Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

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Got a few gusts 40-45 mph here in Northeast MA when the line moved through. A few house shakers and pretty vivid lightning. Few branches snapped off, and it also blew a small basketball hoop into the pool. A pretty cool storm to witness.
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Quoting aquak9:
P'cola- is it already dark up there? looks like night time.


Too early to be that dark. It's only 6:00 and that far north sunset is about 8:30.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Any one see the proto tropical wave over Asia? It looks like a thretter in the future.
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Quoting Grothar:


It is bad. My geckos now wait outside my door and wait for me to hose them down. It really is getting serious. The Southwest is really bad, too.



Interesting that you would mention that. I actually have a lizard that lives next to my garden hose. I could have sworn I saw him holding a sign that says, "Give me water or I loose the bugs!". I'm just glad he doesn't have any hounds!
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P'cola- is it already dark up there? looks like night time.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26675
Quoting unruly:
TY and no I havent stopped by his blog yet, yet...


I remember him saying the Canucks would win....

Too scared I guess LOL
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting Jedkins01:


because people respect others in person, but people seem to get a kick out of saying ridiculous things online lol.
Yes I agree. However, people sometimes say things considered to be ridiculous in person , and are not reffered to as "trolls"
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Quoting caneswatch:


Unruly, I never told you how much I liked your avatar.

Speaking of that, anybody seen Orca today? LOL
TY and no I havent stopped by his blog yet....... yet...
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Ugly clouds on the traffic web cams in the I95 Bridgeport CT area.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting PcolaDan:
What did one cell say to the other cells? Let's all go too the beach together.

HA HA HA! That system just passed me. I wrote a small bit about it on my blog. It was FUN!!!
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Quoting presslord:


you have obviously never been at my house when my mother in law is visiting...
Touche' OK mother in laws notwithstanding...lol
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Quoting unruly:
Categorically UNTRUE....If we were all sitting around a table having coffee, there would be no arguing...Which brings me to a question. Why are there no Trolls at a coffee table, but they abound here?


Unruly, I never told you how much I liked your avatar.

Speaking of that, anybody seen Orca today? LOL
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting presslord:
there's an app which combines You Tube, twitter and Facebook,,,

it's called YouTwitFace




I knew they would make an app for that.

Excellent, presslord! +1000
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If the eye fully clears out then we will have a cat 4
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Quoting unruly:
Categorically UNTRUE....If we were all sitting around a table having coffee, there would be no arguing...Which brings me to a question. Why are there no Trolls at a coffee table, but they abound here?


because people respect others in person, but people seem to get a kick out of saying ridiculous things online lol.
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What did one cell say to the other cells? Let's all go too the beach together.

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting tulsahurrcane:



Reference needed. Can you please direct me to the point in time that this blog reached consensus.


I've been coming here for a loooong time and I can say that this blog has NEVER reached a consensus, ever, not even close. But then I think, that would be rather boring if everyone had the same ideas? Even the NHC has discussion groups and just like the models there are always outliers that are discounted. Problem is that the outliers are the ones that are typically quoted excessively and get things outta control. So, if everyone would just turn a cheek to the outliers this would be a much more enjoyable place.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
MAJOR squall line bearing down on Long Island, should be hitting u all up there in about 30-45 minutes, expected severe storm warnings to go up very soon with potential winds over 60 mph. and some large hail. Stay indoors, get away from the beach!


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Quoting unruly:
Categorically UNTRUE....If we were all sitting around a table having coffee, there would be no arguing...Which brings me to a question. Why are there no Trolls at a coffee table, but they abound here?


you have obviously never been at my house when my mother in law is visiting...
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Quoting DestinJeff:


it was a poor choice of words. closest we can get is a level of sustained "groupthink".

blog consensus is the stuff of legend only.
Categorically UNTRUE....If we were all sitting around a table having coffee, there would be no arguing...Which brings me to a question. Why are there no Trolls at a coffee table, but they abound here?
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Wow, Adrian fought off the dry air after all to get to Cat 3. Could this storm really be under the influence of Adrian Marcato (The Devil) of Rosemary's Baby (The Movie)? It's acting like it's under a devilish spell right now. On the latest RGB image I think I see a face with horns! Another Grey Goose please! :)
this season we could see most of this type of storm dev when it occurs and not just epac but the atlantic as well
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Quoting pottery:

Hello Taz.



