Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June



Really? Not in SoCal..... dry Saturday and Sunday....
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57. jeffs713 3:22 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
reed.... uh... the thing you're calling an "eye" isn't even at the COC, and 91E is an INVEST. Its not even a TD yet.


( giggle )
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80. HCW
Quoting reedzone:


Its TWC, this new hurricane expert sucks anyways. Steve Lyons was wayy better.


And nobody will be as good as the late John Hope :(
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Quoting AussieStorm:

C) None.

Wait, what?
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
The first 2 invests this year in a row that dont attain Cat 5 status? Seasons a bust.
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Here come the dry air from over the Yucatan.
Conditions probably will get worse and worse from here on out.
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Sure hope this happens... rain still needed.

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Quoting AussieStorm:


C) None.



Change that. 91E will be Depression soon. Hence this.
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big blob off the east coast??

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Quoting BobinTampa:


Hey, wait a second, I report from Tampa, FL. You have to move.



LOL
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Quoting bigwes6844:
poll time: Which invest will be a depression first and get the first name of the season?

A) invest 94L

B) invest 91L

C) None.
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Hello everyone. This is WeatherfanPR, yep, from Puerto Rico but from now on I'll be reporting from Tampa, FL.


Hey, wait a second, I report from Tampa, FL. You have to move.

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With these two separate entities with such divergence, it would be difficult for this to develop much today. However the elongation near to the newly established center is interesting. If there is sufficient pressure falls around the new center, it could cause the system to begin wrapping around and hold the convection together. It would not then be out of the question for this to strengthen a little bit more. I am going to do a further analysis of the upper atmosphere to see if this is possible. As I have stated for the past 4 days, the moisture field should spread well into the Florida Straits and South Florida and perhaps ride up the west coast of Florida. I doubt at this time it could be much more than a depression. If the spiral banding continues through today, we will be looking at a very strong disturbance. (Notice I never once wrote, "that being said"


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23723
and the GFS run is underway..
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66. HCW
Dr Rick Knabb says that it will not form and will be no threat to the USA

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On an aside, some aesthetically pleasing shots of the Chilean volcano: Here and some more here (Don't like the Mail whatsoever, but the pictures are very good).

Probably in the region of VEI 3, maybe 4 if it continues for a while.

As to the Caribbean invest, there always seems to be at least one invest every year early on that some people get a little too animated over. I'm sure by now a list of the top ten invests in terms of interest could be created.
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Quoting weathers4me:
94L is just now making local news conversation in Tampa. I'm thinking we will have a depression by this evening.


It's still possible but getting less likely than before. I think it might make it to TD status tomorrow and possibly TS briefly then die out over/near Cuba and head here as a remmant low, bringing us some decent rain in S FL.
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Before Gustav became a TD in 2008, it had an eye like feature as well... And Jeff, I said *eye like*, doesn't necessarily mean an *eye*.
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Quoting jeffs713:
reed.... uh... the thing you're calling an "eye" isn't even at the COC, and 91E is an INVEST. Its not even a TD yet. Eyes usually don't form until hurricane status.

Remember Tropical Storm Hermine? Remember the North American Blizzard of 2006?
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
94L is just now making local news conversation in Tampa. I'm thinking we will have a depression by this evening.
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Quoting reedzone:
Vincent, visible satellite proves you are not seeing things.. A ragged eye like feature is shown on 91E


That eye like feature even happens to tropical storms also:
From Wikipedia:
Before landfall, Hermine had an eye-like feature
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
reed.... uh... the thing you're calling an "eye" isn't even at the COC, and 91E is an INVEST. Its not even a TD yet. Eyes usually don't form until hurricane status.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
Quoting Skyepony:


Check that poll again..91L? Died last month..ya'll mean 91E.


91E should be TD 1-E this afternoon if trend of organization continues.
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Vincent, visible satellite proves you are not seeing things.. A ragged eye like feature is shown on 91E

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Hello everyone. This is WeatherfanPR, yep, from Puerto Rico but from now on I'll be reporting from Tampa, FL.
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POOR 94L I would start wondering
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Quoting sammywammybamy:




Looks pretty good. Thanks.
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Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

Master,but not Mother Nature;he doesn't know everything.Example:was Dr.M saying that Julia'10 will be a Cat4?


