Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

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NHC probably is overstating 94L's chances, even at 20%. GFS show no closed low forming at all, it stays elongated and gets absorbed by a frontal boundary by 114 hrs. But I'm rooting for it, we need the rain!

Member Since: June 8, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
Quoting kmanislander:


Perhaps, but we may be in a new era of tropical cyclone activity.


'ope not!!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23990
Welcome sheramio, and thanks for the "Heat Burst" post!

That is very interesting! It seems to be a season for strange occurrences. Here in NW VT we are breaking all sorts of records (from precip to temp) and Lake Champlain has been above flood stage for about 6 weeks now. I've never seen that before in my 30 years here. It's gotten so we don't even notice the flood warning icons anymore.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I thought about that too with the storm being able to survive

Either way they did not call Daniel in 2006 annular and I thought they should have; this is another borderline case to me



It's hard to define the line between spiral bands and no spiral bands.
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...
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Quoting Levi32:


True, but I wonder if that's not what helped Adrian survive in the first place, and whether that can actually make a hurricane annular by destroying the spiral bands. It's pretty close to annular on the latest microwave:



I thought about that too with the storm being able to survive

Either way they did not call Daniel in 2006 annular and I thought they should have; this is another borderline case to me

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Quoting superpete:
I think eating crow, or in our case, Grackle with jerk sauce LOL


Hey Pete. I hate those grackles AKA Ching Chings

Would you believe they prance around my cat, peck the tail repeatedly until she leaves her food and then they swoop down and cart it away ??. I have heard the expression " bird brain " but these feathered fiends are very clever. They even pick up the balls of hard food, go over to the pool and dip it until it is soft enough to swallow.

We might need to employ a few of them LOL
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On the animation loop has looked much more impressive on the last couple of frames
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Im not so sure Adrian is annular

I mean yea compact storm, fairly large eye

but to me the reason there is no banding on parts of the storm is because its surrounded by dry air and I think here is still banding on the south side


True, but I wonder if that's not what helped Adrian survive in the first place, and whether that can actually make a hurricane annular by destroying the spiral bands. It's pretty close to annular on the latest microwave:

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Quoting kmanislander:


YES SIR ( Salutes accordingly )

We have had some nice rain here and more on the way as 94L seems to be trying to reach down our way. Where are you ?


Ft. Lauderdale, Or better known now as the Great Red Spot.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25287
Been readin' this blog since Katrina, never posted, but my brother in Wichita told me 'bout this and I thought you guys might be interested:

WICHITA, Kansas -- Last night Wichita experienced a very rare weather phenomenon known as a “Heat Burst.” At 12:22 a.m. the temperature at Wichita’s Mid-Continent Airport was 85 degrees. At 12:44 the temperature spiked to 102 degrees. This was a 17 degree increase in only 20 minutes. Winds also gusted between 50 and 60 MPH. The heat burst winds and temperatures rapidly dissipated as they spread across Sedgwick and Southern Butler Counties.

A heat burst is caused when rain falls into very dry air, high up in the atmosphere. The rain quickly evaporates as it falls through the dry parcel of air and that parcel cools rapidly. This dense mass falls rapidly toward the ground, heating up as it compresses. When this hot ball of air hits the ground it spreads out in every direction creating very strong, warm and dry winds.

About an hour before the heat burst, wind gusts up to 40 miles per hour battered the Wichita metro area. This was due to outflow winds from severe weather south of the city, and not related to the heat burst. (from KSN Wichita Channel 3)

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Quoting kmanislander:


I saw quite a few bloggers on here this morning saying the NHC had screwed up upgrading to a CAT 3. Dry air entrainment and all of that.

Where are they now ??


haha, gotta love how they disappear or pretend they never said it :)

They sit around with no experience under their belt judging weather experts who spend half their life in school to get where they are.

Personally, I find that just a tad ridiculous, don't you think?

