Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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1432. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

Yes. I'm afraid it's over.
I met someone....


LOLLOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
Quoting alfabob:

95L may not be far off either, W winds now being reported at central/northern Jamaica Link. Will be interesting if it is able to keep wrapping winds around until 94L's circulation is completely gone.


We have 95L??
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1430. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6 days into it and i bet there is a lot of this

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1429. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
As soon as it ramps up and gets us all excited....it will turn into a weiner again and dissapoint us one more time.


It happens
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
Parramatta, Sydney, Australia
Now
56.1°F rising(but not rising fast enough)
Sky Conditions: Clear
Updated at 12:30 EST
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Quoting Patrap:
Andrew Higgins: The American Noah
My mom was a "looker" back in the day and at 17 worked for one of his managers. He didn't care that she couldn't type. He told her to always have a folder in her hand while walking around and if Mr. Higgens came into the office start filing. LOL
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1425. pottery
Quoting midgulfmom:
Just checking in...hahahaha..you guys are on fire tonight! I just had a soft shell crab platter night before last...OOO SOOO GOOD! Love crabs..hence my profile pic. 94L is an emotional roller coaster ride! Do you really think it's over by tonight/tomorrow?

Yes. I'm afraid it's over.
I met someone....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24929
Well, 94L can't make up its mind.
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Quoting Skyepony:
The Anshas nuclear reactor, located on the outskirts of Cairo, has leaked ten cubic meters of radioactive water for the second time in a year, according to Samer Mekheimar, the former director of the Nuclear Research Center’s atomic reactions department. Mekheimar submitted a note to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, saying the leakage took place on 25 May as a result of operating the reactor without taking into account safety precautions. He also said the Atomic Energy Agency kept the incident secret and threatened to fire the staff if they talked about it. “The fact that the reactor was by mere chance not operated the next day saved the area from environmental disaster,” he wrote. “All ministries were changed after the revolution, except the Ministry of Electricity and Energy,” he added. “It still kept the same minister and his deputies from the dissolved ruling party.” Meanwhile, sources at the Nuclear Safety Authority said they were denied entry to the reactor to conduct an inspection. Director of the Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed al-Kolaly, said that levels of radiation inside the reactor are normal, and that the International Atomic Energy Agency has praised the reactor.


"Wow" these folks dont watch tv much
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Storm beginning to gain convection again




where?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1420. Grothar
OK,we all know that when storms move from land to the ocean, they can actually interfere with a developing system. We know there is a ULL in the Gulf which has been inhibiting the development of 94L. However, if you look at the present location of the low and look at the tremendous amount of moisture that is moving off of Honduras and Nicaragua, it may actually assist in pumping convectin back into 94L. Now, I am not saying we are going to have a big storm. However, it could be something that has been considered by those who know. We will have to watch this tonight and see if indeed the moisture from the SW will aid or hinder the system.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
Just checking in...hahahaha..you guys are on fire tonight! I just had a soft shell crab platter night before last...OOO SOOO GOOD! Love crabs..hence my profile pic. 94L is an emotional roller coaster ride! Do you really think it's over by tonight/tomorrow?
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1418. Patrap
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1417. txjac
Post 1402 sure is pretty
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1416. MTWX
Quoting MTWX:

the one following 90 into billings is tornado warned!
Link
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1415. Patrap
Andrew Higgins: The American Noah
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1414. MTWX
Quoting Walshy:
This is bad in Montana standards...

the one following 90 into billings is tornado warned!
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1413. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.A.
XX/91E/XX
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Soo at this time it looks like Invest 94L is not planning to be Arlene or even TD-1...but who knows, maybe 95L would be the one.
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1411. scott39
Quoting Grothar:
I don't think 94L is as dead as one would have us believe. Looks like a slight ramping up.

As soon as it ramps up and gets us all excited....it will turn into a weiner again and dissapoint us one more time.
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Quoting Inactivity:

Has abou 16-24 hours to reach TD status, which is possible if D-Max works out well with the system.When does D-min fade away and D-Max just start to come?


Dmax is the hour before dawn. The loops show all of the convection heading off to the NE very quickly. I don't think even a blow up around Dmax will help as tomorrow will see increasing shear and drier air invade the NW Caribbean.
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1409. MTWX
With the conversations that go on here, I say we should have an annual Dr. Masters Blog reunion!!! I think it would be a really fun time!
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Storm beginning to gain convection again
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Quoting Grothar:


No, Monday nights is the Golden Girls marathon night and we can stay up late. Besides, we need the rain so badly here in Florida that I just hope it drops a little on us.
Enjoy the "girls" and I hope you get your wish.
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1406. Walshy
This is bad in Montana standards...
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Quoting kmanislander:


It requires contrarian thinking but public service education on this would save a lot of people heartache


We have this same problem along the north Gulf Coast. Hurricane Dennis did severe damage on the north side of the island. Caught many unaware because we were on the "calm" side of the storm. Many homes that survived Ivan got destroyed by the surge from Dennis out of Escambia Bay, a "protected" body of water.
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1404. Patrap
.."able to Leap tall Invest with a single Bun"..!

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1403. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1402. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
<
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1401. Grothar
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
In past years Ike was called a downcaster and now it seems to me that you are the resident upcaster. Isn't it past your bedtime old man ?


