Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

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TWC has got it wrong again!

That red should be shifted south into NYC, DC ...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I am under a heavy thunderstorm in San Juan as I am typing this post.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
122 PM AST THU JUN 9 2011

PRC007-021-025-031-033-047-051-061-063-105-127-13 5-137-139-143-
092015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0214.110609T1722Z-110609T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-COROZAL PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-GURABO PR-
NARANJITO PR-TOA ALTA PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-
GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
122 PM AST THU JUN 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...COROZAL...AGUAS BUENAS...GURABO...
NARANJITO...TOA ALTA...TRUJILLO ALTO...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...
GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...CATANO...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 121 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THE CELLS WERE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1822 6616 1828 6621 1828 6636 1849 6635
1846 6599 1843 6597 1825 6597

$$

SNELL
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


*screams at the sky*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
212. SLU
Quoting msphar:
Nice to see your work again, SLU, and I wish the best for you and all the islanders this season.


Thanks! We got it really bad with Tomas last year.
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Quoting FrancisDolarhyde:
I am the Dragon. And you call me insane. You are privy to a great becoming, but you recognize nothing. To me, you are a slug in the sun. You are an ant in the afterbirth. It is your nature to do one thing correctly. Before me, you rightly tremble. But, fear is not what you owe me. You owe me awe.

What does that even mean? ROFL!!
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210. SLU
Yeah right!

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am under a heavy thunderstorm in San Juan as I am typing this post.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
122 PM AST THU JUN 9 2011

PRC007-021-025-031-033-047-051-061-063-105-127-13 5-137-139-143-
092015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0214.110609T1722Z-110609T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-COROZAL PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-GURABO PR-
NARANJITO PR-TOA ALTA PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-
GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
122 PM AST THU JUN 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...COROZAL...AGUAS BUENAS...GURABO...
NARANJITO...TOA ALTA...TRUJILLO ALTO...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...
GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...CATANO...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 121 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THE CELLS WERE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1822 6616 1828 6621 1828 6636 1849 6635
1846 6599 1843 6597 1825 6597

$$

SNELL
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14892
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CLASSIC Northwest-flow severe weather outbreak! Love these types..

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Quoting FrancisDolarhyde:
I am the Dragon. And you call me insane. You are privy to a great becoming, but you recognize nothing. To me, you are a slug in the sun. You are an ant in the afterbirth. It is your nature to do one thing correctly. Before me, you rightly tremble. But, fear is not what you owe me. You owe me awe.


LOL What?
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if all the analog years had such similar atmospheric conditions, then why were each of them so different when it comes to where they made landfall? Did it have something to do with the bermuda high?
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Nice to see your work again, SLU, and I wish the best for you and all the islanders this season.
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Summers Are Going To Get Hotter, Stanford Scientists Say



Article Link.
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The airport at San Juan Puerto Rico last reported 87 degrees with a heat index of 110, and a dew point of 84. That's just nasty. Based on the radar though, it should be a torrential downpour there now.
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Becoming better organized.
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197. SLU
Textbook

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, it is a low pressure area.



And that's what the CMC and GFS are picking up?
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Quoting kwgirl:
I have been concentrating on getting some of that rain to move over this area. Homestead is preferable since our well fields are there, but I surely would like some fresh rain water for my garden. Once a week watering with chlorinated water helps the plants survive, but a good dose of natural rain water really helps all the flora and fauna. Of course when the rainy season really starts, I will be cussing out the mosquitoes and bufoes. Are we ever happy with any situation?


Wishcasting it to death here, lol.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A special marine warning means that waterspouts are possible or happening, right?
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192. SLU
Thanks :)
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Quoting islander101010:
little twist going around 61w 22n


Yes, it is a low pressure area.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


In all of them, I was impacted indirectly by a hurricane, hit by a hurricane, or hit several times by a hurricane.

Great...