There's nothing wrong with disagreeing, I disagree with the NHC and other meteorologists too sometimes. But there are some people here that seem to make it their aim to criticize those more knowledgeable then them. I don't like that, at all..
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Quoting centex:
Anyone defending the 20% chance for 94L? I'm having hard time seeing that. Normally I trust NHC and give them wide berth and benefit of doubt. But I'm sure in coming months we will see far better systems not getting this credit.


I doubt 94L has much of a chance here.
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Im not so sure Adrian is annular

I mean yea compact storm, fairly large eye

but to me the reason there is no banding on parts of the storm is because its surrounded by dry air and I think there is still banding on the south side
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Quoting kmanislander:


I saw quite a few bloggers on here this morning saying the NHC had screwed up upgrading to a CAT 3. Dry air entrainment and all of that.

Where are they now ??
I think eating crow, or in our case, Grackle with jerk sauce LOL
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Quoting RIDGES:


Sleeping in their cozy beds knowing they were right about everything. And because they always look back to see posts, they will apologize to everyone about being incorrect. Not only that, they will abstain from any future predictions because they care about being fair and accurate.

And now back to your regularly scheduled show, "IS THAT ANNULAR?"


I suppose it is LOL
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Glad I was able to add an extra beat to your life.


Hey, I'll take all the help I can get. Thanks. Heard it was still very dry up by you. I hope this thing cuts us a break and drops a little on us.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25287
Quoting kmanislander:


Perhaps, but we may be in a new era of tropical cyclone activity.


It appears that way...! I guess we'll see.
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Quoting Grothar:


OK, but attention next time. Yo, this really took us by surprise with 94L. Hope we get some rain. It really is bad up our way.


YES SIR ( Salutes accordingly )

We have had some nice rain here and more on the way as 94L seems to be trying to reach down our way. Where are you ?
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Quoting IceCoast:
Didn't know the NHC actually called Adrian annular. What a beautiful storm to watch.

MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ADRIAN HAS STABILIZED AS AN ANNULAR
HURRICANE WITH A 20-25 NMI DIAMETER EYE. WITH NO CURRENT
INDICATIONS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ABOUT TO BEGIN


Seems "A" is for Annular as well as Adrian, this year.

It is beautiful...but also kinda spooky, given that we aren't at the hottest part of the season yet.
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Quoting Grothar:


You made my "heart" jump there for a minute. :)



Glad I was able to add an extra beat to your life.
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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 14.6N 105.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 14.9N 106.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 15.3N 108.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.6N 109.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 16.0N 111.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 16.6N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 17.4N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 18.7N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25287
Anyone defending the 20% chance for 94L? I'm having hard time seeing that. Normally I trust NHC and give them wide berth and benefit of doubt. But I'm sure in coming months we will see far better systems not getting this credit.
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Quoting listenerVT:


One doesn't expect this with the first storm out of the box.

Perhaps they are busy scratching their heads, with both hands. ;-)


Perhaps, but we may be in a new era of tropical cyclone activity.
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Didn't know the NHC actually called Adrian annular. What a beautiful storm to watch.

MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ADRIAN HAS STABILIZED AS AN ANNULAR
HURRICANE WITH A 20-25 NMI DIAMETER EYE. WITH NO CURRENT
INDICATIONS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ABOUT TO BEGIN
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
Quoting kmanislander:


How dare you cover any ground before I arrive LOL

I haven't been on for the past couple of days as there was very little to post about after the demise of 94L. But, I do check in from time to time and saw that Lazzurus had arisen, AKA 94L.

I didn't read back any so I apply for forgiveness :-(


OK, but attention next time. Yo, this really took us by surprise with 94L. Hope we get some rain. It really is bad up our way.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25287
Quoting SLU:


You're right. However, certain trends can be picked up from the analog years since the atmospheric patterns are similar.


I suppose so...

I personally think, compared to neutral, that we are already off to a unique start with the lack of SAL in the Atlantic.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I saw quite a few bloggers on here this morning saying the NHC had screwed up upgrading to a CAT 3. Dry air entrainment and all of that.

