Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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1679. bappit
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Whoa, that would almost certainly give us Arlene if it meandered in the area for while.

It would be monsoonal in nature, I'm assuming?

Let's see ... 12 days out. Hmmmmm.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6106
Quoting BahaHurican:
AU and NZ flights are on hold because of the S American Volcano eruption.... what r the possible impacts from this quite large eruption? Especially considering that it seems the ash plume will be moving downwind towards the ATL....


Yep, its going to be tough to find a flight out of west Africa in a couple days if this keeps blowing ash
workers trying to fly back might want to prepare for this.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
A possible volcanic eruption in the Horn of Africa? 2011 has already had eruptions in Chile and Iceland, as well as droughts, flooding, earthquakes, wildfires, tsunamis, etc. in other places accross the world.
yeah no kidding, don't forget tornadoes and record snowfall and snowstorms
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting Bitmap7:
UPDATE 13/06 – 00:15 UTC : This is a very recent Google earth picture (combined with satellite cloud image). The size of the cloud is 150 km on 50 km!.



That's an old sat picture they have. Google Earth doesn't update as fast as Sat24, which is what I based my estimate on.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
AU and NZ flights are on hold because of the S American Volcano eruption.... what r the possible impacts from this quite large eruption? Especially considering that it seems the ash plume will be moving downwind towards the ATL....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22592
Seems no real media outlet has picked up on it as of yet. It erupted just after midnight local time. Eritrea was just in our news yesterday over the release of a few Brits held on 'spying' charges.

Sort of reminds you of Chaiten from a couple of years ago - dormant for near 10,000 years and then erupts.

Smithsonian guesstimates Nabro's last eruption was some point during the Holocene (our current epoch), but that's in italics (underlying the uncertainty) and it covers some 11,700 years.
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1672. Levi32
It is rather intriguing that this volcano, if it is the Nabro stratovolcano, has had no recorded eruptions. That makes it very unpredictable.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
1671. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Whoa, that would almost certainly give us Arlene if it meandered in the area for while.

It would be monsoonal in nature, I'm assuming?


Based on that kind of upper configuration I would think so, yes. A moisture invasion from the south. Of course, it's still a ways off.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
1670. Bitmap7
UPDATE 13/06 – 00:15 UTC : This is a very recent Google earth picture (combined with satellite cloud image). The size of the cloud is 150 km on 50 km!.

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Just a footnote to everybody's observations above:-
UPDATE 13/06 – 00:15 UTC : This is a very recent Google earth picture (combined with satellite cloud image). The size of the cloud is 150 km on 50 km!.


It's been an interesting night reading all of your comments! Thanks night everybody.
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Quoting Levi32:


Underneath that high, nearly zero.


Whoa, that would almost certainly give us Arlene if it meandered in the area for while.

It would be monsoonal in nature, I'm assuming?
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Closeup view of the ash plume.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think he meant 35km.


The horizontal extent of the ash plume looks to have exceeded 420 km, and may affect the Eritrean capital of Asmara. It is definitely located on the northern flank of the African wave train and can be seen interacting with their winds. This is definitely no ordinary pop-up thunderstorm.

Previous eruptions of the Nabro volcano had debris aimed in a WSW direction toward the present Eritrea-Ethiopia border. A nearby volcano (Mallahle) in Ethiopia holds the community of Aruku, which is located within a caldera.

The Nabro caldera is approximately 7 km (4.3 mi) across.

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1665. Levi32
Quoting PlazaRed:


If its blowing ash 50,000 ft in to the air on the scale of that sat images then this must be a massive explosive eruption.
This might cause all sorts of problems for air transport and more in your field, that amount of particles in the upper atmosphere must influence tropical weather quite a bit at least in the Africa area.


Any effects on the weather patterns there will depend on exactly how big the eruption is, which I guess we won't find out for a little while.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
1664. Bitmap7
UPDATE 23:46 UTC : We are now convinced that the erupting volcano is the Nabro volcano (an official confirmation is still missing)
UPDATE 23:16 UTC : As long as we have no confirmation of local authorities we have to guess on the name of the erupting volcano. Dubbi volcano is one scenario as his activity could be traced to 1861. Based on the coordinates of the beginning of the eruption as well as the location of a number of the more powerful earthquakes, Pieter De Leeuw (Netherlands) has traced the eruption as probably coming from the Nabro volcano, a crater with a diameter of 8 km. We agree with him. Nabro volcano has no records of recent eruptions.
UPDATE 23:10 UTC : According to Global Volcanism Program, both Nabro and Dubbi belong to the Bidu volcanic complex
UPDATE 22:59 UTC : Earthquake-report.com wants to know as fast as possible the situation in Afambo. The continuous earthquakes may have been damaging and depending the activity of the nearby Dubbi volcano, people in very nearby Afambo are at risk. We hope to receive OK signals soon, but as said earlier on, communications with this part of Eritrea will be very basic and it can take a while before the news reaches the outside world (if not cut off by the ongoing events).
UPDATE 22:45 UTC : This will be a very special volcano eruption because we expect that the eruption comes from the Dubbi volcano who had it’s latest recorded activity in 1861.
UPDATE 22:35 UTC : The following satellite picture clearly indicates that an eruption is going on in the area. Look at the upper right quarter. A point will gradually grow to a major cloud, which means that based on the scale the eruption is very huge.



