Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

Share this Blog
11
+

There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1682 - 1632

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Quoting IKE:


$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Not surprised. The area of convection is slowly expanding. Watch it blow up today and develop. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1681. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF
HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1680. IKE

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I am thinking along those lines too. I don't think they will drop it altogether.
Nah...they won't drop it now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
I'll say they give it a 20% chance on the next TWO.
I am thinking along those lines too. I don't think they will drop it altogether.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1678. IKE
Crownweather.....

After making a valiant attempt at development yesterday, it appears much
less likely that Invest 94-L will develop into a tropical depression.
Invest 94-L, a large area of low pressure area was located about 100
miles to to south-southwest of Grand Cayman. Shower and thunderstorm
activity continues to become less organized and in fact, it seems that a
couple of other areas of vorticity are trying to develop in association
with some deep convection near eastern Cuba and also near the eastern
part of the Dominican Republic.





Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
Posted by: JeffMasters, 11:24 AM CDT on May 27, 2011
The Atlantic hurricane season
officially begin on Wednesday, June 1, and recent computer model runs
predict that we may have some early-season action in the Central
Caribbean Sea to coincide with the start of this year's season. The GFS,
NOGAPS, and ECMWF models have all indicated in some of their recent
runs that a tropical disturbance may form between Jamaica and Central
America sometime in the May 31 - June 2 time frame, as a lobe of the
Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) pushes across
Central America into the Caribbean. Up until now, wind shear has been
too high to allow tropical storm formation in the Caribbean, due to the
presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream.

................................................. .................................................. ..

Dr. Masters was talking about, what is now 94L, 12 days ago. No...it wasn't 94 then, but the entire "event" has been going on for awhile.


Yes, this disturbance is like a never ending, with many ups and downs,twists and turns etc.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14547
1675. emcf30
This has been a Test of the Invest Tracking System
This was only a TEST

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It looks to be developing some convection over the supposed coc now. Not much but it's a start. I wouldn't give up on it just yet.


94L is utterly dead. I will be amazed if it becomes a depression, unless it finds a pocket of low shear in the GoM, which is unlikely.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1673. IKE
I'll say they give it a 20% chance on the next TWO.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1671. IKE
Posted by: JeffMasters, 11:24 AM CDT on May 27, 2011
The Atlantic hurricane season
officially begin on Wednesday, June 1, and recent computer model runs
predict that we may have some early-season action in the Central
Caribbean Sea to coincide with the start of this year's season. The GFS,
NOGAPS, and ECMWF models have all indicated in some of their recent
runs that a tropical disturbance may form between Jamaica and Central
America sometime in the May 31 - June 2 time frame, as a lobe of the
Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) pushes across
Central America into the Caribbean. Up until now, wind shear has been
too high to allow tropical storm formation in the Caribbean, due to the
presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream.

................................................. .................................................. ..

Dr. Masters was talking about, what is now 94L, 12 days ago. No...it wasn't 94 then, but the entire "event" has been going on for awhile.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858


The last few frames show moisture building over the coc.

Sorry, I tried to post the wv loop but it didn't show.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Miami NWS Discussion

EXTENDED PERIOD...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS STILL DISPARATE ON
SOLUTION AS TO WHAT THE CARIB LOW WILL DO OR GO. NAM WANTS TO BRING
THE SYSTEM UP ALONG THE SW FLA COAST IN THE GULF AS A CLOSED LOW
WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS BRING AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS S FLA INTO
THE GULF. SOME OTHER SYSTEMS TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO THE ATLC. W MEANS
A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND E LESS. AT THIS TIME LEAN TOWARD THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH OF THE ECMWF/GFS AS THE NAM IS QUICKER
AND AS A CLOSED LOW RAMPS UP THE POTENTIAL WINDS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE CARIB SYSTEM WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY INCREASE THE POPS PENDING FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
People are talking about poor little 94L as though it's been clogging the blog for weeks, when the fact is it's been a official invest for fewer than five full days. I guess we spend so much time watching and waiting for these early-season pots to boil that some of us lose sense of time.

Maybe the phenomenon should have a name. You know, something like "The Weather Underground Time Dilation Effect"? ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1666. MahFL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MahFL:
On the plus side, convection is expanding on 94L.
It looks to be developing some convection over the supposed coc now. Not much but it's a start. I wouldn't give up on it just yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1664. MahFL
On the plus side, convection is expanding on 94L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1663. MahFL
Here in NE FL I had 0.11 inch of rain yesterday. Hot and dry forcast again.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1662. IKE
"""I had faith in 94L. I will not resign!"""


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good mor- (looks at PR radar)
OK Goodbye lol XD

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
...30
percent....and upper-level winds are becoming less favorable
for development of this system.

We are gathered here today to honor a 2 week invest that teased us from the beginning.





