Arizona wildfires spread smoke 1,000 miles; 94L little threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on June 07, 2011

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Smoke from Arizona's third largest fire on record, the massive Wallow fire, has now blown downwind over 1,000 miles to Iowa. The fire, which is 0% contained, is expected to rage full-force for at least three more days due to unfavorable weather. Hot, dry, and windy weather is predicted again today over Eastern Arizona, where NOAA has issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions. A large trough of low pressure is anchored over the Southwest, and several disturbances rippling along this trough will bring strong southwesterly surface winds of 20 - 30 mph, with gusts near 35 mph, through Thursday. Extremely low humidities of 5 - 15% and hot summer temperatures are also expected, creating a dangerous fire weather situation. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for 8 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 12%. During the day yesterday, the fire grew from 300 square miles to 365 square miles, 30% of the size of Rhode Island. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 163-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.5 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Active wildfires and smoke as visualized at 9am EDT June 7, 2011 using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke from the Wallow fire and Horseshoe Two fire in Arizona extended more than 1,000 miles, covering most of the Midwest.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on June 6, 2011. The fire beneath the smoke is outlined in red. A large pyrocumulus cloud spawned by the fire is visible along the Arizona-New Mexico border. Pyrocumulus clouds are produced by the intense heating associated with fires or volcanic eruptions. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards website.

Caribbean disturbance 94L little threat to develop
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean near Jamaica is looking much less organized this morning, but is still capable of bringing heavy rains as it pushes slowly northwards at less than 5 mph. Satellite estimates of rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8pm EDT Monday night run as high as 5 inches for northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras, with 2 - 4 inches falling over portions of Jamaica and southeast Cuba. Satellite loops show a decrease in the heavy thunderstorm activity and organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are very poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 100 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman Island. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean is quite moist, and water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm. Wind shear has edged into the high range, 20 - 25 knots, which has probably contributed to 94L's deterioration.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. The storm is moving slowly to the north, into a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots that lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The SHIPS model predicts shear will rise above 30 knots by late tonight, which will make development into a tropical depression difficult. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. The 00Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week, but this is looking increasingly unlikely. At 8am EDT today, NHC gave 94L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Thursday. These rains will probably spread northwards into the Bahama Islands, and possibly South Florida, by Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs (colosprgs)
Past several days Pikes Peak and foothills covered in smoke. Photo taken at 3:30pm.
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs
Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire

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Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
Quoting midgulfmom:
Wll try thanks Tom. :)
np, good luck
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
Quoting pottery:

It's a Bad one all right.
Hope that it's not a trend.

The thing is, even if you get rainfalls in later June-july to make up the deficit, and even if this kind of drought never happens again, there are long-term after-effects with soil condition, vegetation stresses, and subtle changes to the eco-system that may not be evident for several seasons.

It's a Serious Situation.



It is a serious situation, but keep in mind, nature is great at recovering. The biggest issue I think, is that since Florida is normally a wet climate, once we break out of this dry weather, it could bounch back to the other extreme, well above normal amounts of rain and thunderstorms leading to severe weather and flooding. It seems that the climate everywhere is wacked, you are often either in a serious drought, or way too much rain...
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possible development of an eyewall???
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
Wll try thanks Tom. :)
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T.C.F.W.
01E/TS/A/CX
MARK
11.90N/101.13W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting midgulfmom:
Tom Taylor: YES! tried to quote you but I couldn't. What's up? Do you know? Was fiddling with some stuff but no luck.
I don't know what the problem is exactly, but it seems like most of the people who have trouble viewing the blog are those using Internet Explorer.

So I'd recommend using Mozilla Firefox or Google Chrome instead of Internet Explorer.

Firefox and Chrome are also faster and safer relative to Internet Explorer, from what I've heard.
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Max Mayfield said this will probably be the latest start to the rainy season ever in South Florida.
Link
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Wild Winds: Changes in Weather Patterns Creating More Severe Storms

Tornado. A Kansas State University climate expert attributes the increase in the number and severity of tornadoes and severe storms in 2011 to a change in weather patterns. (Credit: © Chris White / Fotolia)

ScienceDaily (June 7, 2011) — A Kansas State University climate expert attributes the increase in the number and severity of tornadoes and severe storms in 2011 to a change in weather patterns.

