Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

TORNADO WATCH 453 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

IAC007-053-071-145-159-173-185-100300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0453.110609T2005Z-110610T0300Z/

IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

APPANOOSE DECATUR FREMONT
PAGE RINGGOLD TAYLOR
WAYNE
$$
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
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All of Long Island is about to get hammered with severe weather in the next 2 hours or so.. Impressive squall line forming in Connecticut.

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in other news


• Final La Niña Advisory...ENSO-neutral conditions have developed



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
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Quoting caneswatch:


3-4 days out, he will get into it. Right now, it's in some decent waters. Like I said, he's taking advantage of the conditions around him.



I didn't say it was in cooler waters now. Why don't you go back and read my entry and see what I actually wrote. LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

TORNADO WATCH 453 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC003-005-013-027-031-041-043-045-059-061-085-08 7-091-103-111-
117-121-127-131-139-149-161-177-197-201-209-10030 0-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0453.110609T2005Z-110610T0300Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON ATCHISON BROWN
CLAY COFFEY DICKINSON
DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON
MARSHALL MIAMI MORRIS
NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE
RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE
$$
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
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Quoting Grothar:


I never mentioned wind shear, I mentioned cooler waters.


3-4 days out, he will get into it. Right now, it's in some decent waters. Like I said, he's taking advantage of the conditions around him.
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Thats the one i'm in PcolaDan! I'm interested to see if she puts down the winds they are saying.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

TORNADO WATCH 453 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-06 1-063-075-079-
081-087-089-095-101-107-115-117-121-129-147-159-1 65-171-175-177-
195-197-211-227-100300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0453.110609T2005Z-110610T0300Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CASS CHARITON CLAY
CLINTON COOPER DAVIESS
DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY
HARRISON HOLT HOWARD
JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
MERCER NODAWAY PETTIS
PLATTE PUTNAM RANDOLPH
RAY SALINE SCHUYLER
SULLIVAN WORTH
$$


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One of the longer lists I've seen.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WORCESTER...LEOMINSTER...FITCHBURG...
ESSEX COUNTY IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEWBURYPORT...LYNN...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...BEVERLY...
NORTH CENTRAL NORFOLK COUNTY IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BROOKLINE...
SUFFOLK COUNTY IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BOSTON...
MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WALTHAM...SOMERVILLE...NEWTON...
LOWELL...FRAMINGHAM...CAMBRIDGE...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CHESHIRE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NASHUA...MANCHESTER...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
EAST CENTRAL HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 424 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MANCHESTER TO HARDWICK...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MANCHESTER TO 15 MILES EAST OF
AMHERST...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...ASHBY...BARRE...
HUBBARDSTON...WESTMINSTER...BROOKLINE...MERRIMACK. ..NEW
BRAINTREE...TOWNSEND...LITCHFIELD...HOLLIS...OAKHA M...LUNENBURG...
PRINCETON...PEPPERELL...RUTLAND...HUDSON...SHIRLEY ...GROTON...
PAXTON...DUNSTABLE...STERLING...HOLDEN...AYER...TY NGSBORO...WEST
BOYLSTON...PELHAM...LANCASTER...CLINTON...HARVARD. ..BOYLSTON...
WESTFORD...LITTLETON...BOLTON...DRACUT...BOXBOROUG H...CHELMSFORD...
BERLIN...SHREWSBURY...METHUEN...ACTON...HAVERHILL. ..MERRIMAC...
STOW...NORTHBOROUGH...CARLISLE...TEWKSBURY...NEWBU RY...WEST
NEWBURY...AMESBURY...NORTH ANDOVER...MAYNARD...MARLBOROUGH...
GROVELAND...ANDOVER...BILLERICA...WESTBOROUGH...CO NCORD...
GEORGETOWN...SOUTHBOROUGH...SALISBURY...BEDFORD... WILMINGTON...
SUDBURY...BURLINGTON...BOXFORD...WAYLAND...LINCOLN ...LEXINGTON...
ASHLAND...READING...NORTH READING...ROWLEY...MIDDLETON...WOBURN...
TOPSFIELD...WESTON...WINCHESTER...LYNNFIELD...NATI CK...WAKEFIELD...
STONEHAM...ARLINGTON...IPSWICH...WELLESLEY...DANVE RS...BELMONT...
SHERBORN...HAMILTON...WATERTOWN...PEABODY...MEDFOR D...WENHAM...
MELROSE...SAUGUS...MALDEN...NEEDHAM...DOVER...EVER ETT...ESSEX...
CHELSEA...SALEM...REVERE...DEDHAM...WESTWOOD...MAN CHESTER...
WINTHROP...ROCKPORT...NAHANT...MARBLEHEAD AND SWAMPSCOTT.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Jax82:
Its 96 degrees in NYC right now, crazyness.


