Arizona wildfires spread smoke 1,000 miles; 94L little threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on June 07, 2011

Share this Blog
6
+

Smoke from Arizona's third largest fire on record, the massive Wallow fire, has now blown downwind over 1,000 miles to Iowa. The fire, which is 0% contained, is expected to rage full-force for at least three more days due to unfavorable weather. Hot, dry, and windy weather is predicted again today over Eastern Arizona, where NOAA has issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions. A large trough of low pressure is anchored over the Southwest, and several disturbances rippling along this trough will bring strong southwesterly surface winds of 20 - 30 mph, with gusts near 35 mph, through Thursday. Extremely low humidities of 5 - 15% and hot summer temperatures are also expected, creating a dangerous fire weather situation. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for 8 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 12%. During the day yesterday, the fire grew from 300 square miles to 365 square miles, 30% of the size of Rhode Island. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 163-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.5 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Active wildfires and smoke as visualized at 9am EDT June 7, 2011 using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke from the Wallow fire and Horseshoe Two fire in Arizona extended more than 1,000 miles, covering most of the Midwest.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on June 6, 2011. The fire beneath the smoke is outlined in red. A large pyrocumulus cloud spawned by the fire is visible along the Arizona-New Mexico border. Pyrocumulus clouds are produced by the intense heating associated with fires or volcanic eruptions. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards website.

Caribbean disturbance 94L little threat to develop
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean near Jamaica is looking much less organized this morning, but is still capable of bringing heavy rains as it pushes slowly northwards at less than 5 mph. Satellite estimates of rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8pm EDT Monday night run as high as 5 inches for northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras, with 2 - 4 inches falling over portions of Jamaica and southeast Cuba. Satellite loops show a decrease in the heavy thunderstorm activity and organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are very poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 100 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman Island. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean is quite moist, and water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm. Wind shear has edged into the high range, 20 - 25 knots, which has probably contributed to 94L's deterioration.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. The storm is moving slowly to the north, into a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots that lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The SHIPS model predicts shear will rise above 30 knots by late tonight, which will make development into a tropical depression difficult. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. The 00Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week, but this is looking increasingly unlikely. At 8am EDT today, NHC gave 94L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Thursday. These rains will probably spread northwards into the Bahama Islands, and possibly South Florida, by Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs (colosprgs)
Past several days Pikes Peak and foothills covered in smoke. Photo taken at 3:30pm.
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs
Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 847 - 797

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

very stormy africa this morning. if this trend continues then we might have an active july and the heart of the season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
846. IKE
Houston,TX. forecast shows highs in the mid 90's through Sunday and then upper 90's Monday and Tuesday. Twenty percent chance of rain...at the most...for the next week. Some days have no chance of rain for Houston.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
very active itcz ,this early in the season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New poster here but it seems like we're settling finally into a normal summer weather pattern here in SE Texas. Instead of warm and dry, it's warm and humid. We got 1 inch of rain Monday, parts of my county got the same on Sunday, and yesterday it poured like crazy in the two counties below me.

And instead of 105 highs like on Sunday and Monday, I don't think it got out of the 80's yesterday. The long range rain forecast looks better for us now too.

Sorry Florida if you don't get the rain out of what's left of 94, but we need it in Texas too. If it doesn't come your way, hopefully we get it next week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
843. IKE
No more floater on 94L
................................................. .................................................


SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW IS NEAR 18N81W. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NW TO N THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THU NIGHT REACHING WESTERN CUBA BY EARLY FRI...THEN POSSIBLY
TURN MORE TOWARDS TO THE N AND NE LATER FRI AND SAT AS IT PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA. PERSISTENT BROAD TROUGHING WILL LINGER IN
THE NORTH PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST
SE OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN HELPING TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

................................................. .................................................. ...........

94L will be moving into 50-60 knots of shear....


Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Solar Tsunami Heading Earth's Way; Auroras to be Visible on Thursday

Link
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
Quoting aquak9:
say that this will almost certainly be the hottest day many cities will see all year.

Maybe they meant, of the year thus far? Obviously they ain't spent an August afternoon in Florida.

No, they definitely used words along the lines of, "Wednesday and Thursday will probably be the hottest days any of these cities will see for the rest of the year".

Yeah, we've seen lots of heat here in Naples already, but the insane humidity hasn't hit yet; those 90/90 days are yet to come...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
weird, I just got an attack page from AGV. Anybody else seeing that here?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
say that this will almost certainly be the hottest day many cities will see all year.

Maybe they meant, of the year thus far? Obviously they ain't spent an August afternoon in Florida.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 177 Comments: 26629
838. IKE
Tampa, FL. extended....

FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 20-30 POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND WILL WAIT TO
SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
837. Hugo7
Adrian is getting an eye, and possible 95 on horizon outside of car
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting marknmelb:
Man we need 94L to gain a little strength and bring us some rain here in central Florida ... PLEASE!!!!