John Harrington Jr., professor of geography, is a synoptic climatologist who examines the factors behind distinctive weather events. He credits the increased tornado production this year to jet stream patterns in the upper atmosphere. The patterns have created synoptic events such as the April tornado outbreak in Alabama and recent tornado in Joplin, Mo. While these events are not unprecedented, they are significant, he said.

"To put them in all in one year, that's what has people talking about this stuff," Harrington said. "The fact that this is happening all in one year and in a relatively short time frame is unusual."..................

Link
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Tom Taylor: YES! tried to quote you but I couldn't. What's up? Do you know? Was fiddling with some stuff but no luck.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
Quoting midgulfmom:
Good evening. The blog is only showing 2/3 of the page on my computer. Anyone else experiencing this or is it just me? Thanks
all is good on my computer. are you using Internet Explorer by any chance?
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Quoting RukusBoondocks:
does that mean the sun goona end?


No, but keep an eye on it~! :)

A Carrington event would not be good in today's, or tomorrows world for sure ~~~

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Thanks Pottery...Will look around for a "button" of some sort to try..hahaha...geesh, I hate showing my computer lameness...enjoy your commentaries. :)
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Good evening. The blog is only showing 2/3 of the page on my computer. Anyone else experiencing this or is it just me? Thanks

Fine here.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24801
Quoting tropicfreak:


Thats some quite huge and strong blobs about to exit Africa, seems a little low in terms of latitude.


They look good, yes!
Maybe we will have something to look at tomorrow...
As they dry up LOL.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24801
T.C.F.W.
01E/TS/A/CX
MARK
11.90N/101.13W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting TomTaylor:
yeah you're right. But during hurricane season people get very easily annoyed by the gw debate.

And quite honestly, I can't blame them. Minor comments on the topic are fine, but when we get a full scale debate on the topic it gets ugly. Name calling and countless logical fallacies dominate true gw debates. Not to mention we have a blog purposely created for such debates. For these reasons, unless Jeff specifically makes a post on the topic or it is not hurricane season, I usually dislike seeing the topic debated on this blog.

Remember though, that's just my dos centavos, feel free to tell me to shut up...I ain't the blog police

Yeah, I respect that.
And I agree. The debate is never a fruitful one. People tend to have strong views on both sides and it all gets too Quarrelsom.
Enough of that though. Tonight.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24801
Good evening. The blog is only showing 2/3 of the page on my computer. Anyone else experiencing this or is it just me? Thanks
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Quoting Hurrykane:
Trouble



Thats some quite huge and strong blobs about to exit Africa, seems a little low in terms of latitude.

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
724. Skyepony (Mod)
There's a backdoor trof/vort now moving up gulf near the west side of FL..looks neat on satellite..kinda spinning up, except all my gulf only views/links aren't working. So haven't had a close look at it yet. Anybody got one that is?

Actually got a Trace of rain from it a few hours ago. Low level clouds flying in from the east. Had a tropical feel.
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does that mean the sun goona end?
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Quoting portcharlotte:
The continuation of the severe drought in South Florida this far into June has probably not happened in many many years. I have never seen blank radar screens over South Florida in June for this number of days. Certanly, one must hope for some type of tropical connection to break the drought.

It's a Bad one all right.
Hope that it's not a trend.

The thing is, even if you get rainfalls in later June-july to make up the deficit, and even if this kind of drought never happens again, there are long-term after-effects with soil condition, vegetation stresses, and subtle changes to the eco-system that may not be evident for several seasons.

It's a Serious Situation.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24801
When viewing those pictures of the solar flare, consider this: a full-fledged hurricane on earth would cover approximately three pixels.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
Two things: Neapolitan, please change your background. it gets too dark to read towards the end - Please.
The next is wondering about the storms that spung up over the south-central region of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana; I've heard an old-time Civil Defense director tell tales of low pressure forming over land and going back out to sea then developing into a stronger low usually bringing rain and winds to the gulf coast. I haven't found any instances of that happening but I believe this system is compact enough and strong enough to be carried back out... It's unusual for us to get storms of this strength from the east or southeast this time of year.