Geeze. What a coincidence. :/
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I noticed something. Fay 2008 formed while overland PR and strengthened while overland Florida. And 1951 was the only year that PR was not affected by a cyclone directly.


In all of them, I was impacted indirectly by a hurricane, hit by a hurricane, or hit several times by a hurricane.

Great...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Quoting SLU:
Here is a very interesting observation that I made about the ongoing 2011 Atlantic hurricane season:

The analog years for 2011 are 1951, 1981, 1989, 1996 and 2008. Analog years are years with similar atmospheric patterns as the current year and they can be used to give an insight as to what to expect during the current hurricane season.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image showing the tracks of all 62 tropical cyclones in the analog years for 2011 indicating a heavy bias towards development in the main development region (MDR).

Storm tracks for the analog years:

1951 featured 8 hurricanes including category 3 Hurricane Able in May which is still the most powerful hurricane to develop outside the hurricane season, category 4 Hurricane Charlie which blasted through the Caribbean along a path similar to that of Dean in 2007, another Caribbean major hurricane called Dog and a rare category 5 Hurricane Easy in the south-western Atlantic.



1981 featured another May cyclone in Tropical Storm Arlene in early May and a series of four powerful September hurricanes that brushed the north eastern Caribbean and recurved harmlessly out to sea without affecting the US.



1989 featured 4 named storms by August 1st and a very active Cape Verde season in which two long-tracked classical Cape Verde-type major hurricanes formed. Category 5 Hurricane Hugo levelled the north eastern Caribbean and also caused great damage in the Carolinas and category 4 Hurricane Gabrielle which became one of the largest hurricanes to ever form in the Atlantic.



1996 was also a very active Cape Verde season which had 6 major hurricanes which is a record bettered by only the 1950, 1961 and 2005 seasons. The north eastern Caribbean and the east coast of the US took a battering. Hurricane Bertha was a rare July Cape Verde hurricane which was later followed by powerful hurricanes Edouard, Fran and Hortense.



In 2008, we saw the formation of major hurricanes in each month from July to November which was the 1st time this had ever been observed, four named storms by August 1st and a battering for the Caribbean and the US coastline.



There are several similarities with each of these seasons:

1. All of the seasons had a very early start with 1951 and 1981 having tropical cyclones in May.

2. Hurricane Able of 1951 was the most powerful hurricane ever in May.

3. Hurricane Bertha of 1996 was the easternmost forming tropical storm, hurricane and major hurricane in the Atlantic before August 1st.

4. Hurricane Bertha of 2008 broke the records for the longest-lived July Atlantic tropical cyclone at 17 days, the easternmost forming tropical storm at 24.7W, easternmost forming hurricane at 50.2W, and easternmost-forming pre-August major hurricane at 52.1W (records all previously held by 1996's Bertha). Bertha is also the sixth strongest pre-August Atlantic tropical cyclone on record and was the third strongest July storm on record, behind Dennis and Emily of 2005.

5. Pre-August 1st named storm days south of 25N, east of 75W is a major indicator of an active hurricane season. The only analog year not to feature this is 1951 which did have a category 3 hurricane in May in the sub-tropical Atlantic.

6. All of the analog years had very active Cape Verde seasons with an average of 5.6 named storms forming east of 60W.

7. Twenty-eight out of the total of sixty-two named storms in these 5 seasons (or 45%) formed east of 60W.

8. The northern Caribbean, the US east coast and the Gulf coast west of New Orleans have been the most severely affected areas in these analog years.

9. The analog years produced an average of 2.8 named storms, 1.0 hurricanes and 0.6 major hurricanes by August 1st.

Based on that information, I believe we may see the follow this year:

1. An early start to the season.

2. Between 2 %u2013 4 named storms, 1 %u2013 2 hurricanes and probably a 60% chance of a major hurricane by August 1st.

3. A very active Cape Verde season with about 6 %u2013 8 named storms east of 60W as a result of the above average SSTs.

4. Pre-August 1st named storm days east of 75W and south of 25N.

5. The north eastern Caribbean and US east coast may be at high risk for multiple landfalling tropical cyclones.

6. The likelihood of a long tracked Cape Verde hurricane staying far enough to the south to enter the Caribbean and affect the US.





