Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

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Cool picture from MeteoGroup UK.


"In breezy conditions, islands affect the atmosphere like rocks in a stream. The Canary Islands did this today - the cloud allows us to see the 'wakes' downstream of the islands, includes a number of vortices"
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Quoting Grothar:


I don't disagree with them at all on this one. I could easily see what was happening this morning. It was obvious there was an EWR and a very tight Center. I am sure those winds may not have extended that far out, but they were.


There was no EWRC Gro. Sorry but I have to disagree with you on this one. Microwave imagery showed no evidence of an EWRC. Dry air entrainment had begun before the eye feature had a chance to form, and thus when it finally did, it was deformed and ragged. It's still open now, and if you notice, is now filling rapidly on visible and IR satellite. The majority of the intensity models this morning were also holding Adrian at Cat 1 intensity throughout the forecast period, so I wasn't all that crazy. I will grant that Adrian looks like a low Cat 2, but nothing higher. The NHC just loves to default straight to the Dvorak estimate in the absence of recon. Here, I think that was a poor decision that made their forecast look perfect.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting FLdewey:


Pssst... tis a slight risk day... not a moderate risk day.


\NE MOD RISK
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Quoting FLdewey:


Pssst... tis a slight risk day... not a moderate risk day.


Psst...go check again. Just updated it.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W.
01E/MH/A/C3
MARK
14.65N/103.16W


You can definitely see it weakening in that loop. Dry air is getting into it, and Adrian has reached his peak at 115 mph.
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Our drought is starting to get worse here too...Although no where near the one in FL/TX



Severe drought right now.
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:
I asked this last night (I think) but can't find my post.

Can you folks indicate why none of the Pacific hurricanes/typhoons are investigated by aircraft?

I see Dvorak and sat estimates for wind speed and wasn't sure why the discussions never indicate measurements by a hurricane hunter.

Thanks for any info (or a link to where I can read about this nuiance).
only if a treat to land and if a request is made by the country being treaten
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T.C.F.W.
01E/MH/A/C3
MARK
14.65N/103.16W
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Best take the refresher,,as this Hurricane is in a fine steady state atm..

Easily

Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
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I asked this last night (I think) but can't find my post.

Can you folks indicate why none of the Pacific hurricanes/typhoons are investigated by aircraft?

I see Dvorak and sat estimates for wind speed and wasn't sure why the discussions never indicate measurements by a hurricane hunter.

Thanks for any info (or a link to where I can read about this nuiance).
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Surprised it got that strong.


Even though I forecast it to hit 115 mph before weakening, I'm still surprised it actually did also.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Dry air is eating it away.


Surprised it got that strong.
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Quoting DookiePBC:


Dang...musta just missed me in West Boynton. Oh well.


Yeah, I didn't even know it was coming.

But, starting Sunday, the rainy season is probably gonna start, but according to WPTV, it won't be until August and September before we see improvement with the drought. Some tropical storms and hurricanes will help out, but that's how the cycle goes. We need to depend on them to give us the rain.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Gee, Adrian is an ugly Cat 3. Didn't see that coming. Where is the NE quad of the eye?


Dry air is eating it away.

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Gee, Adrian is an ugly Cat 3. Didn't see that coming. Where is the NE quad of the eye?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I had forgotten u used to have this name!



Been a long time. It's funny too, my last blog entry 03/07 on the drought is eerily similar to what's going on today in SEFL. A lot of the links still apply and are updated lol.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #450 issued for all of Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, much of New York, and extreme NE Pennsylvania.



Tornadoes: Low
Strong tornadoes: Very low
Winds: High
Damaging Winds: Moderate
Hail: High
Large Hail: Moderate


DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE WATCH AREA. A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30-40 KT SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS MOSTLY
LIKELY EARLIER AS STORMS DEVELOP AND A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE GREATER THREAT
AS THE STORM OUTFLOWS MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM LINES.
DEEP WLY TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND 40-50 KT MID LEVEL WINDS INDICATE
WIDESPREAD 60-80 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED...ONCE THE LINE/S BECOMES
WELL ORGANIZED.
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good morning all
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Quoting caneswatch:


Royal Palm Beach. It got here last night, but it was a decent rain.


Dang...musta just missed me in West Boynton. Oh well.
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Quoting tkeith:
well put, WW.