One of them thangs (sic) that gets my attention
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Quoting pottery:

That's a bit harsh...
Global Weather and Climate Change are intrinsically linked.

And the Author of this blog has often referred to the issue raised by the person you quoted.
It may annoy a couple people, but there are times that there is a quite healthy debate on Global Warming, right here.
yeah you're right. But during hurricane season people get very easily annoyed by the gw debate.

And quite honestly, I can't blame them. Minor comments on the topic are fine, but when we get a full scale debate on the topic it gets ugly. Name calling and countless logical fallacies dominate true gw debates. Not to mention we have a blog purposely created for such debates. For these reasons, unless Jeff specifically makes a post on the topic or it is not hurricane season, I usually dislike seeing the topic debated on this blog.

Remember though, that's just my dos centavos, feel free to tell me to shut up...I ain't the blog police
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If Japan had land frontiers with other countries, the real magnitud of that meltdown would had been exposed long ago. The localization of the accident with the Pacific to the east, also the fact that usually winds blow East taking long time for the fallout to reach other countries, diluted, favors the coverage given... If that accident would have been in the West, the situation with China would have been really serious...
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Quoting Ossqss:


Been quite active~

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline .html

The blast produced an M2-class solar flare, an S1-class radiation storm, and a massive CME. A recording of the blast from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory ranks as one of the most beautiful and dramatic movies of the SDO era: "spaceweather.com"

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Here's a video of today's amazing solar flare captured in different temperatures. Incredible:

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
SPACE WEATHER BREAKING

An unusual solar flare observed by a NASA space observatory on Tuesday could cause some disruptions to satellite communications and power on Earth over the next day or so, officials said.
The potent blast from the Sun unleashed a firestorm of radiation on a level not witnessed since 2006, and will likely lead to moderate geomagnetic storm activity by Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service.
"This one was rather dramatic," said Bill Murtagh, program coordinator at the NWS's Space Weather Prediction Center, describing the M-2 (medium-sized) solar flare that peaked at 1:41 am Eastern time in the United States, or 0541 GMT.
"We saw the initial flare occurring and it wasn't that big but then the eruption associated with it -- we got energy particle radiation flowing in and we got a big coronal mass injection," he said.
"You can see all the materials blasting up from the Sun so it is quite fantastic to look at."

http://beta.news.yahoo.com/unusual-solar-storm-co uld-disrupt-earth-communications-194814480.html
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The continuation of the severe drought in South Florida this far into June has probably not happened in many many years. I have never seen blank radar screens over South Florida in June for this number of days. Certanly, one must hope for some type of tropical connection to break the drought.
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Looks like Adrian may intensify very rapidly. We might have a hurricane by late tomorrow morning/early afternoon.
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Quoting Patrap:
Kinda fiqured dat when the Roofs Blew off from the Hydrogen Gas KABOOM's and the er,,situation was said, to be contained was announced.

I think that what is being announced now, is not too surprising to those who thought about it...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24801
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I think Adrian will hit cat 3, in the E-pac its a lot easier for early season storms to reach major hurricane status, and conditions are good for the next few days, they're prediction takes it to Cat 2 but I think the prediction shows Adrian as a Cat 1 for too long.
personally, I don't like calling peak intensity, because I think its too early. I always think there isnt much forecast skill predicting peak intensity this early in the game.

Nonetheless, I think it will reach hurricane status, but from there I really don't know how much more it will intensify. Could become a major...which would be amazing considering its early June
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Quoting TomTaylor:
This is a tropics blog, if you'd like to discuss Global Warming or Climate Change, there are many eager debaters right here

That's a bit harsh...
Global Weather and Climate Change are intrinsically linked.

And the Author of this blog has often referred to the issue raised by the person you quoted.
It may annoy a couple people, but there are times that there is a quite healthy debate on Global Warming, right here.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24801
Soon maybe...Kori
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
709. j2008
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I think Adrian will hit cat 3, in the E-pac its a lot easier for early season storms to reach major hurricane status, and conditions are good for the next few days, they're prediction takes it to Cat 2 but I think the prediction shows Adrian as a Cat 1 for too long.

