Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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1729. Patrap



Eritrea from Sea Level
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Quoting Patrap:


Khartoum, we have a problem.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
That's it!
I'm going in on the partnership to buy mayan2012.com
.
Not sure what I'll do with the profits....


...an early ride to the Mars colony? ;)
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1726. Patrap
Quoting presslord:
For what it's worth: Harold Camping has had a stroke...



God's a Phunny lady..
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1724. Patrap


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Quoting Levi32:
Supposedly the 1861 eruption of Dubbi is thought to be the reason behind an anomalously cold northern hemisphere summer in 1862. Link


That's great. Perhaps we'll get something to balance out additional warming during the solar maximum after all. Also the Russian heatwave and fires appear to be returning.
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Can't verify, but reports of double harmonic tremors now at Katlavolcano in Iceland, too.
That's it!
I'm going in on the partnership to buy mayan2012.com
.
Not sure what I'll do with the profits....
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Quoting Levi32:
Supposedly the 1861 eruption of Dubbi is thought to be the reason behind an anomalously cold northern hemisphere summer in 1862. Link


thanks for the link, hope it ant so
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For what it's worth: Harold Camping has had a stroke...
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Quoting Levi32:


It's probably far too early to make an assessment like that. We need an official geological report, which we probably won't get for a while.


Difficult place to get to it's so isolated. Going to have to hope someone can get some flyovers. Can't wait to see when daylight comes. Hopefully get a better idea of what is really happening.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1718. Patrap
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Thanks, I've added that information to the Wikipedia article.



...Which is also info that I added. :)


That's right, I forgot you edit Wikipedia. I gave up on doing it, not really good at doing that. I would update the storms' intensity last year going off of ATCF, which we know is official, but people would revert it.

Oh well.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31518
1716. Bitmap7

now kissing sudan...
http://www.sat24.com/include/images/trans.png
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Spathy......nice work.
Might have saved me from 24 hours in the cooler....lol
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Can't verify, but reports of double harmonic tremors now at Katla volcano in Iceland, too.
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there was a 5.7 mag earthquake near there at 12:03 AM local time
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Quoting HurricaneDevo:
This is one of the few pieces of information I can find on Nabro. Perhaps some of the more scientific minded can explain the size of this volcano, perhaps in relation to the yellowstone caldera?

"Large magnitude silicic volcanism in north Afar: the Nabro Volcanic Range and Ma'alalta volcano
Wiart, Pierre; Oppenheimer, Clive
Bulletin of Volcanology, Volume 67, Issue 2, pp.99-115

Much of the volcanological work carried out in north Afar (Ethiopia and Eritrea) has focused on the nature of Quaternary basaltic volcanic ranges, which have been interpreted by some as incipient oceanic ridges. However, we show here that comparable volumes of silicic magmas have been erupted in the region. In particular, the virtually undocumented Nabro Volcanic Range, which runs NNE for more than 100 km from the margin of the Danakil Depression to the Red Sea coast, has a subaerial volume of the order of 550 km3, comparable to the volume of the much better known Erta’Ale axial volcanic range. Nabro volcano itself forms part of an enigmatic double caldera structure with a neighbouring volcano, Mallahle. The twin caldera may have formed simultaneously with the eruption of between 20 and 100 km3 of ignimbrite, which is readily identified in Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery. This may have been the largest explosive eruption in north Afar, and is certain to have deposited a regionally distributed tephra layer which could in the future be located in distal sections as a stratigraphic marker. An integrated analysis of optical and synthetic aperture radar imagery, digital topographic data, field observations and limited geochemical measurements, permits here descriptions and first order inferences about the structure, stratigraphy and compositions of several major volcanoes of the Afar Triangle, and a reappraisal of their regional significance. "


Thanks, I've added that information to the Wikipedia article.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


From Wikipedia:

Despite having undergone no eruptions in recent history, the Nabro Volcano likely erupted shortly after midnight on June 13, 2011 local time, after a series of earthquakes in the Eritrea-Ethiopia border region, ranging up to magnitude 5.7. The ash plume was observed on satellite drifting to the west-northwest along the border, and spanned about 50 km wide and several hundred kilometres across in the hours immediately following the reported eruption.


...Which is also info that I added. :)
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Quoting Neapolitan:

If the WunderMap is to be believed, the origination point of the plume is, indeed, the Nabro volcano.

