Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

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1264. Grothar
3:34 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
1263. StAugustineFL
3:12 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
totally socked in from smoke- less than two block visibility here in downtown Jacksonville.

must be fires nearby? and no air movement...it got real bad, real quick.


Hey Aqua, it's from the Espanola fire in northwest Flagler county.


Smoke from the Espanola wildfire is impacting the Jacksonville
Metro area this morning...

Smoke from the Espanola wildfire in Flagler County has drifted
northward up the St Johns River basin and is impacting the
Jacksonville Metro area this morning. A strong smell of smoke along
with visibilities of 2 to 4 miles will be common through the early
afternoon hours until the Atlantic sea breeze pushes the smoke
inland and west of the Metro area.

Also shows up quite well on visible sat.
Link
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 837
1262. nrtiwlnvragn
3:11 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
OLD BLOG
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11342
1261. pottery
3:09 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
I completely forgot to say---

The Calabash tree shed all it's remaining leaves in a Frantic Leaf-Storm on the 6th. BOOM!
The next day, June 7, it was covered with small green leaves.

Ergo-
The Rainy Season OFFICIALLY began on JUNE 7th, 2011.

(everything that happened before that date, was Pre-Season).

It will rain in Florida, Texas, all over, very soon.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24878
1260. DookiePBC
3:09 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
I'm looking at the maps in motion and find myself doing a Carlton Fisk trying to will the clouds west and into South Florida. So far, it hasn't worked...and my arms are getting tired.
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
1259. islander101010
3:08 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting iahishome:


Hi Il,

It really depends on the path. From my understanding, these East Pacific Hurricanes really take themselves out of prime area as they West and North. At some point after they weaken, they are usually picked up by a trough and remnants are scattered over the South Western US.

In my experience, 90% of the time, the most you'll get is some afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts, but sometimes, a powerful hurricane can get picked up quickly enough to remain somewhat together. I remember the only Tropical Depression to actually hit southern California in my lifetime in 1977 (or maybe 1978), so it does happen.
usually they move toward hi in a weaken state
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5001
1258. weaverwxman
3:05 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
everyone get one of these and maybe we can pump the ridge
Member Since: November 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
1257. BahaHurican
3:03 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Morning all.... quick lookin to say,

WHOOHOO!!!! It finally rained last night!!!! I haven't checked totals yet, but I'm sure we got at least an inch overnight here on New Providence. The cloud cover from 94L is still around, keeping it cool [hopefully for the rest of the day]. Hopefully this means we have started the rainy season, but not the flood season... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22727
1256. caneswatch
3:03 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Game 5 tonight... who is going to lead the series 3 games to 2?? I pick the Canucks :)








Um, they got completely embarrassed in Boston and now Boston has the momentum, so it ain't gonna happen :)
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1255. sailfish01
3:02 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Anyone thinking 94L will give some rain to FL? Looks like it all going to go east to me.
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
1254. iahishome
3:01 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting ILwthrfan:
How much moisture will Adrian pump into the Southwest and west Texas?


Hi Il,

It really depends on the path. From my understanding, these East Pacific Hurricanes really take themselves out of prime area as they West and North. At some point after they weaken, they are usually picked up by a trough and remnants are scattered over the South Western US.

In my experience, 90% of the time, the most you'll get is some afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts, but sometimes, a powerful hurricane can get picked up quickly enough to remain somewhat together. I remember the only Tropical Depression to actually hit southern California in my lifetime in 1977 (or maybe 1978), so it does happen.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 501
1253. goavs4
2:59 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Wow, what an impressive storm (even though the cloud tops are now warming)

Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
1252. aquak9
2:58 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting Jax82:


All clear here at 95/Old St Aug Rd. Small fires have been poppin up everywhere.

are you kidding?? ya'll are clear down there? That's crazy.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 177 Comments: 26633
1251. NICycloneChaser
2:56 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I'm doing some serious wish casting today. I'm about 100 miles WNW :-)


Haha, here's hoping it wraps some convection round to its west.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1249. ProgressivePulse
2:54 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


By the time it reaches low shear, SSTs will be decreasing pretty quickly, might be warm enough to become sub-tropical but I don't think it will have time to sit in low shear before it get's kicked back into the north of the Atlantic.


