Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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1581. Grothar
Quoting TomTaylor:
phew.

By the way, how well would you say the drought during the dust bowl compares to our droughts this year in Texas and Florida?

I was wondering this just the other day and I figured who better to ask than old gro!


Anything you ever want to know, Tom, just ask me.


Excerpt:
On November 11, 1933, a very strong dust storm stripped topsoil from desiccated South Dakota farmlands in just one of a series of bad dust storms that year. Then, beginning on May 9, 1934, a strong two-day dust storm removed massive amounts of Great Plains topsoil in one of the worst such storms of the Dust Bowl. The dust clouds blew all the way to Chicago where dirt fell like snow. Two days later, the same storm reached cities in the east, such as Buffalo, Boston, Cleveland, New York City, and Washington, D.C.[10] That winter (1934–1935), red snow fell on New England.

On April 14, 1935, known as "Black Sunday", twenty of the worst "Black Blizzards" occurred throughout the Dust Bowl, causing extensive damage and turning the day to night; witnesses reported that they could not see five feet in front of them at certain points.

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Quoting alfabob:

That's why I said its going to be a little until a new low and LLC is established because it is competing with the old low to the west. Maybe by tomorrow there will be 95L if it manages to say south of cuba and maintains convection, but as of now I think dmax will help.
hmm, well time will tell. Sorry if I came off kinda harsh btw, no hard feelings.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
I don't see any significant rotation on that radar. Even if it did have rotation, rotation on the radar does not necessarily reflect surface winds. And the surface winds shown by the ascat clearly show there is no surface low


The area NE of Jamaica is a surface trough attached to the low in the NW Caribbean. The main rotation is in the 500MB level, there is no surface low, period.

850mb (Notice the trough attached to 94L)



500mb (Quite Obvious that is the MLC of 94L)



Shear (20-30kts pushing the MLC to the ENE)

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting KoritheMan:
Satellite derived low cloud motions indicate that the surface circulation of Invest 94L is highly broad, with very little evidence of northerly winds along the western periphery.

Ah well, this system had a good run. We'll have more potential for storms in the future, just gotta have patience. At least this storm will bring beneficial rains to Florida, without the risk of damage.


Its no longer even a circulation. Its broken down to an open trough in my opinion.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Quoting alfabob:

That's why I said its going to be a little until a new low and LLC is established because it is competing with the old low to the west. Maybe by tomorrow there will be 95L if it manages to say south of cuba and maintains convection, but as of now I think dmax will help.


You do know that as close as it is to the other low the other would have to die for that one to form. Meaning it would be 94L still because it would just be a relocation of the center. Looking at the 850 and 700 mb vorticity it is stretched into that area.
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1576. Grothar
They were called "Black Blizzards

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Satellite derived low cloud motions indicate that the surface circulation of Invest 94L is highly broad, with very little evidence of northerly winds along the western periphery.

Ah well, this system had a good run. We'll have more potential for storms in the future, just gotta have patience. At least this storm will bring beneficial rains to Florida, without the risk of damage.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20348
1574. Grothar
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1572. Grothar
Quoting TomTaylor:
phew.

By the way, how well would you say the drought during the dust bowl compares to our droughts this year in Texas and Florida?

I was wondering this just the other day and I figured who better to ask than old gro!


Actually, I did a paper on the Dust Bowl of the 30's. It was much worse than this. about 10 years of little or no rain. Probably 10 feet or more of topsoil disappeared from the midwest. There was an old story about a farmer who went to a bank for a loan on his farm. The banker said, "Well, I will have to come out and look at the land". The farmer said to him, "No need to do that, its blowing by right now."


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Quoting Mrsenseofhumor:


94L moister is moving NE, dry weather in south FL to prevail!!!


