Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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1479. pottery
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


He sent me pics. No one got out without blotter injuries.

Well, That should take the heat off me some....
heheheh
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24384
Its Currently raining in South Dade! See if it can come over to my area.
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1477. pottery
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


LOL...He's gonna get you for that!

Yeah. But thanks to Keeper, he will only have half of me to catch first.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24384
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nothing a good shot of geritol and some extra meds can't fix


He sent me pics. No one got out without blotter injuries.
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Quoting pottery:

I feel more sorry for the person who has to rush around pushing his wheelchair...


LOL...He's gonna get you for that!
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1473. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
which means half of you would be left

WHICH HALF OF ME ????

Oh, the Horrors at the thought!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24384
1472. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Is Grothar back from his racket brawl? It''s in the 90's down there. I worry about him. You know how those seniors get when things don't go their way. You should of seen him after a bingo game didn't go his way.
nothing a good shot of geritol and some extra meds can't fix
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1470. pottery
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Is Grothar back from his racket brawl? It''s in the 90's down there. I worry about him. You know how those seniors get when things don't go their way. You should of seen him after a bingo game didn't go his way.

I feel more sorry for the person who has to rush around pushing his wheelchair...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24384
Quoting IceCoast:
Not sure if this has been posted as it's a few days old, but very interesting regardless. A strong heat wave hit Wichita Kansas shortly after midnight June 9th sending temperatures soaring to over 100 degrees. This 15 to 20 degree temperature jump took place in a matter of 20-30 minutes. The NWS there has a great write up and explanation of this.
Link


Thats really cool
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1468. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting pottery:

About half the size of this Country.
which means half of you would be left
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1467. pottery
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24384
Is Grothar back from his racket brawl? It''s in the 90's down there. I worry about him. You know how those seniors get when things don't go their way. You should of seen him after a bingo game didn't go his way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not sure if this has been posted as it's a few days old, but very interesting regardless. A strong heat wave hit Wichita Kansas shortly after midnight June 9th sending temperatures soaring to over 100 degrees. This 15 to 20 degree temperature jump took place in a matter of 20-30 minutes. The NWS there has a great write up and explanation of this.
Link
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1464. pottery
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


It's a lazy Suunday afternoon. I'll take a chance on one more.


Love the "ping-pong pan" at the start there.
Great old music.
What is your Instrument of choice, Shen?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24384
1463. pottery
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The size of the Wallow fire now is approximately 694 square miles.

About half the size of this Country.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24384


It's a lazy Suunday afternoon. I'll take a chance on one more.
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The size of the Wallow fire now is approximately 694 square miles.
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1460. pottery
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Thanks pottery for bringing the radar from there as I didn't have it.

Its only been operational for a few months.
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Quoting Levi32:


I can only help out one at a time lol. I tried with 94L, but it didn't want to track farther west.


I'm not complaining, because I know we'll get our rain this season...we may end up with flooding by the end of hurricane season instead of drought.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32258
1458. pottery
.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24384
1457. Levi32
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
whaddaya mean Texas, we need the rain badly


I can only help out one at a time lol. I tried with 94L, but it didn't want to track farther west.
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1456. pottery
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Tom Rush's interpretation is probably the most well known. Johny Cash did a fine take on it as well.

Thanks. Will check them out.
Dont know how it happened, but that one passed me by.
Thought I had heard every Cash performance.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24384
whaddaya mean Texas, we need the rain badly
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Quoting Levi32:
Texas would be very happy to see this if it pans out in 10-15 days. The ECMWF ensembles are indicating a break in the tropical ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico by Day 10. If any kind of tropical moisture moves into place in that region, it's possible that it could move up and give Texas some water.



The GFS is consistent in showing some sort of low pressure area develop in that time frame.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32258
Quoting pottery:
Thanks for 'heads up' on that, BROHAVWX.

The Trinidad Radar is at

www.metoffice.gov.tt/satellite_imagery/radar.aspx


Thanks pottery for bringing the radar from there as I didn't have it.
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1451. pottery
Thanks, Hurrycane and Levi.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24384
1450. Levi32
Texas would be very happy to see this if it pans out in 10-15 days. The ECMWF ensembles are indicating a break in the tropical ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico by Day 10. If any kind of tropical moisture moves into place in that region, it's possible that it could move up and give Texas some water.

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Quoting pottery:
NICE ONE SHEN !!!

going to learn that one, fo' sho' !
Tom Rush's interpretation is probably the most well known. Johny Cash did a fine take on it as well.
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Quoting pottery:

Hope they have the right tires!
Maybe those off-road ones with lugs....

Only small area of rain but it's throwing it down.
Montreal Radar
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1445. JRRP
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1444. Levi32
The Bermuda High is more of a Bermuda Ridge, in reality. The Azores High is always the anchor of highest pressure in the Atlantic basin. The Bermuda High is basically a westward extension of that high pressure area into the western Atlantic, which is usually more of a ridge. The whole thing is often referred to as the Azores-Bermuda High.

June-September MSLP:

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1443. pottery
Quoting AussieStorm:
It's pouring with rain at the Canadian Formula 1 grand Prix in Montreal.

Hope they have the right tires!
Maybe those off-road ones with lugs....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24384
It's pouring with rain at the Canadian Formula 1 Grand Prix in Montreal. So much so the race has been red flagged.
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1440. pottery
Quoting Hurrykane:
Also troubling


THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 17N ALONG 15N6W 15N13W ACROSS GUINEA TO 8N17W
6N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N25W ALONG 5N39W 7N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-37W...AND WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 43W-47W.

I'm seeing the Azores High.
Where is the Bermuda High ?
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1439. Levi32
Quoting Cantu5977:
Is this what would you call a good environment to get something going?



That would be a very favorable setup for the southern Gulf of Mexico, yes. That is why I'm watching for that area to have something in it during the last week of the month. The GFS has been consistent on that kind of ridge developing.
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1437. Levi32
Quoting Hurrykane:
Also troubling


THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 17N ALONG 15N6W 15N13W ACROSS GUINEA TO 8N17W
6N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N25W ALONG 5N39W 7N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-37W...AND WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 43W-47W.


It will be interesting to see this map when Dekad 1 of June comes out in a couple days.

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1436. pottery
Quoting P451:
Antilles radar ending 1730z




Lookin' like DrySeason comeback, Man!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24384
Is this what would you call a good environment to get something going?

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Quoting Levi32:


Thank you very much for the info. Those instruments are definitely essential to have online, not only for Barbados but for other interests in the Caribbean that rely on the data that comes from Barbados. I hope you make some headway in getting people to fix those tools.


I am on the same thinking as Levi. Every radar that we can have from the islands is very important when tropical systems move thru.
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1432. pottery
NICE ONE SHEN !!!

going to learn that one, fo' sho' !
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24384
1431. Levi32
Most of the MJO ensemble systems are sniffing out phases 8, 1, and 2 by June 25th or so.

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We are now in a deficit of 10" here.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32258

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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