Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

Share this Blog
9
+

The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

()
()
Smokey Moon 2 (gilg72)
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.
Smokey Moon 2

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 814 - 764

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Quoting Neapolitan:
On a sad note, the death toll from the Joplin tornado has jumped to 151 after more have succumbed to their injuries. Many of the newly departed fell victim to zygomycosis, a fungal infection caused by soil and/or vegetation embedded into the skin by high winds.

Link

Link


Dread.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23867
re-post of # 746

Category 5 Hurricane Celia
June 25th, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
812. afj3
Evening All! I missed it! Away from links. Can anyone real quickly tell me if 94L will FINALLY bring rain to Florida while I go through inbox to look for links to models? Sorry to those of you who get annoyed with these types of questions but I am dying to know what's gonna happen and you all can tell me faster than it takes me to dig up my model pages....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
reminds me of Celia, it looks like a strong hurricane maybe a 5, I wouldn't put it out of the question
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Adrian is lookin' annular. He might be able to get to Cat. 5 if he gets lucky enough.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
T.C.F.W.
01E/MH/A/C5
MARK
15.25N/105.5W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Quoting Titoxd:
ATCF: down to 946 mb, winds up to 120 knots:

EP, 01, 2011061000, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1054W, 120, 946, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 80, 70, 80, 1008, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,

Steadily strengthening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On a sad note, the death toll from the Joplin tornado has jumped to 151 after more have succumbed to their injuries. Many of the newly departed fell victim to zygomycosis, a fungal infection caused by soil and/or vegetation embedded into the skin by high winds.

Link

Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ATCF: down to 946 mb, winds up to 120 knots:

EP, 01, 2011061000, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1054W, 120, 946, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 80, 70, 80, 1008, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
XX/INV/94L
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Adrian's eyewall is officially the Hairiest place on 3rd Rock out from Sol tonight.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
X
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Invest 94L is unlikely to develop, but perhaps it will be able to rotate some rainfall over to Florida during the next couple days. It's awfully close by already.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bitmap7:

Perfect.


Approaching moderate/strong Category 4 strength. I don't know if it will reach Category 5 strength or not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Perfect.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ATCF now says:

EP, 01, 2011061000, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1054W, 120, 946, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 25, 1008, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,

(That's 140 mph, in case you're wondering.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
753 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 748 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTHEAST WICHITA...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN WICHITA...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EL DORADO...ANDOVER...TOWANDA...AUGUSTA AND BENTON.

3 chasers are close and headed closer
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Tornados Plus Drought Equal Active Hurricane Season
Interesting read.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hate when I go to add a new blog entry and it says I appear not to have a WunderBlog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
794. j2008
Quoting Patrap:




One word: WOW!!!! that looks so very impressive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It was a beautiful sunset in Gainesville, FL tonight. The sun was an almost cremesicle orange due to all of the smoke that is in the air. Where is the rainy season? I believe it has only rained once in June at my apartment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
I don't know how 94L could come back and plow through the same sheer wall and subtropical jet position that prevented TD status 48 hours ago but we shall see.....Now for some popcorn and a beer to watch the Game.........See Yall Tommorow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Link? i lost the link for the navy site.


Here you go sammy.

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25022
94L Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis 00Z 10 June
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Hopefully, it doesn't stay like this, that's just wrong. Need some progress West.




Did you change your handle? It's not nice to confuse older people.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25022
783. srada
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Severe drought here.


Yes we are, hopefully everyone on the SE coast can get some of it..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
now you see it now you dont


LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25022
Quoting taistelutipu:
Wunderground has put 94L back on as well, only Adrian is still at 115 mph there.

I was laughing out loud at the image in #705 of the hand out of the grave... and shortly after it's back. Wow. Cat 4 and a reborn invest.. what an evening. Now I can go to bed.


Hvordan har du det. Kan du tror det?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25022
Quoting NoNamePub:


THAT IS VERY COOL!


Indeed,,right down the chimney to the surface.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
Rammb page bullish on 94L as well.

.."lets warm up nuther Blade in the d server guys"..


AL942011 - INVEST
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
Quoting srada:
Well 94L is back..woohoo!!..NC needs rain!! I just want to do a "Grothar" and pat myself on the back because I never gave up on 94L..


Severe drought here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Checkout the ShortWave IR eye



THAT IS VERY COOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting srada:
Well 94L is back..woohoo!!..NC needs rain!! I just want to do a "Grothar" and pat myself on the back because I never gave up on 94L..


You can strain your arms that way. I know. I remember yours posts.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25022
Quoting PcolaDan:
A Cantore tweet:

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
If Matt says its real I believe it RT @MattNoyesNECN: No-Nature's illusion. Tornado off exit 186 in Bangor Maine!

Not real (whoever Matt is). I mean, it's a real image--but it's not a tornado. Looks to be just an odd roll cloud...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Checkout the ShortWave IR eye

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
Hi everyone! Darn computer models for 94L! wish the 12z cmc would panout. We need the rain bad!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A Cantore tweet:

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
If Matt says its real I believe it RT @MattNoyesNECN: No-Nature's illusion. Tornado off exit 186 in Bangor Maine!
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
769. srada
Well 94L is back..woohoo!!..NC needs rain!! I just want to do a "Grothar" and pat myself on the back because I never gave up on 94L..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

.."check the vector down there Victor"..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
Wunderground has put 94L back on as well, only Adrian is still at 115 mph there.

I was laughing out loud at the image in #705 of the hand out of the grave... and shortly after it's back. Wow. Cat 4 and a reborn invest.. what an evening. Now I can go to bed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hopefully, it doesn't stay like this, that's just wrong. Need some progress West.


Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5019
now you see it now you dont
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114648
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Is this Possible? Do you see it taking that route? TIA.



One can only hope, seemed the models we're trending a little closer to the FL east coast this afternoon.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5019

Viewing: 814 - 764

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
72 °F
Scattered Clouds