Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

Share this Blog
11
+

There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1482 - 1432

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

I didn't say anything wrong earlier to get my comments removed, I used constructive criticism and sarcasm. If anything most of pressureman's comments were worse than mine, so why not delete his comments.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1481. pottery
OK, Y'all.
I am going to try to get up the stairs.
And if I make it, I'll be asleep soon.
Dont have any fun while I'm not around. And if you see any swirls keep them away from me! I have had it with them swirls!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24461
Quoting listenerVT:
I saw the models diagram for Invest 94 and immediately thought of the Scarecrow from the Wizard of Oz:
"Some people go this way, and some people go that way." Ha!


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1479. Grothar
If there is going to be any burst of convection of any significance, it will have to occur almost due West of Jamaica. The upper atmosphere there is becoming conducive for a small burst of convection in the next few hours (as well as the activity to the SW)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I saw the models diagram for Invest 94 and immediately thought of the Scarecrow from the Wizard of Oz:
"Some people go this way, and some people go that way." Ha!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


actually...they are extra terrestrial mantis creature/human hybrids...


well duh, they lifted her up and moved her 1000 yards because a snake was about to get her. Obviously that happened when she wasn't on drugs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1476. Patrap
actually...they are extra terrestrial mantis creature/human hybrids...

I've seen them here during Mardi Gras,,they tall,but neat and tidy folks
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
Quoting Walshy:
TORNADO ON THE GROUND...HEADED FOR THE CITY OF BILLINGS, MONTANA.

The National Weather Service in Billings has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
east central Stillwater County in south central Montana...
western Yellowstone County in south central Montana...
this includes the city of Billings...
* until 915 PM MDT.
* At 841 PM MDT... local law enforcement reported a tornado 8 miles
northwest of Laurel... or 19 miles northeast of Columbus... moving
east at 25 mph.


Wow, Billings is the biggest and most populous city in Montana!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1473. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Angelic beings?


actually...they are extra terrestrial mantis creature/human hybrids...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting midgulfmom:
Love that show too..


It's always a good laugh, this lady is talking about so many different extraterrestrials are living among us. Obviously.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:




You already look bad kman LOL.


You think ??. An offshore forecast does not the future make.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting presslord:
Coast to Coast AM...if you're not familiar with this show...indulge yourself...you're in for a treatLink
Love that show too..
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
Quoting presslord:
Coast to Coast AM...if you're not familiar with this show...indulge yourself...you're in for a treatLink


Angelic beings?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1467. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.A.
XX/91E/XX
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
P.S.

Message to 94L.

Please do not blow up tonight and make me look bad.

Thanks in advance.

Kman


Quoting stormwatcherCI:


.SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK 1005 MB LOW IS NEAR 18N82W.
THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NNW AROUND 5 KT THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM LOW TO COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH
FRI. BROAD TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N
ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N54W TO 10N60W WILL MOVE
NW AND MERGE WITH THE TROUGH TUE THROUGH WED. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE THEN INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN WED...AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI.


You already look bad kman LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting 7544:


maybe the blob to west of 94l would catch up and connect for dmax
It is coming off shore now.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8399
1464. 7544
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:




where?


maybe the blob to west of 94l would catch up and connect for dmax
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6862
Quoting Grothar:


This is what I have been saying all night. When did this come out?
Just a few minutes ago. This is the 11:30 Offshore Waters Forecast.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8399
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Has the 11pm advisory been issued yet?
Also I've noticed the Models trending towards a landfall in Mexico, they might be looking at a hurricane landfall on the west coast


They won't upgrade anything at 11. 91E needs some convection over the center and then it will become a depression. If you remember in 2005, Adrian (the same name to be used this year) was an early season storm that also made landfall on Western Mexico. Certainly looks like this one could do something similar - only it may be stronger if it does. The 2005 Adrian weakened rapidly from a Cat. 1 hurricane to a tropical depression at landfall but still did drop extreme amounts of rainfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Coast to Coast AM...if you're not familiar with this show...indulge yourself...you're in for a treatLink
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1460. Grothar
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


.SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK 1005 MB LOW IS NEAR 18N82W.
THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NNW AROUND 5 KT THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM LOW TO COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH
FRI. BROAD TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N
ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N54W TO 10N60W WILL MOVE
NW AND MERGE WITH THE TROUGH TUE THROUGH WED. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE THEN INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN WED...AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI.


This is what I have been saying all night. When did this come out?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
P.S.

Message to 94L.

Please do not blow up tonight and make me look bad.

Thanks in advance.

Kman


Defy Him! Defy Him!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Its part of the learning experience. Though some seem to...never learn! Pass me a Kleenex please.


wouldn't you prefer

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1457. Walshy
TORNADO ON THE GROUND...HEADED FOR THE CITY OF BILLINGS, MONTANA.