I noticed something. Fay 2008 formed while overland PR and strengthened while overland Florida. And 1951 was the only analog year that you listed where PR was not affected by a cyclone directly.
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In Historic Flooding On Mississippi River, A Missed Opportunity To Rebuild Louisiana

PLAQUEMINES PARISH, La. -- For decades, a mixture of industrial development and erosion has carved away at southern Louisiana, eliminating nearly 2,000 square miles of land and making the area increasingly vulnerable to storms that sweep in from the Gulf of Mexico.

Every day the Mississippi River delivers the raw materials required to replenish this lost territory: mud and sand that drop at the mouth of the waterway and would amass there, were nature allowed to run its course.

But nature has proven no match for the century-long federal governance of the Mississippi as a vital marine highway: Five enormous ships operated by the federal government dredge the sediment collecting at the mouth of the river daily, then carry much of it into open waters offshore and dump it there, sending it into oblivion.

This year’s historic flooding along the Mississippi River resonated as a threat to low-lying communities, sending families scrambling to preserve homes and property. But it was also a missed opportunity on an epic scale, say conservationists: The heavy rains that swelled the Mississippi loaded it with a massive supply of natural building materials that could have buttressed the Gulf Coast land. Instead, levees built to tame the river directed this sediment down to the mouth, where the federal ships are hauling it away.

For the complete article and a
"Mouse over to see before and after photos of the disappearance of Louisiana's coast"
Click Here.
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Quoting SLU:
Here is a very interesting observation that I made about the ongoing 2011 Atlantic hurricane season:

The analog years for 2011 are 1951, 1981, 1989, 1996 and 2008. Analog years are years with similar atmospheric patterns as the current year and they can be used to give an insight as to what to expect during the current hurricane season.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image showing the tracks of all 62 tropical cyclones in the analog years for 2011 indicating a heavy bias towards development in the main development region (MDR).

Storm tracks for the analog years:

1951 featured 8 hurricanes including category 3 Hurricane Able in May which is still the most powerful hurricane to develop outside the hurricane season, category 4 Hurricane Charlie which blasted through the Caribbean along a path similar to that of Dean in 2007, another Caribbean major hurricane called Dog and a rare category 5 Hurricane Easy in the south-western Atlantic.



1981 featured another May cyclone in Tropical Storm Arlene in early May and a series of four powerful September hurricanes that brushed the north eastern Caribbean and recurved harmlessly out to sea without affecting the US.



1989 featured 4 named storms by August 1st and a very active Cape Verde season in which two long-tracked classical Cape Verde-type major hurricanes formed. Category 5 Hurricane Hugo levelled the north eastern Caribbean and also caused great damage in the Carolinas and category 4 Hurricane Gabrielle which became one of the largest hurricanes to ever form in the Atlantic.



1996 was also a very active Cape Verde season which had 6 major hurricanes which is a record bettered by only the 1950, 1961 and 2005 seasons. The north eastern Caribbean and the east coast of the US took a battering. Hurricane Bertha was a rare July Cape Verde hurricane which was later followed by powerful hurricanes Edouard, Fran and Hortense.



In 2008, we saw the formation of major hurricanes in each month from July to November which was the 1st time this had ever been observed, four named storms by August 1st and a battering for the Caribbean and the US coastline.



There are several similarities with each of these seasons:

1. All of the seasons had a very early start with 1951 and 1981 having tropical cyclones in May.

2. Hurricane Able of 1951 was the most powerful hurricane ever in May.

3. Hurricane Bertha of 1996 was the easternmost forming tropical storm, hurricane and major hurricane in the Atlantic before August 1st.

