Arizona wildfires spread smoke 1,000 miles; 94L little threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on June 07, 2011

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Smoke from Arizona's third largest fire on record, the massive Wallow fire, has now blown downwind over 1,000 miles to Iowa. The fire, which is 0% contained, is expected to rage full-force for at least three more days due to unfavorable weather. Hot, dry, and windy weather is predicted again today over Eastern Arizona, where NOAA has issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions. A large trough of low pressure is anchored over the Southwest, and several disturbances rippling along this trough will bring strong southwesterly surface winds of 20 - 30 mph, with gusts near 35 mph, through Thursday. Extremely low humidities of 5 - 15% and hot summer temperatures are also expected, creating a dangerous fire weather situation. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for 8 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 12%. During the day yesterday, the fire grew from 300 square miles to 365 square miles, 30% of the size of Rhode Island. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 163-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.5 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Active wildfires and smoke as visualized at 9am EDT June 7, 2011 using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke from the Wallow fire and Horseshoe Two fire in Arizona extended more than 1,000 miles, covering most of the Midwest.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on June 6, 2011. The fire beneath the smoke is outlined in red. A large pyrocumulus cloud spawned by the fire is visible along the Arizona-New Mexico border. Pyrocumulus clouds are produced by the intense heating associated with fires or volcanic eruptions. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards website.

Caribbean disturbance 94L little threat to develop
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean near Jamaica is looking much less organized this morning, but is still capable of bringing heavy rains as it pushes slowly northwards at less than 5 mph. Satellite estimates of rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8pm EDT Monday night run as high as 5 inches for northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras, with 2 - 4 inches falling over portions of Jamaica and southeast Cuba. Satellite loops show a decrease in the heavy thunderstorm activity and organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are very poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 100 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman Island. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean is quite moist, and water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm. Wind shear has edged into the high range, 20 - 25 knots, which has probably contributed to 94L's deterioration.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. The storm is moving slowly to the north, into a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots that lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The SHIPS model predicts shear will rise above 30 knots by late tonight, which will make development into a tropical depression difficult. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. The 00Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week, but this is looking increasingly unlikely. At 8am EDT today, NHC gave 94L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Thursday. These rains will probably spread northwards into the Bahama Islands, and possibly South Florida, by Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs (colosprgs)
Past several days Pikes Peak and foothills covered in smoke. Photo taken at 3:30pm.
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs
Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire

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Adrian is one healthy looking storm:



I wonder if that dry spot in the center isn't the start of a banding eye?
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Quoting AussieStorm:

What dat?
big yellow globe thats our sun and the positions numbers and type of solar flares
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52380
Drought turns to dangerous flooding in China


A severe drought is finally breaking in parts of southern China, but some hard-hit areas are now being flooded.

Southern China's Yangtze River basin has been suffering a major dry spell which, in some places, has been the worst in more than five decades.

Yet many parched farms are now receiving extensive rainfall - so much that dangerous flooding has occurred.

According to the People's Daily, fresh rain has reduced the drought-affected area by 39 per cent.

It was especially good news in Hubei's and Hunan's rice bowl areas, but Jiangsu province, on the east coast, has received little extra rain and remains in the middle of a serious drought.


- ABC
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Flood-ravaged Grantham moves to higher ground


Five months after deadly flash floods ripped through Queensland's Lockyer Valley, construction has begun on an ambitious program to move a town to higher ground.

Grantham became a focal point during the flood after images of the wild water that swept homes and lives to ruin were broadcast across the country.

Local resident Jim Wilkin literally had to run for his life as the floods, which killed 19 people, raced through the town.

"I had my two little nieces, one under each arm and was running as fast as I could," he said.

"We got onto the railway line and we had to run to the school which is a kilometre away and as we were doing that the water was going over the railway line behind us and more or less chasing us."

After the floods, many in the town struggled with the decision of whether to rebuild or just pack up and leave.

The council came up with a third option, creating a new 485-hectare estate on a hill overlooking Grantham and promising a novel land-swap deal which has been taken up by 60 people.

