Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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1832. tropicfreak
5:49 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting srada:
a More eastern component..hot gulf stream might aid in development if a east coast storm



Hopefully, we could use the rain here in VA.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1831. TxGrandma
2:43 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
RitaEvac, wondering if you're in the same rain-free hole we're in -- Seabrook, east side of 146. I've recorded less than 1/2" of rain since January. :(
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
1829. CJ5
1:51 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:
evere time you guys post the chart am reporting you for spam its geting annyoing that you have too post it evere time you make a post or funny post bout some in


I have to agree. It has become quite sophomoric at this point.
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
1828. cg2916
1:51 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
1827. Vincent4989
1:51 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, June 7th, with Video

Hey Levi!
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1826. jeffs713
1:51 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:


I figured you got that rain, I was already getting jealous
Nope! Went right around me.
Quoting jpsb:
If it makes you feel better in the past 8 months I've gotten 2" of rain. Bone dry here on Galvestion Bay.
I think you might have actually gotten more than me.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
1825. IKE
1:51 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1824. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:49 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
thunderboomer really wrapping around 91E circulation
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5237
1823. RitaEvac
1:48 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Wiener, Wiener, chicken Diener.... holms
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
1822. RitaEvac
1:48 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting pottery:

Very good thing it did not rain then.
Hole would of filled up.
You would have been in Deep Stuff!


fill er up
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
1821. Levi32
1:47 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, June 7th, with Video
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
1820. NICycloneChaser
1:47 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting cg2916:
Meanwhile in the Eastern Caribbean:



Any chance? Not sure, but it's worth watching once 94L fizzes.


That thing looks better than 94L does at the minute. I wonder is this the thing that the models have been intermittently bringing up north-east out of the Caribbean? Worth watching.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1819. pottery
1:45 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:
Radar had storms to my west,north,east, and south, and I was in a friggin hole

Very good thing it did not rain then.
Hole would of filled up.
You would have been in Deep Stuff!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24653
1818. srada
1:44 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
a More eastern component..hot gulf stream might aid in development if a east coast storm

Member Since: August 17, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 774
1817. RitaEvac
1:43 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Radar had storms to my west,north,east, and south, and I was in a friggin hole
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
1816. aquak9
1:42 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting yesterway:


I feel ya .....


eeeewwww!!!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26286
1815. RitaEvac
1:41 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting jeffs713:
If it makes you feel better, I have received 0.07" in the past 3 days. While 2 miles to my north, they got about 1.2". And 3 miles to my south, about 0.9". But I got less than a tenth.


I figured you got that rain, I was already getting jealous
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
1814. jpsb
1:40 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting jeffs713:
If it makes you feel better, I have received 0.07" in the past 3 days. While 2 miles to my north, they got about 1.2". And 3 miles to my south, about 0.9". But I got less than a tenth.
If it makes you feel better in the past 8 months I've gotten 2" of rain. Bone dry here on Galvestion Bay.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1197
1813. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:40 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting cg2916:
Meanwhile in the Eastern Caribbean:



Any chance? Not sure, but it's worth watching once 94L fizzes.
always a chance, but if it heads anywhere near that trof, buhbye
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5237
1812. cg2916
1:38 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Meanwhile in the Eastern Caribbean:



Any chance? Not sure, but it's worth watching once 94L fizzes.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
1811. fireflymom
1:37 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Our yard finally got over an inch yesterday with quite a bit of marble sized hail, impressive way to water the yard. Very grateful and greedy for more.
Quoting RitaEvac:
While folks around me received welcomed rains, I've received ZEEEEEERRRRRROOOOOO


Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
1810. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:36 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
beautiful here in sooo cal, cooler than normal 70-75 low humidity, time for a trip to disneyland
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5237
1809. CyclonicVoyage
1:36 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting yesterway:


Mother nature? Try Father God.


Always best to leave religion out of the public blog. Mother Nature works just fine.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1808. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:35 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
good morning all. it looks like trof is killing 94L? 91E is looking very very healthy!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5237
1807. pottery
1:34 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


Those blobs look pretty close to you. Are they saying anything locally about heavy rains in your area?

OK. Trinidad 11n 61w.
Nothing startling in the forecasts.
Looking at the situation, those blobs will pass close and likely drop some rain, but the movement should keep them west and north of us.
Looks like Heavy Stuff for the Region though.