I'm doing some serious wish casting today. I'm about 100 miles WNW :-)
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
1248. aquak9
2:54 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
eyewall- it's funny, those ones have been kinda kicking, kinda smoldering for days...it's been a little hazy all week but now we are totally socked in. I'm on the 8th floor, and can barely see the road below, now.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 177 Comments: 26633
1247. Walshy
2:54 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Statement as of 1:25 am EDT on June 10, 2011
... Record high temperature equalled in Chattanooga...
The record high temperature of 97 degrees was tied at Lovell Field in Chattanooga yesterday.

The record was previously set in 1898.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 907
1246. nrtiwlnvragn
2:50 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
totally socked in from smoke- less than two block visibility here in downtown Jacksonville.

must be fires nearby? and no air movement...it got real bad, real quick.


Espanola fire to your south. Not nearby but GOES visible shows it as the source.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11342
1245. HurricaneHunterJoe
2:48 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
1244. NICycloneChaser
2:47 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Currently in deadly wind shear but, lower is on the way.




By the time it reaches low shear, SSTs will be decreasing pretty quickly, might be warm enough to become sub-tropical but I don't think it will have time to sit in low shear before it get's kicked back into the north of the Atlantic.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1243. ElConando
2:47 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Message Date: Jun 10 2011 13:38:23 12z MIA SOUNDING (06/10/11) EQUIL LEVEL 46506, CAPE 3133, PWAT 1.78, 500 MLB TEM P -9.1C, HGT OF WET BULB 11829, LI INDEX -8.26, FRZ LEVEL 14433. THERE IS A SLIG HT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-75. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE O F PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH TODAY.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
1241. ProgressivePulse
2:44 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Currently in deadly wind shear but, lower is on the way.


Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
1240. ProgressivePulse
2:43 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Good 850V with that Andros AOI.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
1239. NICycloneChaser
2:40 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting ElConando:


Looking back, the anomaly was freaky high back in 05. There is certainly more now than last year but at that same Token SST's in general are lower across the basin.


True, they are, however there was a bit of a cool area down there this time last year too:





Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1238. ILwthrfan
2:39 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting MoltenIce:

Annular anyone?


It'll start a debate, but Levi pointed out some annular characteristics yesterday, maybe this is how the hurricane has achieved this status despite not having perfect conditions underneath it, because it was ingesting dry air yesterday and just seem to sculf at it.

Time will tell, I do believe annular hurricanes have more of a tendency of maintaining a strong structure well within sea surface tempertures lower than the 80 degree threshold.

Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1540
1237. aquak9
2:39 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
totally socked in from smoke- less than two block visibility here in downtown Jacksonville.

must be fires nearby? and no air movement...it got real bad, real quick.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 177 Comments: 26633
1236. ElConando
2:38 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting MoltenIce:
I'm surprised Alex wasn't retired, it did cause billions of dollars worth of damages.


Retirement usually depends on the countries input. Mexico didn't request one, so nothing happened.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
1235. OrchidGrower
2:38 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Buhdog, I experienced the same thing on the North Gulf Coast after Hurricane Frederic in 1979. Two years of historic, unprecedented heat and drought afterwards; tornadoes dropping from the sky almost every year (we'd only had a tornado scare once in my entire teenage lifetime, prior); stunning spring floods back to back. Like you, I just wanted things to go back to the way they used to be!
Member Since: September 24, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 398
1234. CybrTeddy
2:37 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting swapilot:
I wonder how many "first Hurricane of the season" have been a major?


Hurricane Alex of 2004 to name an example.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
1233. NICycloneChaser
2:36 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting MoltenIce:
I'm surprised Alex wasn't retired, it did cause billions of dollars worth of damages.


The affected country has to request that it is retired, some serious ones just aren't, for some reason. Most notable is probably Hurricane Emily, which, unless seasonal forecasts are very, very wrong, we'll see again this year. I was actually suprised Matthew of last year wasn't retired, $2.6 billion damage and 126 direct fatalities.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1232. ElConando
2:35 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Just in case nobody has already noticed, check out the Gulf of Guinea in June 2005.