I liked your avatar with with you playin guitar better... nice fish though :)


Thanks.....Doing more fishing right now rather than playing after my last show in May and taking a break with the Family..... :)
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I had forgotten u used to have this name!
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Kinda weird going through some old blogs on this name and on the drought go figure. FL has had a rough go since 06 in the drought category.
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Quoting DookiePBC:


Dang...where are you in Central PBC that you got rain yesterday?


Royal Palm Beach. It got here last night, but it was a decent rain.
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Quoting zicoille:
I don't understand why it never rains in St Barth's !
all the islanfs got rain, PR, SXM,STKITTS, HAITI, But here it the rain doesnt fall! We really need heavy heavy rains!
I would have thought u guys would have gotten some of the rain that PR got last week... but we feel ur pain here in the Bahamas and S FL.... it's really good to have some overcast skies that at least suggests it may actually rain today....

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Quoting hurricanejunky:


I hear you.

A week without A/C or power after Charley (and no generator!) was one of the worst times we've ever been thru. I work with our local EOC regularly in an IT capacity and after Charley they were relegated to HAM radio communications. We heard rumors of refrigerated 18 wheelers stacking bodies like firewood(cover up conspiracy theory?)and watching the areal footage was pretty hard hitting. Cleanup was long and hard, huge debris piles everywhere. I was delivering laptops and aircards all over the beaches (Fort Myers and Sanibel/Captiva) so we could get permits issued and rebuilding could start ASAP. People were mobbing checkpoints to get back on the islands and things were getting UGLY! It was a crazy time.

Shortly after Charley we stayed in Key West at the Hyatt Sunset Harbor for the week of Aug 22-29 and while we're there, lo and behold...Frances pops up and gets STRONG! Cat 4 STRONG. So we're sweatin' that while we're trying to vacation and forget about Charley a little bit.

Then Ivan looked like it was going to wipe out Key West (our favorite vacation spot) and come straight to Fort Myers! We were in the cone briefly...instead it walloped the panhandle.

Then, as if the state hadn't already been thru enough...Jeanne rises from the ashes to hit almost the exact same location as Frances...WOW.

I'm sure my stories are nothing compared to those who were in the eyewalls or direct path of those storms but we had our own lovely experiences nonetheless...


I was in the eyewall and direct path of both Frances and Jeanne. Me, the family, and the pets went to our cousins house before Jeanne arrived, and that was pretty scary when the wind got strong that caused my cousin to say "I didn't hear that during Frances." What an experience that year.
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Quoting DookiePBC:


Dang...where are you in Central PBC that you got rain yesterday?


hes prob in wpb
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Intensity prediction and those types of issues are based on models/observations and not an exact science and no one is right all of the time including NHC. The problem I have is with bloggers who make a prediciton way in advance, and if they happen to be right on a "lucky" guess weeks or months later (in the case of total season numbers), then they come back and tell everyone I told you so.....There is no such thing as a Tropical Nostradamous nor is anyone on here going to get a Nobel Prize anytime soon in tropical meteorology.
well put, WW.

I liked your avatar with with you playin guitar better... nice fish though :)
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The Storm Prediction Center has given today a MODERATE risk for Severe weather.

I believe the threat for Damaging Winds is moderate/high, for hail it is moderate, and for tornadoes, it is low.
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Kinda weird going through some old blogs on this name and on the drought go figure. FL has had a rough go since 06 in the drought category.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
Quoting Patrap:
A Well developed Cat 3 Hurricane

Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop





I'm not so sure this is a Category 3 hurricane. Looks more like Category 2 to me.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


I hear you.

A week without A/C or power after Charley (and no generator!) was one of the worst times we've ever been thru. I work with our local EOC regularly in an IT capacity and after Charley they were relegated to HAM radio communications. We heard rumors of refrigerated 18 wheelers stacking bodies like firewood(cover up conspiracy theory?)and watching the areal footage was pretty hard hitting. Cleanup was long and hard, huge debris piles everywhere. I was delivering laptops and aircards all over the beaches (Fort Myers and Sanibel/Captiva) so we could get permits issued and rebuilding could start ASAP. People were mobbing checkpoints to get back on the islands and things were getting UGLY! It was a crazy time.

Shortly after Charley we stayed in Key West at the Hyatt Sunset Harbor for the week of Aug 22-29 and while we're there, lo and behold...Frances pops up and gets STRONG! Cat 4 STRONG. So we're sweatin' that while we're trying to vacation and forget about Charley a little bit.