As I said, the sun will light the scene in less than an hour and a half, so we should be able to see much more then...


From Wikipedia:

Despite having undergone no eruptions in recent history, the Nabro Volcano likely erupted shortly after midnight on June 13, 2011 local time, after a series of earthquakes in the Eritrea-Ethiopia border region, ranging up to magnitude 5.7. The ash plume was observed on satellite drifting to the west-northwest along the border, and spanned about 50 km wide and several hundred kilometres across in the hours immediately following the reported eruption.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31518
1709. Levi32
Supposedly the 1861 eruption of Dubbi is thought to be the reason behind an anomalously cold northern hemisphere summer in 1862. Link
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26556
Loop of ash plume. Is still very active.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14050
Quoting emcf30:


On Google Earth with the Satellite overlay on, the plume appears to be coming from a area called the Mat Ala crater. This is about 15.95 SSE of the Dubbi Volcano. The icon on G.E is named Nabro but when you click on it it states it mislabeled. There are at least 40 volcanoes in the immediate area lined up on the African Rift Vallet. For what it is worth.

If the WunderMap is to be believed, the origination point of the plume is, indeed, the Nabro volcano (EDIT: if not a new vent five miles or less to the east of Nabro's primary caldera).

As I said, the sun will light the scene in less than an hour and a half, so we should be able to see much more then...
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1704. Levi32
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
I say we could be looking at a VEI 5-6 eruption, similar to the Mount Pinatubo eruption of 1991 that cooled global temperatures by 0.2C for about a year. The main prehistorical eruption that created both calderas was probably a high-end VEI 6 eruption.


It's probably far too early to make an assessment like that. We need an official geological report, which we probably won't get for a while.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26556
1703. Patrap
Maybe the Mayans were right.
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According to the WunderMap, the ash/smoke plume extends 250 miles (400 km) to the northwest, and is approximately 80 miles (130 km) wide.

So far; the current event appears to be ongoing, as satellite shows no thinning of the plume at the source.
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1701. emcf30
Quoting aquak9:
P'cola- I wandered around a Freeper (?) site, looks like they pegged it, it's Nabro or Dubbi. Dubbi in 1861? not real sure.
Wonder how long, how hard, it's gonna erupt, or if others are going to join in.

thanks for the info on Khartoum.


On Google Earth with the Satellite overlay on, the plume appears to be coming from a area called the Mat Ala crater. This is about 15.95 SSE of the Dubbi Volcano. The icon on G.E is named Nabro but when you click on it it states it mislabeled. There are at least 40 volcanoes in the immediate area lined up on the African Rift Valley. For what it is worth.
Link
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Quoting troy1993:
Do you guys think that if a major hurricane were to hit the U.S this year that the Weather Channel will still go into its traditional Storm Alert mode?


They should, they've been doing it for a long time now. The best music was the 2008 one.

http://youtu.be/6B73AQbcjE8
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31518
I say we could be looking at a VEI 5-6 eruption, similar to the Mount Pinatubo eruption of 1991 that cooled global temperatures by 0.2C for about a year. The main prehistorical eruption that created both calderas was probably a high-end VEI 6 eruption.
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Quoting Patrap:
Dubbi





Nabro from orbit



That was a mean looking peace of rock
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1697. Patrap
Uploaded by rvermill47 on Jun 12, 2011

After getting multiple earthquake reports centered in Ethiopia I suspected a potential volcanic eruption. This has not been verified, but looks to be Nabro, a volcano that has no recent eruption data.
*Satellite data is copyright of www.sat24.com*


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1696. Patrap
Dubbi





Nabro from orbit

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
now we need locust and wormwood


Nice catch Keeper, when they say the astroid is going to hit?
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1694. Patrap
Pray tell nothing is coming unzipped,....on a larger scale with the others in the vicinity.


Volcanoes of Eritrea

Jalua

Alid

Dubbi

Nabro

Assab

Gufa

Mousa All


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Do you guys think that if a major hurricane were to hit the U.S this year that the Weather Channel will still go into its traditional Storm Alert mode?
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1692. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
now we need locust and wormwood
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The WunderMap shows it in much greater detail, allowing pinpointing the source. Definitely appears to be Nabro...

Sunrise in Assab is 5:42 AM local, or roughly 90 minutes from now (10:42 PM EDT).
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Speaking of sat images: Pinatubo

The Philippines had the misfortune of both having a big eruption and a typhoon hitting them on the same day. Nothing else formed for about a month during June (which is still sort of an early month in the WPac season anyway), but the rest of the season was fine.