Not so fast now. Even though its not going to develop further, the moisture from the disturbance will move north overspreading South Florida late this week into the weekend as the ridge over the SE US moves eastward.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Quoting Grothar:


Still here my dear. About to snooze, though


I'm talking about 94L...lol...but I see now others have given up..
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1566. Grothar
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Hey Grothar, am I too late for the farewell party or are we still holding out for a thread?


Still here my dear. About to snooze, though
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1565. JRRP

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1564. xcool
cchsweatherman haha
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
1563. Gearsts
Can someone post the PR radar here? TY
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Come on folks! Grab a drink and join me in singing:

Nah, nah, nah, nah,
Nah, nah, nah, nah,
Hey, hey, hey,
Goodbye Invest 94L.


Nah, nah, nah, nah,
Nah, nah, nah, nah,
Hey, hey, hey,
Goodbye Invest 94L.


Nah, nah, nah, nah,
Nah, nah, nah, nah,
Hey, hey, hey,
Goodbye Invest 94L.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Quoting Grothar:


You secret is safe with me.
phew.

By the way, how well would you say the drought during the dust bowl compares to our droughts this year in Texas and Florida?

I was wondering this just the other day and I figured who better to ask than old gro!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


You secret is safe with me.


Hey Grothar, am I too late for the farewell party or are we still holding out for a thread?
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
j/k it looks dead moving on to 91E


Yep. Looks like that one certainly could threaten Mexico at some point.
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1556. Grothar
Quoting TomTaylor:
in that picture of cutting bologna the persons nails were painted


You secret is safe with me.
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I hope all of this moisture stays away from cancun, mexico. I want it to be nice and sunny while I am there
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1554. xcool
hehe
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting alfabob:

I don't see any significant rotation on that radar. Even if it did have rotation, rotation on the radar does not necessarily reflect surface winds. And the surface winds shown by the ascat clearly show there is no surface low
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1551. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1549. xcool
dead 94l
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting Grothar:


?
in that picture of cutting bologna the persons nails were painted
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Based upon the current environment evolving with increasing wind shear, dry air being forced east by the upper level trough over the GOM and Yucatan, and little to no surface convergence, I'm confident enough to sing this:

Nah, nah, nah, nah,
Nah, nah, nah, nah,
Hey, hey, hey,
Goodbye Invest 94L.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1546. Grothar
Quoting TomTaylor:
ah

Surprised you didn't make a comment on my painted nails haha


?
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Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh ASCATS are in..
ALPHABOB

where you at??

Told you there was no surface low east or north of jamaica lol
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Looks like 94L is dying a slow death. But there sure are going to be plenty of other systems to track - including 91E right now. Nobody should get too upset. LOL.
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Quoting Inactivity:
Has about 16-24 hours to reach TD status, which is possible if D-Max works out well with the system.When does D-min fade away and D-Max just start to come?
around sunset
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Quoting Grothar:


Sideways, Tom, Sideways.
ah

Surprised you didn't make a comment on my painted nails haha
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1540. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)



lol
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1539. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Based on surface observations, the newest ASCAT data, and satellite analysis, it appears that the low level circulation may have collapsed. Having a difficult time finding signs of it remaining now.
the window has closed or will close soon
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1538. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT is a total miss. Right side has winds out of the south left side has from the north. The two NE vectors just north of Honduras hints some further disorganization.
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Based on surface observations, the newest ASCAT data, and satellite analysis, it appears that the low level circulation may have collapsed. Having a difficult time finding signs of it remaining now.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1536. Skyepony (Mod)
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1535. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh ASCATS are in..
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The problem with 94L was as I see it was that of too much shear and dry air in a spread out disorganized system early in the season. I look for a quiet period with one more system similar to 94 L in the area of the Caribbean in a few weeks and then a calm period until CV waves start up in august. Hopefully if they form they will re-curve or land in an unpopulated area.
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Kingdomusa: So sorry to hear that. Horrible. In my prayers. Hope help arrives quickly. :(
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
1532. Skyepony (Mod)
Described as a barber pole storm structure.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.