Seems like good evidence that a cool Gulf of Guinea can lead to an active hurricane season. Waters down there were much cooler at this stage in 2005 though.


Looking back, the anomaly was freaky high back in 05. There is certainly more now than last year but at that same Token SST's in general are lower across the basin.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
1231. ILwthrfan
2:34 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
How much moisture will Adrian pump into the Southwest and west Texas?
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1540
1230. ProgressivePulse
2:32 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
That is a rather interesting feature just east of Andros

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
1229. MoltenIce
2:32 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
I'm surprised Alex wasn't retired, it did cause billions of dollars worth of damages.
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 784
1228. NICycloneChaser
2:30 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting MoltenIce:
Alex 2010 was pretty close to being a major hurricane.


Pesky 'Hurricane Alex's.... Wonder how he'll do in 2016.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1227. MoltenIce
2:28 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


The last such occurance was the 2004 Atlantic season, when Hurricane Alex reached category 3, in early August.
The last time it happened in the East Pacific was 2002, with category 3 Hurricane Alma, in late June.
Alex 2010 was pretty close to being a major hurricane.
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 784
1226. ProgressivePulse
2:27 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Here is the RUC model @ 18hrs

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
1225. NICycloneChaser
2:27 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting swapilot:
I wonder how many "first Hurricane of the season" have been a major?


The last such occurance was the 2004 Atlantic season, when Hurricane Alex reached category 3, in early August.
The last time it happened in the East Pacific was 2002, with category 3 Hurricane Alma, in late June.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1224. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:26 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
WTPN31 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 012
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
0900 UTC FRI JUN 10 2011


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 106.5W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 106.5W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 106.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.3N 107.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.7N 109.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.3N 112.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 106.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z.//
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56020
1223. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:26 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
WDPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (SARIKA) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 35NM TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED
ON THE IR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON A 996MB SHIP OBSERVATION 40 NM AWAY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. TS SARIKA
IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE STEERING RIDGE
AXIS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL EAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. DUE TO THE MODERATE VWS, TS 05W SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY
BEFORE LAND INTERACTION CAUSES THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC
FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56020
1222. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:25 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
WTIO21 PGTW 092230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
REISSUED//REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082221JUN2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 18.4N 70.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 092032Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 70.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 18.7N
69.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 70.3E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE LLCC WITH A
SHALLOWER AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST. A 09/1651Z METOP-A 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. A 09/1714Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A STRONG (30-35
KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN QUADRANTS. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAVORABLE ZONAL
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE
SUPPRESSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM INTO THE HIMALAYAS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
SUBSIDENCE. THE 09/12Z UPPER AIR STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS
SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF 10-20 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC IS GRADUALLY DRIFTING EASTWARD WITHIN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT MUMBAI,
INDIA HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 100O MB DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
MAXIMIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18-23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. DUE TO CONTINUED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
102230Z.//
NNNN

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56020
1221. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:24 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
T.C.F.W.
01E/MH/A/C4
MARK
15.43N/107.6W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56020
1220. ProgressivePulse
2:23 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
12ZNAM @ 30hrs.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
1218. MoltenIce
2:17 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

Annular anyone?
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 784
1217. swapilot
2:15 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
I wonder how many "first Hurricane of the season" have been a major?
Member Since: September 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
1216. BoyntonBeachFL
2:14 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Anyone see a spin North of Andros, east of Miami on the radar?
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
1215. ElConando
2:11 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Game 5 tonight... who is going to lead the series 3 games to 2?? I pick the Canucks :)








Make sure you have your crow cooked extra crispy otherwise :P
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
1214. Chicklit
2:10 PM GMT on June 10, 2011
Levi's blog explains The Gulf of Guinea cooling and how that impacts Cape Verde generated storms very well for us 'regular folks.' Just adding that the higher the ICTZ the easier it is for spin to occur (away from the equator).
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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