Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

Share this Blog
9
+

The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

()
()
Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1164 - 1114

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Quoting IKE:
According to someone on the blog it started 5 weeks ago.



I got about 20 or so drops on my windshield on the way home from work yesterday. It's safe to say, the rainy season has officially begun!

Enjoy!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Good observation there. I don't know if you have this link about the Gulf of Guinea. It is one of the primary tools in long-range seasonal forecasting. It has been used for a very long tim. As a matter of fact, way before satellites and radar, these waters were monitored by ships, because they knew of their importance. If you haven't seen the charts, you might find them of some interest.

Link


I say instead of some, very interesting how the stats vary from warm Gulf of Guinea to cool Gulf of Guinea.Thank you for the link.

Agree with others that this kind of discussion is very helpful for those who haven't heard about the Gulf of Guinea factor and how it works.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BTW, although, I've only been registered for a couple of weeks. I already feel I know some of you as I've been lurking for a couple of years. Particularly during hurricane season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can anyone recommend a good hurricane tracking app for my iPod Touch. I did a search on itunes and there are several. I figured as informed as you all are on hurricanes, someone would know which to get. Thanks in advance for your help.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1160. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
Low pressure in the extreme S.W.Caribbean in 60 hours. Conditions might be less hostile this time around.


Glad you are back in SF, but sorry to hear the reason. I hope we both coasts get wet this week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1159. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Thanks for the link Grothar.

Has rainy season started in Florida yet?

How about now?
According to someone on the blog it started 5 weeks ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1157. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Good observation there. I don't know if you have this link about the Gulf of Guinea. It is one of the primary tools in long-range seasonal forecasting. It has been used for a very long tim. As a matter of fact, way before satellites and radar, these waters were monitored by ships, because they knew of their importance. If you haven't seen the charts, you might find them of some interest.

Link

Yeah, well I for one was not aware of that set of records...
Thanks!

Going to need to study that.
But these bottles keep getting in the way... hang in there Hydrus.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1156. Grothar
Quoting Chicklit:


"The sky fell to the ground" the broadcaster said.
Interesting phenomena related to what happens when it's so dry the rain cannot fall to the ground.


Maybe Chicken Little was on to something.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1155. Grothar
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is why the Gulf of Guinea plays a key roll on how active or not the CV season may be. Our friend Levi has talked a lot about this and I am sure,he will have something to say soon about the dramatic cooling of that area.


Good observation there. I don't know if you have this link about the Gulf of Guinea. It is one of the primary tools in long-range seasonal forecasting. It has been used for a very long tim. As a matter of fact, way before satellites and radar, these waters were monitored by ships, because they knew of their importance. If you haven't seen the charts, you might find them of some interest.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurrykane:


lol!
If you look over at Africa, you'll notice the monsoon trough goes abruptly north, over the western Sahel area.

Look south of there...notice the wind barb? It is out of the south. Normally, it should be out of the NE (NE Trades) Both these conditions are in response to the cooling in the Gulf of Guinea...this is why we are not seeing any SAL.



Which inturn creates mosture further north, Which in turn creates stronger waves coming off of the coast, pretty close?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:



don't forget, June is not a climatologically favored month for DOOM.

(I was going to post The Chart with Homer teaching, but I see hydrus already threw it up, so I will refrain)

Homer! Homer! Homer!
LinkSchool'sOut!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1152. hydrus
Quoting Neapolitan:
Pressure is up just a bit, but winds are hanging in there:

EP, 01, 2011061012, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1072W, 120, 948, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 25, 1008, 180, 20, 0, 0,
If that high pressure would build or shift a tiny bit, we could get some of that rain in S.W.Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1151. pottery
Quoting DestinJeff:


This is an example of the kind of learning that happens on the blog.

In my case I never knew of the Gulf of Guinea, much less its impact on CV storms, etc related to hurricane season.

The learning wasn't spelled out: here is something to learn. But rather, simply by reading comments made here. Thank you for that.

Yes. That's true.
Pieces of the puzzle keep falling into place.
Wisdom, Knowledge and Good Sense. All in one place.
Unusual.
Nice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pressure is up just a bit, but winds are hanging in there:

EP, 01, 2011061012, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1072W, 120, 948, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 25, 1008, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1149. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:


This is an example of the kind of learning that happens on the blog.

In my case I never knew of the Gulf of Guinea, much less its impact on CV storms, etc related to hurricane season.

The learning wasn't spelled out: here is something to learn. But rather, simply by reading comments made here. Thank you for that.


Here is a link for you. They have always monitored the Gulf of Guinea for their long-term predictions. It is not mentioned much though. It is long, but you can see the correlation between warm and cool periods the the activity which is associated with it.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1148. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

No Prob.
Just checking each bottle for Quality of Contents first.
This may take a while...
Skip the quality junk and send the grape juice...I will do the quality checks myself. Remember , I am an expert...:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1146. hydrus
Low pressure in the extreme S.W.Caribbean in 60 hours. Conditions might be less hostile this time around.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1145. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
NO RAIN ! We are thirsty, send huge amounts of South American wine immediately..

No Prob.
Just checking each bottle for Quality of Contents first.
This may take a while...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hookedontropics:

Link

Lurk most of the time, but thought this would be an interesting discussion.


