Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

Share this Blog
9
+

The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

()
()
Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 664 - 614

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It has to be different in the Eastern Pacific too or Adrian would be a Category 3 hurricane instead of Category 4. Either that, or the NHC made a mistake.


Yes, 130 is a top Cat 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and a Cat 4 begins at 131. But you and I know the NHC does not make mistakes.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26124
Quoting TomTaylor:
It's because of the 115Kt winds. Dvorak estimate is done by Knots, not MPH, so look at the Knots.

115 kt = 132.3 MPH

Which is indeed a cat 4 hurricane. They only say 130 MPH winds because if you round to the nearest 5 its 130.



That explains it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Actually that isnt statistically a CAT 4 anyway, unless they changed the wind criteria

CAT 4 starts at 131 not 130
It's because of the 115Kt winds. Dvorak estimate is done first by Knots, not MPH, so look at the Knots.

115 kt = 132.3 MPH

Which is indeed a cat 4 hurricane. They only say 130 MPH winds because if you round to the nearest 5 MPH its 130 MPH.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting AussieStorm:

I beg to differ



Last time I checked, winds of 130 mph in the Atlantic is a Category 3.

NHC says it is a Category 4.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The Pacific's is different from the Atlantic's.

I beg to differ

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The Pacific's is different from the Atlantic's.


...it is?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A little crow pie today from Adrian to the blog?
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting Grothar:


That is on the other side of the Pacific.


It has to be different in the Eastern Pacific too or Adrian would be a Category 3 hurricane instead of Category 4. Either that, or the NHC made a mistake.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Quoting DestinJeff:


85 here in coastal waters (fl panhandle)... and june grass (algae) not as bad as last year so far! fingers crossed.


You haven't seen my pool. :|
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yes, and remember, TCHP is indicating heat with depth, the pacific is so frikking deep its hard to get high. The level of the TCHP product is msot important when focusing on slow moving systems. If the system is moving at a decent clip, any upwelling of cooler water below that warm surface layer will be left behind, therefore the hgurricane is always encountering heat.

Also it is true about dust, but that is usually true with weaker systems, when a tropical cyclone is weak, it does not have the well developed tropical cyclone system it needs to fight off dry air. However, no matter how much dust or dry air lies ahead of a hurricane, if its over warm tropical waters and a strong anticyclone remains overhead, that heat engine will just keep growing and growing, and dry air will only have temporary and short term effects.

As soon as that setup is disrupted though, the tropical cyclone loses organization, thus making way for dry air to poor in.
Yep, I was going to mention the SST depth, but I didn't want to make my post too long for fear of losing some people out of boredom lol. But yea TCHP is more important for large, long lasting, or extremely intense storms, or a combination of all three.


Anyway, you are very right, Jed. Once a hurricane gets good organization going, as long as the SSTs are warm enough and wind shear is minimal, dry air in the surrounding environment will have a minimal impact. Of course, in order to become a hurricane, dry air must be minimal, or else convection will be suppressed and inhibited. Therefore, dry air is a much greater problem when a storm is trying to form, or when it is struggling to survive.

Adrian is a great example of your point since it formed in a very moist environment and as a result was able to mature quickly. Once it got going many people noticed dry air beginning to surround it, but it had already became a hurricane by then
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The Pacific's is different from the Atlantic's.


That is on the other side of the Pacific.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26124
651. Patrap
11:42 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Soyuz Epd 28/ISS hatch opening LIVE momentarily NASA TV
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128261
650. Grothar
11:41 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Very compact storm; good outflow and good symmetry.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26124
649. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:40 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Actually that isnt statistically a CAT 4 anyway, unless they changed the wind criteria

CAT 4 starts at 131 not 130


The Pacific's is different from the Atlantic's.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
648. Hurricanes101
11:39 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
HURRICANE ADRIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
330 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

...HURRICANE ADRIAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...

SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE HURRICANE
ADRIAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES NOW SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT OR 130 MPH...
210 KM/H. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

...SUMMARY OF 330 PM PDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.5N 105.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS



Actually that isnt statistically a CAT 4 anyway, unless they changed the wind criteria

CAT 4 starts at 131 not 130
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
647. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:39 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
T.C.F.W.
01E/MH/A/C4
MARK
15.25N/105.5W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53815
646. FrankZapper
11:38 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting pottery:

Taken from the Russian craft.
Both were there for the first time ever, together.
Ah! Thanks Pot. I was getting worried. The post does say a Soyuz. Me stupid.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
645. Grothar
11:38 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Just a point of interest. Ferris Bueller movie turns 25 today! Relevant only because he is called upon this blog many times.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26124
644. emcf30
11:38 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
643. jdjnola
11:37 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Its been Cloudy all day... But not one drop of rain yet.... Ugh!



94L was a little rotten distrubance wasn't it? 'You all think I'm going to form? Well I'm not! You think you're going to get some rain? Well you're not! Na na na na boo boo!' Then watch it develop off the East coast. Ha! That would take the cake.
Member Since: August 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 238
641. CybrTeddy
11:35 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting FrankZapper:
It is obviously taken from a distance too far for a spacewalker. So who is doing the filming? An alien craft perhaps?


I'm not sure if your serious or not.

Its the Soyuz TMA-20 spacecraft that had undocked with 3 space-fliers onboard.

Was also done back in '95 during the STS-71 mission to Mir with Atlantis.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24017
639. Hurricanes101
11:35 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Wormsign



That is not a CAT 4 IMO
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
638. pottery
11:34 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting FrankZapper:
It is obviously taken from a distance too far for a spacewalker. So who is doing the filming? An alien craft perhaps?

Taken from the Russian craft.
Both were there for the first time ever, together.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
637. emcf30
11:34 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Grothar:
It's gettin' closer every daaaaay.



just wish it would shift to the West a tad
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
635. Grothar
11:33 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
It's gettin' closer every daaaaay.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26124
633. pottery
11:32 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting DestinJeff:


we have similar water temps here. i won't say it.

Maybe right up against the coast.
But the map I am looking at is showing 80-83 around Fla.
A bit more in the GOM but not 86 anywhere on the east side of Cen. America.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
632. CybrTeddy
11:31 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Soo... when will it rain real good in Florida again?

Thoughts?

Bueller?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24017
631. FrankZapper
11:31 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting emcf30:
For you space nuts, Space Shuttle filmed on May 23rd as Soyuz TMA20 undocked. This is a the first and last time ever of a video showing the Shuttle docked at the ISS.



It is obviously taken from a distance too far for a spacewalker. So who is doing the filming? An alien craft perhaps?
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
630. Jedkins01
11:26 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


Nah, in all fairness, what Levi was observing this morning was correct. It probably shouldn't have exploded into this, but as we know, these storms can be fickle. They have fooled many experts over the years, especially in the Pacific. Hurricane Andrew would be a good example of an Atlantic storm that was declared dead I believe 3 times. It really is hard to call them, when we don't have close recon sometimes.


That's what you say, I agree with Levi on many things, but this is not one of them. Its just not consistent to me, with hurricane science, based on what Ive learned in school. But you know, its ok to disagree, I ain't gettin' angry! lol
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7440
629. AussieStorm
11:26 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Dodong’ brings floods; death toll: 9



Floods up to 2 meters deep swamped a town in Batangas and classes were suspended in Metro Manila and several provinces in Luzon on Thursday, as a low-pressure area intensified into Tropical Depression “Dodong.”

A 10-year-old boy in Batangas City remained missing Thursday after he was swept away by floodwaters while trying to retrieve his slippers.

Relief officials also said that a family of six in Laguna province had a narrow escape when a landslide crushed their house minutes after they had abandoned it.

In Romblon, a 56-year-old woman drowned in San Agustin town, bringing to eight the number of people killed around the country in the past four days as a result of floods brought by incessant rains.

The death toll included seven people who drowned on Monday and Tuesday in central Mindanao in floods triggered by heavy rains.