Where are they now ??


One doesn't expect this with the first storm out of the box.

Perhaps they are busy scratching their heads, with both hands. ;-)
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935. SLU
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 100232
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ADRIAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL AWAY
FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 105.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. ADRIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ADRIAN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



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934. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
RSMC Miami National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN (EP012011)
8:00 PM PDT June 9 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: "ADRIAN" Continues To Strengthen Well Away From The Pacific Coast Of Mexico

At 0:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Adrian (946 hPa) located at 14.6N 105.8W or 280 NM south southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 120 knots with gusts of 145 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.3N 108.4W - 110 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 16.0N 111.1W - 85 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 16.6N 112.8W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Grother, I pulled a fast one on ya. Seeing that it's impossible now to avoid the tenure issue, I reverted back to my original handle and ditched CyclonicVoyage. I was curious the other day to see if it was still active and it was.


You made my "heart" jump there for a minute. :)

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25287
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
adrian is a cat 5 or will be next update from the NHC


I saw quite a few bloggers on here this morning saying the NHC had screwed up upgrading to a CAT 3. Dry air entrainment and all of that.

Where are they now ??
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
adrian is a cat 5 or will be next update from the NHC


Yikes! That raises the hair on the back of one's neck, with regard to the season ahead, eh?
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Quoting listenerVT:
Whoa, Adrian's a Cat 4~!

That's rather strong for an "A" isn't it?



My heart goes out to Haiti. ♥

adrian is a cat 5 or will be next update from the NHC
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928. SLU
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
915. SLU 2:31 AM GMT on June 10, 2011

I've been tracking canes since 2004, what I've learned is that 2011 is going to be 2011. The analog years hold very little weight with me. Each year is unique, IMO.


You're right. However, certain trends can be picked up from the analog years since the atmospheric patterns are similar.
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Quoting Grothar:


We do need the rain. You all look vaguely familiar.


Grother, I pulled a fast one on ya. Seeing that it's impossible now to avoid the tenure issue, I reverted back to my original handle and ditched CyclonicVoyage. I was curious the other day to see if it was still active and it was.
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Whoa, Adrian's a Cat 4~!

That's rather strong for an "A" isn't it?



My heart goes out to Haiti. ♥

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Quoting Grothar:


We already covered that kman. Please keep up with the program. How you doing there? Don't pop in as much.


How dare you cover any ground before I arrive LOL

I haven't been on for the past couple of days as there was very little to post about after the demise of 94L. But, I do check in from time to time and saw that Lazzurus had arisen, AKA 94L.

I didn't read back any so I apply for forgiveness :-(
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Quoting kmanislander:
There is a huge ULL over the GOM creating a very diffluent environment over the NW Caribbean. That is what is fuelling the thunderstorms for the resurgent 94L.

It wont last.


We already covered that kman. Please keep up with the program. How you doing there? Don't pop in as much.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25287
915. SLU 2:31 AM GMT on June 10, 2011

I've been tracking canes since 2004, what I've learned is that 2011 is going to be 2011. The analog years hold very little weight with me. Each year is unique, IMO.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Thinking this 94L Re-Gen may be a little bittersweet at the moment.


We do need the rain. You all look vaguely familiar.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25287
XX/INV/94L
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T.C.F.W.
01E/MH/A/C5
MARK
15.25N/105.5W
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


That is rather impressive for early June there Grothar.


Hopefully they break up when they get off the coast. They usually do this time of year. Although the water is a bit warm there this season.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25287
There is a huge ULL over the GOM creating a very diffluent environment over the NW Caribbean. That is what is fuelling the thunderstorms for the resurgent 94L.