Yeah.... 94L, What a weiner....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
good morning, and oh yeah...

poof!

water vapor loop looks fiesty over by puerto rico though
(guess this means i'll get more work done today)

It would be something if that activity by the Greater Antilles curved around and went back into the Caribbean, wouldn't it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Formation of that overnight S. Ontario thunderstorm cell appears to be related to lake breeze as the initial storm moved over Lake Huron.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1657. aquak9
Baja- bring food- I'm a hungry pup. What's a good local food for you? Looks like you might hafta eat it under an umbrella, tho.

Ike- you could not have sent flowers any prettier than that QPF. I love purple. Bring it on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning. PR is going thru heavy rains this morning. Maybe ,this is what GFS had in past runs of a second low pressure forming near us.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14547
1655. Hugo7
Cali should watch 91E over the next week or so. If it does what models say it will that means more moisture.
Member Since: June 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
1654. IKE
5 day QPF....



132 hr. 6Z GFS....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting aquak9:
Seems like we always have some excitement around the first coupla weeks of June, then yaaawwwn...

kinda like getting your salad right away, then waiting over an hour for the main course.
lol This is more like getting a glass of water 1/2 hour before u get ur salad..... lol

I may be able to make the wake, especially if it's before 2 p.m. EDT....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
lol....soon the way it looks.

Oh yeah....0-0-0 continues. One week down...25 to go and it's over.


Ike Caster! ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1651. aquak9
Seems like we always have some excitement around the first coupla weeks of June, then yaaawwwn...

kinda like getting your salad right away, then waiting over an hour for the main course.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1650. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Good morning all.

Looks like many level-headed folks, including pressureman, were right about 94L.

When's the wake, Ike? I'm hungry.
lol....soon the way it looks.

Oh yeah....0-0-0 continues. One week down...25 to go and it's over.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
dont come to orlando and feed the homeless. get thrown in jail! guess what the ones who make the rules got plenty of food. jackasses
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1648. aquak9
Good morning all.

Looks like many level-headed folks, including pressureman, were right about 94L.

When's the wake, Ike? I'm hungry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning all. I'm lolling at the pple who say no JUN storms = bust season.... lol I guess they got spoiled by 2005....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vincent4989:

I think season is a bust when no storm forms in June.


2008 had no storms form in June ;)

94L's becoming less likely to develop as shear is becoming increasingly hostile. I give it about a 20% chance of development now.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
1645. IKE
...30
percent....and upper-level winds are becoming less favorable
for development of this system.

We are gathered here today to honor a 2 week invest that teased us from the beginning.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
This has to be done.

inb4thisseasonisbust.

Remember 2010?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So, after perusing several varied animated maps of 94L, I'm left with the assumption that shear is at the moment hostile. Yes, no?

With that said, whats the culprit? Subtropical Jet or ull/ tutt? I thought it appeared to be the Jet, but figured I'd wake some of you up with that burning question.

Good Morning and Good Night, WU!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Clear!
(zaps)
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
131 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2011

VALID JUN 07/0000 UTC THRU JUN 10/1200 UTC

...CIRCULATION EDGING TOWARD SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATE DAY 3...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: PENDING 00Z/07 ECMWF

THE NAM IS FASTER AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THAN
THE 12Z/06 ECMWF. THE GFS DIRECTS THE CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF
CUBA...WITH THE UKMET KEEPING IT SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WILL WAIT FOR THE NEW ECMWF TO MAKE A CALL ON THIS SYSTEM.




...CIRCULATION EDGING TOWARD SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATE DAY 3...

PREFERENCE: ECMWF

THE NAM IS FASTER AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THAN
THE ECMWF. THE GFS DIRECTS THE CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF
CUBA...WITH THE UKMET KEEPING IT SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
AT THIS POINT.


Good night all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
just looked at 94 (2:30 Am est) and it looks as if it has checked-out, leaving nothing but the room key. mass mess is heading North-east by east. being called a developing cyclone -if anything- with a 20% chance...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



And I Quote


the season is a bust
Had a wiener with mustard. Now ready for the season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1637. Hugo7
Quoting KoritheMan:
I just did a blog on 94L and 91E. Feel free to check it out.
I agree that 94L looks quite done. I also think that 91E will develope to a TS within the next 24 hours though.
Member Since: June 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
131 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2011

VALID JUN 07/0000 UTC THRU JUN 10/1200 UTC

...CIRCULATION EDGING TOWARD SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATE DAY 3...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: PENDING 00Z/07 ECMWF

THE NAM IS FASTER AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THAN
THE 12Z/06 ECMWF. THE GFS DIRECTS THE CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF
CUBA...WITH THE UKMET KEEPING IT SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WILL WAIT FOR THE NEW ECMWF TO MAKE A CALL ON THIS SYSTEM.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1635. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
good night people see in the am
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1634. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
000
ABNT20 KNHC 070537
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OR NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1633. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
as soon as TWO comes out iam outta here just having last smoke thats it for me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1682 - 1632

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
48 °F
Overcast