"The sky fell to the ground" the broadcaster said.
Interesting phenomena related to what happens when it's so dry the rain cannot fall to the ground.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1143. IKE

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Uh oh...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1141. hydrus
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1139. pottery
Quoting DestinJeff:


DOOM:CON is "Level Green: This round is on me!"

Remember, the Boys on the Board over at DOOM:CON are extremely conservative in raising the DOOM:CON level. It's in their bylaws. They don't want to cause mass-hysteria by elevating such a widely-monitored public emergency alert system.

you can get real-time DOOM:CON updates by following them on Twitter @doom:con and by liking them on facebook/doomcon

Shucks.
I could use a little mass hysteria.

Cant help feeling that the Atlantic will provide some soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


You think we might get any this week? It is getting desperate.


Like I always write..."I hope so, but I'm not holding my breath." Let's see what today's updates read.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1137. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:


DOOM:CON is "Level Green: This round is on me!"

Remember, the Boys on the Board over at DOOM:CON are extremely conservative in raising the DOOM:CON level. It's in their bylaws. They don't want to cause mass-hysteria by elevating such a widely-monitored public emergency alert system.

you can get real-time DOOM:CON updates by following them on Twitter @doom:con and by liking them on facebook/doomcon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1136. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:
guten Morgen, mein Damen und Herren!

RELEASE THE HOUNDS!


Guten Morgen. The morning shift is up early. At least we have something to watch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1135. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

You have no idea....
NO RAIN ! We are thirsty, send huge amounts of South American wine immediately..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1133. IKE

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1132. Grothar
Early statistical models. Dynamic ones coming soon to a theater near you.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The Miami NWS thinks our rainy season should be starting:

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH LOWS AND TROUGH BECOME
DIFFUSE AS THEY MOVE NORTH WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTHWEST. GFS STILL INDICATES A LONG WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS ERN U.S. KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AT LEAST MODERATE UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE.
DIURNAL HEATING AND LAKE/SEA BREEZES CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH WILL THEN BE STEERED EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST.


You see this? Florida's rainy season will arrive, a bit tardy, but here nonetheless. We don't need a tropical deluge to make up for the lack of H2O.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1130. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
Go west young lady!

If a pattern like this were to set up, it might be interesting....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Link

Lurk most of the time, but thought this would be an interesting discussion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1128. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


You think we might get any this week? It is getting desperate.

You have no idea....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1127. IKE

Quoting FLdewey:


Or the week after that...
lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1126. hydrus
Quoting IKE:


But...but...the rainy season will be starting next week for Florida:(


But, but, it sounded like they said it would be the backward pattern. So not much rain for us here in S.W.Florida..GFS and CMC Linkdoes not show much either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1125. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

How Sweet!
Adrian has a Baby Sister...
What's the DOOMCON level right now?


1.5
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1123. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The Miami NWS thinks our rainy season should be starting:

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH LOWS AND TROUGH BECOME
DIFFUSE AS THEY MOVE NORTH WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTHWEST. GFS STILL INDICATES A LONG WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS ERN U.S. KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AT LEAST MODERATE UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE.
DIURNAL HEATING AND LAKE/SEA BREEZES CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH WILL THEN BE STEERED EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST.


You think we might get any this week? It is getting desperate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
it seems 94 isnt strong enough to pull all the moisture out of the nw carib. seems to be leaving alot behind
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurrykane:


lol!
If you look over at Africa, you'll notice the monsoon trough goes abruptly north, over the western Sahel area.

Look south of there...notice the wind barb? It is out of the south. Normally, it should be out of the NE (NE Trades) Both these conditions are in response to the cooling in the Gulf of Guinea...this is why we are not seeing any SAL.



That is why the Gulf of Guinea plays a key roll on how active or not the CV season may be. Our friend Levi has talked a lot about this and I am sure,he will have something to say soon about the dramatic cooling of that area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morn'n all. The muggy snuck back onto the beach this morning. After an entire 36 hour break, it's back to 80 degrees and 80% humidity at 8AM...ugh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1119. Grothar
Go west young lady!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1118. DDR
Good morning
Can someone tell me if the NOGAPS model is still operation or can you post a link TIA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
and i think some of us no that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting largeeyes:
Back to 10%


GIS data: .shp

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.







plzs see post 1091
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1115. pottery
Quoting Hurrykane:


lol!
If you look over at Africa, you'll notice the monsoon trough goes abruptly north, over the western Sahel area.

Look south of there...notice the wind barb? It is out of the south. Normally, it should be out of the NE (NE Trades) Both these conditions are in response to the cooling in the Gulf of Guinea...this is why we are not seeing any SAL.


Good spotting!
I saw the zig in the ITCZ and thought 'hmmmm?' but I did not notice the barb.

Curiouser and curiouser....
now where's my Hookah!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1114. emcf30
Geoffery
Melbourne is thinking the same thing. Hope to pans out
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

TUE-THU...MID/UPR TROUGH WL BE WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN CONUS/
WRN ATLC THROUGH MID WEEK AS SFC FRONTAL TROUGH SAGS INTO CTRL FL
AND BCMS DIFFUSE. LOW LVL RIDGE WL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF FL
AS DEEP LYR FLOW WL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE W-SW. THIS WILL FAVOR
THE INTR AND EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION.
HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE (30) THROUGH THE XTD RANGE
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEE NUMBERS CREEP A LTL HIGHER
ONCE WE GET A FEW DAYS INTO THE PATTERN CHANGE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1164 - 1114

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
80 °F
Partly Cloudy