Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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1532. Skyepony (Mod)
Described as a barber pole storm structure.
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1531. Grothar
Quoting kingdomusa:
Major Flash flooding in Port-au-Prince. Many roads closed. Homes washed away. People washed away. Landslides expected. Please Pray.


Do you have family there?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26889
1530. Skyepony (Mod)
Looks like they are chasing the one north of the one that went near Billings. One shot looked like one might be on the ground. Now I think they are headed down after the Billings cell. Pulling over to look at the hail.


Quoting kingdomusa:
Major Flash flooding in Port-au-Prince. Many roads closed. Homes washed away. People washed away. Landslides expected. Please Pray.


Been afraid of this all week.
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Major Flash flooding in Port-au-Prince. Many roads closed. Homes washed away. People washed away. Landslides expected. Please Pray.
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* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL YELLOWSTONE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...

* UNTIL 945 PM MDT.

* AT 913 PM MDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BILLINGS HEIGHTS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS
TORNADO HAS PRODUCED DAMAGE 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACTON.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SHEPHERD AND HUNTLEY BY 935 PM MDT...
WORDEN AND BALLANTINE BY 945 PM MDT...

THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF BILLINGS. THIS REPLACES THE
PREVIOUS TORNADO WARNING FOR BILLINGS AND YELLOWSTONE COUNTY.
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1526. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


could very well be what models actually developed and took off to the north and northest


Yep, I mentioned something about that earlier.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Then you may have to leave the blog then come back in.
Yes. You are right.
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Quoting Skyepony:
There is one chaser in front of one of those storms in Montana.


According to Yellowstone County radio a tornado may be headed towards Helena.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You have to click Show All at the top of the comments section where it says Filter .


Then you may have to leave the blog then come back in.
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Well...that's gonna' do it for me tonite.
94L has been good for many laughs here on WU blog today...not so good for tropical cyclone trackers. We're only 6 days into the season! I'm off to walk the stairs to bed carefully as I've been researching Jamaican history and my head is swimming.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5648
1520. Skyepony (Mod)
There is one chaser in front of one of those storms in Montana.
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How about some coverage from TS Arlene in 05.

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Quoting Inactivity:
Why is it that so many posts are hidden and I have to click show, can't I make it that I can see all of them?
You have to click Show All at the top of the comments section where it says Filter .
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1516. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting presslord:



mantis/human hybrids are no laughing matter...my first wife was one...things go along just fine for a while...'til one day...with no warning...they go all mantis on ya and...well...I don't wanna talk about it...
you trying to scare people

on that stupid phone with the little keys
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Quoting presslord:



mantis/human hybrids are no laughing matter...my first wife was one...things go along just fine for a while...'til one day...with no warning...they go all mantis on ya and...well...I don't wanna talk about it...
ROTFL and cryin..hahaha
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
Quoting alfabob:

That's because it is, NHC keeps blaming the convection on 94L even though it hasn't had any. New low has been forming in that area since last night (well now on the north side of Jamaica instead of the south).


could very well be what models actually developed and took off to the north and northest
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1513. aquak9
ain't nuthin' left but a few feathers and a wet spot.

Hmmph.
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1512. Grothar
Quoting blsealevel:
I'm out to folks good night


Nite bl.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26889
yeah, me too.
still among the 'have nots.'
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1509. MTWX
Quoting Inactivity:


Wow, Billings is the biggest and most populous city in Montana!

Also the one that always gets hit!
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Speaking of swirls, anyone else see anything at 80W 17N...

Link
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1507. help4u
Obivious moneymaker for politicions and the elite!!
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Quoting pottery:
OK, Y'all.
I am going to try to get up the stairs.
And if I make it, I'll be asleep soon.
Dont have any fun while I'm not around. And if you see any swirls keep them away from me! I have had it with them swirls!


Will do. ;-)
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Quoting midgulfmom:
AKA politicians...



mantis/human hybrids are no laughing matter...my first wife was one...things go along just fine for a while...'til one day...with no warning...they go all mantis on ya and...well...I don't wanna talk about it...
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1504. 7544
opps make that 94l lol
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


It's always a good laugh, this lady is talking about so many different extraterrestrials are living among us. Obviously.
Very obviously..haha
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
I'm out to folks good night
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1501. Patrap
co2now.org

394.35ppm
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
that loop makes it look like all the convection is rushing over to that area south of eastern Cuba lol
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Why is it that so many posts are hidden and I have to click show, can't I make it that I can see all of them?
Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
1497. 7544
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I am thinking maybe when that convection rolls off and starts building when D-Max hits the LLC being as weak as it is it may want to try to reform or shift there under the convection plus it is under very light steering that is looping around anticlockwise what do you say


yep if it does catch up the 94l we may have something good at dmax to watch as it moves from west to east





Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting presslord:


actually...they are extra terrestrial mantis creature/human hybrids...
AKA politicians...
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
Quoting Chicklit:

just stating the obvious


It isnt that obvious, how do you know the world wont get wetter?
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Quoting pottery:
OK, Y'all.
I am going to try to get up the stairs.
And if I make it, I'll be asleep soon.
Dont have any fun while I'm not around. And if you see any swirls keep them away from me! I have had it with them swirls!


Okay, make sure to check your closet for swirls, not all of them can fit in the north-west Carribean. LOL
Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


really gw talk?


Agreed, that kind of discussion should take place in the GW blog, not in a tropics blog.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


really gw talk?

just stating the obvious
conserve and redistribute.
some look for answers.
others dwell on the problem.
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1491. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It is coming off shore now.




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Quoting Walshy:
TORNADO ON THE GROUND...HEADED FOR THE CITY OF BILLINGS, MONTANA.

The National Weather Service in Billings has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
east central Stillwater County in south central Montana...
western Yellowstone County in south central Montana...
this includes the city of Billings...
* until 915 PM MDT.
* At 841 PM MDT... local law enforcement reported a tornado 8 miles
northwest of Laurel... or 19 miles northeast of Columbus... moving
east at 25 mph.


Police are stationing themselves around Laurel Montana as spotters according to their radio dispatch.

edit: report of funnel cloud out by Columbus
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Quoting Chicklit:
a warming world will be separated into the have's and have nots: those who have water and those who are in drought, with the latter being in the majority.
a warming world is a drying world.


really gw talk?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you know i could have fun with this but i won't
Yes I know.. I hesitated to say but it's funny. Her Dad told her he knew why he hired her and he had better behave or else... LOL thanks!
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
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I'm out for tonight folks. Let's see what we have in the morning.

Good night all
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15882
prediction: a warming world will be separated into the have's and have nots: those who have water and those who are in drought, with the latter being in the majority.
a warming world is a drying world.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
look at 100 west


New one comes out soon, 03Z, not sure when it's posted though.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It is coming off shore now.

I am thinking maybe when that convection rolls off and starts building when D-Max hits the LLC being as weak as it is it may want to try to reform or shift there under the convection plus it is under very light steering that is looping around anticlockwise what do you say
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I didn't say anything wrong earlier to get my comments removed, I used constructive criticism and sarcasm. If anything most of pressureman's comments were worse than mine, so why not delete his comments.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.