Arizona wildfires spread smoke 1,000 miles; 94L little threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on June 07, 2011

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Smoke from Arizona's third largest fire on record, the massive Wallow fire, has now blown downwind over 1,000 miles to Iowa. The fire, which is 0% contained, is expected to rage full-force for at least three more days due to unfavorable weather. Hot, dry, and windy weather is predicted again today over Eastern Arizona, where NOAA has issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions. A large trough of low pressure is anchored over the Southwest, and several disturbances rippling along this trough will bring strong southwesterly surface winds of 20 - 30 mph, with gusts near 35 mph, through Thursday. Extremely low humidities of 5 - 15% and hot summer temperatures are also expected, creating a dangerous fire weather situation. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for 8 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 12%. During the day yesterday, the fire grew from 300 square miles to 365 square miles, 30% of the size of Rhode Island. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 163-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.5 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Active wildfires and smoke as visualized at 9am EDT June 7, 2011 using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke from the Wallow fire and Horseshoe Two fire in Arizona extended more than 1,000 miles, covering most of the Midwest.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on June 6, 2011. The fire beneath the smoke is outlined in red. A large pyrocumulus cloud spawned by the fire is visible along the Arizona-New Mexico border. Pyrocumulus clouds are produced by the intense heating associated with fires or volcanic eruptions. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards website.

Caribbean disturbance 94L little threat to develop
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean near Jamaica is looking much less organized this morning, but is still capable of bringing heavy rains as it pushes slowly northwards at less than 5 mph. Satellite estimates of rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8pm EDT Monday night run as high as 5 inches for northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras, with 2 - 4 inches falling over portions of Jamaica and southeast Cuba. Satellite loops show a decrease in the heavy thunderstorm activity and organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are very poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 100 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman Island. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean is quite moist, and water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm. Wind shear has edged into the high range, 20 - 25 knots, which has probably contributed to 94L's deterioration.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. The storm is moving slowly to the north, into a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots that lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The SHIPS model predicts shear will rise above 30 knots by late tonight, which will make development into a tropical depression difficult. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. The 00Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week, but this is looking increasingly unlikely. At 8am EDT today, NHC gave 94L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Thursday. These rains will probably spread northwards into the Bahama Islands, and possibly South Florida, by Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs (colosprgs)
Past several days Pikes Peak and foothills covered in smoke. Photo taken at 3:30pm.
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs
Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire

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Not Fade away


I'm a-gonna tell you how it's gonna be
you're gonna give your love to me
I wanna love you night and day
you know my love a-not fade away
a-well, you know my love a-not fade away

My love a-bigger than a cadillac
I try to show it and you drive a-me back
your love for me a-got to be real
for you to know just how I feel
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Dont forget to bookmark these links folks take the time to get for some.

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Adrian on NRL
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Quoting j2008:
Would anybody have a link to something that says its TS Adrian, everything I've found says its still TD 1E.


EP, 01, 2011060800, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1003W, 35, 1003, TS
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592. j2008
Quoting Neapolitan:


Link

Thanks much.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting Chicklit:
It's really windy over here in ECFL 2nite.
Windy, drought, not a good combination.
Same here in Deerfield Beach. The local weather says E@13 but here near the beach it's blowing easily 15-20 and gusty. This weather is a gift as far as comfort but it's killing my grass it's so dry.
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Quoting j2008:
Would anybody have a link to something that says its TS Adrian, everything I've found says its still TD 1E.


Link
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589. j2008
Would anybody have a link to something that says its TS Adrian, everything I've found says its still TD 1E.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting JLPR2:
The spin that was just east of PR earlier today now has more 850mb vort than falling apart 94L.
This is funny. The worse 94L looks the better the vorticity.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8339
Quoting AussieStorm:

I hope they know how to cook it properly. 2mins on each side is all it needs on a high heat, anymore and it becomes like rubber.


That would explain the long high bouncing. :|
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting AussieStorm:

A few years ago before I hurt my back. I used to play baseball. Playing summer comp, I could see a storm coming in, we play with aluminum bats here in amateur league, I was next up to bat, I could see the lightening with thunder not far behind, I refused to go up to the plate to bat. My coach asked me why. I told him I didn't want to bat with so much lightening around. within seconds a bolt hit a tree about 100yards away. Straight away the game was called off. Hell, I wasn't going to be a bloody lightening rod. Been struck once already and barely survived, don't want to be struck ever again.


Smart choice, wait you were hit by lightning before? Really? How horrible!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7401
01E/TS/A/CX
MARK
11.55N/100.23W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
584. JLPR2
The spin that was just east of PR earlier today now has more 850mb vort than falling apart 94L.
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All NOAA Tropical Floaters
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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
look like we are going to have tropical storm Adrian soon by 11pm tonight.

It's only 8:40 here....
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Quoting AussieStorm:

What do you think of Roo meat?
No way. He is trying to convince me to try it but I will stick to chicken.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8339
579. txjac
Quoting AussieStorm:

What do you think of Roo meat?



I've heard that they are mean but they are too da%& cute to eat!
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Quoting Neapolitan:

It's now Adrian; see comment #560.


I saw it like right after I posted. I hate being ninja'd. :(
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Quoting pottery:

.... and they all have Black Eyes from banging their heads on the keyboard....

Yeah
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yo,,"Adrian"



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Quoting j2008:

No NHC still hs it TD 1E.

ATCF says Adrian, so it's Adrian.

EP, 01, 2011060800, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1003W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60, 1008, 200, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, M,
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The owner and chef is a native Australian. He's a real nice guy.