4. Hurricane Bertha of 2008 broke the records for the longest-lived July Atlantic tropical cyclone at 17 days, the easternmost forming tropical storm at 24.7°W, easternmost forming hurricane at 50.2°W, and easternmost-forming pre-August major hurricane at 52.1°W (records all previously held by 1996's Bertha). Bertha is also the sixth strongest pre-August Atlantic tropical cyclone on record and was the third strongest July storm on record, behind Dennis and Emily of 2005.

5. Pre-August 1st named storm days south of 25N, east of 75W is a major indicator of an active hurricane season. The only analog year not to feature this is 1951 which did have a category 3 hurricane in May in the sub-tropical Atlantic.

6. All of the analog years had very active Cape Verde seasons with an average of 5.6 named storms forming east of 60W.

7. Twenty-eight out of the total of sixty-two named storms in these 5 seasons (or 45%) formed east of 60W.

8. The northern Caribbean, the US east coast and the Gulf coast west of New Orleans have been the most severely affected areas in these analog years.

9. The analog years produced an average of 2.8 named storms, 1.0 hurricanes and 0.6 major hurricanes by August 1st.

Based on that information, I believe we may see the follow this year:

1. An early start to the season.

2. Between 2 – 4 named storms, 1 – 2 hurricanes and probably a 60% chance of a major hurricane by August 1st.

3. A very active Cape Verde season with about 6 – 8 named storms east of 60W as a result of the above average SSTs.

4. Pre-August 1st named storm days east of 75W and south of 25N.

5. The north eastern Caribbean and US east coast may be at high risk for multiple landfalling tropical cyclones.

6. The likelihood of a long tracked Cape Verde hurricane staying far enough to the south to enter the Caribbean and affect the US.






Interesting, thanks for your time to find all that information and write it for us.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
little twist going around 61w 22n
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5001
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Our drought is starting to get worse here too...Although no where near the one in FL/TX



Severe drought right now.
Over 51 percent of Texas is in Exceptional Drought, i do not think any state needs rain like Texas if you look at the Drought Monitors.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Models are picking up on a weak feature developing in that area and tracking N to NNW, just off or just over the FL east coast depending on which you look at.
I have been concentrating on getting some of that rain to move over this area. Homestead is preferable since our well fields are there, but I surely would like some fresh rain water for my garden. Once a week watering with chlorinated water helps the plants survive, but a good dose of natural rain water really helps all the flora and fauna. Of course when the rainy season really starts, I will be cussing out the mosquitoes and bufoes. Are we ever happy with any situation?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
178. SLU
Here is a very interesting observation that I made about the ongoing 2011 Atlantic hurricane season:

The analog years for 2011 are 1951, 1981, 1989, 1996 and 2008. Analog years are years with similar atmospheric patterns as the current year and they can be used to give an insight as to what to expect during the current hurricane season.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image showing the tracks of all 62 tropical cyclones in the analog years for 2011 indicating a heavy bias towards development in the main development region (MDR).

Storm tracks for the analog years:

1951 featured 8 hurricanes including category 3 Hurricane Able in May which is still the most powerful hurricane to develop outside the hurricane season, category 4 Hurricane Charlie which blasted through the Caribbean along a path similar to that of Dean in 2007, another Caribbean major hurricane called Dog and a rare category 5 Hurricane Easy in the south-western Atlantic.



1981 featured another May cyclone in Tropical Storm Arlene in early May and a series of four powerful September hurricanes that brushed the north eastern Caribbean and recurved harmlessly out to sea without affecting the US.



1989 featured 4 named storms by August 1st and a very active Cape Verde season in which two long-tracked classical Cape Verde-type major hurricanes formed. Category 5 Hurricane Hugo levelled the north eastern Caribbean and also caused great damage in the Carolinas and category 4 Hurricane Gabrielle which became one of the largest hurricanes to ever form in the Atlantic.