Mayor Steve Jones says it is open to people across the Lockyer Valley and they can just swap their land, even if it is worth less than the block they receive, which will be decided by ballot.

"In stage one we would expect no more than 80 would be in a position to move and there's more than 60 of those have already moved forward to do it," he said.

"So we've had a very positive response. It is completely voluntary and I think that's the thing that's so important about this first scheme of this type.

"I think other areas can learn in the future but if you induce people rather than force them you can end up with some really positive outcomes and make people safer and happier in the long term."

The first families are expected to be in their new homes by Christmas. Mr Wilkin says he jumped at the offer.

"I wouldn't be able to stay where we were down there at night time, especially when it's storming, thinking that you know the same thing was going to happen again," he said.

"So up here, on the hill, I know I'm safe, no water can reach us up here."

Queensland Deputy Premier Paul Lucas says the State Government has helped in the project by allowing the council to bypass the normal development approval process.

"Normally if you did this from scratch it would two to three years at least to do it and even then it would have to be a new urban footprint," he said.

"So this has taken less than six months in terms of planning what would normally take years. But the land swap of the Council is a great idea and it's a model for many other communities in the future."

Brisbane City Council has taken a different approach, purchasing flooded homes outright. Only yesterday the new Lord Mayor, Graham Quirk, doubled the buyback fund to $10 million.

It is just one of the many financial strains the summer of natural disasters is having on local government.

Mr Quirk hands down his first budget tomorrow, describing it as one of the most difficult to frame in decades but promising to keep rate rises to inflation.

Queensland Premier Anna Bligh hands down her budget next week.


- ABC
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Well it's official. We now welcome Adrian!!!
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Quoting AussieStorm:

What dat?

dat de Sun, showin' where de sun-flares be.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
Quoting j2008:
How powerful do you think Adrian will get?

A. Strong TS
B. Cat. 1 Hurricane
C. Cat. 2 Hurricane
D. Cat. 3 Hurricane or Higher


Forecast Track
Time of Latest Forecast: 201106071800
Forecast Hour Latitude Longitude Intensity
0 11.5 259.9 30
12 12.2 259.6 40
24 12.8 259.3 50
36 13.6 258.5 60
48 14.5 257.6 70
72 15.2 255.6 80
96 16 254 85 CAT 1
120 17 252 75

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

What dat?
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Quoting sunlinepr:


672.
That's a really neat WVL. Shows the flow well. Thank you!

j2008,
Cat 1.5

See you all later.
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What do y'all think of storm plus. My sons mom n law was telling me today she gets info from there
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52380
Quoting j2008:
How powerful do you think Adrian will get?

A. Strong TS
B. Cat. 1 Hurricane
C. Cat. 2 Hurricane
D. Cat. 3 Hurricane or Higher

Typically the 1st Hurricane in the EPAC gets to Cat 1/2. so I am saying B/C
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52380
there is a med risk that 01E TS Adrian will be a hurricane within the next 12 hrs
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52380
www.solarham.com

M2.5 Flare - Just when things were very quiet, a M2.5 Solar Flare took place at 06:41 UTC Tuesday around Sunspot 1226 located in the southern hemisphere. A CME was also associated with this event. Click on this LINK to view a movie of the Coronal Mass Ejection. It does not appear to be fully earth directed, however a portion of it could cause some geomagnetic activity should it sweep past earth.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715





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Quoting j2008:
How powerful do you think Adrian will get?

A. Strong TS
B. Cat. 1 Hurricane
C. Cat. 2 Hurricane
D. Cat. 3 Hurricane or Higher


C/D
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SST Anomalies for the last 10 weeks (2 week intervals)



Summary of SST trends:

Gulf of Mexico: Began warm, cooled, ended warm again
Caribbean: Progressively warmed
Mid Atlantic: Slightly warmed
Off of West Africa: Little to no change
Gulf of Guinea: Significantly cooled
Nino 1 2: Slightly warmed
Nino 3, 3.4, 4: Slightly warmed
Northern East Pacific: Warmed
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EP012011 - Tropical Storm ADRIAN

They refer as TS Adrian

Link
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677. j2008
How powerful do you think Adrian will get?

