Arizona wildfires spread smoke 1,000 miles; 94L little threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on June 07, 2011

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Smoke from Arizona's third largest fire on record, the massive Wallow fire, has now blown downwind over 1,000 miles to Iowa. The fire, which is 0% contained, is expected to rage full-force for at least three more days due to unfavorable weather. Hot, dry, and windy weather is predicted again today over Eastern Arizona, where NOAA has issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions. A large trough of low pressure is anchored over the Southwest, and several disturbances rippling along this trough will bring strong southwesterly surface winds of 20 - 30 mph, with gusts near 35 mph, through Thursday. Extremely low humidities of 5 - 15% and hot summer temperatures are also expected, creating a dangerous fire weather situation. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for 8 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 12%. During the day yesterday, the fire grew from 300 square miles to 365 square miles, 30% of the size of Rhode Island. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 163-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.5 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Active wildfires and smoke as visualized at 9am EDT June 7, 2011 using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke from the Wallow fire and Horseshoe Two fire in Arizona extended more than 1,000 miles, covering most of the Midwest.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on June 6, 2011. The fire beneath the smoke is outlined in red. A large pyrocumulus cloud spawned by the fire is visible along the Arizona-New Mexico border. Pyrocumulus clouds are produced by the intense heating associated with fires or volcanic eruptions. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards website.

Caribbean disturbance 94L little threat to develop
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean near Jamaica is looking much less organized this morning, but is still capable of bringing heavy rains as it pushes slowly northwards at less than 5 mph. Satellite estimates of rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8pm EDT Monday night run as high as 5 inches for northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras, with 2 - 4 inches falling over portions of Jamaica and southeast Cuba. Satellite loops show a decrease in the heavy thunderstorm activity and organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are very poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 100 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman Island. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean is quite moist, and water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm. Wind shear has edged into the high range, 20 - 25 knots, which has probably contributed to 94L's deterioration.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. The storm is moving slowly to the north, into a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots that lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The SHIPS model predicts shear will rise above 30 knots by late tonight, which will make development into a tropical depression difficult. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. The 00Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week, but this is looking increasingly unlikely. At 8am EDT today, NHC gave 94L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Thursday. These rains will probably spread northwards into the Bahama Islands, and possibly South Florida, by Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs (colosprgs)
Past several days Pikes Peak and foothills covered in smoke. Photo taken at 3:30pm.
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs
Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
Wallow Fire

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497. washingtonian115
11:46 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Our local MET in West Palm tonight that the heaviest rain most likely will stay offshore and the invest will only increase our daily rain chances to scattered (30%). Still hoping for a miracle though.
Like I said the only way you all can possibly make up this rain is by a tropical cyclone
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16787
496. cg2916
11:45 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
That area over Puerto Rico got sheared to death. Poor guy actually had some nice convection.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
495. txjac
11:45 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Here's to hoping and dancing the SE Florida gets some much needed rain ...it's too beautiful to let it dry up
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2494
494. CyclonicVoyage
11:45 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
Aussie- that seems so simple. No outfit, no certain time of day, and any silly chant will do? No stomping of feet or waving of arms?


I want pictures of that, lol.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
493. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:45 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
The NWS Space Weather Prediction Center has indicated that a dramatic eruption from an otherwise unimpressive solar region earlier today is expected to cause G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) levels of geomagnetic storm activity tomorrow, June 8, beginning around 1800 UTC (2:00 p.m. EDT), with the passage of a fast coronal mass ejection. No significant impacts have been reported to NWS at this time. Updates on impacts resulting from the impending geomagnetic storm will be provided by SWPC as information becomes available.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
492. CyclonicVoyage
11:44 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


But its online, so wouldn't you have to be quick with your hand? ;)



Well, alllllll riiiighty then, lol...
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
491. PcolaDan
11:44 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What is the rain deficit there?


April
Month to date precipitation 0.76 3.89
Year to date precipitation 14.67 20.31

May
Month to date precipitation 2.65 4.40
Year to date precipitation 17.32 24.71

June
Month to date precipitation 0.00 1.29
Year to date precipitation 17.32 26.00



Average Rates
Month Precipitation
Jan 5.34in.
Feb 4.68in.
Mar 6.40in.
Apr 3.89in.
May 4.40in.
Jun 6.39in.
Jul 8.02in.
Aug 6.85in.
Sept 5.75in.
Oct 4.13in.
Nov 4.46in.
Dec 3.97in.

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
490. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:43 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting tazzer06:



18 inches short here!


