Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

Share this Blog
9
+

The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

()
()
Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1114 - 1064

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

1114. emcf30
Geoffery
Melbourne is thinking the same thing. Hope to pans out
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

TUE-THU...MID/UPR TROUGH WL BE WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN CONUS/
WRN ATLC THROUGH MID WEEK AS SFC FRONTAL TROUGH SAGS INTO CTRL FL
AND BCMS DIFFUSE. LOW LVL RIDGE WL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF FL
AS DEEP LYR FLOW WL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE W-SW. THIS WILL FAVOR
THE INTR AND EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION.
HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE (30) THROUGH THE XTD RANGE
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEE NUMBERS CREEP A LTL HIGHER
ONCE WE GET A FEW DAYS INTO THE PATTERN CHANGE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1113. pottery
Quoting Grothar:
If you look to to SE of Adrian you can see a large cluster of storms beginning to form. Last night is was just a small swirl with little convection. As many know, it is not unusual for the storms for rapidly one after the other. This feature will be intgeresting to watch over the next few days.


How Sweet!
Adrian has a Baby Sister...
What's the DOOMCON level right now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back to 10%

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
awww...a baby blob!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
1109. Grothar
If you look to to SE of Adrian you can see a large cluster of storms beginning to form. Last night is was just a small swirl with little convection. As many know, it is not unusual for the storms for rapidly one after the other. This feature will be intgeresting to watch over the next few days.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Miami NWS thinks our rainy season should be starting:

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH LOWS AND TROUGH BECOME
DIFFUSE AS THEY MOVE NORTH WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTHWEST. GFS STILL INDICATES A LONG WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS ERN U.S. KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AT LEAST MODERATE UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE.
DIURNAL HEATING AND LAKE/SEA BREEZES CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH WILL THEN BE STEERED EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1105. IKE

Quoting 7544:


wait so 94l will meet up with another low in the bahamas and this will bring rain to so fla does that mean when they meet they will move wnw from the bahamas trying to fiqure this one while all the conv.is still moving east lol tia
94L looks to be moving NNE to me. Wish it was moving WNW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rain, rain come and stay,
Don't leave for twenty days.

Florida needs your soaking wet kiss,
so please return us to a State of bliss!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Pin...wheel...annularity!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thursday, June 9, 2011 INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING

Report: Egyptian reactor leaked radioactive liquid
CAIRO — Egypt's nuclear reactor has been struck by a radioactive leak.

Egypt's new military regime has been told of a leak at the Anshas nuclear reactor. Anshas, located on the outskirts of Cairo, was said to have emitted at least 10 cubic meters of radioactive liquid.
"The fact that the reactor was by mere chance not operated the next day saved the area from environmental disaster," the note to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces read...

Link
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
1100. 7544
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Discussion

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A FEW MODELS (PARTICULARLY THE GFS) DEVELOP A
SECOND SFC LOW OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS AND CONNECT THE TWO LOWS WITH
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SHOULD THEN MOVE NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.


wait so 94l will meet up with another low in the bahamas and this will bring rain to so fla does that mean when they meet they will move wnw from the bahamas trying to fiqure this one while all the conv.is still moving east lol tia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1099. IKE

Quoting hydrus:
It is a bummer..

But...but...the rainy season will be starting next week for Florida:(


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1098. emcf30
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
SAL isn't nearly as high as it was this time last year.


Excerpt from Crown Weather

Finally, I wanted to point out some very interesting and thought provoking ideas that the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico wrote in their Wednesday afternoon discussion about the tropical waves over the eastern Atlantic, various model guidance scenarios and the role of the lack of Saharan Dust may play later on in this hurricane season. Even though today is Friday, their analysis still applies:

“LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE A NICE DEPICTION OF AN AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE PASSING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEXT THU JUN 16. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 10N AND 20W. WEAKENING MJO/NEGATIVE 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND TIME OF THE YEAR DO NOT FAVOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERESTING NOTE IS LACK OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND WESTERN AFRICA AT THIS TIME WHICH TYPICALLY TENDS TO DOMINATE THIS AREA DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE. NESDIS BLENDED TROPICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH A HIGHER WATER VAPOR CONTENT THAN NORMAL PERHAPS A HARBINGER OF THINGS TO COME LATER THIS HURRICANE SEASON.”

