Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

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Nice looking eye.
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1063. Hugo7
looks like most models still have adrian desipating and going north toward gulf of cali still. Could make cat 5 before currents start to change it's course.
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"Parts of England are officially in a drought following the dry spring, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) has said.

Areas of East Anglia are in drought, with parts of the south-west and south-east of England, the Midlands and Wales in a "near-drought" state.

In the drought-affected areas, Anglian Water and Cambridge Water say there is no threat to public water supplies.

But Severn Trent Water says there may be restrictions if rainfall stays low."

Link

Some of that should be alleviated over the weekend with a broad, wet low coming in from the Atlantic.

Adrian's quite a pretty hurricane - it really did sort itself out in a fairly short space of time. Strongest hurricane this early in EPac since Adolph in 2001.
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1061. Walshy
GFS
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1060. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM SARIKA (T1103)
15:00 PM JST June 10 2011
==============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sarika (996 hPa) located at 20.1N 117.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 24.1N 116.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 26.4N 118.1E - Tropical Depression

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Storm will move at the same speed for the next 24 hours then decelerate

Tropical Storm will move north for the next 24 hours then move north northeast

Tropical Storm will keep present intensity for next 24 hours

Final Initial Dvorak Number will be T2.5 after 24 hours
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Quoting Walshy:


But what if someone wanted to surf anyway?


And then you're right.
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1058. Walshy
Quoting Vincent4989:

But what if beaches were closed due to an advisory?


But what if someone wanted to surf anyway?

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Quoting Walshy:


Disagree. People die in rip currents off of North Carolina from a fish storm miles away.


But what if beaches were closed due to an advisory?
Also there are 10-20% chances of Adrian being a CAT-5, in my opinion.
I forgot also this:
Solar Weather for Today:
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Quoting Skyepony:



A fire in an electrical switch room on Tuesday briefly knocked out cooling for a pool holding spent nuclear fuel at the Fort Calhoun nuclear plant outside Omaha, Neb., plant officials said.


Thanks Skyepony, I just picked this out also :"On June 6, 2011 the Omaha Public Power District, as required by Nuclear Regulatory Commission guidelines, declared a level 1 "Notification of Unusual Event" (minimal level incident on a 1-4 scale) due to flooding of the Missouri River.[7] The Missouri River is above flood stage and is expected to rise further and remain above flood stage for several weeks to a month. Contractors have been busy installing sandbags and earthen berms to protect the facility from flooding.": the good news is it is in a refueling shut down currently but there is no exact location of the storage pools of the spent fuel that is stored...this could get messy maybe?
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1055. Walshy
Quoting Vincent4989:
I'd doubt there will be fatalities associated with adrian....on the beach.


Disagree. People die in rip currents off of North Carolina from a fish storm hundreds of miles away every hurricane season.

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I'd doubt there will be fatalities associated with adrian....on the beach.
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1053. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting houston144:
Does any one have a status on the Fort Calhoun Reactor Plant, caught this image yesterday where the flooding from the Missouri river looks to be at the front door. been told the officials say the river won't come through the front door because they won't let it, (Really? omg!)



A fire in an electrical switch room on Tuesday briefly knocked out cooling for a pool holding spent nuclear fuel at the Fort Calhoun nuclear plant outside Omaha, Neb., plant officials said.
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1050. JLPR2
Adrian is a neat little ball.
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Does any one have a status on the Fort Calhoun Reactor Plant, caught this image yesterday where the flooding from the Missouri river looks to be at the front door. been told the officials say the river won't come through the front door because they won't let it, (Really? omg!)
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I can't believe 94L came back. If 94L can survive that sw shear now then I'm not gonna' turn my back on it until it's 1500 miles away.
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1046. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TROPICAL STORM DODONG (SARIKA)
11:00 AM PhST June 10 2011
=====================================

DODONG is now outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and continues to move away from the country.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Dodong located at 19.6°N 117.3°E or 330 km northwest of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gustiness up to 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 12 knots.

Additional Information
=====================
TS "Dodong" is expected to enhance the Southwest monsoon and will bring rains over the western section of Northern and Central Luzon.

With this development, this is the final bulletin on this weather disturbance.
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ULAC is ballooning in the Caribbean.

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1044. 7544
Quoting caneswatch:


Night Gro.

Oh BAMS model, please be right!


check gap is closing Link
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The center of 94L hasn't moved an inch the past 7 hours looking at the IR2
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1042. 7544
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Pretty much in agreement then. I'm thinking rain chances will increase more than the current NWS forecast scheme for South Florida. I'm still expecting significant rains from this system for South Florida.


ill agree with you if 94 can build on the west side that would mean xtra rain for so fla also if 94l has a good dmax tonight things can change fast still has some tricks to play out stay tuned and thanks cchs ill be watching tonight
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1041. Relix
Nice wave in the Central Atlantic.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Pretty much in agreement then. I'm thinking rain chances will increase more than the current NWS forecast scheme for South Florida. I'm still expecting significant rains from this system for South Florida.


It depends on how you define "significant". Currently, the GFS keeps the upper tropospheric flow nearly uniformly southwesterly, which will tend to keep much of the associated convection downwind of the center. The southern and southeastern peninsula may receive an inch or two, but I don't foresee anymore beyond that, and areas to the west probably won't receive any at all.