The Department of Education (DepEd) suspended classes in public and private schools in Metro Manila at all levels on Thursday, but an education official announced later in the day that classes would resume at all levels on Friday with the expected departure of Dodong.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) raised Storm Signal No. 1 over Metro Manila, Bataan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Pangasinan and Cavite.

At 5 p.m., Pagasa lifted the storm signal over Cavite and Metro Manila but said Signal No. 1 was still up over Bataan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales and Pangasinan.

By that time, Dodong had been sighted 150 kilometers west of Dagupan City in Pangasinan and moving north northwest with an increased speed of 19 km per hour. It had maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center.

The storm was expected to be 460 km west of Basco, Batanes, by Friday afternoon.

Pagasa warning

Pagasa said Dodong was expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains over the western sections of Central Luzon. It could bring 15 to 20 millimeters of rainfall per hour, it said.

Pagasa warned residents in low-lying areas under Signal No. 1 against possible flash floods and landslides.

Chief forecaster Robert Sawi said Dodong was expected to leave the Philippine area of responsibility late Friday or early Saturday and exit toward Hong Kong.

“There is a possibility that it will strengthen, but it is a slim possibility,” he told reporters.

La Niña over

Acting Pagasa Administrator Nathaniel Servando also announced that the La Niña weather phenomenon, which in the Philippines means more rains, was over.

La Niña refers to the abnormal cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.

Servando said that near normal rainfall could now be expected in most parts of the country in June but that “two to three tropical cyclones” were also expected to affect the country this month.

Lost slippers

In Batangas, police said the 10-year-old boy, a Grade 5 pupil at Sampaga Elementary School, was walking home via the spillway after school when he lost his slippers. He was carried away by the floodwater while trying to recover the slippers.

A total of 318 families were evacuated from 12 flooded villages in Batangas City and Bauan town.

In some parts of Bauan, the floodwater went as high as 2 meters, provincial information officer Ginette Segismundo said by phone.

In San Pablo City in Laguna, a landslide buried a house that was undergoing repairs.

Arvin Carandang of the Philippine National Red Cross said a couple and their four children were lucky as they were able to leave the house minutes before it was smashed by the landslide.

Power blackouts

Carandang said widespread power outages hit San Pablo as a result of the heavy rains that had been falling since Wednesday. Power interruptions also occurred in Calamba City.

Classes in some private and public schools in San Pablo were canceled.

In Sariaya, Quezon, a barge carrying soya beans smashed into a wharf, injuring its four crew members.

In Tagaytay City, the city government suspended classes at all levels in all public schools.

Central Luzon

In Central Luzon, classes were suspended in several towns and cities in Bulacan, Bataan, Zambales and Pampanga.

Strong winds knocked down an electric post and a tree in Balanga City, while in Aurora, rains triggered a landslide in the capital Baler.

In both incidents, government work crews were able to immediately clear the roads.

In Bulacan, school officials canceled classes in Malolos and in the towns of Doña Remedios Trinidad, Bulakan, San Ildefonso, Calumpit and Obando.

Halsema Highway, the road used by vegetable dealers in Benguet and Mt. Province to deliver produce to Metro Manila every day, remains passable.

Metro classes

In Metro Manila, classes were suspended at all levels in public and private schools for the safety of the students, said Assistant Education Secretary Tonisito Umali.

Later in the day, the DepEd’s National Capital Region director, Elena Ruiz, announced that with the expected departure of Dodong, classes would resume today (Friday) at all levels in public and private schools in Metro Manila.

According to a list released by the DepEd, the order suspending classes also covered parts of Central Luzon, specifically Limay and Balanga in Bataan; Angeles City in Pampanga; and Obando and Doña Remedios Trinidad in Bulacan.

In the Calabarzon region, classes were suspended in Batangas City, Calaca, Taal, Bauan and Lemery in Batangas; Kawit and Rosario, six schools in Bacoor and Sangley Elementary School, all in Cavite; Antipolo City; San Pablo City; Alaminos and Caparitan Elementary School in Bay, Laguna; and San Mateo, Rizal.