What do you guys think?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24653
1806. presslord
1:33 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
North Georgia gatorLink
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1805. lickitysplit
1:33 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Out here in the West its just hot, wind, fire and smoke everywhere. Nuts.
Member Since: May 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
1804. cg2916
1:33 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
I don't normally RIP stuff, but I think it's time.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
1803. Orcasystems
1:29 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1802. blsealevel
1:28 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1801. yesterway
1:28 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting jeffs713:
If it makes you feel better, I have received 0.07" in the past 3 days. While 2 miles to my north, they got about 1.2". And 3 miles to my south, about 0.9". But I got less than a tenth.


I feel ya .....
Member Since: October 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
1800. jeffs713
1:26 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:
While folks around me received welcomed rains, I've received ZEEEEEERRRRRROOOOOO

If it makes you feel better, I have received 0.07" in the past 3 days. While 2 miles to my north, they got about 1.2". And 3 miles to my south, about 0.9". But I got less than a tenth.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
1799. pottery
1:23 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


Those blobs look pretty close to you. Are they saying anything locally about heavy rains in your area?

Will need to check that...
When I looked at the set-up earlier this morning, I assumed it was all going to swirl around west of me.
Will go back and check it all again.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24653
1798. hydrus
1:20 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Link
Quoting Vincent4989:

What's a band?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21765
1797. hydrus
1:19 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
<
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21765
1796. yesterway
1:19 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I tell ya man. The ocean is coming in hard every year, increasing drought frequency. Every year they dump millions of dollars worth of sand on the beach to keep the ocean at bay. Mother Nature is going to win one of these days.


Mother nature? Try Father God.
Member Since: October 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
1795. RitaEvac
1:18 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
While folks around me received welcomed rains, I've received ZEEEEEERRRRRROOOOOO

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
1794. Grothar
1:12 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting Chicklit:


Link TAFB Forecasts and Analyses


Hey, Chicklit. I've been on that site hundreds of times and never saw that link. Looks like we might get a little rain out of it anyway. Here's hoping.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26891
1793. galvestonhurricane
1:12 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 541
1792. biff4ugo
1:11 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
1752
We got some welcome rain up in Gainesville FL yesterday, but it came with wind that knocked out my power and hefty lightning. For some reason the lightning did not show up on the wunder map, but was rumbeling for an hour or two.

Why doesn't the fire east of Crescent Lake have a name yet? It is big and has been on the map for at least 3 days.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1591
1791. CyclonicVoyage
1:11 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting pottery:

Just one small step from being the "Deserted Southeast".
Might not be a bad thing...


I tell ya man. The ocean is coming in hard every year, increasing drought frequency. Every year they dump millions of dollars worth of sand on the beach to keep the ocean at bay. Mother Nature is going to win one of these days.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1790. Vincent4989
1:11 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting DestinJeff:


be careful not to spam admin's box with those reports.

you don't want to earn a band.

What's a band?
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1789. miguel617
1:11 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Member Since: January 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
1788. CyclonicVoyage
1:09 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
94L finally ditched that surface trough and is a single entity now, enter shear, lol. I was amazed last night looking at 94L, dual mid-level vort maxes, surface trough to Jamaica, it's no wonder it didn't pull it together.

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1787. Tazmanian
1:08 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
94L went POOF overe night
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
1786. Grothar
1:08 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting pottery:

Yep. Thanks for that.
It's pretty...


Those blobs look pretty close to you. Are they saying anything locally about heavy rains in your area?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26891
1785. hydrus
1:08 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Not Worthy, I am Not Worthy.
You are more than worthy..You own a 12 string..:)..Moisture for Florida..in 5 days.?/
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21765
1784. Grothar
1:05 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I was also thinking that being called the "Desert Southeast" would be nice too.


At this point, it is not far from the truth.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26891
1783. pottery
1:05 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I was also thinking that being called the "Desert Southeast" would be nice too.

Just one small step from being the "Deserted Southeast".
Might not be a bad thing...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24653
1782. hydrus
1:05 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Quoting pottery:

Beer will do that.
Especially the German brew..It is shear power in a VERY large mug.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21765

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.