Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Smoke, heat, and air pollution across much of the U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on June 08, 2011

Smoke from Arizona's second largest fire on record, the massive Wallow fire near the New Mexico border, has now blown downwind over 1,500 miles to the Northeast U.S. The fire, which is 0% contained, is expected to rage full-force for at least another day due to unfavorable weather. Hot, dry, and windy weather is predicted again today over Eastern Arizona, where NOAA has issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions. A large trough of low pressure is anchored over the Southwest, and a disturbance rippling along this trough will bring strong southwesterly surface winds of 20 - 25 mph, with gusts near 35 mph today to eastern Arizona. Extremely low humidities of 5 - 15% and hot summer temperatures are also expected, creating a dangerous fire weather situation. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 20 mph for 9 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 7%. The fire grew from 300 square miles on Sunday to 365 square miles on Monday and 487 square miles Tuesday--about 40% of the size of Rhode Island. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 166-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record. Winds are expected to diminish for Thursday and Friday, which should allow firefighters to make headway controlling the blazes. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.5 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.

Figure 1. Active wildfires and smoke as visualized at 9am EDT June 8, 2011 using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke from the Wallow fire and Horseshoe Two fire in Arizona extended more than 1,500 miles, and was pushing into the Northeast U.S.

Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on June 7, 2011. Heavy smoke from the fire covers large portions of New Mexico, Texas, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Nebraska in this image. Image credit: NASA.

Unusual June heat wave
An intense blast of heat set new daily high temperature marks in 14 states from Texas to Minnesota Tuesday, including a remarkable 103°F in Minneapolis. It was the hottest day in the city in nearly 23 years, since 105°F was recorded on July 31, 1988, and the second earliest date the city had ever hit 100°. Minneapolis' earliest 100° day came on May 31, 1934, when the mercury also hit 103°. Yesterday was the 5th consecutive day that the Austin, Texas Bergstrom Airport tied or set a new daily temperature record. On Monday, June 6, the airport hit 103°F, the earliest in the year that location had ever hit 103°. Record keeping began there in 1942, and the last time Austin was so warm so early in the year was on June 14, 1998, when the mercury hit 109°.

Figure 3. Air pollution forecast for Wednesday, June 8, 2011, calls for a large-spread region of pollution that is Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG), over the eastern third of the nation. Image credit: EPA Airnow.

Significant air pollution episode today
The heat will continue today for much of the eastern half of the country, and heat advisories are posted in fourteen states. The high heat, combined with abundant sunshine and very stagnant air, is expected to bring the most severe large-scale air pollution event of the year to the nation. Adding to the hazard is the presence of fine smoke particles from the fires in Arizona, which have blown downwind to cover most of the eastern 2/3 of the country. Air quality on Wednesday is expected to be Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Code Orange, or over 100 on the Air Quality Index), in more than 80 cities, including Baton Rouge, La., Indianapolis, Detroit, Nashville, Tenn., Columbus, Ohio, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Newark, N.J., Richmond, Va., and Atlanta. If you live in these areas, cut back on strenuous outdoor exercise today if you have asthma or other respiratory problems.

Caribbean disturbance 94L no threat to develop
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Northwestern to North Central Caribbean Sea near Jamaica is very disorganized this morning, but is still capable of bringing heavy rains as it pushes slowly northwards at less than 5 mph. I heard from wunderground user Anthony Zed in the Kingston, Jamaica suburb of Norbrook, and he reported that his rain gauge received 11.27" of rain from 94L from June 1 - 7, which is more rain than had fallen all year. The big rain day was yesterday, with 3.47". Satellite loops show a few disorganized clumps of thunderstorms in the region, and NHC has downgraded 94L's chances of development by Friday to 0%. Wind shear is very high, 30 - 50 knots, making development very unlikely.

First tropical cyclone of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Tropical Storm Adrian, the first named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, formed last night off the coast of Mexico. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a hurricane on Thursday. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Amazing solar flare erupts
In recent months, the sun has awakened from its longest and quietest period since the satellite era bgan in the late 1970s. An increasing number of sunspots, solar flares, and Coronal Mass Ejections have occurred, as solar activity builds towards a peak expected in 2013. Yesterday, the sun unleased the most spectacular solar flare ever captured on video, highlighted in the Youtube link below.

Video 1. A spectacular solar flare erupted at 06:41 UTC on June 6, 2011, when magnetic fields above sunspot complex 1226-1227 became unstable. The blast produced a massive Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that was not aimed directly at Earth, but fringes of the blast may cause aurora activity on June 8 and 9. This is probably the most dramatic and beautiful solar flare captured by the cameras on NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO.) Additional movies and information are available at spaceweather.com, and additional information on the latest solar activity is available from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters

Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)

the dots are ash

New Mexico Smoke Emergency (darnold)

A sickening orange glow looks like sunset but it is heavy smoke from forest fires in Arizona. Air quality alert in effect, warnings to stay indoors. Zuni mountains, just a few miles off in this view, cannot even be seen. Grants, NM, 2.5 hours pre-sunset