1996 was also a very active Cape Verde season which had 6 major hurricanes which is a record bettered by only the 1950, 1961 and 2005 seasons. The north eastern Caribbean and the east coast of the US took a battering. Hurricane Bertha was a rare July Cape Verde hurricane which was later followed by powerful hurricanes Edouard, Fran and Hortense.



In 2008, we saw the formation of major hurricanes in each month from July to November which was the 1st time this had ever been observed, four named storms by August 1st and a battering for the Caribbean and the US coastline.



There are several similarities with each of these seasons:

1. All of the seasons had a very early start with 1951 and 1981 having tropical cyclones in May.

2. Hurricane Able of 1951 was the most powerful hurricane ever in May.

3. Hurricane Bertha of 1996 was the easternmost forming tropical storm, hurricane and major hurricane in the Atlantic before August 1st.

4. Hurricane Bertha of 2008 broke the records for the longest-lived July Atlantic tropical cyclone at 17 days, the easternmost forming tropical storm at 24.7°W, easternmost forming hurricane at 50.2°W, and easternmost-forming pre-August major hurricane at 52.1°W (records all previously held by 1996's Bertha). Bertha is also the sixth strongest pre-August Atlantic tropical cyclone on record and was the third strongest July storm on record, behind Dennis and Emily of 2005.

5. Pre-August 1st named storm days south of 25N, east of 75W is a major indicator of an active hurricane season. The only analog year not to feature this is 1951 which did have a category 3 hurricane in May in the sub-tropical Atlantic.

6. All of the analog years had very active Cape Verde seasons with an average of 5.6 named storms forming east of 60W.

7. Twenty-eight out of the total of sixty-two named storms in these 5 seasons (or 45%) formed east of 60W.

8. The northern Caribbean, the US east coast and the Gulf coast west of New Orleans have been the most severely affected areas in these analog years.

9. The analog years produced an average of 2.8 named storms, 1.0 hurricanes and 0.6 major hurricanes by August 1st.

Based on that information, I believe we may see the follow this year:

1. An early start to the season.

2. Between 2 – 4 named storms, 1 – 2 hurricanes and probably a 60% chance of a major hurricane by August 1st.

3. A very active Cape Verde season with about 6 – 8 named storms east of 60W as a result of the above average SSTs.

4. Pre-August 1st named storm days east of 75W and south of 25N.

5. The north eastern Caribbean and US east coast may be at high risk for multiple landfalling tropical cyclones.

6. The likelihood of a long tracked Cape Verde hurricane staying far enough to the south to enter the Caribbean and affect the US.




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Quoting Chicklit:


Really?!
Anyway, here's Adrian. What time was this?


Last night at 8:00 PM EST.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It could.

Hopefully.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Models are picking up on a weak feature developing in that area and tracking N to NNW, just off or just over the FL east coast depending on which you look at.


Really?!
Anyway, here's Adrian. What time was this?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Blargh. Can't it be sooner?!


It could.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Models are picking up on a weak feature developing in that area and tracking N to NNW, just off or just over the FL east coast depending on which you look at.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


And if you look back at the warnings from the NHC, that morning, warnings were included further up the west coast.


I do remember that.

I also remember that all of the counties surrounding Palm Beach Co. had cancelled school in case of emergency, while the county didn't. When I was in middle school at the time, we were forced out early on that day. The superintendent had made other stupid decisions like that with hurricanes and tropical storms before, risking the students safety, and he has been forced out a few months ago.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Soon...


Blargh. Can't it be sooner?!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


1.) Seen anymore trackers today?

2.) How'd the rain dance go? ;)


1. Today has been tracker-free so far
2. Not enough people yet to do the rain dance

laterz...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 177 Comments: 26644
Quoting Hurrykane:


Did the central pressure drop at least 42mb in less than a 24 hour period?


Instead of going through advisories to see, its pressure drop from the time it was TD to now has been 46 millibars, and it has been around for 3 days now, so...I would say no.

I may have that completely wrong though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
I am going to be watching the Ncenteral coast of Cuba over the next several hours, kinda interesting.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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