Arizona wildfires spread smoke 1,000 miles; 94L little threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on June 07, 2011

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Smoke from Arizona's third largest fire on record, the massive Wallow fire, has now blown downwind over 1,000 miles to Iowa. The fire, which is 0% contained, is expected to rage full-force for at least three more days due to unfavorable weather. Hot, dry, and windy weather is predicted again today over Eastern Arizona, where NOAA has issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions. A large trough of low pressure is anchored over the Southwest, and several disturbances rippling along this trough will bring strong southwesterly surface winds of 20 - 30 mph, with gusts near 35 mph, through Thursday. Extremely low humidities of 5 - 15% and hot summer temperatures are also expected, creating a dangerous fire weather situation. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for 8 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 12%. During the day yesterday, the fire grew from 300 square miles to 365 square miles, 30% of the size of Rhode Island. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 163-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.5 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Active wildfires and smoke as visualized at 9am EDT June 7, 2011 using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke from the Wallow fire and Horseshoe Two fire in Arizona extended more than 1,000 miles, covering most of the Midwest.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on June 6, 2011. The fire beneath the smoke is outlined in red. A large pyrocumulus cloud spawned by the fire is visible along the Arizona-New Mexico border. Pyrocumulus clouds are produced by the intense heating associated with fires or volcanic eruptions. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards website.

Caribbean disturbance 94L little threat to develop
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean near Jamaica is looking much less organized this morning, but is still capable of bringing heavy rains as it pushes slowly northwards at less than 5 mph. Satellite estimates of rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8pm EDT Monday night run as high as 5 inches for northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras, with 2 - 4 inches falling over portions of Jamaica and southeast Cuba. Satellite loops show a decrease in the heavy thunderstorm activity and organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are very poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 100 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman Island. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean is quite moist, and water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm. Wind shear has edged into the high range, 20 - 25 knots, which has probably contributed to 94L's deterioration.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. The storm is moving slowly to the north, into a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots that lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The SHIPS model predicts shear will rise above 30 knots by late tonight, which will make development into a tropical depression difficult. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. The 00Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week, but this is looking increasingly unlikely. At 8am EDT today, NHC gave 94L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Thursday. These rains will probably spread northwards into the Bahama Islands, and possibly South Florida, by Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs (colosprgs)
Past several days Pikes Peak and foothills covered in smoke. Photo taken at 3:30pm.
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs
Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire

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Mornin' all! I thought this was an interesting read...
Understanding The Energy Of Tornadoes http://bit.ly/kYywMr
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Quoting FLdewey:
There is a low chance, near 0%, of this blog recovering from the death of 94L

There is a high chance, near 100% of this blog recovering from the transformation of 91E to TD ONE-E.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
the drum idea is (musical voice) AAAAWWE-Suhm!!
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this is the link for the CFS forecast model show 1 storm develops between the Leewards and CV rolls into the the Caribbean passes south of Jamaica then on top of the Cayman Islands and in the gulf

Link
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Link
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Though lacking a huge amount of convection , this is best defined I have actually seen the LLC on Satelite with 94L and its basically stationary.
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LOVE IT!!!!!!

:)


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85. kwgirl 3:47 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:
Rain is falling from the sky at work, but not at my houseRita, you have to get a drum and start visualizing the rain to fall on your home. I did this one summer (thinking it was a bunch of hooey) but was desperate when I kept seeing the rain approach and then go around Key West, meeting up on the other side. Just drum (I'm told it changes the vibrations) imagining the clouds forming then make sure you visualize them coming over your house and letting loose with the rain. Maybe a few drinks before you do this will help. If nothing else, you will get your frustrations out on the drum. Seriously, try



I'm sure your neighbors loved that...

;)
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Quoting kwgirl:
Maybe a few drinks before you do this will help. If nothing else, you will get your frustrations out on the drum. Seriously, try it.


A few drinks always help :)
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WTPN31 PNHC 071600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E WARNING NR 001
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
1500 UTC TUE JUN 07 2011

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 100.0W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 100.0W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 99.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 11.9N 100.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 12.5N 100.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.2N 101.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.0N 101.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.1N 103.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 15.5N 105.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 16.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 100.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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Ohhhhhhhh my GOD, cell developing near radar site near my house, come on blow up over my house
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Rain is falling from the sky at work, but not at my house
Rita, you have to get a drum and start visualizing the rain to fall on your home. I did this one summer (thinking it was a bunch of hooey) but was desperate when I kept seeing the rain approach and then go around Key West, meeting up on the other side. Just drum (I'm told it changes the vibrations) imagining the clouds forming then make sure you visualize them coming over your house and letting loose with the rain. Maybe a few drinks before you do this will help. If nothing else, you will get your frustrations out on the drum. Seriously, try it.
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Cell sitting right over Texas City, gotta be an inch approaching
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damn, dashboard cowman, those are a lot!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting Vincent4989:
Blog dead?

naw just invest withdrawals it will be all good once the crying stops and we realize there is still 175 days to go
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A lot of flash flood warnings