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1201. Levi32 2:02 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
It's a little funny. Adrian looks almost annular here because all of the outer spiral bands (except to the south) keep evaporating in the dry air. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

1202. LilyZ 2:03 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Great blog! Member Since: April 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 5

1203. Neapolitan 2:04 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Levi32: If they upgrade it to Cat 2 right now it would be debatable without recon based on the satellite presentation. If Adrian clearly strengthens today then I will have been wrong about him staying below Cat 2, but we will see whether he does or not. I do think the NHC forecast of Adrian becoming a major is even more unlikely. ATCF has had it at 90 knots/970 mb for a couple of hours now. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11308

1204. Levi32 2:04 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Grothar: I see no reason that Adrian will not become a high Cat 2 or low end Cat 3. It will probably only last for a small time. But there potential is still there. The Epac storms don't always reactive the way Atlantic storms do. It appears at the moment that the eyewall is trying to re-establish itself. As you can see on the Link animation, the convection is trying to rebuild towards the NorthEast. It may a little trouble doing it but it is is trying hard. Link It's trying, but definitely not rapidly intensifying. We will see how high it goes, but right now the core looks rather shabby. It's a great forecasting exercise on a system that's not threatening land. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

1205. aquak9 2:04 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

1206. Levi32 2:05 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: ATCF has had it at 90 knots/970 mb for a couple of hours now. So they went with the exact Dvorak estimate as usual. I do wish they would fly planes into these more often. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

1207. Levi32 2:06 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Green IR colors straight to the eyewall on the north side: Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

1208. Vincent4989 2:09 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Levi32: It's a little funny. Adrian looks almost annular here because all of the outer spiral bands (except to the south) keep evaporating in the dry air. That sat image looks like a Cat 5/4 hurricane. Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728

1209. Levi32 2:10 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Vincent4989: That sat image looks like a Cat 5/4 hurricane. That's because it's hard to interpret cloud heights on visible. If you look closely, the eastern side looks like trash. The eye is kind of nice-looking, but the core is much worse-off than it looks on some images. This storm may very well be a low-end Cat 2, but I doubt it will get any stronger than that. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

1210. BahaHurican 2:13 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Aha!!! Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961

1211. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 2:16 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
T.C.F.W. 01E/H/A/C2 MARK 14.75N/104.16W Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

1212. ElConando 2:16 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse: You could tell the Miami NWS was rather disappointed this morning. Smoke over the weekend will likely reverse course and head towards the coast. Situation is growing very desperate with the wild fire. ALL MODELS COMING IN LINE WITH THE LOW MOVING NE TO THE E OF S FLA WITH SOME DIFFERENTIATION ON HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO S FLA. REGARDLESS...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE "DRY" SIDE SO POPS OVER S FLA WILL REMAIN LESS THAN WHAT HOPED FOR CONSIDERING THE WILDFIRE. THE PRAIRIE WILDFIRE WILL EXPERIENCE EASTERLY WINDS TODAY AND NE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY SHIFT TO WESTERLY SATURDAY DEPENDING UPON THE NEARNESS OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. THE SMOKE PLUME SO READILY DETECTED BY RADAR THIS MORNING WILL AFFECT RURAL MIAMI DADE AND TRAVELERS ON THE TAMIAMI TRAIL TODAY ...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT THE PLUME MAY MAY HEAD TOWARD THE E COAST SATURDAY AND THE MIAMI/FT. LAUDERDALE METRO AREAS...AGAIN DEPENDING UPON THE NEARNESS OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE E COAST WITH THE LOWER 90S INTERIOR TO POSSIBLY THE MID 90S W COAST TODAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE PROSPECT OF WESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY THIS MAY REVERSE WITH WARMER E COAST. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. I live in NE Dade and I think i've seen smoke from a wild fire in this area maybe once a little over a decade ago. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

1213. ElConando 2:17 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican: Aha!!! Keep flaunting your rain! Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

1214. MoltenIce 2:18 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Looks very annular-ry. Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 552

1215. Vincent4989 2:18 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Levi32: That's because it's hard to interpret cloud heights on visible. If you look closely, the eastern side looks like trash. The eye is kind of nice-looking, but the core is much worse-off than it looks on some images. This storm may very well be a low-end Cat 2, but I doubt it will get any stronger than that. Yeah, but dry air has little or no effect on Adrian. Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728

1216. CybrTeddy 2:18 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Adrian's northern eyewall is collapsing due to dry air intrusion from what I can see. Rapid waning of convection in the last few frames there. Adrian though sports a very impressive looking eye for a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20656

1217. Neapolitan 2:18 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
What a difference a year makes: Click for larger image: Click for larger image: Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11308

1218. Levi32 2:19 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Vincent4989: Yeah, but dry air has little or no effect on Adrian. TPW imagery and IR satellite imagery completely disagree: Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

1219. BahaHurican 2:20 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Morning all. It's overcast cool and windy here this a.m.... I do hope we get at least a few showers in the NW Bahamas. I'll bet points south are reporting rain today. Pity the core of the system didn't track further north as opposed to NE, but even if it only brings a little rain today I'll be satisfied... I also hope it lasts until tomorrow. :) Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961