Tagaytay City, Noveleta and GMA in Cavite also called off classes.

In the Mimaropa region, classes at all levels were suspended in Lubang, Occidental Mindoro.

In other areas, the decision to suspend classes depended on the regional directors and local government officials, Umali said.

At the college and university levels, the Commission on Higher Education left the decision to suspend classes to the school officials.

Hating the rain

The rains brought flooding and slowed traffic in some parts of northern and eastern Metro Manila.

Some streets in Malabon City were impassable to light vehicles after floodwaters rose to almost-knee-deep levels.

“This is one of the reasons why I hate the rain,” commuter Camille Raguni, who was on her way to visit her grandmother, told the Inquirer as her sister struggled to carry three grocery bags.

Officials said the water levels in Marikina River were still within the normal range despite the rains.

The Marikina Flood Monitoring Office said the water levels, as of noon, had reached 13.3 meters. This was below the critical level of 15 meters.

The Metro Manila Development Authority’s assistant manager for operations, Emerson Carlos, said no major problems had been reported in connection with the bad weather.

But Carlos said flood control teams needed to do unclogging operations along España Street in Sampaloc early Thursday morning.

Flights canceled

Fourteen domestic flights going to and from Manila were canceled, according to the Manila International Airport Authority.

They involved flights of Seair, Air Philippines and Cebu Pacific.

Nineteen international and domestic flights were slightly delayed. The involved carriers—Air Philippines, Cebu Pacific, Philippine Airlines and Zest Air—resumed the flights later as the skies cleared.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
628. Tazmanian
11:25 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Ameister12:

No.




how many crows would you like me too save up for you i put them on ICE this yet me no when you are ready for them then i BBQ them
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115081
627. Jedkins01
11:24 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting TomTaylor:
I agree with that.

I also think that the warm SSTs (around 29-31C) have contributed greatly to your idea. There isn't much TCHP, but TCHP isn't much of an issue when you have a fairly small system which has only been around for about two days.

One last reason I believe the dry air that we have been seeing around Adrian has been less of an influence then most were expecting is because they are expecting dry air to have the same effect on Epac storms as it does in the Atlantic. Now don't get me wrong, dry air is dry air, but dry air over the Atlantic, especially over the East Atlantic, is notorious for having a high dust content.

Now over in the Epac, there are some near by deserts over Mexico and the United States, and additionally, some Saharan dust does make it to the East Pacific. But compared to the Atlantic, the dust concentration is much lower in the Epac.

I think people are often mislead by the CIMSS Saharan Air Layer graphics which depict the Epac as having a ridiculously high concentration of dust



However, this product really only shows dry air. The product even says at the bottom "Low to Mid Level Dry Air." Dry air can be an indicator of dust, but dry air itself is not dust.


Yes, and remember, TCHP is indicating heat with depth, the pacific is so frikking deep its hard to get high. The level of the TCHP product is most important when focusing on slow moving systems. If the system is moving at a decent clip, any upwelling of cooler water below that warm surface layer will be left behind, therefore the hurricane is always encountering heat.

Also it is true about dust, but that is usually true with weaker systems, when a tropical cyclone is weak, it does not have the well developed tropical cyclone system it needs to fight off dry air. However, no matter how much dust or dry air lies ahead of a hurricane, if its over warm tropical waters and a strong anticyclone remains overhead, that heat engine will just keep growing and growing, and dry air will only have temporary and short term effects.

As soon as that setup is disrupted though even slightly, the tropical cyclone loses organization, thus making way for that very dry air to poor in.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7440
626. Grothar
11:22 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting DestinJeff:


you shouldn't be so humble.

You hit a home-run and should take due credit. With interest.


Nah, in all fairness, what Levi was observing this morning was correct. It probably shouldn't have exploded into this, but as we know, these storms can be fickle. They have fooled many experts over the years, especially in the Pacific. Hurricane Andrew would be a good example of an Atlantic storm that was declared dead I believe 3 times. It really is hard to call them, when we don't have close recon sometimes.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26124
625. pottery
11:22 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting TomTaylor:
I agree with that.