No, Monday nights is the Golden Girls marathon night and we can stay up late. Besides, we need the rain so badly here in Florida that I just hope it drops a little on us.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
1400. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting txjac:



Nice ....Not!

Countries that use nuclear power should upgrade equipment. Infrastructure seems to be falling apart a lot lately


It's been a bad day for it. There was environmental pollution in the UK from Radioactive water leaking from a sub & a reactor in eastern Pennsylvania keeps shutting down unexpectedly.
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1399. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:


That has to be the funniest one all night. I get one of those a week.



Reminds me that I have to take my Pravastatin now.


Cuz of all the Fried soft shell po-boys from my past.

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Quoting Grothar:
I don't think 94L is as dead as one would have us believe. Looks like a slight ramping up.



Dry air and shear marching East quickly from the Yucatan.It is probably over for 94L
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1397. xcool
i wait for 95L NEXT .94L DOOM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Has about 16-24 hours to reach TD status, which is possible if D-Max works out well with the system.When does D-min fade away and D-Max just start to come?
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1395. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
...Clear!!!







That has to be the funniest one all night. I get one of those a week.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
Quoting Grothar:
I don't think 94L is as dead as one would have us believe. Looks like a slight ramping up.



It's not dead it's raining on me!
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1393. Patrap
Umm,soft shell's..my personal Fav.
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in reading back in the blog I was speaking about GROTHER'S 1926 memories and m hsuband was said his uncle was in Georgia at the time but his family was in Miami. The uncle left GA and got as far as St. Augustine and found the roads closed. So he climbed over the areas necessary and hitched hiked the rest of the way and found his family all ok in Miami. Wow what a hard road. We've been married 28yrs first I heard of this!
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Quoting kmanislander:


It requires contrarian thinking but public service education on this would save a lot of people heartache
We could use some of that down here too. When Ivan was approaching and supposedly passing us to the north my daughter called me from the EOC and said the information being released was downplaying the severity of the situation. That is why I come here for GOOD info.
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1390. Patrap
Thats some big numbers from China skyepony
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I would not be so quick to write off 94L, it looks better than it did last night.


I would hope most are just poking fun. Circulation is evident and pressure is still dropping. Convection can blossom to grand scale in little less than 30min. The circulation is kicking harder than ever tonight.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Cut the crab, please..
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1387. Skyepony (Mod)
Torrential rain caused floods that left at least 14 people missing and forced the evacuation of more than 40,000 in southern China, the government and state media reported on Monday. A flood hit Wangmo county in the south-western province of Guizho on Sunday following several days of heavy rain, leaving 13 people missing as local authorities evacuated 20,000. The flood affected 82,000 people, damaged 300 homes, cut power lines, blocked roads and caused estimated direct economic losses of 35 million yuan (5.4 million dollars), the Ministry of Civil Affairs said on its website. The Wangmo was running 3 metres above its normal level on Sunday but had subsided by Monday, the ministry said. About 47,000 people were affected in other parts of Guizhou, and one more person was missing in Luodian county. Weather forecasters warned of more torrential rain in Hunan, Guizhou and other southern regions over the next three days.
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1386. txjac
Quoting Skyepony:
The Anshas nuclear reactor, located on the outskirts of Cairo, has leaked ten cubic meters of radioactive water for the second time in a year, according to Samer Mekheimar, the former director of the Nuclear Research Center’s atomic reactions department. Mekheimar submitted a note to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, saying the leakage took place on 25 May as a result of operating the reactor without taking into account safety precautions. He also said the Atomic Energy Agency kept the incident secret and threatened to fire the staff if they talked about it. “The fact that the reactor was by mere chance not operated the next day saved the area from environmental disaster,” he wrote. “All ministries were changed after the revolution, except the Ministry of Electricity and Energy,” he added. “It still kept the same minister and his deputies from the dissolved ruling party.” Meanwhile, sources at the Nuclear Safety Authority said they were denied entry to the reactor to conduct an inspection. Director of the Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed al-Kolaly, said that levels of radiation inside the reactor are normal, and that the International Atomic Energy Agency has praised the reactor.



Nice ....Not!

Countries that use nuclear power should upgrade equipment. Infrastructure seems to be falling apart a lot lately
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1385. Grothar
Quoting txjac:



Thats what took me so long ...the picture is right! It's bologna in the pan and the lady is making the four cuts so it doesnt curl up!

Am I the only one that sings the bologna song when they type the work bologna?


I think we all do that. I have been singing the Alka-seltzer song for 45 years now. Some things just stick in you head. (Like that image of presslord)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
1384. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Showers and thunderstorm everywhere...can't be helping the situation.

nothing more but a surge of tropical moisture advancing northward into sw atlantic sub tropical basin
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I would not be so quick to write off 94L, it looks better than it did last night.
It usually ramps us pretty good around 1-2 am.
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Quoting pottery:

Every time we have a close pass to our north we get feeder bands and occasional strong winds from the west and south.
I have NEVER heard our Disaster Preparedness people (or the Met office) advise people that winds will be westerly, and that sea conditions in the Gulf of Paria will be bad .
It is assumed that the storm approaches from the east, so the winds will be easterly.
It is pathetic frankly, because the people who lose boats and get hurt on the west and south coast always say "Wow that was so strange..."


It requires contrarian thinking but public service education on this would save a lot of people heartache
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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