Arizona wildfires spread smoke 1,000 miles; 94L little threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on June 07, 2011

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Smoke from Arizona's third largest fire on record, the massive Wallow fire, has now blown downwind over 1,000 miles to Iowa. The fire, which is 0% contained, is expected to rage full-force for at least three more days due to unfavorable weather. Hot, dry, and windy weather is predicted again today over Eastern Arizona, where NOAA has issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions. A large trough of low pressure is anchored over the Southwest, and several disturbances rippling along this trough will bring strong southwesterly surface winds of 20 - 30 mph, with gusts near 35 mph, through Thursday. Extremely low humidities of 5 - 15% and hot summer temperatures are also expected, creating a dangerous fire weather situation. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for 8 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 12%. During the day yesterday, the fire grew from 300 square miles to 365 square miles, 30% of the size of Rhode Island. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 163-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.5 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Active wildfires and smoke as visualized at 9am EDT June 7, 2011 using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke from the Wallow fire and Horseshoe Two fire in Arizona extended more than 1,000 miles, covering most of the Midwest.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on June 6, 2011. The fire beneath the smoke is outlined in red. A large pyrocumulus cloud spawned by the fire is visible along the Arizona-New Mexico border. Pyrocumulus clouds are produced by the intense heating associated with fires or volcanic eruptions. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards website.

Caribbean disturbance 94L little threat to develop
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean near Jamaica is looking much less organized this morning, but is still capable of bringing heavy rains as it pushes slowly northwards at less than 5 mph. Satellite estimates of rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8pm EDT Monday night run as high as 5 inches for northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras, with 2 - 4 inches falling over portions of Jamaica and southeast Cuba. Satellite loops show a decrease in the heavy thunderstorm activity and organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are very poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 100 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman Island. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean is quite moist, and water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm. Wind shear has edged into the high range, 20 - 25 knots, which has probably contributed to 94L's deterioration.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. The storm is moving slowly to the north, into a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots that lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The SHIPS model predicts shear will rise above 30 knots by late tonight, which will make development into a tropical depression difficult. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. The 00Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week, but this is looking increasingly unlikely. At 8am EDT today, NHC gave 94L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Thursday. These rains will probably spread northwards into the Bahama Islands, and possibly South Florida, by Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs (colosprgs)
Past several days Pikes Peak and foothills covered in smoke. Photo taken at 3:30pm.
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs
Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire

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Quoting Bitmap7:
Does the GFS detect anything beyond 200hrs for our basin?


Nope.

It's going to be quiet for at least 10-15 days.

Only June though...
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Just finished compilation of a blog on 94L and TD One-E/Adrian. I'm glad to finally bid adieu to frustrating 94L. :P


Tell me about it. That was the worst tropical disturbance ever! When I got frustrated and left it, it started to rain in cayman because of it. I was watching E3 live on cable when this happened, and my TV said complete signal loss. Know why? Severe rain from 94l -_-.
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Quoting HurricaneKing:


I never understand why that always shows more moisture than the water vapor loops. Because using water vapor imagry you see dry to the north with the outflow fanning out over it and some dry air to the south. If it stays smaller which it looks like its going to do now that its finally tightening up then its moisture envelope should hold.


Link
Water Vapor imagery only looks at the upper levels of the atmosphere. The total precipitable water product looks at the total amount of water in the entire column of air. That would explain the difference
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Does the GFS detect anything beyond 200hrs for our basin?
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Quoting Bitmap7:


Would not be surprised to see a 60mph TS tommorrow imo.

Sure is looking good. Starting to get the buzz saw look
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
Quoting FLdewey:
Sarcasm is not just a mood in Destin.

ALMOST got a coastal shower today... watched it die off as it came on shore... hundreds of feet from my house.

Grrrrrr.

At least there is a chaser on chaserTV in Florida now... gives me something to watch from work.
Came up with a sarcasm flag for another place I post. Ya got to watch out for the Humor Impaired. goes like this

!~"
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
It's a "chicken and egg" thing as one helps the other.

I thought it was a duck and a pond...

g'night ya'll
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Quoting Bitmap7:


Would not be surprised to see a 60mph TS tommorrow imo.


You are probably right.
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

IN PUERTO RICO
PONCE

* UNTIL 1145 PM AST

* AT 844 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PONCE. THIS RAIN WILL CAUSE
FLOODING ALONG RIO CERRILLOS AND RIO INABON.

------------------------------------------
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
BARCELONETA
MANATI

* UNTIL 1215 AM AST

* AT 907 PM AST...USGS RIVER SENSORS HAVE INDICATED THAT RIO GRANDE
DE MANATI IN MANATI HAS GONE OVER FLOOD STAGE AND CONTINUES TO RISE.
AT 25 FEET... RIO GRANDE DE MANATI IN MANATI FLOODS ROAD 666 IN
SECTOR CACHETE.