Wind shear is making 94L avoid hitting Florida. :( news for Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
835. IKE
The bearer of bad news...Miami discussion style....

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE W CARIB. TAFB
HAS DETERMINED A LOW CENTER NEAR 18N 81W AND THE FORECAST WILL BE
ABOUT HOW THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT S FLA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW GULF OF MEX...THE
LOW IN THE CARIB HAS SW WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND AT THIS TIME
RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BUT WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF/NAM DIFFER SOMEWHAT
FROM THE GFS IN THAT THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE W U.S. COAST WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. MOVING SE AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. BUT THE 2 FORMER MODELS MOVE A SURFACE
LOW NE JUST OFF OF THE SE FLA COAST WHILE THE LATTER...WHICH ALSO
MOVES THE LOW NE...BUT MUCH FURTHER E ACROSS E CUBA AND THE S
BAHAMAS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL SOME IN-FLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT GUIDANCE SLOWS THIS TREND BUT ALSO WITH THE
PROJECTED MOVEMENT...S FLA WILL BE ON THE "DRIER" SIDE.
FOR TODAY
...ESSENTIALLY DRY AND BREEZY THOUGH ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS EAST
COAST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE W INTERIOR
AND W. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVER S
FLA WITH POPS INCHING UPWARD FROM 20% THURSDAY TO 30% FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME
DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS...THE TREND
APPEARS TO KEEP S FLA ON THE DRIER SIDE OF ANY DEVELOPING ACTIVITY
SO THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE DOES NOT ARRIVE...WILL KEEP POPS
MINIMAL.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Supposed to be near 100 all over the eastern seaboard today and (especially) tomorrow. I've now heard two mets--obvious devotees of the same forecasting service--say that this will almost certainly be the hottest day many cities will see all year. IOW, it will get no warmer the entire rest of the summer. That seems to me a bit presumptuous given that it's, you know, only the first week of June. But what do I know?

Anyway, this should make some feel better about next week:

8 - 14 Day (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


:-\
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Saint- I like 0-0-0. But could we please do something about the rain deficit?

MAH- it only lasted maybe four minutes. Being only three miles inland, I get a bright, albeit quick horizon cross of the sun. This hippie doesn't do drugs.

Ike- I'm gonna do a rain dance very soon.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 177 Comments: 26629
Good morning. More rain for Puerto Rico today. The flash flood watch was extended until late afternoon. I haven't see the sun with a clear blue sky in San Juan for the past few days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
831. IKE
2 day QPF....


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Man we need 94L to gain a little strength and bring us some rain here in central Florida ... PLEASE!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
829. MahFL
aquak9, you popping LSD ?
Actually it is a pretty sunrise as I look out of the 14th story window.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning Ike and Aquak.Wait ike did not Crown weather say this 94L would develop?What about the 6000 posts from the kiddies? Looks like last year has ran over to this year with this blog.Well to still your thunder 0-0-0.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
827. IKE
Massive 20% chance of rain for you the next 6 days aquak. Break out the umbrellas and galoshes.

I had a 60% chance yesterday and got none.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning, good day to the rest of the world. A flourescent sunrise greets me here in NE Fla, all brilliant pinks and purples.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 177 Comments: 26629
It's time to put this in the coffin:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
824. IKE
Atlantic basin looks quiet the next 7-10 days.

0-0-0 rocks on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
823. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
RSMC Miami National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN (EP012011)
2:00 AM PDT June 8 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: "ADRIAN" Strengthens And Is Expected To Rapidly Strengthen

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Adrian (998 hPa) located at 12.0N 100.9W or 300 NM south of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 13.4N 102.0W - 70 knots (CAT 1/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.7N 104.3W - 90 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 15.5N 106.5W - 90 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blog dead.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

It's more complex than that, too.
Nuclear reaction is dependent upon the reaction of things one to another.
If you get the Physics right, you have a Nuclear Explosion.
Nuclear plants do this, but in a controlled way. Its a balancing act. The "explosion" is ongoing and is controlled and results in heat which generates steam to run turbines to turn generators.
When you have an earthquake, a tsunami, and a fire, you lose control.

I dont know if they shut down the reactors in a controlled way, or if they shut down because they could not control them.