The National Weather Service in Billings has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
east central Stillwater County in south central Montana...
western Yellowstone County in south central Montana...
this includes the city of Billings...
* until 915 PM MDT.
* At 841 PM MDT... local law enforcement reported a tornado 8 miles
northwest of Laurel... or 19 miles northeast of Columbus... moving
east at 25 mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1456. beell
Approaching Billings, Montana

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1455. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1454. Grothar
Quoting blsealevel:
Grother I think you may be on to something their.





NRL

Link


Well, I'm glad someone is paying attention. Thanks for the link, here, look at this.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Has the 11pm advisory been issued yet?
Also I've noticed the Models trending towards a landfall in Mexico, they might be looking at a hurricane landfall on the west coast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


.SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK 1005 MB LOW IS NEAR 18N82W.
THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NNW AROUND 5 KT THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM LOW TO COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH
FRI. BROAD TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N
ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N54W TO 10N60W WILL MOVE
NW AND MERGE WITH THE TROUGH TUE THROUGH WED. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE THEN INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN WED...AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8399
Quoting Hurricanes101:
that radar out of eastern Cuba is pretty interesting, looks like some nice rotation there


I'm wondering if this is what the models were trying to indicate earlier when they spun another secondary system north of Puerto Rico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1450. pottery
Quoting midgulfmom:
That's typical! ... LOL Good to see you Pottery :)

You too!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24461
Quoting pottery:

Yes. I'm afraid it's over.
I met someone....


I met someone and it's not over LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1448. Grothar
Quoting kmanislander:
Just kidding Gro, about talking to Ike that is LMAO


Oh, you know I can take a good jab. I just like posting and pretending I know what I'm talking about. I guess it was all those years teaching. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
P.S.

Message to 94L.

Please do not blow up tonight and make me look bad.

Thanks in advance.

Kman
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
91E could end up being a significant threat to Mexico:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1445. pottery
Quoting blsealevel:
Grother I think you may be on to something their.





NRL

Link

PLEASE!!
We all need a break, some sleep, etc etc.
When does it Stop?
Half an hour ago it was about to get going East of Jamaica!

I LOVE it, hehehh
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24461
Just kidding Gro, about talking to Ike that is LMAO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
that radar out of eastern Cuba is pretty interesting, looks like some nice rotation there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1442. scott39
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
6 days into it and i bet there is a lot of this

Its part of the learning experience. Though some seem to...never learn! Pass me a Kleenex please.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Have you been talking to IKE?


Not since 10 seconds ago, why ??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1440. Grothar
Quoting kmanislander:


That complex exiting Nicaragua is unlikely to last long or provide any aid to 94L. If anything it will scoot on by to the South of the system and off to the ENE which is the direction of the windflow. 94L does not have enough rotation to pull it in and has not shown any surface convergence all day. In fact the only lower convergence we see is way off below Jamaica in one small area. Nothing anywhere near the surface low position.



Have you been talking to IKE?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Yes. I'm afraid it's over.
I met someone....
That's typical! ... LOL Good to see you Pottery :)
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
1438. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting midgulfmom:
My mom was a "looker" back in the day and at 17 worked for one of his managers. He didn't care that she couldn't type. He told her to always have a folder in her hand while walking around and if Mr. Higgens came into the office start filing. LOL
you know i could have fun with this but i won't
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Grother I think you may be on to something their.





NRL

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No matter what happens... I rip 94L at 5pm Tomorrow.

At that point then I will start to be concerned about future 95L...

LOL ~~
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1434. Patrap
pre-95L lurks in many a mind
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
Quoting Grothar:
OK,we all know that when storms move from land to the ocean, they can actually interfere with a developing system. We know there is a ULL in the Gulf which has been inhibiting the development of 94L. However, if you look at the present location of the low and look at the tremendous amount of moisture that is moving off of Honduras and Nicaragua, it may actually assist in pumping convectin back into 94L. Now, I am not saying we are going to have a big storm. However, it could be something that has been considered by those who know. We will have to watch this tonight and see if indeed the moisture from the SW will aid or hinder the system.


That complex exiting Nicaragua is unlikely to last long or provide any aid to 94L. If anything it will scoot on by to the South of the system and off to the ENE which is the direction of the windflow. 94L does not have enough rotation to pull it in and has not shown any surface convergence all day. In fact the only lower convergence we see is way off below Jamaica in one small area. Nothing anywhere near the surface low position.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1432. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

Yes. I'm afraid it's over.
I met someone....


LOLLOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1482 - 1432

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
61 °F
Scattered Clouds