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1663. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Do you know what the GFS is advertising, as far as shear goes, around that time frame?


Underneath that high, nearly zero.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
Quoting Levi32:
The 18z GFS is once again displaying a magnificent-looking 200mb high with great outflow jets around it centered over the Yucatan Peninsula by Day 12. This kind of a setup needs to be watched very closely, for if it comes to fruition, we will likely have an Arlene to worry about.



Do you know what the GFS is advertising, as far as shear goes, around that time frame?
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


That's horizontal distance.


sorry was off researching

yes surface miles NOT altitude LOL
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
A possible volcanic eruption in the Horn of Africa? 2011 has already had eruptions in Chile and Iceland, as well as droughts, flooding, earthquakes, wildfires, tsunamis, etc. in other places accross the world.
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Quoting Levi32:


The idea is to think of a "parcel" of sinking air, as it's easier to think of a small chunk of air than the entire airmass. That chunk of air shrinks in size as it sinks, like a snowball, if that's not a terrible analogy.


very simple explanation and much appreciated
thank you
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Quoting Cotillion:


Grimsvotn's eruption earlier this year managed around 65,000 ft.



350km? Enough to blast the ISS outta space? That would really be the end of the days.

Maybe not quite that high...


That's horizontal distance.
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Quoting Cotillion:


Grimsvotn's eruption earlier this year managed around 65,000 ft.



350km? Enough to blast the ISS outta space? That would really be the end of the days.

Maybe not quite that high...


I think he meant 35km.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24508
Quoting Levi32:
Based on model winds, that volcano is spewing ash upwards of 50000 feet at least, in order to get the plume to move WNW like that.


Grimsvotn's eruption earlier this year managed around 65,000 ft.

Quoting PcolaDan:
In this sat picture you can see the plume clearly on the right side just above the horn. My best guess is that the plume is about 350 km now.



350km? Enough to blast the ISS outta space? That would really be the end of the days.

Maybe not quite that high...
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Quoting Levi32:
Based on model winds, that volcano is spewing ash upwards of 50000 feet at least, in order to get the plume to move WNW like that.


If its blowing ash 50,000 ft in to the air on the scale of that sat images then this must be a massive explosive eruption.
This might cause all sorts of problems for air transport and more in your field, that amount of particles in the upper atmosphere must influence tropical weather quite a bit at least in the Africa area.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




Definitely got low to mid level circ going on. Upper level winds pushing off building tops though. Interesting little feature, particularly position. Waters barely sustainable, if at all. Don't see much low-level flow.
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In this sat picture you can see the plume clearly on the right side just above the horn. My best guess is that the plume is about 350 km now.

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1652. Levi32
Based on model winds, that volcano is spewing ash upwards of 50000 feet at least, in order to get the plume to move WNW like that.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
Patrap, thanks for the info.
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1650. Levi32
I don't see how this can't be an eruption. That definitely must be one on IR satellite.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
Could the eruption of the Nabro? Volcano have an effect on African tropical wave development as the ash enters latitudes that typically spawn pre-Atlantic hurricanes? This volcano looks like a big water vapor emitter, and further effects such as ash-induced lightning (a good predictor of strong CV hurricanes when seen west of Africa) and the butterfly effect could play a major role.

Nabro is located very close to Ethiopia's giant Erta Ale volcanic complex, an area surrounded completely by a basin below sea level, as clearly illustrated on the USGS maps. This is an area likely to see increased activity in the coming decades and centuries, based on my inferences of volcanic activity patterns worldwide and sea level fluctuations. Already, seawater is entering into central Eritrea, on its 15-million year journey across the African Rift that will eventually split Africa into two.

This will be a major area to watch. If Nabro is indeed the source of the ash plume seen on sat24, then this is a stratovolcano that has never erupted in recorded history. A nearby volcano has erupted historically, but today, a single near-equatorial volcano in one of the East African Rift's most active regions has the ability to change weather across the African continent.
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looks like the earthquake and the eruption are related... that plume started showing up very shortly indeed after the shake, rattle and roll.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22592
Quoting CybrTeddy:
No rain for hillsborough.. as expected. Polk gets all the action in CFL.


Evening All.

Glad areas are getting much needed rain. Unfortunately I was in the 70% not to get rain this evening. Nice little rain free box around our area, maybe tomorrow? Good sign though as 30% exists all week.


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Magnitude
5.7
Date-Time
Sunday, June 12, 2011 at 21:03:23 UTC
Monday, June 13, 2011 at 12:03:23 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
13.530°N, 41.625°E
Depth
9.9 km (6.2 miles)
Region
ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
Distances
133 km (82 miles) WNW of Assab, Eritrea
200 km (124 miles) SW of Al Hudaydah, Yemen
233 km (144 miles) E of Mekele, Ethiopia
353 km (219 miles) SE of ASMARA, Eritrea


Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1643. Maybe the rainy season is here with a vengeance. I wouldn't know, all the rain is away from Hillsborough county, over Polk and Orlando.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24508
Quoting barbamz:


Yes, Dan. But unfortunately since THE END finally seems near, probably no webcams to watch it in this very poor and hopefully quite unpopulated region...