Washington DC 102 was the high. They are down to 101 now. Like you said, Crazy
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Just look at the Taunton MA radar with all the warnings. Under a warning now here in Methuen MA. The part near Fitchburg along the border of NH looks real nasty but might stay just to my south.
Link
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Quoting Levi32:


Doubtful. I believe it's peaked. Wind shear isn't everything.


I never mentioned wind shear, I mentioned cooler waters.
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http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/2011060912/850 vort5.png

Only a day and half left  for Adrian as a hurricane, if the the canadian model is accurate today.
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Quoting Levi32:


Meteorological interest. A chance to test forecasting skills without any land interest involved. That's part of why I have been fairly focused on Adrian, more so than I usually am with EPAC systems.



wernt you saying this morning that this storm would not even achieve strong cat 2... I am not in anyway critisizing you but what did you miss in your forecast?
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting swirlingeddie:
Why  is adrian of any interest, except shipping?


Pretty pictures. (And what Levi said.)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
With the ring of deep convection around Adrian's eye finally closing again, he has the look of a strong Cat 2 to me. Officially it will be whatever the Dvorak estimates are, because that's the route the NHC goes with these systems. It seems Adrian was able to defy my prediction of staying down at Cat 1, but I maintain that he doesn't look like a major given the inconsistent core structure today. That of course is a subjective opinion without recon evidence.

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Are you going to make a leap at an intensity forecast?
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Storms consolidating into a squall line, CLASSIC Northeast Summer Severe Weather Outbreak.
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Quoting swirlingeddie:
Why is adrian of any interest, except shipping?


Meteorological interest. A chance to test forecasting skills without any land interest involved. That's part of why I have been fairly focused on Adrian, more so than I usually am with EPAC systems.
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Why  is adrian of any interest, except shipping?
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yo,..Adrian

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385. srada
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Quoting Grothar:
I don't know how anyone could have looked at this earlier today and not see the intensification process. I believe it may even get a bit stronger before heading into cooler water.




Doubtful. I believe it's peaked. Wind shear isn't everything.
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BYE SYLVER HAVE A NICE SUMMER
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KOTG if you're around can you post one of those awesome radar loops from the Plymouth state site of the line of storms in the Northeast? I love that site but can never figure out how to post anything from it.
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Quoting CalebDancemastah:

Post 372.
I was looking at that earlier, and the WV image for that area.
Almost no SAL at all, which is unusual for June...
There was a big area of cloud yesterday that has mostly dispersed.
But the one area that has kept looking good is now between 20w-30w.
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The Dust is not bad off of Africa for this time of the yr. the ITCZ is still too far south, & Cape Verde season doesn't typically get under way until August.
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Looks like a no, the dry, high pressure is not caving in.

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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Intensity prediction and those types of issues are based on models/observations and not an exact science and no one is right all of the time including NHC. The problem I have is with bloggers who make a prediciton way in advance, and if they happen to be right on a "lucky" guess weeks or months later (in the case of total season numbers), then they come back and tell everyone I told you so.....There is no such thing as a Tropical Nostradamous nor is anyone on here going to get a Nobel Prize anytime soon in tropical meteorology.
I agree. Luck is very much a part of forecasting, imo.


There will always be a most/more likely forecast, and although satellites, radars, soundings, buoys, and other observational tools will continually improve our forecast skill, I don't believe we will ever be able to have exact forecasts.

As a result, some will be right and some will be wrong. Some will be right more than others, but once again, this isn't an exact science, everyone will be wrong eventually.
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Quoting cnrdcnrs:


Look who's talkin'........
its because stormtop made a bold forecast no one including the nhc forecasted
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Quoting swirlingeddie:
islander101010- You see any low level center's forming in that mess that used be 94L? What you said may happen if pressures keep dropping.


its going to be its own entity even though some energy has been passed over
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Quoting Jedkins01:


dude just shut it, stop being jealous that people at the NHC are experts and you aren't. If you want to know why they do what they do, then go through sweat and tears it takes to get there in school, but until then, stop complaining. I am going to school for meteorology and I am sick of people who barely know anything acting like they know more than people with a Doctorate in meteorology, its absurd.





Very similar to the Climate Change debate. Thousands of silly PHD toting climate scientists! What can they possibly know?
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Pacific Transitions from La Niña to Neutral Phase

Link
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Quoting jpritch:


The baja quakes are on an active fault. The Arkansas ones are at a natural gas fracking site. There have been some fairly recent clusters at an enhanced geothermal fracking site in southern Nevada, too


These Arkansas quakes are less than 80 miles from the New Madrid fault too. I dont know if there is any corelation, but it is interesting.
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islander101010- You see any low level center's forming in that mess that used be 94L? What you said may happen if pressures keep dropping.


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Quoting IceCoast:


Ya pretty much now way it will miss me...


Or my sibs in W. MA. Stay safe!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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