Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

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Quoting Grothar:
Central Africa.



That is rather impressive for early June there Grothar.
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913. SLU
Quoting tropicfreak:


I remember that, it looked beautiful on satellite, too bad she knocked down trees in my backyard and on my house.


Yep. Isabel was a perfect 10 as far as annular hurricanes go.
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UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR...BUT MAY BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
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Central Africa.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
LOL

There is life after death.

94L returns.
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is that a huge ULL in the gomex?
You're right, that's way to much windshear for anything but a screaming eagle to form
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Quoting Grothar:
First image from CIMSS with convergence. Anybody want to see the wind sheer??




Thinking this 94L Re-Gen may be a little bittersweet at the moment.
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Quoting Grothar:
First image from CIMSS with convergence. Anybody want to see the wind sheer??





20-40 kt shear, yep too hostile.


But wait... shear is dropping.

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looks like 94L will be hash Grothar with all that shear. anyway, will catch the action in the a.m.
snooze time.
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4.9% done hurricane season.
0-0-0
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
Quoting swirlingeddie:
whoa! Adrian putting on a burst of rapid intensification after being modeled to dissipate in 30 hrs on the last model runs

And reanimated  94L is trying to form an LLC? This could be a rough season, anyone getting that impression?

just had the same thought, for what it's worth which isn't much but still. has hardly been a dull moment since June 1st.
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whoa! Adrian putting on a burst of rapid intensification after being modeled to dissipate in 30 hrs on the last model runs

And reanimated  94L is trying to form an LLC? This could be a rough season, anyone getting that impression?
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Quoting Grothar:
First image from CIMSS with convergence. Anybody want to see the wind sheer??




Wind Shear is high (40+ knots).
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Quoting SLU:
"NORMAL" HURRICANE



ANNULAR HURRICANE





I remember that, it looked beautiful on satellite, too bad she knocked down trees in my backyard and on my house.
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whoa! Adrian putting rapid intensification after being modeled to dissipate in 30 hrs on the last model runs

And reanimated  94L is trying to form an LLC? This could be a rough season, anyone getting that impression?
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First image from CIMSS with convergence. Anybody want to see the wind sheer??


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I can't believe we got 94L back...
yeah, me too Nerd, night.
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Goodnight. See y'all tomorrow.
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Last vis image of the day
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Quoting sunlinepr:
78% Cat 3 Next 12 hours...



That is a little old, would you say?
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Quoting Levi32:
Invest 94L is unlikely to develop, but perhaps it will be able to rotate some rainfall over to Florida during the next couple days. It's awfully close by already.


Convergence is there.
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890. SLU
"NORMAL" HURRICANE

Image and video hosting by TinyPic">

ANNULAR HURRICANE



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Quoting TomTaylor:
Yep, I was going to mention the SST depth, but I didn't want to make my post too long for fear of losing some people out of boredom lol. But yea TCHP is more important for large, long lasting, or extremely intense storms, or a combination of all three.


Anyway, you are very right, Jed. Once a hurricane gets good organization going, as long as the SSTs are warm enough and wind shear is minimal, dry air in the surrounding environment will have a minimal impact. Of course, in order to become a hurricane, dry air must be minimal, or else convection will be suppressed and inhibited. Therefore, dry air is a much greater problem when a storm is trying to form, or when it is struggling to survive.

Adrian is a great example of your point since it formed in a very moist environment and as a result was able to mature quickly. Once it got going many people noticed dry air beginning to surround it, but it had already became a hurricane by then



Yeah exactly, dry air is a much bigger issue with weaker tropical cyclones, but once conditions align and stay that way and these thing become monsters, there's not much dry air can do to stop them.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
78% Cat 3 Next 12 hours...



That's not been updated.
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wow. adrian is definitely feeling his power!
and that same part of Cuba has been getting hammered all day. LinkWVLoop
too bad we have no idea what is going on there.
calling cuba! anybody there?!
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78% Cat 3 Next 12 hours...

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Quoting pottery:

FANTASTIC !
Thanks, Pat.

(is there anything you cant find???)
:):))



Well,dat un was a tad stale,,from 12Z this morning,,but its a good tool
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will major hurricane Adrian be upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane, defined by winds over 135 knots?

A. Yes
B. No

Yes!
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877. SLU
Quoting GiovannaDatoli:

What do you mean by annular?


An annular hurricane or truck tire pattern hurricane is a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific Oceans that features a large, symmetric eye surrounded by a thick ring of intense convection and limited spiral banding. This type of storm is not prone to the fluctuations in intensity associated with eyewall replacement cycles, unlike typical intense tropical cyclones. Annular hurricanes also tend to persist, even when encountering environmental conditions which easily dissipate most other hurricanes. Forecasters have difficulty predicting the behavior of annular hurricanes; they are a recently recognized phenomenon, and as such, little is known about their tendencies. Because of this, they can be more dangerous than typical hurricanes.

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Adrian becoming a category 5 would be very unusual. Celia last year was only the second June category 5 in EPAC history. Plus, it would make three consecutive years with a category 5 in the EPAC, a first as well. Category 5s tend to form in clusters every few years in the EPAC but that hasn't been the case recently.
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Quoting Patrap:
HWRF Along-Shear Vertical Cross Section - Wind Speed & Relative Humidity



FANTASTIC !
Thanks, Pat.

(is there anything you cant find???)
:):))
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Currently getting an isolated downpour with a few lightning strikes, rain rate is 3.1 inches an hour an the rain gauge, it will be short lived so we will probably only end up with about a half inch or a little more, but I'll take it! Now all we need is hours of this rain state wide...
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Are you getting that confused with Goethe U?



He's the one who taught me the term " der Trottel". I'm sure you can figure that one out. I'll be posting my update on Adrian and 94L soon. I'm sure you are all waiting for it.
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Quoting Patrap:
Note the dark red ring around the edge of the CDO/Eyewall





Kind of reminds me of a dress I saw once. Adrian is definitely becoming very impressive. I would go out on the limb and state he had a possibility of becoming a Cat5.
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Quoting Patrap:
Note the dark red ring around the edge of the CDO/Eyewall




Would LOVE to see a Cross-Section of that.

Anyboddy ??
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Sun goes down, and then the eye comes out..
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Q: Will major hurricane Adrian be upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane, defined by winds over 135 knots?

A. Yes
B. No
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Quoting RIDGES:


You were the right hand man of this guy, right?



Where do you think the expression, Put a "Soc" in it came from?
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Quoting 1344:
Starting to look a lot like a Cat 5. do you think it will be updgraded?


Possibly.
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Id say there is a 75% chance we may see this go to cat-5 tonight
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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