Arizona wildfires spread smoke 1,000 miles; 94L little threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on June 07, 2011

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Smoke from Arizona's third largest fire on record, the massive Wallow fire, has now blown downwind over 1,000 miles to Iowa. The fire, which is 0% contained, is expected to rage full-force for at least three more days due to unfavorable weather. Hot, dry, and windy weather is predicted again today over Eastern Arizona, where NOAA has issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions. A large trough of low pressure is anchored over the Southwest, and several disturbances rippling along this trough will bring strong southwesterly surface winds of 20 - 30 mph, with gusts near 35 mph, through Thursday. Extremely low humidities of 5 - 15% and hot summer temperatures are also expected, creating a dangerous fire weather situation. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for 8 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 12%. During the day yesterday, the fire grew from 300 square miles to 365 square miles, 30% of the size of Rhode Island. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 163-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.5 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Active wildfires and smoke as visualized at 9am EDT June 7, 2011 using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke from the Wallow fire and Horseshoe Two fire in Arizona extended more than 1,000 miles, covering most of the Midwest.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on June 6, 2011. The fire beneath the smoke is outlined in red. A large pyrocumulus cloud spawned by the fire is visible along the Arizona-New Mexico border. Pyrocumulus clouds are produced by the intense heating associated with fires or volcanic eruptions. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards website.

Caribbean disturbance 94L little threat to develop
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean near Jamaica is looking much less organized this morning, but is still capable of bringing heavy rains as it pushes slowly northwards at less than 5 mph. Satellite estimates of rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8pm EDT Monday night run as high as 5 inches for northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras, with 2 - 4 inches falling over portions of Jamaica and southeast Cuba. Satellite loops show a decrease in the heavy thunderstorm activity and organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are very poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 100 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman Island. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean is quite moist, and water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm. Wind shear has edged into the high range, 20 - 25 knots, which has probably contributed to 94L's deterioration.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. The storm is moving slowly to the north, into a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots that lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The SHIPS model predicts shear will rise above 30 knots by late tonight, which will make development into a tropical depression difficult. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. The 00Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week, but this is looking increasingly unlikely. At 8am EDT today, NHC gave 94L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Thursday. These rains will probably spread northwards into the Bahama Islands, and possibly South Florida, by Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs (colosprgs)
Past several days Pikes Peak and foothills covered in smoke. Photo taken at 3:30pm.
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs
Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire

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Here in SWFL they are already talking about canceling the 4th of July fireworks if we don't get rain soon. And if we don't get rain soon, there will be the "uninformed" idiots that will still have the home fireworks that will pose a real problem for the brush fires.
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NO more rain for N CA plzs i want summer a real summer
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i want 100s
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
It just simply won't rain in Eastern Hillsborough County onwards will it?


Because we hat lots oh high clouds, it makes lots of sense.
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i want the heat plzs
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94L is a Poofer bust RIP
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It just simply won't rain in Eastern Hillsborough County onwards will it?
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Contrary to what many might be thinking 94L is still alive, should be bumped to 20-30% at 8pm, knowing my assumptions though it will probably be near 0%. Usually this time of day convection is on the wane, now its maintaining convection or even waxing!


Any idea why the floaters are showing it as a HIGH when you click on the fronts box?
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Its a joke. Everything is either going to NOLA or "he who shall not be named's" place in Miami per some posters. Guy was making fun of that.


Sounds like a quote for the Harry Potter Movies
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Contrary to what many might be thinking 94L is still alive, should be bumped to 20-30% at 8pm, knowing my assumptions though it will probably be near 0%. Usually this time of day convection is on the wane, now its maintaining convection or even waxing!
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i want my heat wave plzs send me one
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Quoting NRAamy:
someone on here posted that 94L was going to hit New Orleans.... is that even possible?
Its a joke. Everything is either going to NOLA or "he who shall not be named's" place in Miami per some posters. Guy was making fun of that.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
Quoting Jedkins01:
I can tell by the way the weather patterns are begging to line up, that Florida's wet season will be getting kicked off this week. The computer models agree, but due their disagreement of exactly when and what happens, as well as how much is causing forecasters to be conservative. But most likely deep tropical atmosphere will combine with continued cooling aloft later this week into next week to bring lots of heavy convection.

Of course there is a chance none of this will come together. So don't count on it happening, but the future is starting to look a lot brighter as it stands now, or should I say, wetter!