Wow...That makes our 8 inch deficit here in SE NC look like nothing!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
489. aquak9
11:43 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Aussie- that seems so simple. No outfit, no certain time of day, and any silly chant will do? No stomping of feet or waving of arms?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25845
488. tazzer06
11:43 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What is the rain deficit there?



18 inches short here!
Member Since: May 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
487. CyclonicVoyage
11:42 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well even though I don't live in Florida and I should be getting high chances of rain unlike you all 94L will be a good source if it comes close.


Our local MET in West Palm tonight said that the heaviest rain most likely will stay offshore and the invest will only increase our daily rain chances to scattered (30%). Still hoping for a miracle though.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
482. txjac
11:38 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

People will have to adapt or they will cease to exists.


I was thinking the same thing. I think that we are going to see many deaths due to heat. I know that we have cooling centers set up here in Houston especially for the old folks and homeless. My AC is running full time and it cant keep up in the afternoon.
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2494
481. washingtonian115
11:38 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


well, ya missed it by now anyway. Gotta be quick on your feet with this one.
Well even though I don't live in Florida and I should be getting high chances of rain unlike you all 94L will be a good source if it comes close.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16787
480. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:37 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
10% still on 94L
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
479. j2008
11:37 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

How To A Rain Dance

1. Never do a rain dance on a hill.
2. Make sure you have a lot of room so you
don't run into anything.
3. Spin around in clockwise circles.
4. Make up your own rain chant. It should be rythmical
and easy to say fast.
5. Yell your rain chant while spinning around in circles.
6. If you are trying to get rid of rain, spin in
counterclockwise circles and say your chant backwards.

Complicated.......
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
477. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:37 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


well, ya missed it by now anyway. Gotta be quick on your feet with this one.


But its online, so wouldn't you have to be quick with your hand? ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
475. AussieStorm
11:36 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
I don't care if it's Arlene, Darlene, Charlene, or Marlene! Just send them with some rain!

(how do I do a rain dance?)

How To A Rain Dance

1. Never do a rain dance on a hill.
2. Make sure you have a lot of room so you
don't run into anything.
3. Spin around in clockwise circles.
4. Make up your own rain chant. It should be rythmical
and easy to say fast.
5. Yell your rain chant while spinning around in circles.
6. If you are trying to get rid of rain, spin in
counterclockwise circles and say your chant backwards.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
474. PcolaDan
11:35 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting WaterWitch11:
"sufferings from illusions" sounds like a nice place to be...........

the sun decided to come out here in n. cali, good thing too cause my garden was starting to get upset.



That's a past life. ;>)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
473. IKE
11:35 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ITS PROSPECTS FOR
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
472. CyclonicVoyage
11:35 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting DestinJeff:


do I even need to?


well, ya missed it by now anyway. Gotta be quick on your feet with this one.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
471. IKE
11:35 PM GMT on June 07, 2011

Quoting PcolaDan:


NONE of the storms the past few days have come over me. Still at .00000000000 inches. :(
:(
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
470. IKE
11:34 PM GMT on June 07, 2011

Quoting DestinJeff:


man the lightning in even these little storms is nuts.
Crestview was getting a heavy thunderstorm this afternoon.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
469. AussieStorm
11:34 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just doing a little future forecast type thing....

As we enter the end of the month, the MJO (Which is about to enter the downward phase) is going to come across our basin in an upward phase. This should help get thunderstorms going across the basin like currently. Additionally, shear should not be high like it is now across most of the Atlantic. Lastly, the Caribbean is going to be climatically favored for development.

Overall, there will be a much better chance for development in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico than what 93L and 94L experienced. This is when I believe we will see Arlene.


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
468. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:34 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan:


NONE of the storms the past few days have come over me. Still at .00000000000 inches. :(


What is the rain deficit there?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
467. aquak9
11:34 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
I don't care if it's Arlene, Darlene, Charlene, or Marlene! Just send them with some rain!

(how do I do a rain dance?)
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25845
466. washingtonian115
11:34 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting DestinJeff:


do I even need to?
No.Buuuut it will be interesting to see if that anticyclone helps 94L.Even though I highley doubt it.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16787
465. CyclonicVoyage
11:33 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's not likely. With this being a Neutral, we should see more storms form in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and even off the East Coast. There should not be as many Cape Verde storms as last year, probably only 3-5 or so.



Western MDR is a hot bed during neutral years as well, 40W and beyond when it reaches the western periphery of the typically strong Azores High.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
464. PcolaDan
11:33 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting IKE:

None here. Missed me again.