I also think that the warm SSTs (around 29-31C) have contributed greatly to your idea. There isn't much TCHP, but TCHP isn't much of an issue when you have a fairly small system which has only been around for about two days.

One last reason I believe the dry air that we have been seeing around Adrian has been less of an influence then most were expecting is because they are expecting dry air to have the same effect on Epac storms as it does in the Atlantic. Now don't get me wrong, dry air is dry air, but dry air over the Atlantic, especially over the East Atlantic, is notorious for having a high dust content.

Now over in the Epac, there are some near by deserts over Mexico and the United States, and additionally, some Saharan dust does make it to the East Pacific. But compared to the Atlantic, the dust concentration is much lower in the Epac.

I think people are often mislead by the CIMSS Saharan Air Layer graphics which depict the Epac as having a ridiculously high concentration of dust



However, this product really only shows dry air. The product even says at the bottom "Low to Mid Level Dry Air." Dry air can be an indicator of dust, but dry air itself is not dust.

Good Post!
You are correct. There is a misconception about that SAL product.
What shows op over the EPac in generally dry air. Bound to have some aerosols in it, but not a lot.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
624. Patrap
11:20 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Wormsign

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128261
622. pottery
11:18 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Adrian is over 86 degree water as well.
That helps...
It's GOT to get water from somewhere, and in Adrians case, it came from the ocean.
It really did not get an inflow of moist air .
Great Storm!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
621. Gearsts
11:17 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
It doesnt look like a cat 4 to me, but it is what it is.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1741
619. Jedkins01
11:17 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting alfabob:

Well there is a lot of dry air in the regions surrounding it, but my point was that the majority of it was not being directly pushed into Adrian. If that were to of happened, then I doubt there would be a cat 4 right now. Same thing when 93L was around, it was surrounded by a lot of dry air; but when it had the anti-cyclone in the upper levels the dry air wasn't a problem. It was only when it wondered off without it that it deteriorated.


You are right.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7440
618. PrivateIdaho
11:17 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting pottery:

Ya Dont know what yer missin'....
Funny and suitable for primetime!
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
616. TomTaylor
11:16 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Jedkins01:


Maybe because dry air by itself isn't as big of a deal as you might first think, the NHC agrees with me. If you read my earlier post it might make since. Adrian doesn't have dry air entrainment. It may have sucked in dry air periodically, but tropical cyclones are heat engines that manufacture far more moist air then any dry air then can suck in. It takes the shutting off of that hurricane engine, or disruption of the circulation, to allow dry air to really effect it on a large scale. I knew Adrian was going to explode, despite some here and their fascination with dry air entrainment.
I agree with that.

I also think that the warm SSTs (around 29-31C) have contributed greatly to your idea. There isn't much TCHP, but TCHP isn't much of an issue when you have a fairly small system which has only been around for about two days.

One last reason I believe the dry air that we have been seeing around Adrian has been less of an influence then most were expecting is because they are expecting dry air to have the same effect on Epac storms as it does in the Atlantic. Now don't get me wrong, dry air is dry air, but dry air over the Atlantic, especially over the East Atlantic, is notorious for having a high dust content.

Over in the Epac, there are some near by deserts over Mexico and the United States, and additionally, some Saharan dust does make it to the East Pacific. But compared to the Atlantic, the dust concentration is much lower in the Epac.

I think people are often mislead by the CIMSS Saharan Air Layer graphics which depict the Epac as having a ridiculously high concentration of dust



However, this product really only shows dry air. The goes satellites do not have a sensor that specifically measures dust. The product even says at the bottom "Low to Mid Level Dry Air." Dry air can be an indicator of dust, but dry air itself is not dust.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
614. emcf30
11:15 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


Just a good guess. I figured if I said every storm was going to be a Cat 4, I was bound to be right sometime.


Your on a roll tonight
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933

Viewing: 664 - 614

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
73 °F
Mostly Cloudy