Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

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Quoting JupiterKen:
RitaEvac: your graphics are still stretching the blog. They should be 500 pixels wide; yours are always 501.


Tools/Compatibility View should fix it for you.
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Did someone say "pre 99L"?!?!?!
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Quoting Grothar:


I don't know, it looked like it was going for a Cat 3 this morning when I mentioned it. Of course I didn't have the Dvorak analysis available to me. Just my little Crystal Ball.
oh boy...

what is your crystal ball currently saying for adrian's future? I'm gonna write this one down
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RitaEvac: your graphics are still stretching the blog. They should be 500 pixels wide; yours are always 501. (also applies to galvestonhurricane)
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Quoting Grothar:


Boy, I have been posting all these interesting posts on Adrian and the others systems and not one response. I make one stupid remark and it's all over the blog. I have a feeling you people aren't taking me seriously. I nailed this storm right to its Cat 3 status and direction and not a word. (LOL) How was that rant Chicklit.


Sorry, Grothar. I would have given you credit earlier but, my weeds are packing it in. They are saying this drought is too much for them and they are outta here! I am just helping them get bus tickets to Death Valley where they are saying it is not so dry. ..... I am going to miss them. They were the only thing "green" left in my yard. Astro turf is starting to look better to me now.
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Quoting tulsahurrcane:



Reference needed. Can you please direct me to the point in time that this blog reached consensus.
I rest my case...

:)
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Quoting DestinJeff:


well, second only to three or more bloggers agreeing to the contrary, or differing, position.
yes, but from the looks of it, their analysis has been quite subjective.

whereas the nhc's analysis, while also somewhat subjective, is actually based on a written scale and has proven over the decades to be fairly accurate
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..ALL THESE INVESTS ARE YOURS,EXCEPT 99L

ATTEMPT NO RECON THERE...

USE THEM TOGETHER,USE THEM IN PEACE
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting DestinJeff:


You are forgetting (imagine that) to factor in the EPAC quotient. Storms out there just don't get the same attention.

Although, I did see your posts regarding its status and commented in kind.


I know. some of those EPAC storms can be boring even when they are 5's and I did see your comment. You're a good boy Jeff. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Newest drought monitor release
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Quoting DestinJeff:


default to blog comments consensus.
no such animal...
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Quoting swirlingeddie:
Why is adrian of any interest
if you don't find a cat 3 hurricane interesting, idk if this blog is meant for you lol
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Quoting DestinJeff:


default to blog comments consensus.



Reference needed. Can you please direct me to the point in time that this blog reached consensus.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
What else are they supposed to do in the absence of recon?


I don't know, it looked like it was going for a Cat 3 this morning when I mentioned it. Of course I didn't have the Dvorak analysis available to me. Just my little Crystal Ball.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
I wasn't saying what you were saying I said you said I said you said...I was saying what you were saying you said I said you said I said...........'nuff said......

just sayin'...
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awwww, man...are we still in no-humor mode? (and thanks a LOT chicklit for getting the JohnnyCash song stuck in my head)
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Quoting DestinJeff:


default to blog comments consensus.
exactly lol

The entire point of the Dvorak technique is to remove as much subjectivity as possible. While it is not entirely objective, nor perfectly accurate, it's the best option in the absence of recon.
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Quoting Chicklit:


trust me you don't need to know.
these are the same kind of daily conversations i have with my mother.


Boy, I have been posting all these interesting posts on Adrian and the others systems and not one response. I make one stupid remark and it's all over the blog. I have a feeling you people aren't taking me seriously. I nailed this storm right to its Cat 3 status and direction and not a word. (LOL) How was that rant Chicklit.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting pottery:

Priceless!


Indeed
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Grothar:


Well, if you knew what I said, why did you say I said what I didn't say? Answer me that!


What? LOL
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting Chicklit:


trust me you don't need to know.
these are the same kind of daily conversations i have with my mother.

