Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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I just did a blog on 94L and 91E. Feel free to check it out.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
1631. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think that the LLC with 94L is still there but just weak I think it is near 16.5N 83.0W moving slowly to the East yes east plus steering proves that an low level system in that area would be moving E bound

its done bud sorry but its done be lucky if its at 30 percent next outlook may even be 20
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And I Quote


good night



and dont for get 94L bust and Rip
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Officially 3.8% done with hurricane season, still at 0-0-0.

What percentage do you think we will see our first storm?


I'd guess once we're at, say, 10%.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
Officially 3.8% done with hurricane season, still at 0-0-0.

What percentage do you think we will see our first storm?
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I think that the LLC with 94L is still there but just weak I think it is near 16.5N 83.0W moving slowly to the East yes east plus steering proves that an low level system in that area would be moving E bound

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Quoting Tygor:


South Central and SE Texas is turning into a desert. Read an article the other day about it actually becoming part of the Mexican desert within 10 years. I'm moving if that's the case.


Wow. Didn't read that. I know we're dry but that's just scary.
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Quoting Seawall:
Some welcome rain today on the SW LA/SE TX border, enough maybe to help the garden, but not enough for the drought.
Lot's of places had hail, and heavy weather... but just a slow rain here, and maybe that is better.


Got some nice rain here too. (TX/LA border) Mom and dad got the hail but miraculously my dad's brand new truck didn't get a dent. Built Ford tough? Lol. Lets hope the GFS is close to right and we get some rain from 94l.
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Quoting Tygor:


South Central and SE Texas is turning into a desert. Read an article the other day about it actually becoming part of the Mexican desert within 10 years. I'm moving if that's the case.



And I Quote


wow i send you 40" of rain
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Quoting Vincent4989:
Guys, it is now safe to bid adieu to 94L.
frustrating system, not gonna lie.


Monsoonal lows and June systems are usually teaser systems. But put the two together and you get the biggest tease of all times.

Ohh well, better luck next time
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1622. Tygor
Quoting Tazmanian:



And I Quote



yup i would love too send TX some rain


South Central and SE Texas is turning into a desert. Read an article the other day about it actually becoming part of the Mexican desert within 10 years. I'm moving if that's the case.
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Quoting Vincent4989:

Umm... maybe.


It has to, considering what you said!
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
1620. Seawall
Some welcome rain today on the SW LA/SE TX border, enough maybe to help the garden, but not enough for the drought.
Lot's of places had hail, and heavy weather... but just a slow rain here, and maybe that is better.
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1619. xcool
hurricane saeson bust lolol
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The GFS brings 94l almost to me before it bleeps out. Would be nice to get some rain out of it. Got a good drenching today. Now I want MORE! Lol ;)

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And I Quote



hurricane season and 94L bust and RIP
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Does that make over half of all seasons busts? :P

Umm... maybe.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Agreed....had some severe storms around us tonight...hope we got some precip at home....I am looking at buying hay for my horses in JUNE!! Already had to do it in May which was the first time ever!!


I had a severe thunderstorm warning come up right around 1:30 this afternoon. Needless to say, the weather spirit in me was quite disappointed when it passed safely to the north. I did manage to witness a cloud to ground lightning strike though, so perhaps mother nature heard my pleas. :P

Sorry to hear about the hay. That's rough, although I can't say I'm surprised, given the severity of the ongoing drought. I don't ever remember seeing anything quite like this.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344

I think season is a bust when no storm forms in June.


Does that make over half of all seasons busts? :P
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
Guys, it is now safe to bid adieu to 94L.
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Quoting alfabob:

Nah didn't notice, but yea patience is key with these large features; I just don't trust the products sometimes. For example there was a clear vorticity south of Jamaica last night and CIMSS showed nothing on any level until recently. The rotation isn't as strong on the radar, but it is still trying to form something; needs to stay over water to have any chance though.
yes, the accuracy of the cimss products is far from perfect. There was definitely some stuff going on in the mid levels which the cimss vort maps were missing for a while. Which just goes to show they aren't perfect. But considering there are hardly any upper air soundings in the area and all they really have to use to create those maps is satellite data, the maps are pretty darn good.

Back to the Jamaica region, however, I don't think that the mlc ever became a surface circulation
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Quoting KoritheMan:


So would I. I'm starting to wonder if I'm ever going to get out of this accursed drought.