It'd be nice too if the high pressure moves out and puts an end to the easterly fetch. East winds in NE FL = interior storms = bad news for me.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


If you grow up outdoors all the time like I did you actually get a feel for it. At least I do. Been on a boat, no rain, no thunder or lightning, but I just KNEW. The air felt different. The hazy sky was a little different. Told the guy I was with to pull in the fishing lines. Looked at me like I was crazy (he was from Tennessee). 20 minutes later we were in the middle of a storm in 10 foot swells pulling up to the dock. Glad we weren't still in open water.


Yeah the real problem is people tend to blow off warnings, ironically including warnings that come from their own conscience!

My mom may not know as much about weather as I do, but she knows when severe weather is coming and what to do if it hits and how to react to it even if I'm not there, part of it is that she learns from me, but the other is her own conscience or "gut" as some like to say warns her to be careful and observe what's coming, my dad the same. I guess some people make habits of ignoring that sense to prepare for danger, for reasons I do not know or understand...

and yes I am very much an avid outdoorsman and I grew up staying active outdoors unlike most kids today who just sit and watch tv lol. So, I developed that natural sense for weather which helped my love weather and actual knowledge of it later on as I got older.
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Quoting NRAamy:
someone on here posted that 94L was going to hit New Orleans.... is that even possible?

That was just a TROLL trying to get someone to fight with him. Did that a few times in as many days. Next time just hit
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Quoting PurpleDrank:


furreal? 94L hitting New Orleans? is this information correct? oh noze!

forget those baby lobsters, yall down in NO better get your Tussin and sprite together before its to late
JaMarcus Russell messed with that stuff and look at him now
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
I'm thinking maybe I shouldn't have the show lightning box checked...... :|


Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
326. jeffs713 9:12 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
321 & 324.

Kids, this is why drugs are bad for you.



that's what I keep sayin'.....
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Quoting NRAamy:
someone on here posted that 94L was going to hit New Orleans.... is that even possible?
Impossible! A deep ridge of high pressure is shielding NOLA. It may persist as it did in 2009.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting Jedkins01:


I am amazed at the general public's ignorance of common weather knowledge.

Ive been out playing sports many times during the wet season, and a powerful storm will blow in, and everyone else just continues playing in the game after I take cover, seemingly oblivious, then suddenly everyone panics when torrential rains and 50 mph winds sweep in with lighting bolts crashing all over the place. It happens every time. It seems most people have little awareness of
their surroundings for whatever reason.


If you grow up outdoors all the time like I did you actually get a feel for it. At least I do. Been on a boat, no rain, no thunder or lightning, but I just KNEW. The air felt different. The hazy sky was a little different. Told the guy I was with to pull in the fishing lines. Looked at me like I was crazy (he was from Tennessee). 20 minutes later we were in the middle of a storm in 10 foot swells pulling up to the dock. Glad we weren't still in open water.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
321 & 324.

Kids, this is why drugs are bad for you.
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yall down in NO better get your Tussin and sprite together before its to late



??????
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I can tell by the way the weather patterns are begging to line up, that Florida's wet season will be getting kicked off this week. The computer models agree, but due their disagreement of exactly when and what happens, as well as how much is causing forecasters to be conservative. But most likely deep tropical atmosphere will combine with continued cooling aloft later this week into next week to bring lots of heavy convection.

Of course there is a chance none of this will come together. So don't count on it happening, but the future is starting to look a lot brighter as it stands now, or should I say, wetter!
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Most of the models take 94L toward eastern Cuba through the Bahama's.
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we just reached 100 with humidex

Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday 7 June 2011
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.81 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 10 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 83.8°F
Dewpoint: 71.2°F
Humidity: 66 %
Wind: W 14 mph
Humidex: 100
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wow only a few hundred posts we were well over 1500 this time yesterday. IMO this blog might be this way for the rest of the month.....
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its a little warm today and warmer for tomorrow

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 4:00 PM EDT Tuesday 7 June 2011
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.82 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 10 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 83.1°F
Dewpoint: 69.8°F
Humidity: 64 %
Wind: WSW 7 gust 19 mph
Humidex: 98


Is the humidex comparable to the heat index in the states? 85 here, 73 degree dewpoint, 93 heat index.
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Quoting StAugustineFL:


Interesting. Early in the video a few folks are walking around like it's a day in the park. There must've been something visible. The person in the SUV noticed when he/she darted forward at the last second.


I am amazed at the general public's ignorance of common weather knowledge.

Ive been out playing sports many times during the wet season, and a powerful storm will blow in, and everyone else just continues playing in the game after I take cover, seemingly oblivious, then suddenly everyone panics when torrential rains and 50 mph winds sweep in with lighting bolts crashing all over the place. It happens every time. It seems most people have little awareness of
their surroundings for whatever reason.
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WOCN11 CWTO 071927
Humidex advisory
Updated by Environment Canada at 3:27 PM EDT Tuesday 7 June 2011.