A. Strong TS
B. Cat. 1 Hurricane
C. Cat. 2 Hurricane
D. Cat. 3 Hurricane or Higher
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
T.C.F.W.
01E/TS/A/CX
MARK
11.85N/100.55W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52380
Good Evening.

Haven't checked in all day, we lost internet during the afternoon downpour. First time we've had lightening with this system. It continues to rain (I'm in Norbrook/St. Andrew/Jamaica) but not heavily right now. The ground is very saturated so any more rain will be a problem soon. More and more damage reports seem to come in with each passing newscast.

Hope the shear picks up to blow this system away. Getting tired of the rain. The water authorities say both catchment areas are at 100%.

Wish I could send some of the rain for you guys up north. It seems to be a season of extremes.

Have a good night.
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Quoting Pipejazz:
saw this on The Scientist site

A 2008 paper that criticized scientific support for global warming has been retracted, according to ScienceInsider. The study, published in Computational Statistics and Data Analysis and based on a controversial 2006 report on global warming commissioned by the US Congress, concluded that climate scientists favorably publish one another’s work because of too-close collaboration and questioned whether global warming was real, notes USA Today. The paper has been retracted because of plagiarism — excerpts from Wikipedia and two textbooks appeared without citation in the paper’s introduction, according to the retraction notice.
Link
This is a tropics blog, if you'd like to discuss Global Warming or Climate Change, there are many eager debaters right here
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I
Quoting AussieStorm:

That must be a sizable fire to show up like that on RADAR


It is a big fire because from my backyard here in the area of Tamiami Airport,Kendall, you can clearly see the red smoke looking to the NW.
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saw this on The Scientist site

A 2008 paper that criticized scientific support for global warming has been retracted, according to ScienceInsider. The study, published in Computational Statistics and Data Analysis and based on a controversial 2006 report on global warming commissioned by the US Congress, concluded that climate scientists favorably publish one another’s work because of too-close collaboration and questioned whether global warming was real, notes USA Today. The paper has been retracted because of plagiarism — excerpts from Wikipedia and two textbooks appeared without citation in the paper’s introduction, according to the retraction notice.
Link
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Quoting RickWPB:
The fire in west Miami-Dade is still growing and is only 10% contained. 7400 acres has burned so far. It even shows up on radar. I'm used to seeing smoke on radar, but this actually looks like the flames showing up.

S. Florida radar

That must be a sizable fire to show up like that on RADAR
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Quoting klaatuborada:
Well, my asthma is going to have lots of fun tomorrow here on the east coast! Wish me luck!


May the Force be with you.
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Quoting shoreacres:
Quoting KoritheMan:

18z GFS shows a large tropical disturbance hitting south Texas by days 13/14, but little else.


First time through I read that as "days 1,314". Seems realistic.


Pragmatically, there is negligible difference. ;)
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Well, my asthma is going to have lots of fun tomorrow here on the east coast! Wish me luck!
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
You the master. I was just musing. Proly something better to be had. Just sayin. Like the flashing deal. Howja do dat?


Here's something interesting. I normally use Chrome and couldn't see it flashing.
Opened it in Firefox and I could see it flashing.
hmmmmmm
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Quoting RickWPB:
The fire in west Miami-Dade is still growing and is only 10% contained. 7400 acres has burned so far. It even shows up on radar. I'm used to seeing smoke on radar, but this actually looks like the flames showing up.

S. Florida radar


Wicked.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

18z GFS shows a large tropical disturbance hitting south Texas by days 13/14, but little else.


First time through I read that as "days 1,314". Seems realistic.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I only stated that because Bitmap asked. I personally do not lend any credence to any model solution beyond 10 days out.
can't blame you
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The cooling in the Gulf of Guinea is quite interesting. That's probably why the ECMWF is starting to point out a more active CV season than its earlier forecasts. 
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The fire in west Miami-Dade is still growing and is only 10% contained. 7400 acres has burned so far. It even shows up on radar. I'm used to seeing smoke on radar, but this actually looks like the flames showing up.

S. Florida radar
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Quoting FLdewey:
Does it work like a tag Shen?

!~" BUST !~"

Or is it just like an asterisk in a used car ad?

