Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

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T.C.F.W.
01E/MH/A/C4
MARK
15.25N/105.5W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Wow! Adrian is a Category 4.

000
WTPZ61 KNHC 092235
TCUEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
330 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

...HURRICANE ADRIAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...

SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE HURRICANE
ADRIAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES NOW SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT OR 130 MPH...
210 KM/H. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

...SUMMARY OF 330 PM PDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.5N 105.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4898
Quoting Levi32:


Lol as opposed to all the other "objective" methods they have for classifying and forecasting systems? Not to say they don't do a good job overall, but especially in the classifying department it's extremely subjective based on their current methods. Tools can be used but I dislike when they are made the rule of the law, like Dvorak and model forecasts sometimes are.
yes, the intentions of the Dvorak system are to remove subjectivity...

I'll agree the NHC is very subjective at times, I complain about them too sometimes. But what you're suggesting (that they just determine the strength just by looking at it) is incredibly subjective to who is looking at the satellite loop. The Dvorak system is a much less subjective system.

And for all we know, the Dvorak estimates could be dead on. Adrian may very well have 130MPH winds. We won't ever truly know since they wont send in Recon, but all I'm trying to say is don't be so quick to doubt the satellite estimates just because it doesn't look good in your opinion.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Adrian at and going to a Whole nubba Lebel





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
Back later.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Gro.....you have those dinosaur looking lizards where you are. Over here they've taken over.....eaten all the newts, geckos, etc. Now, it looks like Jurassic Park.


We have been invaded by them. They come up and actually knock on the sliding glass doors. They are not afraid of anything.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting tropicfreak:


GRRRR!!! Actually I am dreaming of snow and 20 degree temps now, LOL
I am dreaming of a summer that just won't get here! The Snake River is going to flood bad if it keeps raining like this on the snowpack.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
But then it becomes subjective...if you don't believe me, just look around this blog. Sure most of us are pretty bad at analyzing satellite imagery compared to the average met at the NHC, but it still gives you an idea of the wide variety of opinion.

This is why they use the dvorak scale


Lol as opposed to all the other "objective" methods they have for classifying and forecasting systems? Not to say they don't do a good job overall, but especially in the classifying department it's extremely subjective based on their current methods. Tools can be used but I dislike when they are made the rule of the law, like Dvorak and model forecasts sometimes are.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
Poll:

Will Adrian attain Cat 5 status?

A. Yes

B. No
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


There is such a thing as a forecaster analyzing satellite imagery for himself instead of letting a computer program do it. Dvorak is an estimate, and it has weaknesses, especially in hurricanes that are dealing with dry air entrainment and have deceptively healthy-looking eyes. The Dvorak skyrocketed to Cat 4 on Adrian just before the eye collapsed earlier this morning. I admit it looks much better now, and is surviving with the dry air better than I anticipated for today. It shouldn't last long, but it will probably be a lesson to me for EPAC systems, which I do not often track.
But then it becomes subjective...if you don't believe me, just look around this blog. Sure most of us are pretty bad at analyzing satellite imagery compared to the average met at the NHC, but it still gives you an idea of the wide variety of opinion.

This is why they use the dvorak scale
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
So what about dry air?

000
WTPZ61 KNHC 092235
TCUEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
330 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

...HURRICANE ADRIAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...

SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE HURRICANE
ADRIAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES NOW SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT OR 130 MPH...
210 KM/H. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.



It's there. You may look at the TPW imagery yourself to see the entrainment. Adrian is just dealing with it better than I expected. Hard to miss the eye collapsing earlier this morning as well. It was painfully obvious what was going on, but he made a nice recovery.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
Quoting PcolaDan:


Ah, see it now. Last couple of frames do appear to show the start of something.


Something to "possibly" watch for later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Pocatello, Pocatello Regional Airport (KPIH)
Lat: 42.92028 Lon: -112.57111 Elev: 4449
Last Update on 09 Jun 15:53 MDT


Overcast

58°F(14°C) Humidity: 46 %
Wind Speed: WSW 17 G 28 MPH

Barometer: 30.11 in (1018.00 mb)
Dewpoint: 37°F (3°C)
Visibility: 10.00 Miles




GRRRR!!! Actually I am dreaming of snow and 20 degree temps now, LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Interesting that you would mention that. I actually have a lizard that lives next to my garden hose. I could have sworn I saw him holding a sign that says, "Give me water or I loose the bugs!". I'm just glad he doesn't have any hounds!


LOL I can just picture him.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting PensacolaNative:


Yes. Not good with the links yet. Here is another.Link


Ah, see it now. Last couple of frames do appear to show the start of something.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
So what about dry air?

000
WTPZ61 KNHC 092235
TCUEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
330 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

...HURRICANE ADRIAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...

SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE HURRICANE
ADRIAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES NOW SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT OR 130 MPH...
210 KM/H. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
isla san benedicto small one
isla socorro larger one


Thank you KOG! I've been trying to find this out for a while.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
isla san benedicto small one
isla socorro larger one


That's dos, what is tres?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTPZ61 KNHC 092235
TCUEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
330 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

...HURRICANE ADRIAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...

SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE HURRICANE
ADRIAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES NOW SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT OR 130 MPH...
210 KM/H. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE
.