They were pumping water onto the cores to cool them, because they were overheating. They had no control.


if you tune in to the BBC, they have great on going coverage, unlike CNN and fox and...AP

the reactors had a perfect worse case event, yes the earth quake effected them, and yes the Tasmania also.

some of the things I have learned is they "think" reactors 2,3,4 have "melted down" and have been in that state within 24 hours after the Tasmania, they have discovered some of the water level gauges to be reading inaccurately by as much as 20% higher than what the level really is.

the state of the -cores- has been simply explained that they -probably- over heated, the pellets then would have melted the rods they are in, the cluster of rods sets then would have dropped the pellets to the bottom of the containment vessel, which then the "blob" would eventually melted the bottom out of the containment vessel, which would release the core and the reactor water in to the basement. which would explain the on going battle of uncontrolled flow and high amount of radiation in the surround seas. the Fukashima plant is only one of a total of four plants that have noted problems, with a combination 15 reactors total (I think), The country of Japan is slightly smaller than the state of California.

Soon after this I wrote about it, before it hit the Chernobyl scale.

Link

just note the dates..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
820. JLPR2
If it weren't for the shear I would say the area now north of PR would be Pre-95L


It's got a nice vort with it.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
819. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST June 8 2011
==================================

Yesterday's low pressure area over east central Arabian Sea now lies as a well marked low pressure area over the same region

Vortex over Arabian Sea centered within half a degree of 17.5N 70.0E. Center is better seen in visible imagery and not much movement is observed in the system. Dvorak Intensity is T1.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection (cloud top temperature -88C) over arabian sea between 14.5N to 20.5N and 62.0E to 69.5E.

Scattered low/medium clouds with embedded isolated moderate to intense convection over rest Arabian Sea north of 8.0N east of 60.0E.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
818. Hugo7
Gave that storm a name. Storms love names.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JRRP:

mmmmmmm
Mmmhhhhhhhhhmmm

Well I'm off to bed, night all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
Well-defined eye feature aloft with Adrian:



Usually when this happens, rapid intensification quickly follows if conditions permit.
Yes..was thinking the same thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alfabob:
I'm thinking 94L will make its way over to Jamaica/Cuba and begin to form where the winds are converging and MLC was. Maybe by tomorrow it could be back if it continues NE.

maybe then after it does that it should strat to lift off to the NW-WNW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well-defined eye feature aloft with Adrian:



Usually when this happens, rapid intensification quickly follows if conditions permit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
813. JRRP

mmmmmmm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good nite to all. Enjoyed the banter. See ya on the flip side. Sleep well. Just say no to nuclear..LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting midgulfmom:
LOL China will like that. BTW Bob Breck is pretty good. He puts his own analysis on the weather, even if he's kinda goofy sometimes.
I agree. He has taken a licking on the Blog recently for some remarks he made on his Blog .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bitmap7:
Anyone has a sat image of the lightening going off in adrian?


I don't have any close up views over the storm, but here are 3 links to global views which give you a sense of the activity in the storm

Link 1
Link 2
Link 3

from the links it doesn't look like there is much lighting activity with the storm at the moment
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pottery, Good night and sleep well. Enjoyed the conversation!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Several Retired workers, in their 70's and older, have volunteered to go in and try to get the thing stabilized.
They know they will die from the Radiation, but they say "So? We will die anyway, soon"

I Salute them.
Indeed..so selfless, inspiring, and touching! I Salute them as well!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's late....

I'm gone>>>>>>

Stay Safe, all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W.
01E/TS/A/CX
MARK
11.90N/101.13W
Adrian showing 94L how it's done
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting midgulfmom:
I see. Heard a scientist on, again, NPR, explain it that way but I'm going from my middle aged memory (LOL). I think he did say that the meltdown would continue in Japan until they get under it or it looks much worse than most imagine. Sounds dreadfully dire. :(

Several Retired workers, in their 70's and older, have volunteered to go in and try to get the thing stabilized.
They know they will die from the Radiation, but they say "So? We will die anyway, soon"

I Salute them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
The local weatherman (Bob Breck) said it was an ULL and not a problem.
yep hes right
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
In Japan they call this melting down "The American Syndrome". :)
LOL China will like that. BTW Bob Breck is pretty good. He puts his own analysis on the weather, even if he's kinda goofy sometimes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
T.C.F.W.
01E/TS/A/CX
MARK
11.90N/101.13W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55972
Quoting FrankZapper:
To my understanding they achieved successful shutdowns of the 4 operating reactors after the quake, but then needed the diesel generators to power the cooling pumps for several weeks until the nuclear reactions and therefore heat petered out. That was my impression, but I ain't no Oppenheimer either.

It's more complex than that, too.
Nuclear reaction is dependent upon the reaction of things one to another.
If you get the Physics right, you have a Nuclear Explosion.
Nuclear plants do this, but in a controlled way. Its a balancing act. The "explosion" is ongoing and is controlled and results in heat which generates steam to run turbines to turn generators.
When you have an earthquake, a tsunami, and a fire, you lose control.

I dont know if they shut down the reactors in a controlled way, or if they shut down because they could not control them.

They were pumping water onto the cores to cool them, because they were overheating. They had no control.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 847 - 797

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
30 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron