Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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Greetings all.
Just in for lunch and copious amounts of Water.
Glad to announce that a crew of Able-Bodied young men are frantically mixing concrete and pouring a footing. About time too, as the weather is Kind today but is changeable.

I am in agreement with the Doc and the NHC re 94L.
I dont see it getting more 'developed' than it is anytime soon..
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24059
Quoting sammywammybamy:

NEWEST MODEL RUNS:

DYANMIC:



more east..
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Although California is ALWAYS grateful for any rain, it's been a very wet year for us. We'd be happy to send some over to the drought areas, if only it was possible.

This year has been rather unusual, not only with wet, but with record low high temperatures. The East San Francisco Bay Area usually has highs in the 80's to 90's this time of year, but has been struggling to even get out of the 60's. With this storm over the weekend, high temperatures were 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

What's been most difficult is knowing that this continual string of late-spring storms has been the cause of so many catastrophic tornado outbreaks. Our benefit has consistently turned into others' misfortune. I'd give anything to have clear weather if it meant the safety of others.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
what is also intresting is that the LLC the NHC is tracking is now partially under the convection, and thunderstorms are trying to cover in all areas, also intresting is the convection exploding to the SW i wonder if it trying to wrap all around


Boy, I'm good.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Quoting Seflhurricane:
what is also intresting is that the LLC the NHC is tracking is now partially under the convection, and thunderstorms are trying to cover in all areas, also intresting is the convection exploding to the SW i wonder if it trying to wrap all around

one thing I would very much like to see is the LLC to back off to the SSE where that clear area is between all of this convection and the for the convection area to tighten in the area which I think may happen steering is weak
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
what is also intresting is that the LLC the NHC is tracking is now partially under the convection, and thunderstorms are trying to cover in all areas, also intresting is the convection exploding to the SW i wonder if it trying to wrap all around


Credit to Grothar for mentioning that we should look at the SW side for flare-ups. I think the TWO will once again stick at 40% but if it works out tonight should be the big organization of convection. It might have tonight and tomorrow night, but at about Wednesday noon it will be out of time. If something strange happens though, it may have till Thursday morning though...

What do you guys think (or Gals)
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Quoting xcool:
20% at 2pm jmo


Im not trying to argue but why would they lower it to 20% when it's actually looking the best it has its entire lifetime? I would leave it at 40% for now. It actually looks like it's trying to consolidate now.
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if you look closely at the visible images you can see how 94L is starting to have convection fire around the circulation and starting to organize a bit better but i would like to see the buoy observations and grand cayman as convection is firing right over the center near grand cayman island
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
3.2% done with the season.
Still 0-0-0 what a bust...
yep thats it pack it nothing to see here
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Good Night all. I will leave you with this.
NWS Forecast

FZNT23 KNHC 061442
OFFNT3

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 06 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...THE SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W
INCLUDING BAHAMAS...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ089-062130-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 06 2011

SYNOPSIS
A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK 1007 MB LOW IS NEAR 18N82W.
THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NW AROUND 5 KT THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. BROAD TROUGHING IS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL
N ATLC N OF 19N. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N52W TO 0958W
WILL MOVE NW AND MERGE WITH THE TROUGH TUE THROUGH WED. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE THEN INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN WED.


AMZ082-062130-
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 06 2011

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. S OF 18N W OF 82W NW TO W
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. S OF 18N E OF 82W S TO SW
WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND
NEAR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUE THROUGH WED
WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. N OF 18N W OF 80W NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS
4 TO 7 FT. S OF 18N W OF 80W NW TO N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3
TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS NEAR LOW.

THU AND FRI
E OF 81W SE TO S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. W
OF 81W NW TO N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF 82W.


Station 42056 (LLNR 110) - Yucatan Basin
3-meter discus buoy
AMPS payload
19.802 N 84.857 W (19°48'6" N 84°51'24" W)
Conditions at 42056 as of
(10:50 am CDT)
1550 GMT on 06/06/2011:
Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.6 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 103 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.84 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.3 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.6 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 89.4 °F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

VERY INTERESTING oops sorry for caps anyway yes the 850 vort max is now right near where your location is 15N 82W. the vort max that was on the LLC is now weaker so maybe we are going to have a LLC/COC relocation to that area plus that increase in convection there not only that but the steering shows what whatever is in that area will move E-ENE very slowly untill it reaches SE Jamaica then it will move a little quicker to N-NW

850 vort


steering
what is also intresting is that the LLC the NHC is tracking is now partially under the convection, and thunderstorms are trying to cover in all areas, also intresting is the convection exploding to the SW i wonder if it trying to wrap all around
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3.2% done with the season.
Still 0-0-0 what a bust...
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When will we have 8 to 10 inches on the northern leewards islands....
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Quoting Inactivity:


Flare up at 15N 82W...I think, look at the last 3 hours.

VERY INTERESTING oops sorry for caps anyway yes the 850 vort max is now right near where your location is 15N 82W. the vort max that was on the LLC is now weaker so maybe we are going to have a LLC/COC relocation to that area plus that increase in convection there not only that but the steering shows what whatever is in that area will move E-ENE very slowly untill it reaches SE Jamaica then it will move a little quicker to N-NW

850 vort


steering
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#97,
Vince, I imagine he'll add an update on 91E later this aftn or eve as it continues growing... I was more surprised the Hurricane Hunters still show negative requirements for E Pac...

#101,
Howdy Beell,
Ya ready to set yet another record high today?
LOL... Only hit 97F yesterday here before cloud blowoff cooled us down, but no, had no measureable rain... again... ;)

I tell ya what's a kicker - our official station HUML1 had finally hit / broke the 90 degree mark on May 30, with a 91F, a bit later than average... And just 2 days later on June 1st set record 100F for the earliest 100 ever!
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Quoting Inactivity:


Lol! But seriously, look at around 15N 82W...



(seeing some blue on the water vapor, pretty strong thunderstorms there.)


Evidence of a strong broad low..If this post is even showing, I want to apologize for my bickering earlier, I just can't stand trolls. I still feel 94L has a decent chance to develop to at least a Tropical Depression.
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for those of us that live in South Florida it now appears likely that we will get heavy rain later this week look at how 94L MOISTURE is moving towards the NNW. as for organization i see the same except the LLC south of grand cayman has now partially moved under the convection and new convection is firing up to its SW lets wait and see, i still think it has a shot to develop but i has to do it either today or tomorrow.
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113. xcool
20% at 2pm jmo
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


That's right, and today is the anniversary of D-Day as well. I just did my research and wow, it turns out he is buried literally five minutes from my house. Holy crap, I had no clue. I should pay my respects some time.


You a Macon boy?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Quoting Grothar:


Ah, someone is paying attention. LOL


Lol! But seriously, look at around 15N 82W...



(seeing some blue on the water vapor, pretty strong thunderstorms there.)

Edit: Thunderstorms loosely surround the center in this image, now just for a flare up in the center and we will have much greater chance of a tropical storm, anyone think that will happen?
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Quoting Grothar:


He was invaluable during World War II. Many people are unaware of his contributions during that time.


That's right, and today is the anniversary of D-Day as well. I just did my research and wow, it turns out he is buried literally five minutes from my house. Holy crap, I had no clue. I should pay my respects some time.
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Quoting NRAamy:
88. AussieStorm 3:46 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
42mil displaced by natural disasters in 2010


Welcome back!

:)


Thanks.
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Quoting Inactivity:


Flare up at 15N 82W...I think, look at the last 3 hours.


Ah, someone is paying attention. LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
I too will go with C:none
we need rain real bad in SE Fla.
can someone place an order for at least some afternoon rains please
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Is it still unbelievably cold in Norway this time of year?


Norway isn't as cold as most people think, especially the coastal areas. The climate is quite mild for being that far North. Small arms of the Gulfstream brush our coast, moderating the temperatures. Although in winter most places only have about 2 or 3 hours of daylight.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Quoting Cotillion:
On an aside, some aesthetically pleasing shots of the Chilean volcano: Here and some more here (Don't like the Mail whatsoever, but the pictures are very good).

Probably in the region of VEI 3, maybe 4 if it continues for a while.

As to the Caribbean invest, there always seems to be at least one invest every year early on that some people get a little too animated over. I'm sure by now a list of the top ten invests in terms of interest could be created.


And some great videos here and here.
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Quoting beell:


And that's just this morning...
LOL. Thankfully it was only water I almost choked on laughing...
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Quoting Grothar:
What we should be looking for is a flare-up of convection to the SW of the center. If enough convection can build there, it may be able to be entrained in closer to the center. Watch for it.

Link


Flare up at 15N 82W...I think, look at the last 3 hours.
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101. beell
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Awh thats terrible.... hahahahaha


You're right. It was. I apologize to the entire community. I poof myself now.

(hey, DocNDswamp!)
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Meanwhile: Japan's Nuclear Emergency Response Headquarters admitted announced today--finally--that reactors 1, 2, and 3 all experienced full meltdowns after the March quake, with melted fuel still pooled at the bottom of each reactor's pressure vessel (and leaking from at least one of those PV's, the one belonging to Unit #1).

TEPCO, of course, is avoiding using the term "meltdown", instead acknowledging that the fuel rods "are broken".
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Quoting Grothar:


No, General Hardesty. He told me about it this morning. And currently, as most of the bloggers know, I am in Norway so I have no other vested interest other than disseminating information to my fellow bloggers. P.S. My residence is actually in South East Florida.


Is it still unbelievably cold in Norway this time of year?
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Quoting beell:


And that's just this morning...