Especially if it starts into a phase of rapid intensification.
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Quoting Patrap:
Bonus Nocturnal action tonight


Boomers outside..




Had some rain here in Prairieville, along with some lightning, but little else. I'll get my severe thunderstorm one of these days!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
big yellow globe thats our sun and the positions numbers and type of solar flares


Been quite active~

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline .html

The blast produced an M2-class solar flare, an S1-class radiation storm, and a massive CME. A recording of the blast from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory ranks as one of the most beautiful and dramatic movies of the SDO era: "spaceweather.com"

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I think Adrian will hit cat 3, in the E-pac its a lot easier for early season storms to reach major hurricane status, and conditions are good for the next few days, they're prediction takes it to Cat 2 but I think the prediction shows Adrian as a Cat 1 for too long.


Satellite imagery shows the beginnings of an inner core. Quicker intensification than forecast is definitely a possibility.
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Bonus Nocturnal action tonight


Boomers outside..


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
I think Adrian will hit cat 3, in the E-pac its a lot easier for early season storms to reach major hurricane status, and conditions are good for the next few days, they're prediction takes it to Cat 2 but I think the prediction shows Adrian as a Cat 1 for too long.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Kinda fiqured dat when the Roofs Blew off from the Hydrogen Gas KABOOM's and the er,,situation was said, to be contained was announced.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
Quoting KoritheMan:
THIS ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS EVEN OF THE RAPID VARIETY.


I like the way that's worded. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
More good news:

Japan raises spectre of Fukushima 'melt-through'

For the first time, Japanese authorities have suggested the situation at the Fukushima nuclear plant may have gone beyond a meltdown.

An official report, which Japan will submit to the UN's nuclear watchdog, says nuclear fuel in three reactors at Fukushima has possibly melted through the pressure vessels and accumulated in outer containment vessels.

Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper says this "melt-through" is far worse than a core meltdown, and is the worst possibility in a nuclear accident.

This is the first official admission that a "melt-through" may have occurred.

In the report, Japan also admits it was unprepared for the scale of the Fukushima disaster, which struck after a devastating earthquake and tsunami in March.

The report also acknowledges there was insufficient communication between the government and the plant's operator.

ABC News (Australia) Article...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
Perfect S shape in WV image
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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 080246
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING NEAR THE CENTER HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL ROTATION NOTED. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC.
SINCE THAT TIME...INCREASED ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
MICROWAVE DATA...WITH EVIDENCE OF AN INNER-CORE STRUCTURE ON 0104
UTC SSMI/S IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40
KT...MAKING THIS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SEASON.

ADRIAN HAS NOT BEEN MOVING VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH A LONGER-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 300/3. THE CYCLONE IS
CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER MEXICO. THIS CHANGE IN
STEERING SHOULD RESULT IN ADRIAN TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE REMAINS A FAIR BIT OF
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS THE HWRF/GFDL SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING
MORE TOWARD THE NORTH CLOSER TO MEXICO BEFORE MAKING THAT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. GIVEN THE HISTORICAL BIASES OF THOSE
MODELS...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/UKMET
MODELS.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR NEAR ADRIAN WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 30C
ALONG ITS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS EVEN OF THE RAPID VARIETY. INDEED THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE INDICATES A 59 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MOST NEGATIVE FACTOR
AGAINST THIS OCCURRING IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THAT DRY AIR WOULD TAKE SOME TIME
PENETRATING THE CORE REGIONS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ANY SHEARING
MECHANISM TO ACCELERATE THAT PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
INTENSIFICATION...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...ADRIAN SHOULD BE OVER
COOLER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND THIS TIME.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 11.8N 100.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 12.2N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 13.0N 101.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 13.9N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 14.5N 103.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 15.5N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Quoting hurricaneben:
Well it's official. We now welcome Adrian!!!


Official...

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Adrian is one healthy looking storm:



I wonder if that dry spot in the center isn't the start of a banding eye?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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