NONE of the storms the past few days have come over me. Still at .00000000000 inches. :(
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
462. AussieStorm
11:32 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
Aussie, things are just so different than when I was little. I believe we are entering uncharted territory. And I doubt that most Americans will be as adaptable as we need to be.

People will have to adapt or they will cease to exists.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
461. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:31 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Just doing a little future forecast type thing....

As we enter the end of the month, the MJO (Which is about to enter the downward phase) is going to come across our basin in an upward phase. This should help get thunderstorms going across the basin like currently. Additionally, shear should not be high like it is now across most of the Atlantic. Lastly, the Caribbean is going to be climatically favored for development.

Overall, there will be a much better chance for development in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico than what 93L and 94L experienced. This is when I believe we will see Arlene.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
460. j2008
11:31 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's not likely. With this being a Neutral, we should see more storms form in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and even off the East Coast. There should not be as many Cape Verde storms as last year, probably only 3-5 or so.

Thanks everyone.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
459. IKE
11:30 PM GMT on June 07, 2011

Quoting DestinJeff:


just had a thundershower down here, Ike. basking in the glory of a tenth of an inch!
None here. Missed me again.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
458. AussieStorm
11:30 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's not likely. With this being a Neutral, we should see more storms form in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and even off the East Coast. There should not be as many Cape Verde storms as last year, probably only 3-5 or so.

am not so sure about that. The only difference between this year and last year is La Nina has moved you neutral. Don't forget, the atmosphere lags behind the cooling water conditions by about 3 months. Meaning the atmosphere will stay warm for 3 months after the SST's have cooled.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
457. aquak9
11:30 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Aussie, things are just so different than when I was little. I believe we are entering uncharted territory. And I doubt that most Americans will be as adaptable as we need to be.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25845
456. washingtonian115
11:30 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




Okay thanks.Nasty situation setting up.Hopefully not many storms can make some use of those.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16787
454. IKE
11:27 PM GMT on June 07, 2011

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
452. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:26 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting j2008:
Do you all think were going to get a string of Cape Verde Storms this year like we had last year?


It's not likely. With this being a Neutral, we should see more storms form in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and even off the East Coast. There should not be as many Cape Verde storms as last year, probably only 3-5 or so.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
451. AussieStorm
11:25 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
East Coast warned of heatwave as historic temperatures hit US

PARTS of the east coast were put on alert today for a heatwave as unseasonably high temperatures began sweeping the US.

Temperatures were expected to soar up to 20 degrees above average in the northeast and could break records by midweek.

The National Weather Service issued an excessive heat warning from noon today (local time) until 8pm tomorrow for much of southeastern Pennsylvania, northern Delaware and west central New Jersey, including the cities of Trenton, Philadelphia, Camden and Wilmington.

Today's temperature in Philadelphia is expected to reach 96F (35.5C) - one degree above the city's record set for June 8 in 2008 - while tomorrow's projected high was 98F, which would tie the 1933 record.

Less severe heat advisories were issued for other areas, including New York City, and a few severe thunderstorms could be expected to erupt across northern New York State and New England as the heat rolls in.

Meanwhile, parts of the Midwest from Minnesota to Kentucky were already experiencing historic high temperatures.

Minneapolis today had a high of at least 102F - marking the hottest day since July 15, 1988, and the second-earliest 100F reading in the city since 1872, according to The Weather Channel.

Temperatures in Milwaukee had reached 97F by the afternoon, topping the previous record for June 7, set in 1933 at 95F, The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported.

In Lexington, Kentucky - where normal temperatures for this time of year are in the low 80s - residents could see the city's record of 95F be tied or broken this week, the Herald-Leader said.

In Cincinnati temperatures swelled into the 90s and the city's health commissioner, Noble Maseru, declared a heat emergency.

The National Weather Service warned that hot temperatures combined with high humidity could put residents in danger of heat stroke and heat exhaustion. It advised people in affected areas to wear light and loose fitting clothing and to drink as much water as possible.

(this must be bad if it's making news here.)
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Hurry, look fast, the center of 94L is covered for the first time ever. Granted, it's moving rather quickly to the ENE but, it's covered darnit.



Thats what I was thinking. Well it's covered........not for long now that the shear has taken control.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
ok, now I've washed my car and posted an ON-TOPIC, BLOG-RELATED post. I ordered a set of bongos from EBay, too.

What else can I do to get it to rain here?

Learn to do the rain dance the Native Americans did.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Hurry, look fast, the center of 94L is covered for the first time ever. Granted, it's moving rather quickly to the ENE but, it's covered darnit.

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting washingtonian115:
Can someone post the TCHP for today,and the SST chart.And please don't let it be from wunderground...




Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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