Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

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Id say there is a 75% chance we may see this go to cat-5 tonight
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
863. 1344
Starting to look a lot like a Cat 5. do you think it will be updgraded?
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Adrian about to Raise his Hackles.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Note the dark red ring around the edge of the CDO/Eyewall



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
859. srada
Quoting PcolaDan:


LOL!! Im sure that will be posted a lot on the blog this season..
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Adrian Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
But back to Adrian and 94L.
Super Storms!

Adrian is not particularly large and is in no danger of coming ashore and has kept getting stronger all the time pretty fast!

94L has been around for ever. (someone mentioned Karen, last night)
I hope that Cuba and Haiti dont get too many MORE Horrors out of it.

Incredible start to the Season!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24236
Quoting PcolaDan:


Are you getting that confused with Goethe U?



Thats funny
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
94L

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
854. SLU
This is the best example since the turn of the century.

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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, E, it's called "Groth U"

My bad. I somehow had the School of Rock stuck in my head
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, E, it's called "Groth U"


Are you getting that confused with Goethe U?

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
feeling really lucky tonight. I am under that tiny little cell above TAMPA and getting torrential downpours. It is so so needed, but so isolated.

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849. SLU
Not more than 5 times in every decade do we get to see an annular hurricane.

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848. Jax82
Hurricane Adrian looks absolutely stunning tonight, kinda like a truck tire.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
Phew...My toys went away for a minute and I almost panicked.



That's cool.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting pottery:

True.
By the time the swells get to California as southwesterly swells it should be a blast there.


Oh yes it will be. San Diego to LA, maybe even a bit more north, will be getting them.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
843. SLU
This is almost as good as it gets

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842. 1344
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The MJO will be returning to our basin at the end of June and especially into the first of July. We'll probably see our first named storm then. It is forecast to stick for most of July, and I think we will finish up the month with about two or three storms.



Additionally, every week or so, when tropical waves come off Africa, they seem to have a more distinctive spin with them. I think we may see a Cape Verde system in July also, like Bertha of 2008.

We'll probaly have 3 named storms in July. Untill late June, I guess we'll just be able to track EPAC storms.
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Quoting PcolaDan:

I had one of those!
But my wife fastened a knife to the hand.
Sort of lost it's charm after that...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24236
Quoting Patrap:


Looks like a 5!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25996
Quoting PcolaDan:
A Cantore tweet:

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
If Matt says its real I believe it RT @MattNoyesNECN: No-Nature's illusion. Tornado off exit 186 in Bangor Maine!

Well thats something else isn't it! Matt Noyes is my favorite local meteorologist for Boston, does a great job with Jim Kelly on NECN.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
Quoting emcf30:

You must of went to the School of Groth. LOL


Hey, E, it's called "Groth U"
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25996
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting emcf30:

You must of went to the School of Groth. LOL

Absolutely!
He is my Guru and Mentor.
I hope I survive...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24236
Quoting pottery:
Well, since we were talking earlier about Spot-On forecasts, I want to remind y'all that I called 94L 'the Undead' some days ago.
I cant remember why of course, or in what context, but just for the record,
"way to GO, me!" Brilliant!!

You must of went to the School of Groth. LOL
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Quoting caneswatch:


Those in Costa Rica are having fun. That's one of the surfing meccas of the world.

True.
By the time the swells get to California as southwesterly swells it should be a blast there.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24236
Well, since we were talking earlier about Spot-On forecasts, I want to remind y'all that I called 94L 'the Undead' some days ago.
I cant remember why of course, or in what context, but just for the record,
"way to GO, me!" Brilliant!!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24236
The MJO will be returning to our basin at the end of June and especially into the first of July. We'll probably see our first named storm then. It is forecast to stick for most of July, and I think we will finish up the month with about two or three storms.



Additionally, every week or so, when tropical waves come off Africa, they seem to have a more distinctive spin with them. I think we may see a Cape Verde system in July also, like Bertha of 2008.
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Quoting pottery:

Big-Wave surfers must be Drooling along the southern West Coast...


Those in Costa Rica are having fun. That's one of the surfing meccas of the world.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
823. afj3
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


possibly.


Hopefully we'll get something...
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Ok iv not even look at NHC for about 4 or 5 hours and i see a new invest and Adrian looking like a Cat5?
94L is a Fl. Tease!!
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adrian is going all the way maximum overdrive to C5 status
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the two tone dump is making a come back I see!
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Quoting Levi32:
Invest 94L is unlikely to develop, but perhaps it will be able to rotate some rainfall over to Florida during the next couple days. It's awfully close by already.


Thank the lord, I'm ready for some rain.
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If that eye were to clear out, it would look pretty much perfect.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF now says:

EP, 01, 2011061000, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1054W, 120, 946, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 25, 1008, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,

(That's 140 mph, in case you're wondering.)

Big-Wave surfers must be Drooling along the southern West Coast...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24236
Quoting afj3:
Evening All! I missed it! Away from links. Can anyone real quickly tell me if 94L will FINALLY bring rain to Florida while I go through inbox to look for links to models? Sorry to those of you who get annoyed with these types of questions but I am dying to know what's gonna happen and you all can tell me faster than it takes me to dig up my model pages....


possibly.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
On a sad note, the death toll from the Joplin tornado has jumped to 151 after more have succumbed to their injuries. Many of the newly departed fell victim to zygomycosis, a fungal infection caused by soil and/or vegetation embedded into the skin by high winds.

Link

Link


Dread.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24236

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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