It will be difficult to get any information from there, small population with limited resources.

The Afambo region of Eritrea: (paraphrased from Wikipedia)

Afambo is one of the 29 woredas in the Afar Region of Ethiopia.

about 22.33% of the total population has access to drinking water

this woreda has a total population of 24,153, of whom 13,312 are men and 10,841 women; with an area of 1,258.97 square kilometers
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
From the Miami Herald:

Hail and strong winds pelted down on southwest Broward County Sunday afternoon in what forecasters described as an unusual weather occurrence in residential areas.

It all began about 3:30 p.m. with initial reports of pea-sized hail just south of Miramar, near the intersection of Interstate 75 and Florida's Turnpike, said meteorologist David Ross with the National Weather Service.

The strong storm moved north, and took expanding hail with it.

By 3:45 p.m., the weather service had reports of quarter-sized hail in Miramar, followed by word of golf ball-sized hail in Davie and Weston. Residents called began calling to report hail in their backyards.


SPC has several reports of 1.75" hail. We don't generally grow them that big down here.

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Satellite loop of "cloud" or "plume" growing over Eritrea

http://www.sat24.com/en/et
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Just had a look at one of the links and this volcano has a very large crater:-
Quoted, Pieter De Leeuw (Netherlands) has traced the eruption as probably coming from the Nabro volcano, a crater with a diameter of 8 km,''
Although it is in a remote part of the world it is also very near major shipping lanes so reports of activity would probably be very accurate, apparently one of its recorded eruptions had lave going near to the sea and its of the same type as Mt St. Helen's!
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1640. Patrap
Quoting Tarpville:


Please let me know what used to claim victory over fleas because I don't think our dogs have ever had fleas like they currently have this year!!! I'm assuming that the fleas are more prevailing because it has been so dry, but I would sure love to claim victory as well.




www.flea.net

Plus ADAMS brand Flea Spray for after the Dogs are Shampooed
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from earthquake-report.com

UPDATE 23:16 UTC : As long as we have no confirmation of local authorities we have to guess on the name of the erupting volcano. Dubbi volcano is one scenario as his activity could be traced to 1861. Based on the coordinates of the beginning of the eruption as well as the location of a number of the more powerful earthquakes, Pieter De Leeuw (Netherlands) has traced the eruption as probably coming from the Nabro volcano, a crater with a diameter of 8 km. We agree with him. Nabro volcano has no records of recent eruptions.
UPDATE 22:59 UTC : Earthquake-report.com wants to know as fast as possible the situation in Afambo. The continuous earthquakes may have been damaging and depending the activity of the nearby Dubbi volcano, people in very nearby Afambo are at risk. We hope to receive OK signals soon, but as said earlier on, communications with this part of Eritrea will be very basic and it can take a while before the news reaches the outside world (if not cut off by the ongoing events).
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1638. Levi32
The general bubbling forth of heat is evident on the ensemble mean by Day 12 as well:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
1637. barbamz
Quoting PcolaDan:


Hi Barb. This could get interesting.


Yes, Dan. But unfortunately since THE END finally seems near, probably no webcams to watch it in this very poor and hopefully quite unpopulated region...
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Appears that this volcano (Nabro?) hasn't gone off in a long while, but records are probably shaky considering its location.
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1635. Levi32
The 18z GFS is once again displaying a magnificent-looking 200mb high with great outflow jets around it centered over the Yucatan Peninsula by Day 12. This kind of a setup needs to be watched very closely, for if it comes to fruition, we will likely have an Arlene to worry about.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
No rain for hillsborough.. as expected. Polk gets all the action in CFL.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24508
1633. Patrap
Looks like Dubbi went das ka-boom as the co-ordinates are very close.

List of volcanoes in Eritrea
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Quoting barbamz:
Your next tropical wave might be mixed with some volcano stuff. Seems to be a larger eruption in Eritrea.
http://sat24.com/et?ir=True
Follow the Eruptions Blog:
http://bigthink.com/ideas/38811#comments
O.K. I've just seen, Dan was quicker. Hi, Dan!


Hi Barb. This could get interesting.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Patrap:
..the sound of 4 thousands fleas dying in the yard was moving.

I claim victory.


Please let me know what used to claim victory over fleas because I don't think our dogs have ever had fleas like they currently have this year!!! I'm assuming that the fleas are more prevailing because it has been so dry, but I would sure love to claim victory as well.
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Those ERITREA quakes are all about at an average of 10 km/ 6/miles depth but spread over quite a bit of area, could indicate something bigger than just a simple eruption, very big ash/smoke plume.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yep looks pretty big too, how long has that plume been there?

Here's a short animation. Pretty obvious:

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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