Priceless!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24916
Quoting RitaEvac:
Over 57% of the state of TX is in a Exceptional drought, TX is BIG, and 57% of it is dead where it stands
Unfortunately I am in the middle of it, would not be so bad if the past 4 or 5 months it was not 10 to 15 degrees hotter than normal, now go 200 miles north around Dallas and they are in good shape moisture wise. There are parts of Texas that have had No rain in 2011.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
What else are they supposed to do in the absence of recon?

Ladder, roof, binoculars.
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5.8 / 953.5mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.0 6.0

Speaks for itself
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
Quoting PcolaDan:
I don't understand what those two are saying. :|


trust me you don't need to know.
these are the same kind of daily conversations i have with my mother.
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I don't understand what those two are saying. :|
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting BobinTampa:


did either of you actually laugh out loud??



Yes! Wiping up spilled coffee as we speak.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Levi32:


There was no EWRC Gro. Sorry but I have to disagree with you on this one. Microwave imagery showed no evidence of an EWRC. Dry air entrainment had begun before the eye feature had a chance to form, and thus when it finally did, it was deformed and ragged. It's still open now, and if you notice, is now filling rapidly on visible and IR satellite. The majority of the intensity models this morning were also holding Adrian at Cat 1 intensity throughout the forecast period, so I wasn't all that crazy. I will grant that Adrian looks like a low Cat 2, but nothing higher. The NHC just loves to default straight to the Dvorak estimate in the absence of recon. Here, I think that was a poor decision that made their forecast look perfect.
What else are they supposed to do in the absence of recon?
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Quoting caneswatch:


LOL I know what you said. I was just saying what I said though.


Well, if you knew what I said, why did you say I said what I didn't say? Answer me that!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Jax82:
Its 96 degrees in NYC right now, crazyness.

Couple of days of heat then it will be in the 70s, i think NY can have a few days of heat
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting caneswatch:


LOL I know what you said. I was just saying what I said though.


did either of you actually laugh out loud??
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Tremendous circulation. Convection wrapped around almost 98% of the center. I believe it is possible that the position of the satellite is perhaps, maybe, possibly, not giving a good image of the center. Looks like it may be getting just a little stronger.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Over 57% of the state of TX is in a Exceptional drought, TX is BIG, and 57% of it is dead where it stands
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I do believe Adrian is moving west and looking like a CAT 3.

LinkWVLoop
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Soyuz crew closing in LIVE to the ISS
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting Grothar:



I didn't say it was in cooler waters now. Why don't you go back and read my entry and see what I actually wrote. LOL


LOL I know what you said. I was just saying what I said though.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Avila thinks annular

Excerpt:



THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...BUT
SINCE ADRIAN IS BECOMING ANNULAR...IT WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AND WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL THE CIRCULATION
BECOMES WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.



Link
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Quoting dolphin13:


Excellent job hurricanejunky!!!! I'd forgotten how intense Frances and Jeanne were and how much destruction they caused. Am a St. Lucie County resident and was an ER nurse that worked many days before, during, and after those storms. I really took for granted all of the community resources we had until we didn't have them anymore, at least for the first few days (which is when the situation is most intense, of course). Definately appreciate all the help that was sent to us! It is tough being a victim AND a provider during those times, but we were sent National Guards, FEMA nurses, and volunteers that helped us keep our perspective and sanity! Glad I only had to do it twice and not all four times like the emergency management teams!

Very well done!


Glad you enjoyed it...definitely an interesting video...
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I fell into a burnin' ring of fire --
I went down, down, down
And the flames went higher,
And it burns, burns, burns,
The ring of fire, the ring of fire.






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Quoting PcolaDan:
One of the longer lists I've seen.


Taunton CWA is large - covers most of MA, all RI, and part of NH and CT.
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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

TORNADO WATCH 453 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NEC067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-151-100300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0453.110609T2005Z-110610T0300Z/

NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LANCASTER NEMAHA OTOE
PAWNEE RICHARDSON SALINE
$$


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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

TORNADO WATCH 453 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

IAC007-053-071-145-159-173-185-100300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0453.110609T2005Z-110610T0300Z/

IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

APPANOOSE DECATUR FREMONT
PAGE RINGGOLD TAYLOR
WAYNE
$$
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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