...SUMMARY OF 330 PM PDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.5N 105.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
Quoting tropicfreak:
It was and still is @$#$#!##$ hot outside here in Richmond VA! The nearest weather station less than half a mile away from me peaked at 101 degrees. Luckily we have some storms that really flared off to our west because of the heat and humidity,moving in our direction, though we have a better chance of seeing storms tomorrow and Saturday. Temps are expected to lower a little bit, back to the mid 80s by next week, and 90s this weekend.


Pocatello, Pocatello Regional Airport (KPIH)
Lat: 42.92028 Lon: -112.57111 Elev: 4449
Last Update on 09 Jun 15:53 MDT


Overcast

58°F(14°C) Humidity: 46 %
Wind Speed: WSW 17 G 28 MPH

Barometer: 30.11 in (1018.00 mb)
Dewpoint: 37°F (3°C)
Visibility: 10.00 Miles


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
What else are they supposed to do in the absence of recon?


There is such a thing as a forecaster analyzing satellite imagery for himself instead of letting a computer program do it. Dvorak is an estimate, and it has weaknesses, especially in hurricanes that are dealing with dry air entrainment and have deceptively healthy-looking eyes. The Dvorak skyrocketed to Cat 4 on Adrian just before the eye collapsed earlier this morning. I admit it looks much better now, and is surviving with the dry air better than I anticipated for today. It shouldn't last long, but it will probably be a lesson to me for EPAC systems, which I do not often track.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
islands locations are
small one 19.18n/110.47w
large one 18.46n/110.57w
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
It was and still is @$#$#!##$ hot outside here in Richmond VA! The nearest weather station less than half a mile away from me peaked at 101 degrees. Luckily we have some storms that really flared off to our west because of the heat and humidity,moving in our direction, though we have a better chance of seeing storms tomorrow and Saturday. Temps are expected to lower a little bit, back to the mid 80s by next week, and 90s this weekend.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting PcolaDan:


That didn't work. Is it from this list?
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxma p_DOD_area.cgi?dtg=2011060912&area=ngp_troplant&se t=Tropical


Yes. Not good with the links yet. Here is another.Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For you space nuts, Space Shuttle filmed on May 23rd as Soyuz TMA20 undocked. This is a the first and last time ever of a video showing the Shuttle docked at the ISS.



Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Quoting Grothar:


They could be the Tres Marias islands.
isla san benedicto small one
isla socorro larger one
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
528thru530 Ya know what they say about three on a match...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
T.C.F.W.
01E/MH/A/C3
MARK
15.25N/105.5W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting PensacolaNative:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxma p_ loop.cgi?area=ngp_troplant∏=z85&dtg=" target="_blank">Link


That didn't work. Is it from this list?
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxma p_DOD_area.cgi?dtg=2011060912&area=ngp_troplant&se t=Tropical
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting ElConando:
Does anyone know the names of the small Islands off the western coast of Mexico? At about 18N and 112W?


They could be the Tres Marias islands.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting reedzone:
Warnings should go up for Suffolk County, NY (Long Island) at any time; however, the squall line appears to be weakening.

There is another small band over Northern NY and VT that is headed this way. Might be sometime around 10 tonight before it gets here. might strengthen over the mountains of NH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
520 ElConando "Does anyone know the names of the small Islands off the western coast of Mexico? At about 18N and 112W ?"

Islas Revillagigedo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ElConando:
Does anyone know the names of the small Islands off the western coast of Mexico? At about 18N and 112W?


Islas Revillagigedo on this map.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10876
Quoting ElConando:
Does anyone know the names of the small Islands off the western coast of Mexico? At about 18N and 112W?


The larger one is named Socorro, dont know the names of the other ones.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14014
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_ loop.cgi?area=ngp_troplant∏=z85&dtg=" target="_blank">Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaNative:
Anyone noticed the long range NOGAPS showing something breaking off the ITCZ heading into the Caribbean?
link?
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1430
Warnings should go up for Suffolk County, NY (Long Island) at any time; however, the squall line appears to be weakening.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone noticed the long range NOGAPS showing something breaking off the ITCZ heading into the Caribbean?
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Quoting caneswatch:


I remember him saying the Canucks would win....

Too scared I guess LOL
Although, one of our key men got a bad (season ending) concussion...We shall see.
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Quoting caneswatch:


I remember him saying the Canucks would win....

Too scared I guess LOL
not scared maybe nervous
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting unruly:
It was a fun, neat little storm.

Quite the little blow here in Southern New Hamsphire. My dog, a schipperke and king of the world, cowered under my desk at my feet the entire time it was lightning so hard.
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Does anyone know the names of the small Islands off the western coast of Mexico? At about 18N and 112W?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

ex94L circulation is just a little south of due west of Grand Cayman , we've been SW/WSW practically all day.
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Quoting IceCoast:
Got a few gusts 40-45 mph here in Northeast MA when the line moved through. A few house shakers and pretty vivid lightning. Few branches snapped off, and it also blew a small basketball hoop into the pool. A pretty cool storm to witness.
It was a fun, neat little storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


line passing over ne
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUN 2011 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 14:20:28 N Lon : 104:55:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.4mb/112.4kt



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
Quoting Bitmap7:
I call cat3 on Adrian by 8:00am tommorrow.

Thunder storms popping up in the center like crazy, and its dmin.


I was spot on. Too bad i took the dry air into consideration after :(.
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
Got a few gusts 40-45 mph here in Northeast MA when the line moved through. A few house shakers and pretty vivid lightning. Few branches snapped off, and it also blew a small basketball hoop into the pool. A pretty cool storm to witness.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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