FOR THE RIO GRANDE DE MANATI NEAR MANATI- MANP4
FLOOD STAGE - 25 FEET.
AT 907 PM AST...THE USGS SENSOR INDICATED THE RIVER HAD RISEN
TO...25.08 FEET.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010


Would not be surprised to see a 60mph TS tommorrow imo.
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Quoting Hurrykane:
Trouble


It's been almost completely dust-free so far, and those waves will tend to keep it so.
It's a "chicken and egg" thing as one helps the other.
Less dust more rain more rain less dust.

Those waves tend to dry out over the ocean so early in the season though.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


SHIPS gave Adrian a high probability of undergoing Rapid Intensification over the next day or so.


Oh it did, wow. When a system has such great from from early its very indicative that it may undergo rapid intensification, especially when the atmospheric conditions are so right.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
look like a tropical storm to me.

Wondered if you'd make one of them.
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Quoting FLdewey:
The season's over right?
I think you are on to something.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Roger dat,,makes sense
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Quoting Bitmap7:




Conditions almost seem perfect for him to bomb out soon.


SHIPS gave Adrian a high probability of undergoing Rapid Intensification over the next day or so.
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Quoting Hurrykane:


Or great differences in SST.


Precisely. The cooler waters innate to that portion of the basin creates subsidence.
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Trouble dosent come from Africa the first week of June,,


Nor the second..




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Quoting Hurrykane:
Trouble



ITCZ seems to be rising up on that, there is also a surprising lack of SAL.
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Conditions almost seem perfect for him to bomb out soon.
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Quoting Hurrykane:


Son of Karen

LoL.
Long-Lived Karen.
I remember her.
Stamina was her big issue. She had too much...
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Quoting Bitmap7:
CIMSS shows it has alot of SAL to deal with.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitW. jpg


That is reflective of the very dry marine airmass that is inherently characteristic of that part of the Pacific.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Environment surrounding it looks moist to me



(its centered around 100W)


I never understand why that always shows more moisture than the water vapor loops. Because using water vapor imagry you see dry to the north with the outflow fanning out over it and some dry air to the south. If it stays smaller which it looks like its going to do now that its finally tightening up then its moisture envelope should hold.


Link
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CIMSS shows it has alot of SAL to deal with.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitW. jpg
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>
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Bah... 40 comments too late! Anyways, track map up
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CIMSS has TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN
Link
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Dewey was likewise being sarcastic.


I know.
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Quoting HurricaneKing:


Not a problem. It freaked me out when I first saw it happen before.

Another thing I've noticed is has anyone noticed the amount of what appears to be mid level dry air that is around td 1e? So far its managing to fight it off but if it was to spin up quickly it may ingest some of it. It's going to be fun to track over the next couple days. It's one of the storms that the professors at my college teach us to love to track. One that probably wont ever hit land and hurt anyone.
Environment surrounding it looks moist to me



(its centered around 100W)
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Adrian looking pretty healthy right now
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, we will stay at 0-0-0 all season long, with no development at all :P

Sarcasm flag: ON


Dewey was likewise being sarcastic.
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Quoting alfabob:
Even if 94L dies, if may be brought back by the NHC if another surface feature forms near it or absorbs it. The way the low is being elongated makes me think it will be absorbed rather than fade out.

The Return of The Undead Storm.
Spooky stuff....
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Quoting j2008:
Would anybody have a link to something that says its TS Adrian, everything I've found says its still TD 1E.

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Quoting FLdewey:
The season's over right?


Yes, we will stay at 0-0-0 all season long, with no development at all :P

Sarcasm flag: ON
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Already have my blog heading for tomorrow..."Enter TS Adrian...The first TS of the 2011 Pacific hurricane season forms"



I like it, mon ami.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No way. He is trying to convince me to try it but I will stick to chicken.

Try it, you'll love it. very low in Fat also.
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From ATCF, hello Adrian:

EP, 01, 2011060800, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1003W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60, 1008, 200, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, M,
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Quoting j2008:
Would anybody have a link to something that says its TS Adrian, everything I've found says its still TD 1E.


tropical/general information

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
Already have my blog heading for tomorrow..."Enter TS Adrian...The first TS of the 2011 Pacific hurricane season forms"

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Not Fade away


I'm a-gonna tell you how it's gonna be
you're gonna give your love to me
I wanna love you night and day
you know my love a-not fade away
a-well, you know my love a-not fade away

My love a-bigger than a cadillac
I try to show it and you drive a-me back
your love for me a-got to be real
for you to know just how I feel
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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