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Thanks Cosmic for the link!
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Seems too unpredictable to forecast this volcanic ejection in Eritrea as it relates to the tropical weather. It could just as easily be negative as positive, and close to neutral is possible as well. For some guidance, here's the hurricane season of 1861, when a nearby volcano blew.
.
.
.
.
Link
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1687. aquak9
P'cola- I wandered around a Freeper (?) site, looks like they pegged it, it's Nabro or Dubbi. Dubbi in 1861? not real sure.
Wonder how long, how hard, it's gonna erupt, or if others are going to join in.

thanks for the info on Khartoum.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25758
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm wondering how far west that plume would be likely to drift.... guess it would depend on the composition thereof. I'm also wondering if a plume of ash making its way into the ATL along with whatever AEWs are propogating Wward would not have an effect similar to that of SAL dust.... pure speculation, of course.


Dont know, but i would think it would have to be an ungodly amount of ash to really have that kind of effect in the atlantic, like you said pure speculation.
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Below you can see how much it has spread in just under 2 hours. Also it shows how I came up with my distance, comparing geographic points. The red dot in the upper left of the first 2 pics is Khartoum, Sudan with population about 5 million. That puts it about 650 km away from the leading edge of the ash, if in fact that is what we are seeing. There is NO confirmed report yet due to time there plus it's isolated spot.






Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1684. bappit
12 days out is like watching phantoms.
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This is one of the few pieces of information I can find on Nabro. Perhaps some of the more scientific minded can explain the size of this volcano, perhaps in relation to the yellowstone caldera?

"Large magnitude silicic volcanism in north Afar: the Nabro Volcanic Range and Ma'alalta volcano
Wiart, Pierre; Oppenheimer, Clive
Bulletin of Volcanology, Volume 67, Issue 2, pp.99-115

Much of the volcanological work carried out in north Afar (Ethiopia and Eritrea) has focused on the nature of Quaternary basaltic volcanic ranges, which have been interpreted by some as incipient oceanic ridges. However, we show here that comparable volumes of silicic magmas have been erupted in the region. In particular, the virtually undocumented Nabro Volcanic Range, which runs NNE for more than 100 km from the margin of the Danakil Depression to the Red Sea coast, has a subaerial volume of the order of 550 km3, comparable to the volume of the much better known Erta’Ale axial volcanic range. Nabro volcano itself forms part of an enigmatic double caldera structure with a neighbouring volcano, Mallahle. The twin caldera may have formed simultaneously with the eruption of between 20 and 100 km3 of ignimbrite, which is readily identified in Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery. This may have been the largest explosive eruption in north Afar, and is certain to have deposited a regionally distributed tephra layer which could in the future be located in distal sections as a stratigraphic marker. An integrated analysis of optical and synthetic aperture radar imagery, digital topographic data, field observations and limited geochemical measurements, permits here descriptions and first order inferences about the structure, stratigraphy and compositions of several major volcanoes of the Afar Triangle, and a reappraisal of their regional significance. "
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Quoting blsealevel:


Yep, its going to be tough to find a flight out of west Africa in a couple days if this keeps blowing ash
workers trying to fly back might want to prepare for this.
I'm wondering how far west that plume would be likely to drift.... guess it would depend on the composition thereof. I'm also wondering if a plume of ash making its way into the ATL along with whatever AEWs are propogating Wward would not have an effect similar to that of SAL dust.... pure speculation, of course.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21537
1681. aquak9
Volcano. No real news, etc out of the area? considering the time, and the demographics of that area, no surprise.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25758
1680. Levi32
Quoting bappit:

Let's see ... 12 days out. Hmmmmm.


It's a piece to a puzzle. I've been expressing interest in the last week of June for the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico region for a while, based on the likelyhood that the MJO will be back over our area of the world by that time, and some of the models have become insistent on an upper ridge ballooning over the region in response. The configuration of that ridge suggests monsoonal invasion into the western Caribbean or Yucatan area.

It is something to watch closely over the next week, as that kind of pattern could breed a noteworthy tropical disturbance.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26556
1679. bappit
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Whoa, that would almost certainly give us Arlene if it meandered in the area for while.

It would be monsoonal in nature, I'm assuming?

Let's see ... 12 days out. Hmmmmm.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.