What do you think of Roo meat?
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572. j2008
Quoting Neapolitan:

It's now Adrian; see comment #560.

No NHC still hs it TD 1E.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting AussieStorm:
Weather Underground Blob Watchers Anonymous Group meeting.

.... and they all have Black Eyes from banging their heads on the keyboard....
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:



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Quoting AussieStorm:

I hope they know how to cook it properly. 2mins on each side is all it needs on a high heat, anymore and it becomes like rubber.
The owner and chef is a native Australian. He's a real nice guy.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8339
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hey Aussie, we have an Australian restaurant here so if you are ever in the neighborhood you can drop by for a kangaroo steak :)

I hope they know how to cook it properly. 2mins on each side is all it needs on a high heat, anymore and it becomes like rubber.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Good evening, guys. Just got on here today. I see 94L is down to 10%, as it should be.

I still have my attention on Tropical Depression One-E.

It's now Adrian; see comment #560.
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Good evening, guys. Just got on here today. I see 94L is down to 10%, as it should be.

I still have my attention on Tropical Depression One-E.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah and go for a walk-about back-o-bourke and visit the never never,
Hey Aussie, we have an Australian restaurant here so if you are ever in the neighborhood you can drop by for a kangaroo steak :)and a nice cold Foster's.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8339
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah and go for a walk-about back-o-bourke and visit the never never,


Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
Thredbo Top Station Observations
Time: Wed 10:00 EST
Wind Direction: W
Wind Speed:37km/h(22mph)
Wind Gusts:52km/h(32mph)
Temp:-7.0C(19.4F)
Dew Point:-8.1C(17.4F)
Feels Like:-16.5C(2.3F)
Relative Humidity:92%
Pressure:1012hPa
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Rain and Hail 2 days in a Row.

I feel privileged.
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merciless dry air digging out the moisture.

Link

How many ULLs did we watch erode away systems last year?
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Yo: Adrian--

EP, 01, 2011060800, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1003W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60, 1008, 200, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, M,
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Is this th longest standing invest?
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Quoting serialteg:


you're far from the fire sweetie

thanks, serial.
am surprised to see there's still something left of 94L 2nite.

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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
maybe a new low soon!!


yeah... i barely missed the maybe
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Thats why I asked. Wondered if they'd imported a bunch from Up Yonder and carried them out beyond the Black Stump and that might explain some things.

Yeah and go for a walk-about back-o-bourke and visit the never never,
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Quoting Chicklit:
It's really windy over here in ECFL 2nite.
Windy, drought, not a good combination.


you're far from the fire sweetie
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hey, if i wanted to watch blobs all day I'd watch my belly
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Quoting pottery:

Wild Imaginations.
That's all it is, man.
Maintain the Status Quo.
"Something" will save us.
You'll see!
In the Meantime,
ONWARD>>>>>>>

to oblivion
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
It's really windy over here in ECFL 2nite.
Windy, drought, not a good combination.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Only if you wanted to hear the hidden heathen messages.
Thats why I asked. Wondered if they'd imported a bunch from Up Yonder and carried them out beyond the Black Stump and that might explain some things.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
549. Tygor
Quoting PcolaDan:


April
Month to date precipitation 0.76 3.89
Year to date precipitation 14.67 20.31

May
Month to date precipitation 2.65 4.40
Year to date precipitation 17.32 24.71

June
Month to date precipitation 0.00 1.29
Year to date precipitation 17.32 26.00



Average Rates
Month Precipitation
Jan 5.34in.
Feb 4.68in.
Mar 6.40in.
Apr 3.89in.
May 4.40in.
Jun 6.39in.
Jul 8.02in.
Aug 6.85in.
Sept 5.75in.
Oct 4.13in.
Nov 4.46in.
Dec 3.97in.



Even though you are under average, you are at least still getting rain pretty consistently. San Antonio is only about 10" under average for the year, but .82" since January 6th is bad even for here.
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We have a TD in the eastern Pacific and people are still obsessing over a wimpy Caribbean monsoon low that has pretty much 0 chance of developing?

Quoting Jedkins01:


haha so true.

I am so glad I can say with all honesty that I do not text while driving, better yet I don't really text much at all. It has its usage, but common, texting and driving is down right stupid. As I was saying earlier, wisdom is a dying thing in today's society, its not just the prideful responses to severe weather, but everyday life.

I have a neighbor who foolishly mocks me for telling him its dangerous to drink and drive, and calls me a "not a real man" because I take cover during storms. Its only a matter of time before he or someone his hurt for such outrageous decision making and thinking.


Sounds like a stereotypical fool whose last words will be "hey guys, watch this".
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Quoting Jedkins01:


haha so true.

I am so glad I can say with all honesty that I do not text while driving, better yet I don't really text much at all. It has its usage, but common, texting and driving is down right stupid. As I was saying earlier, wisdom is a dying thing in today's society, its not just the prideful responses to severe weather, but everyday life.

I have a neighbor who foolishly mocks me for telling him its dangerous to drink and drive, and calls me a "not a real man" because I take cover during storms. Its only a matter of time before he or someone his hurt for such outrageous decision making and thinking.

A few years ago before I hurt my back. I used to play baseball. Playing summer comp, I could see a storm coming in, we play with aluminum bats here in amateur league, I was next up to bat, I could see the lightening with thunder not far behind, I refused to go up to the plate to bat. My coach asked me why. I told him I didn't want to bat with so much lightening around. within seconds a bolt hit a tree about 100yards away. Straight away the game was called off. Hell, I wasn't going to be a bloody lightening rod. Been struck once already and barely survived, don't want to be struck ever again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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