Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

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Quoting Patrap:
Rain,,day 4 in a Row.

I feel special



I am jealous man, 4 days in a row.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I knew they would.



Yea TA13, I was looking at the setup this earlier. I had a feeling they might upgrade the risk level. Crazy weather this year including the NE
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On June 1, 2011, a supercell thunderstorm developed over western Massachusetts. The storm produced an EF3 tornado that cut a 39-mile (63-kilometer) track of destruction across southwest and south-central Massachusetts. Not only did the tornado remain on the ground for many miles, but it also widened to roughly 0.5 miles (0.8 kilometers) in Brimfield State Forest.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
Adrian Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

TFP's are available
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I knew they would.

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A Powerful Mature Hurricane in the E-Pac


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Quoting Grothar:


Yo Jeff. I speak Norwegian with a German Accent, Italian with a Spanish accent, Danish with a Norwegian accent, Spanish with an Italian accent. The only languages I speak without an accent are German and English.


Can you speak French in Russian with a Haitian accent too?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3764
Rain,,day 4 in a Row.

I feel special

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hmmm...So Adrian is now a Category 3 hurricane, eh? I think it has reached its peak, and now it is time for dry air to kill it. Looks like it has some dry air entrainment on the northern part of the eyewall.



I have to say, I'm quite surprised the NHC upgraded it to Category 3.

All i can see is moist air on the north part of the eyewall, so you could have said northern part of Adrian. Also, Adrian looks familiar,
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Quoting Patrap:
,,serve with cole slaw,and cold beer
Now that he's old enough for cold beer...
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Quoting DocNDswamp:


And you know I've disagreed with the NHC on number of issues as well... I would more certainly believe Adrian is a Cat 3 right now than, say, H Karl last year was when it made landfall in a rapidly deteriorating condition, for example... Sure would have been nice to had at least one recon flight into Adrian this morn for the sake of science, although understand wasn't scheduled since wasn't direct threat to affect MX... Oh well...


Yeah, Hurricane Karl was more than likely Category 2 strength.
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Quoting Grothar:


I don't disagree with them at all on this one. I could easily see what was happening this morning. It was obvious there was an EWR and a very tight Center. I am sure those winds may not have extended that far out, but they were.


You couldn't have disagreed with them on this. Tight spiral banding and center. Small, but very compact.
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Quoting Levi32:


I'm sure most of us can agree Adrian has not intensified during the last 12 hours since the eye feature first appeared. I doubt it was a Cat 3 then. We'll see. I was probably wrong about Cat 2, but I fully disagree with Cat 3. You're all used to me disagreeing with the NHC from time to time. This is one of those times.

I'm off to work. Later all.


And you know I've disagreed with the NHC on number of issues as well... I would more certainly believe Adrian is a Cat 3 right now than, say, H Karl last year was when it made landfall in a rapidly deteriorating condition, for example... Sure would have been nice to had at least one recon flight into Adrian this morn for the sake of science, although understand wasn't scheduled since wasn't direct threat to affect MX... Oh well...
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Quoting aquak9:


No wonder no one can understand you.


As my Uncle is so fond of saying:

¿Eh? ¿Como?
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Quoting Ameister12:
Dry air still taking its toll on Adrian. The north western part of the eyewall is still quite void of new confection.
Is that chocolate confection with caramel?
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Quoting Ameister12:
Adrian isn't looking good.

I think it has reached its peak.


It doesn't look too bad, you can just see where dry air is getting to it.
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Hmmm...So Adrian is now a Category 3 hurricane, eh? I think it has reached its peak, and now it is time for dry air to kill it. Looks like it has some dry air entrainment on the northern part of the eyewall.



I have to say, I'm quite surprised the NHC upgraded it to Category 3.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
This morning we take a look back at the 2004 Hurricane Season with an hour long video that gives us the emergency management perspective of the Florida landfalling hurricanes of 2004: Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. Tell me what you think...

The Hurricanes Of 2004


I'll tell you what I think: That brings back lots and lots of memories. Frances and Jeanne were a living hell. Thinking that Ivan was coming here was a nightmare.
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Adrian isn't looking good.

I think it has reached its peak.
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Quoting Grothar:


Yo Jeff. I speak Norwegian with a German Accent, Italian with a Spanish accent, Danish with a Norwegian accent, Spanish with an Italian accent. The only languages I speak without an accent are German and English.


No wonder no one can understand you.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 168 Comments: 26082
Quoting Ameister12:
Dry air still taking its toll on Adrian. The north western part of the eyewall is still quite void of new confection.

Does it mean in's not raining cakes and pastries in the north of Adrian?
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Quoting DestinJeff:


funny story .. friend of mine and I were both in Korea together, then Germany...

when we got to Germany he was trying to speak German (Danke Schon), which he was doing but with an Americanized Korean accent.

funniest sound to ever come out of a human being.


Yo Jeff. I speak Norwegian with a German Accent, Italian with a Spanish accent, Danish with a Norwegian accent, Spanish with an Italian accent. The only languages I speak without an accent are German and English.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26529
Quoting ElConando:


Last I checked it only had a 20% chance.