My take on this is that it is not out of the question that we may see a much earlier than normal Cape Verde hurricane season, much like 2008 and 1996 and it is not out of the question that we may be dealing with a July Cape Verde hurricane if these conditions across Africa continues.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1097. pottery
Quoting Hurrykane:
What do you notice?


Adrian has a Sister?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1096. hydrus
Quoting IKE:
I see 94L is temporarily back. Isn't it amazing that Florida is going to
miss out on the rain that they desperately need? If it weren't needed
so badly it might be funny....



It is a bummer..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Since April 6th, I've had 1.40" :(
We need rain


I never thought I would say this but I would give up golf for the next 3 Saturdays in a row for a steady rain each day here in West Palm Beach.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1093. IKE

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1092. IKE

Quoting largeeyes:
Was 94L reactivated?
Yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Miami NWS Discussion

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A FEW MODELS (PARTICULARLY THE GFS) DEVELOP A
SECOND SFC LOW OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS AND CONNECT THE TWO LOWS WITH
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SHOULD THEN MOVE NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Was 94L reactivated?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1087. IKE
How convenient....you can probably see the clouds, looking east....from the east coast of Florida....


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Normally, June and July are the months that have plenty of Sal spreading thru the Atlantic.But this year so far is less than average.


Yeah, and Africa has been really active. Typically, years like this one do not experience many Cape Verde storms, I think this season may be an exception though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting IKE:
Since April 6th I've had 1.53 inches of rain.


Since April 6th, I've had 1.40" :(
We need rain

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
SAL isn't nearly as high as it was this time last year.



Normally, June and July are the months that have plenty of Sal spreading thru the Atlantic.But this year so far is less than average.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, by being termed 'annular', it's already implicit that Adrian has more or less hit his ceiling as a storm is believed to have to be 85% or greater of its MPI.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1082. IKE
Since April 6th I've had 1.53 inches of rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SAL isn't nearly as high as it was this time last year.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
I do not think much of anybody predicted Adrian would reach this strength. But it appears that he has peaked at 140 mph/946 mb. If not, he'll increase about 5 mph and that's his limit.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
1079. MahFL
Oh yesterday a neibours unkempt rear yard's grass caught fire, I am not sure what the cause was, but it's dry as a bone in Orange Park, FL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MahFL:


Pro surfers die as well as no pros.
not many die though cars are dangerous too off topic but i dont know one surfer who has died but i know three separate incidents that friends died from motorcycle wrecks danm alarm clock http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWJbFtIxS7g
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4594
1077. IKE
I went down to my dock yesterday....I live on lakefront property. I have never seen the water level that low. About a third of my dock is no longer in water:(


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1076. aquak9
Quoting MahFL:


Pro surfers die as well as no pros.

and a cheerful good-morning to you, too, MAH.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 25938
1075. MahFL
Quoting aspectre:
973 cctxshirl "wow, in my opinion, Adrian is impressive. I still haven't heard from my boss but I'm assuming he's okay. He's in Manzanillo, Mexico."

Considering that your boss went with a professional surfer, he's probably stoked about being able to catch some big rides on Adrian's storm waves.


Pro surfers die as well as no pros.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
While we complain, the silent among us suffer also.

Excerpt:


At the north end of the sprawling Everglades system, endangered snail kites are abandoning nests from the Kissimmee River basin down to Lake Okeechobee. Marshes in the heart of the Everglades are burning or shriveling into cracked mud.

On the east coast, oysters are dying as sea water pushes deeper into the brackish St. Lucie River estuary. On the west, explosions of toxic algae are killing fish and triggering public health warnings in the Caloosahatchee River. At the south end of the Glades, stretches of coastal Florida Bay mangroves have dipped into unhealthy hyper-salinity.



Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
central cuba is getting pounded with heavy rain these low level troughs can produced incredible amounts of precip. if stationary they have produced even more rain than hurricanes over 100 inches
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4594
1072. aquak9
Hi Cotillion. If nothing else, the colors are pretty.

we need some rain
in the southeast
pkease just not
a Cat3 beast

We need so much
for many days
to soak our soil
and clear the haze

Please make the rain
fall long and slow
so we can thrive
and life may grow

And so I beg
to anyone
we need some inches
and not just one.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 25938
Quoting aquak9:
Good morning, good day, wherever on the planet you might be.

Sun's not up yet, but as soon as it shows, I'll slingshot it on to the rest of you.

Woke in a good mood- hey will someone post the five day QPF so I can be my normal depressed self please?


Is it this?



Morning Aqua, Ike.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1070. aquak9
Good morning, good day, wherever on the planet you might be.