Actually, Julia did make Cat 4....it's my avatar, alongside Igor...
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Quoting Skyepony:


Check that poll again..91L? Died last month..ya'll mean 91E.


Just noticed that.. thanks
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Quoting reedzone:
I know perfectly how to read maps, been studying them for a few years now after I had "guessed" predictions. Hurricane Bill in 2009 and Earl last year were very successful predictions of mine, I nailed them by looking at the steering flow maps and forecasts. You can't tell me I can't read maps when I looked at the way the high was weak enough to allow Alex of last year to hit northern Mexico while models had it going way south of my prediction. I'm not gonna argue about this anymore, it's pointless. I make my mistakes, mishaps, even wishcasts lol.. I'm only human. While you sir are a troll :P

Just ignore the troll reed, ignore the troll.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
47. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting reedzone:


Most likely B. It has a COC with convection bursting around it. It's also in more favorable conditions then 94L.


Check that poll again..91L? Died last month..ya'll mean 91E.
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Coffee break! I have coffee and donuts here. Come on, no bickering.

Happy to report that the rain has stopped in my area (Norbrook/St. Andrew). There is minimum water in the gully. I welcome the rain, 'cause a couple weeks ago the Water authorities were considering water restrictions again. Too bad we can't control the amount and location.

Have a great day!
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Quoting Jax82:
poor Texas, not only are they in a severe drought, now they are in a heat wave.


yes we are,Dealing with a lot of fires as well. So if there is any wish casting going to happen. everyone wish for a TD to hit the entire TX coastline

Thanks
Brandy
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Thanks Dr. M; 94L might be at the right place at the wrong time with the dip of the sub-tropical jet south of Cuba where it wants to go.....
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It's very smoky here in Palm Coast today, gotta be a fire near.. Hasn't been smoky like this since 2006.
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Quoting Vincent4989:

Jeff Masters is a weather master, Pun intended. 94L is singing "I Will Survive".

Master,but not Mother Nature;he doesn't know everything.Example:was Dr.M saying that Julia'10 will be a Cat4?
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still NNE-NE winds here in GCM or MWCR or Grand Cayman how every you want to call here its the same thing
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40. XLR8
Statement as of 5:35 PM CDT on June 5, 2011

... Record high temperature set at Jackson today...

The temperature rose to 101 degrees this afternoon at Jackson Evers
international Airport. This breaks the previous record high
temperature for this date of 98 degrees... which was set in 1899...
1902... and 1985.
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Arlene holding on line 2. Your call will be answered in the order it was recieved. Please continue to hold.
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In getting a few more images in this morning, Levi was indeed correct with his analyzed position earlier. Pretty evident low level circulation partially exposed at 18.1N and 81.7W as seen on RGB satellite imagery.
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27. Its just you. VERY MUCH you.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
Quoting pressureman:
reed im not going with dr masters said...i have been saying this since early this morning...so wake up reed 94L is going to die...we will have to wait for arlene for at least another few weeks if that...so reed before you go disagreeing with anyone and call out names like a child i suggest you do a little less arguing and learn how to read maps...

Jeff Masters is a weather master, Pun intended. 94L is singing "I Will Survive".
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Based upon the current upper level pattern and recent trends, Invest 94L has about another 24 to 36 hours left to develop further before the door inevitably gets shut once and for all. Personally, I'm between Dr. Master's and the current NHC's chances for development at around 30%. Seen too many surprises in the past to let my guard down just yet, but meteorology is gradually becoming less and less favorable for development.


I agree with this. So many things can happen in one day, or nothing.. Mother Nature has the call on if this develops or not. It has a few days left, not time to RIP the invest just yet.
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Quoting reedzone:
Just because Dr. Masters thinks it won't form doesn't mean it's written in stone guys. He has been wrong a couple of times.

That's true,94l still has a chance,however if it won't develop today its chances are rather low because of shear
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.