Then Ivan looked like it was going to wipe out Key West (our favorite vacation spot) and come straight to Fort Myers! We were in the cone briefly...instead it walloped the panhandle.

Then, as if the state hadn't already been thru enough...Jeanne rises from the ashes to hit almost the exact same location as Frances...WOW.

I'm sure my stories are nothing compared to those who were in the eyewalls or direct path of those storms but we had our own lovely experiences nonetheless...
Funny you should say that. When you started talking about 2004, I thought about it as the year people came to Key West to shelter.LOL Who would have thought that? But a lot of people who had large boats came down here to get out of the way of the storms.
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I don't understand why it never rains in St Barth's !
all the islanfs got rain, PR, SXM,STKITTS, HAITI, But here it the rain doesnt fall! We really need heavy heavy rains!
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A Well developed Cat 3 Hurricane

Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop



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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I am jealous man, 4 days in a row.

Heck, I'd be happy with one day of solid rain. 4 would be a dream.
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73. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
940 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING SHOWS DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT A POCKET OF MID
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THIS
DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR ALL BUT THE PANHANDLE AND COASTAL
AREAS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RIVER BUT NOT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO EVEN
MENTION IN ZONES.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting caneswatch:


Here in Central Palm Beach Co., it looks like it's going to be a second day in a row.


Dang...where are you in Central PBC that you got rain yesterday?
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Quoting Ameister12:
Dry air still taking its toll on Adrian. The north western part of the eyewall is still quite void of new confection.


Yes, the Northwest corner of Adrian is definitely without candy! :)

I agree with Levi... He looks ragged. Perhaps that TWO was written before it became so asymmetric, though honestly, I wasn't up all night watching it, so I don't know.
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Quoting Grothar:


Yo Jeff. I speak Norwegian with a German Accent, Italian with a Spanish accent, Danish with a Norwegian accent, Spanish with an Italian accent. The only languages I speak without an accent are German and English.


Now you're just showing off...impressive repertoire though. Morning Groth!
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Intensity prediction and those types of issues are based on models/observations and not an exact science and no one is right all of the time including NHC. The problem I have is with bloggers who make a prediciton way in advance, and if they happen to be right on a "lucky" guess weeks or months later (in the case of total season numbers), then they come back and tell everyone I told you so.....There is no such thing as a Tropical Nostradamous nor is anyone on here going to get a Nobel Prize anytime soon in tropical meteorology.
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Quoting caneswatch:


I'll tell you what I think: That brings back lots and lots of memories. Frances and Jeanne were a living hell. Thinking that Ivan was coming here was a nightmare.


I hear you.

A week without A/C or power after Charley (and no generator!) was one of the worst times we've ever been thru. I work with our local EOC regularly in an IT capacity and after Charley they were relegated to HAM radio communications. We heard rumors of refrigerated 18 wheelers stacking bodies like firewood(cover up conspiracy theory?)and watching the areal footage was pretty hard hitting. Cleanup was long and hard, huge debris piles everywhere. I was delivering laptops and aircards all over the beaches (Fort Myers and Sanibel/Captiva) so we could get permits issued and rebuilding could start ASAP. People were mobbing checkpoints to get back on the islands and things were getting UGLY! It was a crazy time.

Shortly after Charley we stayed in Key West at the Hyatt Sunset Harbor for the week of Aug 22-29 and while we're there, lo and behold...Frances pops up and gets STRONG! Cat 4 STRONG. So we're sweatin' that while we're trying to vacation and forget about Charley a little bit.

Then Ivan looked like it was going to wipe out Key West (our favorite vacation spot) and come straight to Fort Myers! We were in the cone briefly...instead it walloped the panhandle.

Then, as if the state hadn't already been thru enough...Jeanne rises from the ashes to hit almost the exact same location as Frances...WOW.

I'm sure my stories are nothing compared to those who were in the eyewalls or direct path of those storms but we had our own lovely experiences nonetheless...
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I am jealous man, 4 days in a row.


Here in Central Palm Beach Co., it looks like it's going to be a second day in a row.
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I wake up to a cat 3....Does anybody have a past 24 hour loop of Adrian?
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I think Adrian has undergone..... explosive intensification.
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Quoting Patrap:
Rain,,day 4 in a Row.

I feel special



I am jealous man, 4 days in a row.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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