months or so, last image data posted was on March 1st., and we only managed to get the local met. authorities to get it online very late last year - after Tomas went through us and it wasn't working properly then either.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/radarImagery.php

The system has been producing imagery since late 2008 and its 3 year warranty runs out later this year and we still have not seen 'return on the EU loan' that funded the project. Our Met. Office's attitude as quoted in one local paper on the subject was like we did without for all this time, we can continue to make do (with the radar out of Martinique nearly 150 miles away). So much for serious consideration and disaster preparedness.

Furthermore the Rawinsonde/Radiosonde ground equipment at our local Met. Office, located at the Grantley Adams Int'l. Airport (GAIA), has not been working either for about 6 weeks, so no sonde data had been posted by TBPB/78954 station since the later half of April. Its awaiting some part. This missing data has the NHC/NWS obviously concerned because of the strategic position of Barbados being the most easterly of the Caribbean islands.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol_web/adp_plots/ raobs/raobs_world.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol_web/adp_plots/ raobs/78954/latest.html

I have written letters to the locals newspapers with some success in getting it published, tried various avenues, some could be promising but bureaucratic inertia could be an issue, so I decided to go full open on this and warn all concerned.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1407. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Look I got a 50,000 acre fire going out here and I know that it does not compare to whats going on in Arizona. However what I do know is that we are losing water inches by inches daily out of Lake Okeechobee, and we need rain badly. I want to know where all the promised rain is this weekend, the smoke has been creating weird cloud formations and even Smoke Tornadoes
all the rain is gone ne out over sw tropical atlantic looks to be dry desert like conditions for a bit yet rainy season has not firer up and may not even occur at all maybe a tropical system that comes along will bring the rain and those dont start till late june july and onward
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Not to quibble but i think you may have that backwards, depends. From my perspective storm is the actor and CONUS is the audience. Means storm would be entering from stage left.

"R" and "L" are "stage right" and "stage left". HOWEVER (This is really important to understand) stage right is the actor's right as the actor stands on the stage facing the audience. Stage left is the actor's left as the actor stands on the stage facing the audience.If the actor is facing up stage (toward the back wall), stage right and stage left are determined as if the actor were standing on the stage facing the audience. So the left side of the stage is always the left side. It doesn't change when the actor faces different directions. The right side of the stage is always the right side. It also doesn't change when the actor faces different directionsLink


Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Our little blob some have been watching for a few days entering stage right.

Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
Look I got a 50,000 acre fire going out here and I know that it does not compare to whats going on in Arizona. However what I do know is that we are losing water inches by inches daily out of Lake Okeechobee, and we need rain badly. I want to know where all the promised rain is this weekend, the smoke has been creating weird cloud formations and even Smoke Tornadoes
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1404. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'd be nice if CIMSS Tropical Cyclones would do a product archive back about 30 years or so that for systems like Hurricane Allen, one of the strongest hurricanes of all (190 mph), we could see what conditions were like for development.


You can always look at daily NCEP reanalysis composites for the time period when Allen was around. They will give you a decent idea of what was going on.

For example, here is the absolutely majestic 200mb wind structure around Allen while he was a Cat 5 in the northwest Caribbean. Absolutely beautiful.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Two days ago when Sunday was at 50% I said it would be down to 20% in 24 hours. Guess I was right. Thanks 94L for the letdown.

Take away the 10 to 20 percent chance of rain and add 10 to 15 degrees to the highs and you have my weather but you can keep the humidity. :)
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To whoever you posted the conditions that could make for a very active hurricane season earlier do you think its possible that we can see a Dennis/Emily type situation in July?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Using the Panama Rawinsonde it shows a wind shift to the NE at lower levels, the Hovmoller shows convection moving from right to left (westward) and the model data.

Thanks, It was just that I never read that before on the TWO.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting AussieStorm:

Oi..... I'm still here buddy, lol. I don't snore, well no that I know of. It needs to be a rain dance my friend.


Anyone else read this, anyone care to explain it to me.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THIS
WAVE WAS NEWLY INTRODUCED BASED UPON PANAMA RAWINSONDE TIME
SERIES...SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS...AND GFS-ECMWF MODEL
DIAGNOSTICS.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 240 NM W OF AXIS.


Using the Panama Rawinsonde it shows a wind shift to the NE at lower levels, the Hovmoller shows convection moving from right to left (westward) and the model data.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


little shaker red sea region
isnt that near the great rift? where part of africa is breaking away?
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1397. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


little shaker red sea region
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Quoting aquak9:
Please forgive the religious tone. I promised folks there'd be a rain dance, it turned more into a rain prayer. Too bad Aussie's already passed out, probably face first, snoring and drooling on the keyboard. From my blog:

Pulled up the cuke vines, found another coupla those ugly fat green horned caterpillars, and pulled up some corn.