And i Quote


hello pot
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting DestinJeff:


well, untrained analysis of half-hour old satellite pictures is just as good as any of that.

or so I am led to believe. oh crap!...is it not?
i picked it out pretty good said cat 3 and just maybe tonight cat 4 remember if it can happen it will
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Well, looks like the low pressure area will miss Florida, as well as the high tropical moisture. I won't believe anything till I see it at this point.

What I first thought was a transition to deep tropical moisture and thunderstorms will yet again, not materialize. Instead, low pressure passing east of Florida will likely cutoff significant rainfall in Florida for at least the next several more days, if not beyond that.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
And i Quote



hello all

Hello Taz.
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Wow, Adrian fought off the dry air after all to get to Cat 3. Could this storm really be under the influence of Adrian Marcato (The Devil) of Rosemary's Baby (The Movie)? It's acting like it's under a devilish spell right now. On the latest RGB image I think I see a face with horns! Another Grey Goose please! :)
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Quoting presslord:
there's an app which combines You Tube, twitter and Facebook,,,

it's called YouTwitFace

It's comments like this that just make this blog Remarkable !
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Quoting Grothar:


It is bad. My geckos now wait outside my door and wait for me to hose them down. It really is getting serious. The Southwest is really bad, too.
Gro.....you have those dinosaur looking lizards where you are. Over here they've taken over.....eaten all the newts, geckos, etc. Now, it looks like Jurassic Park.
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T.C.F.W.
01E/MH/A/C4
MARK
15.25N/105.5W
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Quoting Grothar:


Well, I never understood what they saw when all the models had it going North, when I maintained it was going to move WNW, because of the ridge moving down. Because of its presentation this moring and the rapid formation (not intensification) of the eye, it figured it would be a CAT 3. I learned to never over-analyze anything. When one has too much information, one can easily become confused. That is the reason I have read only one book in my whole life.
hmm that doesn't sound like something a grandpa would say.

I'm more curious about what your "crystal ball" has to say though. has adrian reached it's peak? where is it headed?

btw, is this your crystal ball?

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And i Quote



hello all
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Sorry, Grothar. I would have given you credit earlier but, my weeds are packing it in. They are saying this drought is too much for them and they are outta here! I am just helping them get bus tickets to Death Valley where they are saying it is not so dry. ..... I am going to miss them. They were the only thing "green" left in my yard. Astro turf is starting to look better to me now.


It is bad. My geckos now wait outside my door and wait for me to hose them down. It really is getting serious. The Southwest is really bad, too.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
#476

O no u dint
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Twit™.

Pay up.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26675
Quoting Grothar:


Well, I never understood what they saw when all the models had it going North, when I maintained it was going to move WNW, because of the ridge moving down. Because of its presentation this moring and the rapid formation (not intensification) of the eye, it figured it would be a CAT 3. I learned to never over-analyze anything. When one has too much information, one can easily become confused. That is the reason I have read only one book in my whole life.


humping the ridge?
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So much water in the Gulf of Mexico but it appears not a drop of water to spare for the land lubbers. Seems like only relief will be from the tropics. Hope it is mild but droughts usually end in a bang. Still seems to be some spin around western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Not really much of a chance for the ull in Gulf to spin down.If it doesn't hope it gets out of the way, it looks like a drought machine on the water vapor.
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Quoting presslord:
there's an app which combines You Tube, twitter and Facebook,,,

it's called YouTwitFace


That has to be the best line of the day without a doubt.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
..yo, Adrian



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting TomTaylor:
oh boy...

what is your crystal ball currently saying for adrian's future? I'm gonna write this one down


Well, I never understood what they saw when all the models had it going North, when I maintained it was going to move WNW, because of the ridge moving down. Because of its presentation this moring and the rapid formation (not intensification) of the eye, it figured it would be a CAT 3. I learned to never over-analyze anything. When one has too much information, one can easily become confused. That is the reason I have read only one book in my whole life.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
The blog's default width was 501 when last I googled for some Images and ended up with several from the WeatherUnderground.
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there's an app which combines You Tube, twitter and Facebook,,,

it's called YouTwitFace
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Newest drought monitor release

Thanks for posting that.
I knew we were in either severe or extreme, but that map confirmed. I don't think I even remember what rain looks like and the scary part is-I think when it starts we'll get more than we need!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


please tell me you're not on Twitter.


No, since I am not a Twit, I never felt the need.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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