Arizona wildfires spread smoke 1,000 miles; 94L little threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on June 07, 2011

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Smoke from Arizona's third largest fire on record, the massive Wallow fire, has now blown downwind over 1,000 miles to Iowa. The fire, which is 0% contained, is expected to rage full-force for at least three more days due to unfavorable weather. Hot, dry, and windy weather is predicted again today over Eastern Arizona, where NOAA has issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions. A large trough of low pressure is anchored over the Southwest, and several disturbances rippling along this trough will bring strong southwesterly surface winds of 20 - 30 mph, with gusts near 35 mph, through Thursday. Extremely low humidities of 5 - 15% and hot summer temperatures are also expected, creating a dangerous fire weather situation. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for 8 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 12%. During the day yesterday, the fire grew from 300 square miles to 365 square miles, 30% of the size of Rhode Island. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 163-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.5 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Active wildfires and smoke as visualized at 9am EDT June 7, 2011 using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke from the Wallow fire and Horseshoe Two fire in Arizona extended more than 1,000 miles, covering most of the Midwest.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on June 6, 2011. The fire beneath the smoke is outlined in red. A large pyrocumulus cloud spawned by the fire is visible along the Arizona-New Mexico border. Pyrocumulus clouds are produced by the intense heating associated with fires or volcanic eruptions. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards website.

Caribbean disturbance 94L little threat to develop
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean near Jamaica is looking much less organized this morning, but is still capable of bringing heavy rains as it pushes slowly northwards at less than 5 mph. Satellite estimates of rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8pm EDT Monday night run as high as 5 inches for northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras, with 2 - 4 inches falling over portions of Jamaica and southeast Cuba. Satellite loops show a decrease in the heavy thunderstorm activity and organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are very poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 100 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman Island. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean is quite moist, and water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm. Wind shear has edged into the high range, 20 - 25 knots, which has probably contributed to 94L's deterioration.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. The storm is moving slowly to the north, into a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots that lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The SHIPS model predicts shear will rise above 30 knots by late tonight, which will make development into a tropical depression difficult. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. The 00Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week, but this is looking increasingly unlikely. At 8am EDT today, NHC gave 94L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Thursday. These rains will probably spread northwards into the Bahama Islands, and possibly South Florida, by Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs (colosprgs)
Past several days Pikes Peak and foothills covered in smoke. Photo taken at 3:30pm.
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs
Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire

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947. weathermanwannabe
2:04 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Good Morning....Looks like that mid-Atlantic ULL sweeping out the Caribbean is also gonna steal some of the rain chances for Florida...Guess it's back to pop-up showers for the time being.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9045
945. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:41 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
943. Gearsts
1:39 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Storm Adrian has spectacular outflow, along with very intense thunderstorms flaring up here and there across its CDO. This is a well-defined tropical storm, and will likely by a hurricane later on this afternoon/evening.

Needs to work on his right side but is a nice looking system.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1739
942. PcolaDan
1:39 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
And we've been reduced to watching what hens do....we need a system bad in the Atlantic, lol.


Quoting kwgirl:
Was that chicken wearing a hat? LOL at least they are in cages, where all good chickens belong.


May have to save the link to the cam for future reference. ;>)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
941. hydrus
1:38 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Quoting DestinJeff:


I think with a little effort "humor bans" can be avoided ... you just have to be quick on your feet.
Good morning..Speaking of bans..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
940. caneswatch
1:38 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI







Orca, enjoy that blowout the other night? :)
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
938. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:34 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
And we've been reduced to watching what hens do....we need a system bad in the Atlantic, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
937. kwgirl
1:32 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan:

Link
Was that chicken wearing a hat? LOL at least they are in cages, where all good chickens belong.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
935. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:31 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Tropical Storm Adrian has spectacular outflow, along with very intense thunderstorms flaring up here and there across its CDO. This is a well-defined tropical storm, and will likely by a hurricane later on this afternoon/evening.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
934. hydrus
1:29 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


Awesome idea. Wish St. Lucie County would do that. We still have houses in Port St. Lucie damaged from the storms, not to mention all the empty foreclosure ones. Makes sense..buy them, fix them up (creating construction jobs) and sell them. Win win situation. Sigh, on the other hand, was sooo looking forward to a rainy weekend. Bye bye 94L.
The county has done a good job of getting things back to normal, even though it actually is impossible to do so. It will take over a 100 years for the trees to make a full comeback, if ever. .. Western Cuba has vast forests of dead trees from recent storms and from storms hundreds of years ago...I have seen pictures and they are quite eerie looking.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
933. kwgirl
1:28 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Quoting KanKunKid:


....and the blog stalls and comes to rest against the curb...
waiting for something to put hope on, an Invest that won't let us down. A fine young and strong system that passes through the Hebert box and gives promise of a dream...a wet dream. A couple of inches anyway in South Florida..
Till then, we are floundering, grasping at leaky Nuclear plants, solar flares and brush fires. It's the 7th of June! Let the Hurricane season begin!
Awwww! Poo.
It's enough to drive a man to drink...!

Too bad it's too early!
It is 5:00 PM somewhere. I just had to say it.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
931. PcolaDan
1:25 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Quoting FLdewey:
LOL... yes the cone from Key West to Bangor Maine is a fond memory.

If you can work a foot joke in quietly I think they work. There's really no need to tiptoe around the issue.

I think we need a chicken cam... give the chicken a map of the CONUS. First place he... um... blesses is the center of the cone.

