Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

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Dawn of the Dead:

AL, 94, 2011061000, , BEST, 0, 201N, 813W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

ATCF doesn't often re-invest, but it's happened before...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Wow, you don't see this too often.


SEE #692 on page 14. PANIC, absolute panic this thing would cause IF it was located in the western Carib. and headed to the GOM. Absolute freakout. Glad it's not.
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if we see code orange again, We might see
REACTIVATE_94L
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The Barometer Bob Show this week June 9, 2011
guests are Clif Carothers of Air-Ambulance and Ian Giammanco from Texas Tech. Hurricane Research Program
The discussion is about Droughts, Severe Weather/Tornadoes, and Hurricane Season Predictors.
Does a dry Spring/May in the Southeastern United States point to active severe weather outbreaks and active hurricane seasons and possibly more U.S. Landfalls? What are some of the other possible predictors that we may be able to measure how strong our defenses should be.
Just remember, this is not official research. But information that will be presented on this show is interesting and has been a subject for many years on the World Wide Web.
You must also be prepared for any disaster. Have a plan, a kit and know what you need to do when the time comes.

The Barometer Bob Show aires every Thursday night at 8PM/ET.

wrbn on livestream.com. Broadcast Live Free
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There has been a certain spinny-ness to the GOM as off late. WV shows it nicely. Thoughts on how that could effect Caribbean quasi-blob, should it be so kind as to make it's way north?

Member Since: May 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 246
Quoting emcf30:


Whatdya know, that little sucker is back on the map.

Meanwhile, some beautiful visible satellite images on Adrian.

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
NNE from Grand Cayman is an excellent route, may just come up the west coast of FL after all. One can only hope cause it would suck to be on the dry side of nothing special.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA... THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...AND MOST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE AREA OF LOWEST
PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR...BUT MAY BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

*Hand Breaks Through Ground Of Grave*
Round 2? Mwuhahahahahahahahaa... *94L gives evil look* I'll be back!

Lol... Tropics very quiet in the atlantic, just got a bit bored... 94L back for more it appears...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yep, nobody can forecast it right 100% of the time.

Nope, its a cat 4, believe it or not.

As you even said yourself, the NHC relies solely on the Dvorak technique when they don't have recon.

Adrian got a 6.0 on the Dvorak scale which is 115 knots, or 132 MPH, or in other words, a Cat 4 hurricane. The NHC likes to round to the nearest 5 or 0, however, and as a result, the MPH and Knot wind report are showing conflicting categories.


I can't say I have ever seen such a conflict, and we have had many storms at that intensity.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
94L again?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA... THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...AND MOST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE AREA OF LOWEST
PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR...BUT MAY BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

94L just doesn't want to give up.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4898
Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, that is something isn't it. I posted the image in post 635. Thought it looked interesting. did you see it?


Hopefully Florida gets some of that rainfall.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Hurrykane:


Same here Levi...can't be right all the time. It's forecasting...hard to get it all correct all the time, unless you have the luxury of sitting down all day, and scrutinizing every little detail every hours. That's why models can be off. Ya send up a balloon, get the info back (what, about an hour), then ya go 11 hours before ya get new info. I honestly didn't think it would get that strong either. Must have really been able to mix out the dry air.
Yep, nobody can forecast it right 100% of the time.

Quoting Levi32:


There are no two different conversions here. It's the same. The official intensity is 115kts, or 130mph. It has always been rounded that way. That is a high-end Cat 3 based on the official advisory. I have no idea if they meant to make it 120kts or not.
Nope, its a cat 4, believe it or not.

As you even said yourself, the NHC relies solely on the Dvorak technique when they don't have recon.

Adrian got a 6.0 on the Dvorak scale which is 115 knots, or 132 MPH, or in other words, a Cat 4 hurricane. The NHC likes to round to the nearest 5 or 0, however, and as a result, the MPH and Knot wind report are showing conflicting categories.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting alfabob:
Quoting TomTaylor:
looks like a doughnut
notice: I didn't say it was annular




Its ok to use the a-word in this case.


ok good, cuz I wanted to say it haha
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
94L is certainly a persistent little bugger..

they often develop too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Wow, interesting.


Yeah, that is something isn't it. I posted the image in post 635. Thought it looked interesting. did you see it?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25366
#682 - humorous AND on-topic. You set a high bar, sir.
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Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
94L again?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA... THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...AND MOST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE AREA OF LOWEST
PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR...BUT MAY BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



It hangs around long enough it will eventually find another opportunity...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
94L again?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA... THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...AND MOST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE AREA OF LOWEST
PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR...BUT MAY BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Wow, interesting.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Wow, you don't see this too often.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25366
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Levi, both you and me said Adrian wouldn't make Cat 2. I'm in Hurricane Hollow if you want to come.