1220. Levi32 2:21 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
ICESS MJO projections show upward motion returning to the tropical Atlantic after June 20th. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

1221. Walshy 2:22 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Vincent4989: Yeah, but dry air has little or no effect on Adrian. Troll Alert Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 622

1222. Vincent4989 2:23 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Levi32: TPW imagery and IR satellite imagery completely disagree: Yet there are 60% chances of regaining convection. Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728

1223. Levi32 2:24 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
New image shows the NW eyewall completely gone. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

1224. Vincent4989 2:26 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Walshy: Troll Alert I'm not a troll, because disagreements without disputes are allowed. I'm just having a disagreement here. Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728

1225. HadesGodWyvern 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DODONG 5:00 PM PhST June 9 2011 ===================================== Tropical Depresssion DODONG has accelerated and continues to move in a North Northwest direction. At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Dodong located at 16.0°N 118.7°E or 150 km west of Dagupan City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 9 knots. Signal Warnings ================= Signal Warning #1 ------------ Luzon Region ------------ 1.Bataan 2.Pampanga 3.Tarlac 4.Zambales 5.Pangasinan Additional Information ===================== Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere are now lowered. Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. TD DODONG is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and will bring rains over the western sections of Central and Southern Luzon. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today. Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36940

1226. HadesGodWyvern 2:28 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Japan Meteorological Agency Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04 21:00 PM JST June 9 2011 ============================== SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 15.9N 118.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots. Dvorak Intensity: T2.0 Forecast and Intensity ======================= 24 HRS: 19.5N 117.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36940

1227. ElConando 2:29 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
It rained here about 45 mins ago, yet it was such a light rain the ground barely got wet. Better luck next time I guess... Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

1228. twhcracker 2:30 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
i am always interested when people who know about it post about the bermuda high so if anyone knows anything about it please post when there is any news on it setting up. I know if it is too far west it causes a high to sit over the fla panhandle all summer and its excruciating heat and drought. that happened in 2005 and again last year and i just wish we had some rain, no bad storms! Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

1229. Neapolitan 2:30 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Not sure whether anyone's noted it here, but NHC has a set of floaters up on the Wallow Fire. (Here's a link to the visible loop.) Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11308

1230. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 2:32 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Levi32: New image shows the NW eyewall completely gone. yeah it has achieved its peak and will slowly drop off now Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

1231. Chicklit 2:32 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Grothar: Wouldn't sefla* give you a hint. Like in South East Florida. LOL How is my Chicklit today. Now you know how I feel when they all pick on me.* i thought she moved. somebody moved anyway. haha if you really want to know, i'm getting nervous. in 12 days leave for Seoul, then go to Stuttgart. will take a month. i rarely travel so am starting to wind up about it. will be in a real tizzy by the time i get out of here. i have a nice couple staying at my house with the dog and cats and plants and fish so won't worry too much about them anyway. regarding getting picked on, some like it better than being ignored lol. (i prefer being ignored, by the way!) Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10381

1232. Gearsts 2:34 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Vincent4989: Yet there are 60% chances of regaining convection. With so much dry air? Dude the system is sick, not fealing well. Eating dry air is not good for Adrian. Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2155

1233. Neapolitan 2:35 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Adrian now a major: 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 091433 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011 ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...OR AT LEAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY BEFORE THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO BE AFFECTED BY STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO. BY THEN...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO HAS EXPANDED AND CONSEQUENTLY...ADRIAN HAS ACQUIRED A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING AND BUILD FARTHER WESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THEN...ADRIAN SHOULD BE WEAKER AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE AND IN FACT...NONE OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD AS INDICATED YESTERDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 14.2N 104.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 14.5N 105.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 15.8N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11308

1234. Gearsts 2:37 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: Adrian now a major: 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 091433 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011 ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...OR AT LEAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY BEFORE THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO BE AFFECTED BY STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO. BY THEN...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO HAS EXPANDED AND CONSEQUENTLY...ADRIAN HAS ACQUIRED A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING AND BUILD FARTHER WESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THEN...ADRIAN SHOULD BE WEAKER AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE AND IN FACT...NONE OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD AS INDICATED YESTERDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 14.2N 104.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 14.5N 105.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 15.8N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA WOW cant belive it, i guess they were reading this blog and saw all the talk about the dry air. Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2155

1235. PcolaDan 2:44 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
Quoting Chicklit: i thought she moved. somebody moved anyway. haha if you really want to know, i'm getting nervous. in 12 days leave for Seoul, then go to Stuttgart. will take a month. i rarely travel so am starting to wind up about it. will be in a real tizzy by the time i get out of here. i have a nice couple staying at my house with the dog and cats and plants and fish so won't worry too much about them anyway. Seoul and then Stuttgart. Now THAT'S a trip. Sounds associated with the military. And sounds like FUN. Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

1236. SLU 2:44 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 091432 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011 ...ADRIAN BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS WELL OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 104.1W ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR TODAY OR FRIDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ADRIAN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 3055

1237. Levi32 2:45 PM GMT on June 09, 2011
New blog. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

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