Humidex advisory issued for..
York - Durham.

Humidex advisory continued for..
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin.

Humidex advisory ended for..
Grey - Bruce.

==discussion==
This is an advisory that maximum humidex values of 40 or higher are
forecast for this afternoon over Southwestern Ontario and over most
of Southern Ontario Wednesday afternoon.

Hot and humid air over Southwestern Ontario this afternoon will
continue to flood over all of Southern Ontario tonight and Wednesday
morning in a brisk west to southwesterly flow.

Except for areas down wind from the Great Lakes, daytime high
temperatures Wednesday afternoon are expected to peak above the
thirty degree mark over all of Southern Ontario with humidex values
near or higher than 40.

A cold front sweeping through Southern Ontario Wednesday night will
bring cooler temperatures for Thursday.

END/OSPC


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its a little warm today and warmer for tomorrow

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 4:00 PM EDT Tuesday 7 June 2011
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.82 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 10 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 83.1°F
Dewpoint: 69.8°F
Humidity: 64 %
Wind: WSW 7 gust 19 mph
Humidex: 98
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someone on here posted that 94L was going to hit New Orleans.... is that even possible?
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Please hold on to some rain 94L, plhhheeeeseee.

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Quoting RitaEvac:
If you have Crape Myrtles in your yard, then your ok, because you can water. It's the ones that are planted on their own that are literally dying from lack of rain


and thats why they plant crape myrtles on medians and places that arent irrigated cause they are usually the only thing that will take extreme drought so if they are dying it means anything will. its raining here in nw fla! yay
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Quoting StAugustineFL:


Interesting. Early in the video a few folks are walking around like it's a day in the park. There must've been something visible. The person in the SUV noticed when he/she darted forward at the last second.


Saw them too. When they rounded the corner they picked their pace up and just before they went off screen they were hoofing it pretty quick.
Good move for the driver. Might have flipped if he had stayed, what with the higher profile and only one (moving) car to block some of the wind.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting hurricanejunky:


You know things are slow when we're calling naked swirls interesting...LOL!

Hey Paul! How's it going this morning?
....hey buddy,roasting here in srq,need rain soon!!!
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Well, missed me again, but a lot of farms in this area and it's been at it for about an hour. Good for them. My yard can wait.

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's yesterday's news at this point, I guess, but here's a security camera video of the Massachusetts tornado. Not great quality, but it tells a great story.:



Interesting. Early in the video a few folks are walking around like it's a day in the park. There must've been something visible. The person in the SUV noticed when he/she darted forward at the last second.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


I am certain that is the likely outcome of this 6-day nameless drought we have seen.
you mean we could look like the Sahara? Going to buy a high mileage 2011 Camel XL.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Jim Cantore tweet

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 102 @ MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AS OF 220 PM CDT TODAY THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 2004
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
If you have Crape Myrtles in your yard, then your ok, because you can water. It's the ones that are planted on their own that are literally dying from lack of rain
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One would think Tropical Depression 91E would begin to build itself a nice CDO soon. Only the southeastern side of the storm looks inhibited and that appears to be changing as low level clouds thicken in the area. Some strong convection is firing just to the west of the coc and I would not be surprised to see her take advantage of DMAX tonight.
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Quoting RitaEvac:



Crapemyrtles here in SE TX along the coast are dying! turning brown, I've never seen those do that...

Mine look OK. I do use Miracle Grow however.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's yesterday's news at this point, I guess, but here's a security camera video of the Massachusetts tornado. Not great quality, but it tells a great story.:

i bet the person in the van crapped there pants just as it moved in a big piece of debri hit that van then all hell broke loose
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Quoting DestinJeff:


curtains, KMan? nice.
Shower curtains?
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
hi
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isnt there something about how tropical systems can have better development if they are forming under a "high pressure" system?
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Quoting Levi32:
After the rainfall from 94L clears out in a few days, it will be waiting time again for another 10-15 days before we will probably have another shot at possible development, again in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico. This is favored not only climatologically, but by the MJO pattern that should be in place by June 20th. Also working for us is the fact that the central Atlantic TUTT starts developing during these middle two weeks of June, and can help set up the kind of upper-level anticyclones that can incubate monsoonal-type development. 94L did not have this kind of incubator.


So basically, whatever tries to develop will have a much better chance that 94L did, right?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32056

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.