It wont last.
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94L is back. Hard to find what factors are giving it a chance. But persistence may be under rated.
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915. SLU
REPOST

Here is a very interesting observation that I made about the ongoing 2011 Atlantic hurricane season:

The analog years for 2011 are 1951, 1981, 1989, 1996 and 2008. Analog years are years with similar atmospheric patterns as the current year and they can be used to give an insight as to what to expect during the current hurricane season.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image showing the tracks of all 62 tropical cyclones in the analog years for 2011 indicating a heavy bias towards development in the main development region (MDR).

Storm tracks for the analog years:

1951 featured 8 hurricanes including category 3 Hurricane Able in May which is still the most powerful hurricane to develop outside the hurricane season, category 4 Hurricane Charlie which blasted through the Caribbean along a path similar to that of Dean in 2007, another Caribbean major hurricane called Dog and a rare category 5 Hurricane Easy in the south-western Atlantic.



1981 featured another May cyclone in Tropical Storm Arlene in early May and a series of four powerful September hurricanes that brushed the north eastern Caribbean and recurved harmlessly out to sea without affecting the US.



1989 featured 4 named storms by August 1st and a very active Cape Verde season in which two long-tracked classical Cape Verde-type major hurricanes formed. Category 5 Hurricane Hugo levelled the north eastern Caribbean and also caused great damage in the Carolinas and category 4 Hurricane Gabrielle which became one of the largest hurricanes to ever form in the Atlantic.



1996 was also a very active Cape Verde season which had 6 major hurricanes which is a record bettered by only the 1950, 1961 and 2005 seasons. The north eastern Caribbean and the east coast of the US took a battering. Hurricane Bertha was a rare July Cape Verde hurricane which was later followed by powerful hurricanes Edouard, Fran and Hortense.



In 2008, we saw the formation of major hurricanes in each month from July to November which was the 1st time this had ever been observed, four named storms by August 1st and a battering for the Caribbean and the US coastline.



There are several similarities with each of these seasons:

1. All of the seasons had a very early start with 1951 and 1981 having tropical cyclones in May.

2. Hurricane Able of 1951 was the most powerful hurricane ever in May.

3. Hurricane Bertha of 1996 was the easternmost forming tropical storm, hurricane and major hurricane in the Atlantic before August 1st.

4. Hurricane Bertha of 2008 broke the records for the longest-lived July Atlantic tropical cyclone at 17 days, the easternmost forming tropical storm at 24.7°W, easternmost forming hurricane at 50.2°W, and easternmost-forming pre-August major hurricane at 52.1°W (records all previously held by 1996's Bertha). Bertha is also the sixth strongest pre-August Atlantic tropical cyclone on record and was the third strongest July storm on record, behind Dennis and Emily of 2005.

5. Pre-August 1st named storm days south of 25N, east of 75W is a major indicator of an active hurricane season. The only analog year not to feature this is 1951 which did have a category 3 hurricane in May in the sub-tropical Atlantic.

6. All of the analog years had very active Cape Verde seasons with an average of 5.6 named storms forming east of 60W.

7. Twenty-eight out of the total of sixty-two named storms in these 5 seasons (or 45%) formed east of 60W.

8. The northern Caribbean, the US east coast and the Gulf coast west of New Orleans have been the most severely affected areas in these analog years.

9. The analog years produced an average of 2.8 named storms, 1.0 hurricanes and 0.6 major hurricanes by August 1st.

Based on that information, I believe we may see the follow this year:

1. An early start to the season.

2. Between 2 – 4 named storms, 1 – 2 hurricanes and probably a 60% chance of a major hurricane by August 1st.

3. A very active Cape Verde season with about 6 – 8 named storms east of 60W as a result of the above average SSTs.

4. Pre-August 1st named storm days east of 75W and south of 25N.

5. The north eastern Caribbean and US east coast may be at high risk for multiple landfalling tropical cyclones.

6. The likelihood of a long tracked Cape Verde hurricane staying far enough to the south to enter the Caribbean and affect the US.


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Quoting Grothar:
Central Africa.



That is rather impressive for early June there Grothar.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.