Get off the decaf, beell. LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Quoting DocNDswamp:
G'day,
Comparing the present organization to disorganization of the two, my vote goes to Adrian before we see Arlene... IMO, 91E already has shown enough sustained convection spiraling around it's well-defined center to be classed a TD... By the time the NHC calls it, might just jump straight to TS status... Viewing the WV loop, only short-term inhibiting factor I can find in environment has been the upper level low lying to it's west that tended to rob some of the convection from 91E past 24 hrs, but with slightly more separation of the two features, and / or weakening of the ULL as model projections hint, 91E should be able to ramp up... and rather quickly. It certainly has plenty of fuel to play with given the high SST's in the region!

Was a little surprised Dr Jeff didn't mention 91E, also a bit odd so far there is no recon flight tasked to investigate it...

I was also surprised.Yesterday i asked him in the last blog to include 91E in this blog, but today he didn't. that's odd, why?
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
it looks like a new MLC is developing 17.0N 77.5W the old MLC at 18.4N 76.5W
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Quoting StormHype:


Who's general thinking? Yours? You must be in SW FL. lol


No, General Hardesty. He told me about it this morning. And currently, as most of the bloggers know, I am in Norway so I have no other vested interest other than disseminating information to my fellow bloggers. P.S. My residence is actually in South East Florida.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
88. AussieStorm 3:46 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
42mil displaced by natural disasters in 2010


Welcome back!

:)

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Quoting beell:


And that's just this morning...


Awh thats terrible.... hahahahaha
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G'day,
Comparing the present organization to disorganization of the two, my vote goes to Adrian before we see Arlene... IMO, 91E already has shown enough sustained convection spiraling around it's well-defined center to be classed a TD... By the time the NHC calls it, might just jump straight to TS status... Viewing the WV loop, only short-term inhibiting factor I can find in environment has been the upper level low lying to it's west that tended to rob some of the convection from 91E past 24 hrs, but with slightly more separation of the two features, and / or weakening of the ULL as model projections hint, 91E should be able to ramp up... and rather quickly. It certainly has plenty of fuel to play with given the high SST's in the region!

Was a little surprised Dr Jeff didn't mention 91E, also a bit odd so far there is no recon flight tasked to investigate it...
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What we should be looking for is a flare-up of convection to the SW of the center. If enough convection can build there, it may be able to be entrained in closer to the center. Watch for it.

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Quoting Grothar:
I don't think the NOGAPS is the most reliable model at this time, but it does reflect the general thinking at the moment. I am waiting for the UKMET to do a comparison.



Who's general thinking? Yours? You must be in SW FL. lol
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1200
Quoting CosmicEvents:
That's true. He has been "wrong" a few times. But don't cast stones. You've been "wrong" hundreds of times.


And that's just this morning...
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42mil displaced by natural disasters in 2010

MORE than 42 million people were forced to flee their homes because of natural disasters across the world in 2010, more than double the number during the previous year, experts said today.

One reason for the increase could be climate change, and the international community should be doing more to contain it, the experts said.

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre said the increase from 17 million displaced people in 2009 was mainly due to the impact of "mega-disasters" such as the massive floods in China and Pakistan and the earthquakes in Chile and Haiti.

It said more than 90 per cent of the disaster displacements were caused by weather-related hazards such as floods and storms that were probably affected by global warming, but it couldn't say to what extent.

"The intensity and frequency of extreme weather events is increasing, and this trend is only set to continue. With all probability, the number of those affected and displaced will rise as human-induced climate change comes into full force," said Elisabeth Rasmusson, the secretary-general of the Norwegian Refugee Council.

The monitoring centre and refugee council presented the report at an international conference about climate change and displacement in Oslo.

UN High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres called the issue of climate-related displacement "the defining challenge of our times" and criticised the international community for lacking the political will to reduce the pace of climate change.

"There is increasing evidence to suggest that natural disasters are growing in frequency and intensity and that this is linked to the longer-term process of climate change," Guterres said.

Asia was the hardest hit region last year, with the largest number of displaced people seen in countries such as India, The Philippines, Bangladesh, Indonesia, China and Pakistan.

In China alone, more than 15 million people were forced to leave their homes following floods, while 11 million people were displaced in Pakistan, the report said. The large floods in India in 2009 also continued to force people to leave their homes in 2010.

"This report provides us with evidence of the extent and urgency of the problem that we cannot ignore. We must increase collaborative efforts to prevent displacement by natural disasters, and do a better job of protecting those displaced," Rasmusson said.
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Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
Quoting HCW:


And nobody will be as good as the late John Hope :(


He was invaluable during World War II. Many people are unaware of his contributions during that time.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Quoting HCW:


And nobody will be as good as the late John Hope :(


I agree
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I don't think the NOGAPS is the most reliable model at this time, but it does reflect the general thinking at the moment. I am waiting for the UKMET to do a comparison.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June



Really? Not in SoCal..... dry Saturday and Sunday....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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