This season is a bust... no chance of tropical development. !~"
You the master. I was just musing. Proly something better to be had. Just sayin. Like the flashing deal. Howja do dat?
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
Quoting j2008:
Do you all think were going to get a string of Cape Verde Storms this year like we had last year?
We should see at least a few Cape Verde storms this year, but it probably won't be as active as it was last year.

Several people have already mentioned this, but it will be a neutral year (regarding the ENSO), which typically means less heat over the Eastern Atlantic than there is during La Nina years (like last year).

This is clearly visible on the SST maps

2011 SST anomalies


2010 SST anomalies


So, relative to last year, we will likely have a slower Cape Verde season with less storms forming in the East or Mid Atlantic like they did last year.

However, it is also important to note that SSTs are still above average off of Africa and all of the mid Atlantic. Which means emerging waves will have more energy to work with, making development easier. And additionally, waters off the Gulf of Guinea are much cooler than normal. This means there will be a greater temperature difference between the Saharan desert and the Atlantic ocean to the south. This will create stronger pressure gradients, and as a result of the stronger pressure gradients, a stronger African Easterly Jet. This means stronger Tropical Waves coming off Africa, and the ITCZ should be further north than normal which generally means less dust or Saharan Air Layer over the Atlantic.

Looking at the models, the long range seasonal forecast weather models also seem to support this idea. The ECMWF is calling for below average surface pressures and above average rainfall over Western Africa and the Cape Verde region (as well as the Caribbean, mid Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico) throughout the entire hurricane season. The UKMET model is calling for drier conditions over the Cape Verde region (but wetter than average conditions across the rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico), meaning a slower Cape Verde season. I wouldn't put to much trust in the UKMET forecast, as it predicted a drier than average Cape Verde season last year in the May 2010 forecast, and look how far off it was. Finally, the third seasonal forecasting model, the CFS, is calling for about average rain over Western Africa and the Cape Verde region (but above average rain through out the Caribbean, mid Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico).


As a result, I would expect a weaker Cape Verde season than last year, but probably a more active than average Cape Verde year...most likely not as weak as most people would expect in a neutral year.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Does it work like a tag Shen?

!~" BUST !~"

Or is it just like an asterisk in a used car ad?

This season is a bust... no chance of tropical development. !~"


Of course the seasons a BUST, this is wunderground in June, LOL...
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Really hope we can get some rain down here...

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Quoting TomTaylor:
that's a long ways out, but if it plays out, that would be great news for the ongoing drought


I only stated that because Bitmap asked. I personally do not lend any credence to any model solution beyond 10 days out.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Came up with a sarcasm flag for another place I post. Ya got to watch out for the Humor Impaired. goes like this

!~"



Yep, it works.


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Quoting Bitmap7:
CIMSS shows it has alot of SAL to deal with.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitW. jpg
Most likely, that is not the Saharan Air Layer.

Here's a quote from the CIMSS website regarding their SAL product Link:

Dry air and suspended aerosols (e.g. mineral dust) both contribute to a positive "SAL" signal in this imagery, but the relative contribution of each cannot be determined from this imagery alone.


and

Polar air originating from the mid-latitudes produces a positive signal in this imagery that is similar to that of the SAL. This is because both air masses contain substantial dry air in the lower to middle troposphere. The JAVA movie is a useful tool for determining which type of air mass is being indicated in the imagery.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


18z GFS shows a large tropical disturbance hitting south Texas by days 13/14, but little else.
that's a long ways out, but if it plays out, that would be great news for the ongoing drought
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Quoting Bitmap7:


Tell me about it. That was the worst tropical disturbance ever! When I got frustrated and left it, it started to rain in cayman because of it. I was watching E3 live on cable when this happened, and my TV said complete signal loss. Know why? Severe rain from 94l -_-.


I thought E3 was only watchable online? Guess I was wrong.
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Quoting Bitmap7:
Does the GFS detect anything beyond 200hrs for our basin?


18z GFS shows a large tropical disturbance hitting south Texas by days 13/14, but little else.
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relative to yesterday, the blog sure is quiet tonight
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.