Agreed....had some severe storms around us tonight...hope we got some precip at home....I am looking at buying hay for my horses in JUNE!! Already had to do it in May which was the first time ever!!
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Get some lizards to hunt them down. But then you'll have a lizard problem, so then you'll need to recruit some cats. But then you'll have a cat problem, so then you'll need to recruit some dogs. But then you'll have a dog problem, so then you'll need to recruit...never mind, that would be mean. lol



I'm sure a Michael Vick fan will report me for this. lol
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Quoting KoritheMan:
I wonder how long until we hear that the season is a bust? :P


bust has bee mentioned several times the last couple days, You being swing shift, you have missed the daily news, lol
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I wonder how long until we hear that the season is a bust? :P



And I Quote


the season is a bust
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I wonder how long until we hear that the season is a bust? :P

I think season is a bust when no storm forms in June.
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Quoting Vincent4989:

Only the GFS model predicts that 94L will move straight to the NW. That's weird.





And I Quote


looks like 94L has a frork in a road



so take your pick
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Will take that....no problem!!


So would I. I'm starting to wonder if I'm ever going to get out of this accursed drought.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
I wonder how long until we hear that the season is a bust? :P
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
Quoting KoritheMan:
Satellite derived low cloud motions indicate that the surface circulation of Invest 94L is highly broad, with very little evidence of northerly winds along the western periphery.

Ah well, this system had a good run. We'll have more potential for storms in the future, just gotta have patience. At least this storm will bring beneficial rains to Florida, without the risk of damage.


Will take that....no problem!!
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Kicking hard in the Desert South East.



And I Quote



yup i would love too send TX some rain
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About ants...I dont use pestisides and I have found ants and roaches hate fresh rosemary....would work well inside your home.....as for outside, try mixing the mound of one bed with another bed... they will fight over the queen and destroy each other....has worked for us....worth a try...
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Only the GFS model predicts that 94L will move straight to the NW. That's weird.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
And I Quote


the dry season looks like it will be starting this week


Kicking hard in the Desert South East.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


The area NE of Jamaica is a surface trough attached to the low in the NW Caribbean.The main rotation is in the 500MB level, there is no surface low, period.

850mb (Notice the trough attached to 94L)



500mb (Quite Obvious that is the MLC of 94L)



Shear (20-30kts pushing the MLC to the ENE)

yep, agreed
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I wish the 0z nam would come true. It shows 94L bringing rain to south florida and looks pointed to head up the east coast toward North Carolina. Im praying for rain up here to help with the air quality. That wild fire brought on from the drought and lightning in mainland Dare county is making everything around here smoky and in some places dangerous to breathe.
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And I Quote


the dry season looks like it will be starting this week in N CA
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And I Quote


94L bust
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The area appears to be heading ENE away from 94L because the shear has been increasing throughout the afternoon pushing it further and further away, now to 20-30kts.

Correction, ENE.
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Quoting alfabob:

Well last night I said that was what I thought the NHC would do, but they are about 5 degrees apart right now; and are separate circulations. This one would have developed from a MLC that was shearing the LLC off of 94L, which is headed away from it.


Well looking at the vorticity images they arent seperate.
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Quoting Grothar:
Hey, TomTaylor,

You ask, I deliver and not even a comment? LOL
f5 old man!
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Quoting Grothar:


Actually, I did a paper on the Dust Bowl of the 30's. It was much worse than this. about 10 years of little or no rain. Probably 10 feet or more of topsoil disappeared from the midwest. There was an old story about a farmer who went to a bank for a loan on his farm. The banker said, "Well, I will have to come out and look at the land". The farmer said to him, "No need to do that, its blowing by right now."


yea, that's much worse than what we are currently experiencing. talk about bad timing too, right during the middle of the worst economic depression in us history
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Quoting Mrsenseofhumor:
Got an ant problem...


Get some lizards to hunt them down. But then you'll have a lizard problem, so then you'll need to recruit some cats. But then you'll have a cat problem, so then you'll need to recruit some dogs. But then you'll have a dog problem, so then you'll need to recruit...never mind, that would be mean. lol
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1585. Grothar
Hey, TomTaylor,

You ask, I deliver and not even a comment? LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Its no longer even a circulation. Its broken down to an open trough in my opinion.


A trough can still have a circulation. They just aren't closed.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
1583. Grothar
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


I'm talking about 94L...lol...but I see now others have given up..


See what happens when I get tired. I do the same to Mrs. Grothar. LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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