We shall see, of course. I agree with you on everything except the rain chances.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'll chime in. I actually finished looking at the data (writing a blog entry) myself, and I tend to agree with your assessment. You can already see the upper low retrograding a bit northwestward on water vapor imagery. Also, the synoptic pattern doesn't really look all that favorable to retrograde the western Atlantic ridge too far east, which in combination with the retrograding upper low will allow the system to find itself in a lower shear environment. However, this environment still appears to me to be just a little too prohibitive for significant development, even with the system moving parallel to the upper flow after 24-36 hours.


Pretty much in agreement then. I'm thinking rain chances will increase more than the current NWS forecast scheme for South Florida. I'm still expecting significant rains from this system for South Florida.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Levi - You still around? If so, then what do you think about my analysis regarding the situation with Invest 94L?


I'll chime in. I actually finished looking at the data (writing a blog entry) myself, and I tend to agree with your assessment. You can already see the upper low retrograding a bit northwestward on water vapor imagery. Also, the synoptic pattern doesn't really look all that favorable to retrograde the western Atlantic ridge too far east, which in combination with the retrograding upper low will allow the system to find itself in a lower shear environment. However, this environment still appears to me to be just a little too prohibitive for significant development, even with the system moving parallel to the upper flow after 24-36 hours.
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Quoting Grothar:
A quicky before I go. Just came in. Nite.



Night Gro.

Oh BAMS model, please be right!
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1034. flsky
Monty Python questions - perfect!

Quoting nopepper:
OK, you can tell by my last "quote" that I've still got a bit to learn ...

Only posted a handful of times.:-) As if you couldn't tell.

Been lurking for 7-8 years, been a member since whenever it says down there, and been a paid member even less (but will continue to pay because this fantastic resource needs to continue).

As for me, I've lived near the coast for 20 years, a few hundred miles from the coast (though still close enough to care) for 20 years, and on the coast for 10. (Houston, Austin and Corpus Christi, if you really want to know.) My mom (bless her departed soul) told me about going through Carla with an infant - me. I've been enthralled with tropical systems since then (or, at least, as soon after then as I can remember).

Keep up the great work. And I mean all of it - prognostications, barbs, jokes ... everything.

And if sucked in by a troll, ask them the Monty Python questions.
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Levi - You still around? If so, then what do you think about my analysis regarding the situation with Invest 94L?
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AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA... THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...AND MOST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE AREA OF LOWEST
PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR...BUT MAY BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
What?!?!
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ha ha doesn't 94L remind you guys for a storm that just won't die remeber
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Quoting centex:
It would seem that change from unfavorable to marginal upper winds in very disorganized system does not warrant 20% chance. They must be factoring in something esle.
favorable location for this time of yr?
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Quoting nopepper:
OK, you can tell by my last "quote" that I've still got a bit to learn ...

Only posted a handful of times.:-) As if you couldn't tell.

Been lurking for 7-8 years, been a member since whenever it says down there, and been a paid member even less (but will continue to pay because this fantastic resource needs to continue).

As for me, I've lived near the coast for 20 years, a few hundred miles from the coast (though still close enough to care) for 20 years, and on the coast for 10. (Houston, Austin and Corpus Christi, if you really want to know.) My mom (bless her departed soul) told me about going through Carla with an infant - me. I've been enthralled with tropical systems since then (or, at least, as soon after then as I can remember).

Keep up the great work. And I mean all of it - prognostications, barbs, jokes ... everything.

And if sucked in by a troll, ask them the Monty Python questions.


Good to see you on this blog.
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Quoting Grothar:
Cuba must be getting pounded, hasn't moved much.


Link


That needs to come to South Florida very soon!
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Quoting Grothar:
Well night shift. It has been nice. They are coming around with the cart so I have to go. See you tomorrow.


See ya.
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1025. Grothar
A quicky before I go. Just came in. Nite.

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1024. pottery
Quoting Grothar:
Well night shift. It has been nice. They are coming around with the cart so I have to go. See you tomorrow.

Sweet Dreams...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OK, you can tell by my last "quote" that I've still got a bit to learn ...

Only posted a handful of times.:-) As if you couldn't tell.

Been lurking for 7-8 years, been a member since whenever it says down there, and been a paid member even less (but will continue to pay because this fantastic resource needs to continue).

As for me, I've lived near the coast for 20 years, a few hundred miles from the coast (though still close enough to care) for 20 years, and on the coast for 10. (Houston, Austin and Corpus Christi, if you really want to know.) My mom (bless her departed soul) told me about going through Carla with an infant - me. I've been enthralled with tropical systems since then (or, at least, as soon after then as I can remember).

Keep up the great work. And I mean all of it - prognostications, barbs, jokes ... everything.

And if sucked in by a troll, ask them the Monty Python questions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1022. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
see ya tomorrow gro have a good sleep
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1021. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


I always wanted to send this to Aussie. It is a sentence with the most prepositions.


What did you bring that book that I don't want to be read to from out of about 'Down Under' up for?


Goodness me!
That IS good!
My brain is going into fuzzmode.
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1020. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/94L
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1019. Grothar
Well night shift. It has been nice. They are coming around with the cart so I have to go. See you tomorrow.
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1017. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
01E/MH/A/C4
MARK
15.25N/105.5W
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1016. Grothar
Cuba must be getting pounded, hasn't moved much.


Link
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See this 50% on the map? It will be 20% this time tomorrow you watch.
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1014. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

Hey! I didnt know that one, you kayak.


I always wanted to send this to Aussie. It is a sentence with the most prepositions.


What did you bring that book that I don't want to be read to from out of about 'Down Under' up for?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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