Link
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
929. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:16 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
First visible of the day on Adrian.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
928. Orcasystems
1:15 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
927. CitikatzSouthFL
1:13 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Actually, I am in Port Charlotte, FL working on houses that were abandoned after Charley. The county bought most of them and the company I work for makes them new again. Its a lot of work..


Awesome idea. Wish St. Lucie County would do that. We still have houses in Port St. Lucie damaged from the storms, not to mention all the empty foreclosure ones. Makes sense..buy them, fix them up (creating construction jobs) and sell them. Win win situation. Sigh, on the other hand, was sooo looking forward to a rainy weekend. Bye bye 94L.
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 454
924. Cotillion
1:09 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Quoting largeeyes:
Wonder what the most number of invests used before the first TD/TS was....


Depends when the idea of using the numbers began. I guess pick a late starting year that was active and you're probably not far off.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
922. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:08 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
look at 65 west


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
919. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:05 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Quoting largeeyes:
Wonder what the most number of invests used before the first TD/TS was....


I'd like to know that as well...I'd be rather hard to find out though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
917. largeeyes
1:03 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Wonder what the most number of invests used before the first TD/TS was....
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
916. hydrus
1:02 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning everyone. Last night here in Key West the wind picked up quite a bit at sunset, then suddenly died down. I guess it was that high lifting off allowing the low to move into the area. This morning is cloudy, but the clouds do not look heavy enough for rain. But where there are clouds there is hope. At least with the cloud cover, we will have a somewhat cooler day than yesterday. Everyone wish us some rain please.
We will get some rain. We may get some heavier amounts later in the month if the models pan out.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
915. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:01 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
914. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:01 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
First visible of the day coming soon for Adrian...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
913. Vincent4989
1:00 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I really wish you guys would stop making fun of Reedzone all the time...It's getting annoying and its disrespectful to him.
Especially YOU, pressureman.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
912. kwgirl
12:59 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Good morning everyone. Last night here in Key West the wind picked up quite a bit at sunset, then suddenly died down. I guess it was that high lifting off allowing the low to move into the area. This morning is cloudy, but the clouds do not look heavy enough for rain. But where there are clouds there is hope. At least with the cloud cover, we will have a somewhat cooler day than yesterday. Everyone wish us some rain please.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
910. Jax82
12:57 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
So much for the early start to Florida's "Rainy Season" LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
909. Vincent4989
12:57 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
More eyes are looking at Adrian.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
908. Cotillion
12:56 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
If Adrian does meet and then exceed his current intensity projections, it'll be the East Pacific's earliest major hurricane for quite some time (probably since Alma of 2002 which reached it in May). Celia was early last year, but not this early (that said, it did become a Cat 5).

Although, you could root for Adrian to do a 'Celia' as it heads out to the deep blue sea. There's never been a recorded case (as of yet) of both the East Pacific and Atlantic having a Category 5 in a single year (of course, East Pacific records are nowhere near the same historical depth as its Atlantic counterparts).
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
907. hydrus
12:56 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we are gathered here today to keep in our memory the invest 94l what can i say your life was a surprize to us we had high hopes for you seven days you teased and excited many we were with you from the beginning till the end so long 94l till we meet again RIP.

94L GONE BUT NOT FORGOTTON
BORNED MAY 31 2011
DIED JUNE 8 2011
....RIP....



LOL
A Christian burial ? The soul of 94L now ascends to the green pastures of invest heaven...sniffle
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
906. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:55 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
I really wish you guys would stop making fun of Reedzone all the time...It's getting annoying and its disrespectful to him.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
905. BobinTampa
12:54 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
"94L GONE BUT NOT FORGOTTON
BORNED MAY 31 2011
DIED JUNE 8 2011
....RIP...."



somewhere, in a Target breakroom, Reedzone is weeping.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
904. CyclonicVoyage
12:51 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Quoting FLdewey:
Meh... max has to say sensational things to keep the news paycheck coming.

I've lived in Florida all of my life, and the rainy season doesn't watch the calendar. Heck some years it never really shows up.

But to be fair I live north of the lake... I'm sure it's different in S FL.


Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
903. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:49 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
we are gathered here today to keep in our memory the invest 94l what can i say your life was a surprize to us we had high hopes for you seven days you teased and excited many we were with you from the beginning till the end so long 94l till we meet again RIP.

94L GONE BUT NOT FORGOTTON
BORNED MAY 31 2011
DIED JUNE 8 2011
....RIP....



LOL
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53548
902. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:46 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
65 mph, 995 mb

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
901. hydrus
12:43 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Quoting emcf30:

I bet you do have your work cut out for you there. Well then Welcome to the Sunshine State..
Quoting emcf30:

I bet you do have your work cut out for you there. Well then Welcome to the Sunshine State..
I was born and raised in South Florida and still call it home. My parents moved to Tennessee after the 2004 hurricane season. I was up there taking care of them. Now my sister in not well, so I had to come back home to help her with the company...work, work and more work..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
900. Neapolitan
12:40 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
Adrian is well on his way to becoming a hurricane; he should be one later today.

EP, 01, 2011060812, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1009W, 55, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1008, 200, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
898. blsealevel
12:40 PM GMT on June 08, 2011
SDO's images show a very large eruption of cool gas. It is somewhat unique as at many places in the eruption there seems to be even cooler material -- at temperatures less than 80,000 degrees Kelvin.
(143540.3 F)

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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