FLASH FLOOD WARNING GLASGOW MT - KGGW 922 AM MDT TUE JUN 7 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING CLEVELAND OH - KCLE 1044 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN JUAN PR - TJSJ 1034 AM AST TUE JUN 7 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN JUAN PR - TJSJ 1034 AM AST TUE JUN 7 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING POCATELLO - KPIH 829 AM MDT TUE JUN 7 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN JUAN PR - TJSJ 1022 AM AST TUE JUN 7 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN JUAN PR - TJSJ 1022 AM AST TUE JUN 7 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING CLEVELAND OH - KCLE 1022 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING PITTSBURGH PA - KPBZ 1018 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING DULUTH MN - KDLH 804 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN JUAN PR - TJSJ 1013 AM AST TUE JUN 7 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN JUAN PR - TJSJ 1013 AM AST TUE JUN 7 2011
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Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:


Tell me about it. We had a couple of days of cold weather here in South Florida that killed 20% of the plants I had in the yard and now the drought has claimed another 20%. I do have some great looking weeds that I am cultivating. The yard is a brownish color.
You must not be planting natives. I have natives in the ground and some plants including non-natives in pots. I water once a week.... usually I do not water the St. Augustine grass. But since it is pulling back, exposing more ground for weeds, I have been watering this twice a month. In fact our St. Augustine has been inundated with salt water and it comes back with just a little watering to rinse the salt off.
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58. PurpleDrank 3:00 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting Hugo7:
Two main paths for TD1E guld of cali or right into southern mexico.

will TD1E make it to the gulf and hit New Orleans?



??????
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Blog dead?
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
Rain is falling from the sky at work, but not at my house
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Quoting RitaEvac:
ewww wee, ewww weeeeee! lets go around RitaEvac again



Keep on moving north...
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Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
pOST 72, AHH the optimisim of youth lol.


AHH I am not as young as you think trust me
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Waiting on the GFS run.see if that low still develops near the east coast..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15743
pOST 72, AHH the optimisim of youth lol.
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well guys 94L now in it's coffin and is being slowly lowered into the grave but I do hear 94L not yet dead yet it is still producing som convection and the spin is still visible so its not really dead its more like dead for development unless aganst all odds the conditions could get a little favered and 94L fully takes up that advantige and become a very disorginised TD
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Quoting Vincent4989:
Look at the tropical weather page here, weird that TD- 1E is still classified as an invest.


They don't always take if off immeadiately.
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Oh well, guess 91E / TD-1E didn't warrant the mention...

And I'm equally still puzzled with this...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 07 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-007

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 07/1800Z AND FIX
MISSION FOR 08/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 07/1045Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

JWP

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Look at the tropical weather page here, weird that TD- 1E is still classified as an invest.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
Thundering in Texas City, TX. Ahh, sounds beautiful, haven't heard it in years seems like
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amazing the amount of rain that a weak disorganized 94l has produced that has gone right around cayman...its like we have some sort of wall around us!
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65. SLU
A weak rotation can be seen somewhere between PR and DR.

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Quoting stillwaiting:
interesting naked swirl forming north of yucatan,drifting wsw


You know things are slow when we're calling naked swirls interesting...LOL!

Hey Paul! How's it going this morning?
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ewww wee, ewww weeeeee! lets go around RitaEvac again

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Just made a new blog post regarding Invest 94 and TD-1E.
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Thanks Dr....Very depressing actually in terms of the record extent of wildfires in the US this year when you also consider the recent tornado outbreaks and deaths....Would be nice to get about 5 "mild" tropical storms impact the Gulf and other regions where water is most needed but Mother Nature is not cooperating so far this year.
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Quoting PurpleDrank:


will TD1E make it to the gulf and hit New Orleans?


Too early to say. Why do you think every storm will hit New Orleans?
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All eyes to 91E! No, i mean TD ONE-E
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
57. SLU
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


NHC had said they were not going to release their 6 and 7 day forecasts, guess they messed up first time out:

EP 01 2011060712 03 OFCL 120 165N 1075W 65 0 HU
EP 01 2011060712 03 OFCL 144 175N 1090W 55 0 TS
EP 01 2011060712 03 OFCL 168 180N 1110W 35 0 TS


apparently ...
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Two main paths for TD1E guld of cali or right into southern mexico.
Member Since: June 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
Shearly you must be joking Bob....

CMon whatever is left over, I would love to see you!

Sincerely Cape Coral
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01E/TD/A
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


I still hope that ex-94L will bring Florida some rain.



It more than likely will.

Also, the bustcasters on here. You guys....
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51. HCW
Catch her in Concert at 2pm when she sings to 94L


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Quoting SLU:
Soon to be hurricane Adrian

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 11.6N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 11.9N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 12.5N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 13.2N 101.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 14.0N 101.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 15.1N 103.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 15.5N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 16.5N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH


NHC had said they were not going to release their 6 and 7 day forecasts, guess they messed up first time out:

EP 01 2011060712 03 OFCL 120 165N 1075W 65 0 HU
EP 01 2011060712 03 OFCL 144 175N 1090W 55 0 TS
EP 01 2011060712 03 OFCL 168 180N 1110W 35 0 TS
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11222
Ah, first TD of the season.

Weather here is strange. Was 80 degrees over the weekend and the temperature has dropped completely, it's barely 60. Now, a thunderstorm has just started. Other places have even more of a fall - Aberdeen has gone from 26C over the weekend (79F) to just 10 (50F). Unusual.

Maybe the westerlies have started.
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47. SLU
Soon to be hurricane Adrian

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 11.6N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 11.9N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 12.5N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 13.2N 101.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 14.0N 101.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 15.1N 103.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 15.5N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 16.5N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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