Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Is this Possible? Do you see it taking that route? TIA.



One can only hope, seemed the models we're trending a little closer to the FL east coast this afternoon.
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we cant have a party with out this


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Quoting taistelutipu:
The NHC has updated the windspeed in mph:

000
WTPZ61 KNHC 092358
TCUEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
330 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

CORRECTED INTENSITY WIND SPEED IN MILES PER HOUR

...HURRICANE ADRIAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...

SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE HURRICANE
ADRIAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES NOW SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT OR 135 MPH...
210 KM/H. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

...SUMMARY OF 330 PM PDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.5N 105.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS

(my emphasis)

I bet they have been reading the discussion on here and decided to go for 135 mph to put the Cat 4 beyond doubt. LOL


That's the first thing I thought when I read their correction.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23724
Quoting Tazmanian:
No rain for FL you have too play me $500 if you want the rain



LOL



I'll "Play" you $500.
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Quoting aquak9:
gonna be like DanceDanceRevolution here pretty soon


Love that game! LOL!
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94L actually has some things(thats why Navy reactivated it)
Convection
Vortmax(elongated SW to NE)
Low level convegence where low is
Upper divergence near low
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You're kidding right? 94L is back? Wow...
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gonna be like DanceDanceRevolution here pretty soon
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25506
754. j2008
Quoting caneswatch:
So, 94L is reactivated, and Adrian is a Cat. 4. I'm not surprised about Adrian, but the reactivation of 94L is very off-guard.

Sure was a surprise.
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Quoting aquak9:
I'm pulling for the CLP5, eyewall


I'll take that.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10466
Quoting aquak9:
I'm pulling for the CLP5, eyewall


I'm pulling for CLP5 and BAMS. Since BAMS is good with the shallow systems, hopefully it's correct.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting Tazmanian:
No rain for FL you have too play me $500 if you want the rain



LOL

Will you take in store credit. The check will be in the mail
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Quoting emcf30:


Some of the models were persistent with this. Showed development just N of the Bahamas. We will see if it pans out tho the shear will have to die down. I did get a chuckle when I saw it re-posted, considering our conversations several days ago..

and not the better models eithier that were persistent with it..which will speak in volumes if they outperform the GFS and ECWMF this hurricane season..shall I dare say, we would be looking at the CMC for guidance this season..heaven forbid!!
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So, 94L is reactivated, and Adrian is a Cat. 4. I'm not surprised about Adrian, but the reactivation of 94L is very off-guard.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
The NHC has updated the windspeed in mph:

000
WTPZ61 KNHC 092358
TCUEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
330 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

CORRECTED INTENSITY WIND SPEED IN MILES PER HOUR

...HURRICANE ADRIAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...

SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE HURRICANE
ADRIAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES NOW SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT OR 135 MPH...
210 KM/H. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

...SUMMARY OF 330 PM PDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.5N 105.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS

(my emphasis)

I bet they have been reading the discussion on here and decided to go for 135 mph to put the Cat 4 beyond doubt. LOL
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Someone get the Seminole's on the horn, need 24-7 rain dances stat...

That would be aquak's department.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Category 5 Hurricane Celia
June 25th, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
No rain for FL you have too play me $500 if you want the rain



LOL
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744. j2008
Quoting Bitmap7:
What 94l is back?
NOOOOOO!!!!
That system is rubbish i want nothing to do with it.

This is gonna be fun. LOL Its back from the grave.
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Quoting beell:
Wichita, KS Radar



Looks like one of those old movies where they pour gunpowder in a line towards the TNT then light it. POOFpppssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
I'm pulling for the CLP5, eyewall
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25506
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The Pacific's is different from the Atlantic's.


A different part of the Pacific. In Australia and Japan, they use a different scale respectively. In the Atlantic and the NE Pacific (140 degrees West to all points east), they use the Saffir-Simpson scale.
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LIVE NOW. Barometer Bob Show.
wrbn on livestream.com. Broadcast Live Free
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T.C.F.W.
01E/MH/A/C4
MARK
15.25N/105.5W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
As soon as CIMSS notifies me, I will post the post-invest 94L for you.
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Someone get the Seminole's on the horn, need 24-7 rain dances stat...
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Quoting ncstorm:


when this storm gets in the gulf stream, we may be looking at that scenario Nogaps was calling for..if 93L had more time, it would have strength into a TD, perhaps a TS..the east coast waters will aid in development for 94L..


Some of the models were persistent with this. Showed development just N of the Bahamas. We will see if it pans out tho the shear will have to die down. I did get a chuckle when I saw it re-posted, considering our conversations several days ago..
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Quoting tropicfreak:


Could get interesting for NC and VA.


Exactly..I just looked up my local NWS and basically they had written it off..will be interesting to see what it can do in the coming hours..its moving very slow as well which might just miss that cold front that is in the midwest that was supposed to move it out NE to sea..
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Come on BAMS


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10466
oh great, enough to make a pup CRY, a big TEASE, rain being swept off to the NE.

They shoulda left it DEAD.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25506
Navy site has put in back.


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What 94l is back?
NOOOOOO!!!!
That system is rubbish i want nothing to do with it.
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XX/XX/XL
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
Quoting ncstorm:


when this storm gets in the gulf stream, we may be looking at that scenario Nogaps was calling for..if 93L had more time, it would have strength into a TD,perhaps a TS..the east coast waters will aid in development..



Here is what I was trying to show. There is a thingy in the Gulf, that may move slightly back to the west and allow for some small development and bring the showers back towards Florida. Notice how the moisture is moving South off of Cuba. Perhaps a little low is drawing the moisture in. Look at the loop and you will see what I mean.

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23724
Quoting ncstorm:


when this storm gets in the gulf stream, we may be looking at that scenario Nogaps was calling for..if 93L had more time, it would have strength into a TD,perhaps a TS..the east coast waters will aid in development for 94L..


Could get interesting for NC and VA.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
94L reactivated!!!

AL, 94, 2011061000, , BEST, 0, 201N, 813W, 25, 1008, DB
lol so funny
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1019
OH GOD!!! ITS BACK!!! 94L BACK FOR THE KILL!!!, GOD, Were dead! 80/ not really... BUT ITS BACK FROM THE DEAD LIKE I SAID!!! HA
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I see my extreme wish casting the past couple days paid off :-)
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nevere mine lOL
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722. beell
Wichita, KS Radar

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It is sad to say, but I am jumping on the "we need rain bandwagon"..lol..we are now down over 18" for the year...I will gladly share with everyone..lol
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Quoting emcf30:


when this storm gets in the gulf stream, we may be looking at that scenario Nogaps was calling for..if 93L had more time, it would have strength into a TD, perhaps a TS..the east coast waters will aid in development for 94L..
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Dawn of the Dead: look what just came back to life:

AL, 94, 2011061000, , BEST, 0, 201N, 813W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


94L back on the map...
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
94L reactivated!!!

AL, 94, 2011061000, , BEST, 0, 201N, 813W, 25, 1008, DB
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13299
how do we no it the same 94L
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94L: Return from the Grave

A sequel to everyone's favorite;
Life of an Invest

lol
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Dawn of the Dead:

AL, 94, 2011061000, , BEST, 0, 201N, 813W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

ATCF doesn't often re-invest, but it's happened before...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13275

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.