Held the corn stalks up the sky, and prayed to God to bless us with some rain, thank you for all the miracles You've given this little garden, please bless us with some rain so that miracles like corn can continue to happen. I prayed loud, I prayed hard, I thanked God for the tomatoes, herbs, eggplant, beets, carrots, and peppers.

It's so rare that I ever ask God for anything. Mostly, I am thanking Him.

Very soon afterwards, it became horridly hot, and smoke billowed in. God wants me to have faith, I suppose, so I will.


The rains will come.

Oi..... I'm still here buddy, lol. I don't snore, well no that I know of. It needs to be a rain dance my friend.


Anyone else read this, anyone care to explain it to me.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THIS
WAVE WAS NEWLY INTRODUCED BASED UPON PANAMA RAWINSONDE TIME
SERIES...SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS...AND GFS-ECMWF MODEL
DIAGNOSTICS.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 240 NM W OF AXIS.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
1395. Grothar
We are going to play a quick game of racquetball and be back later. Have fun!
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1394. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
more typical june conditions now

quiet on the blogs i see
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1393. Patrap


.."Great Spirit,..come"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Quoting aquak9:
Please forgive the religious tone. I promised folks there'd be a rain dance, it turned more into a rain prayer. Too bad Aussie's already passed out, probably face first, snoring and drooling on the keyboard. From my blog:

Pulled up the cuke vines, found another coupla those ugly fat green horned caterpillars, and pulled up some corn.

Held the corn stalks up the sky, and prayed to God to bless us with some rain, thank you for all the miracles You've given this little garden, please bless us with some rain so that miracles like corn can continue to happen. I prayed loud, I prayed hard, I thanked God for the tomatoes, herbs, eggplant, beets, carrots, and peppers.

It's so rare that I ever ask God for anything. Mostly, I am thanking Him.

Very soon afterwards, it became horridly hot, and smoke billowed in. God wants me to have faith, I suppose, so I will.


The rains will come.


Hopefully.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Some web based training to view/listen during slow times:

Basic Satellite Imagery Interpretation in the Tropics
60 minutes


TC Intensity Model Guidance used by NHC 60 minutes


TC Track Model Guidance used by NHC 60 minutes
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
Quoting caneswatch:


I haven't fully checked it out. What's missing?


Several hurricanes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
1389. aquak9
Please forgive the religious tone. I promised folks there'd be a rain dance, it turned more into a rain prayer. Too bad Aussie's already passed out, probably face first, snoring and drooling on the keyboard. From my blog:

Pulled up the cuke vines, found another coupla those ugly fat green horned caterpillars, and pulled up some corn.

Held the corn stalks up the sky, and prayed to God to bless us with some rain, thank you for all the miracles You've given this little garden, please bless us with some rain so that miracles like corn can continue to happen. I prayed loud, I prayed hard, I thanked God for the tomatoes, herbs, eggplant, beets, carrots, and peppers.

It's so rare that I ever ask God for anything. Mostly, I am thanking Him.

Very soon afterwards, it became horridly hot, and smoke billowed in. God wants me to have faith, I suppose, so I will.


The rains will come.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26050
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good morning all
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I can't speak for elsewhere, but the skies around Naples are filling rapidly with tall, hard-edged cumulus congestus, so it appears at the moment that we'll see some showers today, if not more than that. The seabreeze front has already set up, however, so that may keep the good stuff too far inland to do most of us any good--though even the open waters have some towering cumulus clouds that are shooting up rapidly, then dissipating just as quickly. NWS says 40%; I'd go considerably higher than that.

[fingers crossed]


pot,

Thats awesome to hear! I miss the daily showers in SWFL. Im over here in Margate and a quick glance in your direction shows some clouds building up over the 'glades
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Quoting Grothar:



I had to play around with the filters on it for a bit and it's not bad. I did notice there is a lot missintg though.


I haven't fully checked it out. What's missing?
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Quoting Grothar:



I had to play around with the filters on it for a bit and it's not bad. I did notice there is a lot missintg though.


I think they just made it, and I know there is a lot missing, but you don't see me complaining.

Just kidding Hawk ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
1383. Grothar
Quoting caneswatch:


I got it bookmarked. Thanks Grothar!



I had to play around with the filters on it for a bit and it's not bad. I did notice there is a lot missintg though.
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wave at 50w seems to have a weak mid level circulation
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Our little blob some have been watching for a few days entering stage right.



It's stayed south the entire time. Interesting.
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Quoting Grothar:
This article was on BING MSN. Any of you fellow weather nerds will find this link interesting and useful. It provides graphics and histories of past storms and has archive data by dates.

Link


I got it bookmarked. Thanks Grothar!
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A tropical wave with a well-defined inverted V-signature is currently located around 50W. No development is expected right now, but it will be possible once it enters the Caribbean, and ultimately the western Caribbean.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.