I'm on my way.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Then why dont they just say 130mph and up is CAT 4?

Makes no sense that in 1 conversion its a CAT 3 and the other its a CAT 4

If 130mph in knots = a CAT 4, then why is 130mph not a CAT 4?


There are no two different conversions here. It's the same. The official intensity is 115kts, or 130mph. It has always been rounded that way. That is a high-end Cat 3 based on the official advisory. I have no idea if they meant to make it 120kts or not.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Levi32:


That would be me. That forecast turned out to be incorrect. I will often go out on those bold limbs with the EPAC systems that don't threaten anybody, as it's a great forecasting exercise where I will push my thoughts to the end until they are utterly disproved, something I can't always afford to do with Atlantic systems. Adrian has taught me some good things about EPAC systems, as again I don't track them very often.

Hey Levi, both you and me said Adrian wouldn't make Cat 2. I'm in Hurricane Hollow if you want to come.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Then why dont they just say 130mph and up is CAT 4?

Makes no sense that in 1 conversion its a CAT 3 and the other its a CAT 4

If 130mph in knots = a CAT 4, then why is 130mph not a CAT 4?
Why don't they just agree on one unit of measurement instead?

Would make everything easier if we weren't constantly converting stuff
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
94L again?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA... THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...AND MOST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE AREA OF LOWEST
PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR...BUT MAY BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
:)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
lol pat
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting TomTaylor:
It's because of the 115Kt winds. Dvorak estimate is done first by Knots, not MPH, so look at the Knots.

115 kt = 132.3 MPH

Which is indeed a cat 4 hurricane. They only say 130 MPH winds because if you round to the nearest 5 MPH its 130 MPH.



Then why dont they just say 130mph and up is CAT 4?

Makes no sense that in 1 conversion its a CAT 3 and the other its a CAT 4

If 130mph in knots = a CAT 4, then why is 130mph not a CAT 4?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Of course they make mistakes. Either that, or the NHC is run by robots. :o


Danger, Will Robinson!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25366
ANNULAR, I said it, Adrian looks annular
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Love watching these things in the open ocean away from land......One of the most spectacular sights in Nature.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
A little crow pie today from Adrian to the blog?
not for me unless i say its going to be a 5
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Eyes trying to completely clear out. I do think it is approaching Category 4 status now (My opinion, not the official NHC advisory).

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
looks like a doughnut



notice: I didn't say it was annular
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting AussieStorm:

I beg to differ



I remember when you first sent me that back in 2009. Not sure of the exact date, but I believe it was August 19, at 5:34 PM. My memory isn't as good as it was.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25366
Quoting 12george1:
Who was it on here that said Adrian wouldn't even become a Category 2 hurricane?


That would be me. That forecast turned out to be incorrect. I will often go out on those bold limbs with the EPAC systems that don't threaten anybody, as it's a great forecasting exercise where I will push my thoughts to the end until they are utterly disproved, something I can't always afford to do with Atlantic systems. Adrian has taught me some good things about EPAC systems, as again I don't track them very often.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
672. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
I always remember cyclone categories went as...

65 knots is Category 1
85 knots is Category 2
100 knots is Category 3
115 knots is Category 4
140 knots is Category 5
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Quoting DestinJeff:


NHC never makes mistakes, at least outside of comments here.

Quoting Grothar:


Yes, 130 is a top Cat 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and a Cat 4 begins at 131. But you and I know the NHC does not make mistakes.


Of course they make mistakes. Either that, or the NHC is run by robots. :o
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
Is Atlanta's heat island keeping the popcorn storms away?



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I don't have handy link to a recent hi-res shot of Adrian but it looks to me looking at the regular NOAA vis loop that he is starting to exhibit that "stadium" effect in the eyewall.....Very impressive looking storm at the moment.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It has to be different in the Eastern Pacific too or Adrian would be a Category 3 hurricane instead of Category 4. Either that, or the NHC made a mistake.

The NHC classifies all Cyclones in all basins with the SSHWS.
Category Four Hurricane (Sustained winds 131-155 mph, 114-135 kt, or 210-249 km/hr).
Link
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I don't have handy link to a recent hi-res shot of Adrian but it looks to me looking at the regular NOAA vis loop that he is starting to exhibit that "stadium" effect in the eyewall.....Very impressive looking storm at the moment.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Actually that isnt statistically a CAT 4 anyway, unless they changed the wind criteria

CAT 4 starts at 131 not 130


Based on 115 kts.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It has to be different in the Eastern Pacific too or Adrian would be a Category 3 hurricane instead of Category 4. Either that, or the NHC made a mistake.


Yes, 130 is a top Cat 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and a Cat 4 begins at 131. But you and I know the NHC does not make mistakes.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25366

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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