Oh wait the NWS said 20%, the TWC said 60% and wunderground said 30%...let's just say 30-40%.
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When we lived in Frankfurt my wife asked the landlord in German permission to hang a paper towel rack in the kitchen. He gave us a strange look and return with his French girlfriend and asked us why we wanted to hang cans from the ceiling. From then on we just asked our questions to the girl friend. :o
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Quoting Levi32:


I'm sure most of us can agree Adrian has not intensified during the last 12 hours since the eye feature first appeared. I doubt it was a Cat 3 then. We'll see. I was probably wrong about Cat 2, but I fully disagree with Cat 3. You're all used to me disagreeing with the NHC from time to time. This is one of those times.

I'm off to work. Later all.


I don't disagree with them at all on this one. I could easily see what was happening this morning. It was obvious there was an EWR and a very tight Center. I am sure those winds may not have extended that far out, but they were.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26529
Dry air still taking its toll on Adrian. The north western part of the eyewall is still quite void of new confection.
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In case you all missed it, here was my timid analysis of Adrian posted at 10 this morning: hehehehehehe

I won't be on for a few minutes. Got to go pat myself on the back again! I just don't know why you people don't listen to me more.


I see no reason that Adrian will not become a high Cat 2 or low end Cat 3. It will probably only last for a small time. But there potential is still there. The Epac storms don't always reactive the way Atlantic storms do. It appears at the moment that the eyewall is trying to re-establish itself. As you can see on the Link animation, the convection is trying to rebuild towards the NorthEast. It may a little trouble doing it but it is is trying hard.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26529
Quoting DestinJeff:


funny story .. friend of mine and I were both in Korea together, then Germany...

when we got to Germany he was trying to speak German (Danke Schon), which he was doing but with an Americanized Korean accent.

funniest sound to ever come out of a human being.


Sounds like the Chinese restaurant I used to eat at near Frankfurt. All immigrants speaking German with a Chinese accent, then the proprietor speaking English to us, with a Chinese/German (?) accent. Of course he then loved to "practice" his English on us. lol Was a lot of fun. Especially when some of the Germans would help him find the word he was looking for. More than one mouthful of wine or beer ended up flying across a table in explosive laughter. LOL
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Quoting DestinJeff:


funny story .. friend of mine and I were both in Korea together, then Germany...

when we got to Germany he was trying to speak German (Danke Schon), which he was doing but with an Americanized Korean accent.

funniest sound to ever come out of a human being.

Both are interesting cities and have been to both. I would hate to take the trip non-stop from Korea to Germany. Hope there is an en route stop!
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Quoting ElConando:
An interesting situation

Link


Well, the memorial itself is safe; it's a big concrete slab with pillars built of concrete-filled concrete blocks topped by concrete pyramids. (Yeah, it's hurricane-proof, as well.)

VJM
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This morning we take a look back at the 2004 Hurricane Season with an hour long video that gives us the emergency management perspective of the Florida landfalling hurricanes of 2004: Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. Tell me what you think...

The Hurricanes Of 2004
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I mentioned this in the previous blog: NHC has a set of floaters up on the Wallow Fire for anyone interested. (Here's a link to the visible loop.)


Thanks for letting us know. I did not realized they put the floater on the fire. Very interesting
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Earliest EPac major since Alma in 2002.
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This would make matters worse.
Wallow Fire Update: Fire threatens El Paso Electric Transmission Lines

The Wallow Fire along Arizona's eastern border forests is heading towards a high-voltage link that deliver 40 percent of the power used by 371,000 homes and businesses in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico, said El Paso Electric.
Wallow Fire

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...if you get long term payments...,
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An interesting situation

Link

Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3764
The only people here who've never had the bitter taste of crow upon their tongue are those who've never been brave enough to make a bold prediction. I disagreed with Levi's insistent downcasting of Adrian, but I give him major props for calling it as he saw it.
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I did not expect to see a Category 3!

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24. SLU
I get the feeling that we won't see many more of these in the EPAC. Once the Atlantic heats up, the EPAC should pretty much struggle to produce significant hurricanes similar to last year.

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looks like the start of an EWRC
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54502
Quoting DocNDswamp:
LOL, would ya like a little teriyaki sauce for that crow, Levi?

Over the years it becomes a familiar dish to many of us...
;)


I'm sure most of us can agree Adrian has not intensified during the last 12 hours since the eye feature first appeared. I doubt it was a Cat 3 then. We'll see. I was probably wrong about Cat 2, but I fully disagree with Cat 3. You're all used to me disagreeing with the NHC from time to time. This is one of those times.

I'm off to work. Later all.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting Chicklit:


i thought she moved. somebody moved anyway. haha
if you really want to know, i'm getting nervous.
in 12 days leave for Seoul, then go to Stuttgart. will take a month.
i rarely travel so am starting to wind up about it.
will be in a real tizzy by the time i get out of here.
i have a nice couple staying at my house with the dog and cats and plants and fish
so won't worry too much about them anyway.

regarding getting picked on, some like it better than being ignored lol.
(i prefer being ignored, by the way!)


Seoul and then Stuttgart. Now THAT'S a trip. Sounds associated with the military. And sounds like FUN.
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thanks for update doc
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54502
,,serve with cole slaw,and cold beer
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T.C.F.W.
01E/MH/A/C3
MARK
14.75N/104.16W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54502
LOL, would ya like a little teriyaki sauce for that crow, Levi?

Over the years it becomes a familiar dish to many of us...
;)
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I mentioned this in the previous blog: NHC has a set of floaters up on the Wallow Fire for anyone interested. (Here's a link to the visible loop.)
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Those volcano pics are spectacular.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.