Sun's not up yet, but as soon as it shows, I'll slingshot it on to the rest of you.

Woke in a good mood- hey will someone post the five day QPF so I can be my normal depressed self please?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 25938
1069. IKE
I see 94L is temporarily back. Isn't it amazing that Florida is going to
miss out on the rain that they desperately need? If it weren't needed
so badly it might be funny....



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Xianning was battered by rain and floods from 8 pm Thursday to 5 am Friday.

In Tongcheng county, precipitation topped 300 mm within four hours, a record volume.

The entire county was virtually submerged by Friday morning, with more than 60,000 residents left stranded. Fifty-thousand of them were evacuated by 8 am Friday.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011yangtzedro ught/2011-06/10/content_12673844.htm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quotes from Wiki:
The Fort Calhoun Nuclear Generating Station is a..Combustion Engineering pressurized water reactor generating 500 megawatts of electricity. This is currently the smallest rated capacity among all operating commercial power reactors in North America.
[After 30years of operation] In 2003, the plant had its operating license renewed for an additional twenty years, expiring in 2033
A rubber stamp process under which the owner-operator OmahaPublicPowerDistrict didn't even have to prove that the generating plant continued to meet the operating standards set for its commissioning in 1973. Which it obviously didn't because
The plant underwent refurbishment in 2006 by having its steam generators, pressurizer, reactor vessel head, low pressure turbines and main transformer replaced.
After 37years of operating without adequate flood protection,
A flood assessment performed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 2010 indicated that the Fort Calhoun Nuclear Generating Station, "did not have adequate procedures to protect the intake structure and auxiliary building against external flooding events." The assessment also indicated that the facility was not adequately prepared for a "worst-case" flooding scenario.
A number of potential flood water penetration points were discovered that could have impacted the raw feed water supply to the cooling system, the auxilliary water supply and main switchgear (electrical) room. By early 2011, corrective measures had been implemented.
Which were obviously inadequate because
On June 6, 2011 the Omaha Public Power District, as required by Nuclear Regulatory Commission guidelines, declared a level 1 "Notification of Unusual Event" (minimal level incident on a 1-4 scale) due to flooding of the Missouri River. The Missouri River is above flood stage and is expected to rise further and remain above flood stage for several weeks to a month. Contractors have been busy installing sandbags and earthen berms to protect the facility from flooding.
Otherwise adding those sandbags would be mostly unnecessary, except maybe at the entry gates. For which the NRC is at least partially to blame since it failed to provide an adequate standard for flood protection.
On June 7, 2011, an electrical component in a switcher room caused a small fire with poisonous gases and Halon extinguisher activation which forced a partial evacuation. The fire was no longer active when the fire brigade arrived and according to officials, the public was never in any danger, however in response, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission declared an alert, which is a level 2 incident. The fire impacted a pump which is used to recirculate coolant water through the spent fuel pool. The pump was offline for an hour but backup equipment wasn't needed as estimated time to boiling temperature was 88,3 hours. The evacuation was the first at the facility since 1992, when 20,000 US gallons (76,000 l; 17,000 imp gal) of coolant leaked into a containment building from the reactor.
Now consider a scenario in which involvement by the fire brigade were necessary, and the roadways into the nuclear generating station were flooded over...

That's three nuclear power stations with three minor peripheral involvements in three major events -- the Tuscaloosa tornado, the Joplin tornado, and the Missouri near-flood-stage waters -- that have had NRC-reportable Incidents. From which one can surmise that the operators were unprepared for true disaster*situations, that both they and the NRC do not take safety seriously.
And that the NRC and the nuclear industry that they are supposed to regulate have a bit too cozy a relationship.

I mean, what is so onerous about requiring that a nuclear powerplant meet commissioning standards in order to be recertified for extended operations?
Or that they be located above flood height?
Or that emergency equipment&supplies for nuclear powerplants located in TornadoAlley be stored in tornado-proof shelters, insteada in sheds that'll blow down at the approach of a tornado?

* Such as actually getting hit by a tornado or flood.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think the cause of the future fate of 94L if it doesn't develop will be cold waters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
973 cctxshirl "wow, in my opinion, Adrian is impressive. I still haven't heard from my boss but I'm assuming he's okay. He's in Manzanillo, Mexico."

Considering that your boss went with a professional surfer, he's probably stoked about being able to catch some big rides on Adrian's storm waves.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Nice looking eye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1114 - 1064

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.