Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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anyway I am off to an exam give me a sitrep when I come back
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Inactivity:
Pay attention to 15N 82W, 16N 78W, and a little tiny spot of suspicion at around 16.5N and 82W, Slow down the loop a lot and only look at the last 3-4 frames. Hope this helps... XD

What's happening? Is it beneficial or destructive to the invest?
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
Quoting emcf30:


You need to start giving us daily tropical video updates. Complete with maps and stuff.


I posted one earlier that I did as a test. See if you like it.

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Quoting alfabob:
94L is extremely weak, I think the vorticity over Jamaica has the greatest chance of becoming anything.



Good call on the ULL last night. Didn't notice it personally and at that time of night my mind was already asleep, lol.
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Significant change in terms of development today - all sides of the circulation of 94L has convection and is currently building. It looks somewhat like Alex did at invest stage now. Monsoonal low.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Am I the only person who thinks 94L looks awful?
lol
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Am I the only person who thinks 94L looks awful?
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
175. DVG
Quoting MississippiWx:
Maybe I'm crazy, but it seems like today is the first time we've had thunderstorms developing on all sides of the low. Sure, it's still broad, but thunderstorms are developing and wrapping around all sides now and if they can tighten up the low, we may not be done with 94L yet.


Looks that way to me too. The mll (?) to the east seems to be losing it's punch. The clouds all seem to be forming a broad circulation.

I know many here really know their stuff, but I really look forward to Levi when he does the video.
Also wish 456 was back.
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Quoting PcolaDan:



I'm a half-twit remember? :|


But we like you anyway.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Pottery

94L developed a split personality last night but the original low pressure reasserted itself and prevented the MLC South of Jamaica from taking over. Interestingly, at one time since then the vorticity was divided between the original low ( 850 and 700 mb vort ) and the MLC ( 500 mb in the higher levels ).

The heavens have opened up here which is great. Lots of rain coming down.

Yeah, I was surprised to look at it all, this morning early.
Now that it is virtually 2 systems, I dont see either one being able to develop during the next few days.
You, and a lot of others, will get soaked though. It's a huge area....
Enjoy it!
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172. Hugo7
I think they should give 91E a name. Also looks like 94 maybe trying to get a tighter core finally.
Member Since: June 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
171. xcool
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Quoting alfabob:
94L is extremely weak, I think the vorticity over Jamaica has the greatest chance of becoming anything.

maybe
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Pay attention to 15N 82W, 16N 78W, and a little tiny spot of suspicion at around 16.5N and 82W, Slow down the loop a lot and only look at the last 3-4 frames. Hope this helps... XD
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Finally getting hammered with much needed here in Grand Cayman.
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Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, I don't like Maconite, either. Sounds like something with which one would line their pool.


Or one of those secret societies.

shhhhhhhhhh
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Quoting Grothar:


Humility has its virtues. P.S. Don't walk on the concrete until it is dry. And by looking at the weather maps by you, that may be some time. Stay dry, pot.

I will follow your Sage Advice...
Bright and Hot right now, but Stuff is possible at any time.
Contingency plans include 22' long Galv sheets standing close by.
Although once the conc is poured, rain will not bother it as its in a trench.
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Need to see pressure falls in the area to show that further development may be occurring.
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Quoting Grothar:


As I said earlier, I can't type too much because my arm hurts from patting my back. Let's just leave the other parts of the anatomy out of this. LOL (You twit)



I'm a half-twit remember? :|
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163. beell
116. DocNDswamp 4:07 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

#101,
Howdy Beell,
Ya ready to set yet another record high today?
LOL... Only hit 97F yesterday here before cloud blowoff cooled us down, but no, had no measureable rain... again... ;)


We're ready, Doc. We had wind yesterday evening! Cooled us right down into the upper 90's. Everyone is sure it had to be a tornado (except me of course) although no visual confirmation has surfaced yet.

Just up the road a bit:

2340 UNK 2 NE LAKE HOUSTON DAM HARRIS TX
2994 9512
NUMEROUS POWER POLES SNAPPED AT BASE ... STREET SIGNS DOWN ... ROOFS OFF 2 HOUSES ... NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. SCATTERED DAMAGE FROM CROSBY TO LAKE HOUSTON DAM ALONG FM 2100. (HGX)
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162. IKE
96 hour 12Z GFS....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting pottery:

Going Full Speed Ahead!
No hurricane shelters needed here.
Maybe a Wine Cellar, Entertainment Void, Man Cave... something like that!


Hi Pottery

94L developed a split personality last night but the original low pressure reasserted itself and prevented the MLC South of Jamaica from taking over. Interestingly, at one time since then the vorticity was divided between the original low ( 850 and 700 mb vort ) and the MLC ( 500 mb in the higher levels ).

The heavens have opened up here which is great. Lots of rain coming down.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
grothar look at the RGB flotar and click on fronts to see the NHC low position and you will see what i see , starting to crank up



Yep!

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Quoting Inyo:
This sort of rain is unheard of this time of year in southern and central California. It is probably going to have significant effects on the vegetation of the state... as this is either a 200+ year return interval event, or a sign of climate change.

Most of California is bone-dry in summer, and the plants are adapted to this. If this were to change, a lot of the chaparral would probably succumb to fungus as it does not tolerate summer water well. Then what? The hillsides would start coming down on people, even more so than before.

Or... maybe it's just a one time event.


I share your concerns, Inyo.

If I'm not mistaken, San Francisco saw rain until May 30 or 31 during the 2009-2010 rainy season. So, I'm wondering if this is a new weather pattern myself. Usually, rain begins to slow down dramatically after the month of March and usually does not show up again until late-November or early-December. During both the 2009-2010 and the 2010-2011 rainy season, San Francisco had rain start in mid-October and not end until late-May or early-June.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see what the next couple years hold considering before 2009-2010 rainy season, we had 3 years of drought.
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Maybe I'm crazy, but it seems like today is the first time we've had thunderstorms developing on all sides of the low. Sure, it's still broad, but thunderstorms are developing and wrapping around all sides now and if they can tighten up the low, we may not be done with 94L yet.
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Quoting pottery:

When I grow up, I want to be just like you!
Maybe a little more Humble, but apart from that.....

hehehehhh


Humility has its virtues. P.S. Don't walk on the concrete until it is dry. And by looking at the weather maps by you, that may be some time. Stay dry, pot.
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Very heavy rain in Grand Cayman. Only been a few minutes and some roads are already flooding. Typical...had thunderstorms all around but clear overhead until I needed to leave the office for a few moments!
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Convection at 15N 82W continues to grow!

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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Yeah, a Maconite they call us. I prefer Macon boy though XD


Yeah, I don't like Maconite, either. Sounds like something with which one would line their pool.
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Quoting PcolaDan:



:)


As I said earlier, I can't type too much because my arm hurts from patting my back. Let's just leave the other parts of the anatomy out of this. LOL (You twit)
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Quoting Grothar:


Is Grothar on a roll today, or what? Must be those new shots they are giving me. LOL


You go,Gro...I'm watching for some convection too...and B-12 does wonders :)
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Quoting emcf30:
Hows the concrete job going Pot. Must be building a hurricane shelter.

Going Full Speed Ahead!
No hurricane shelters needed here.
Maybe a Wine Cellar, Entertainment Void, Man Cave... something like that!
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
if you look closely at the visible images you can see how 94L is starting to have convection fire around the circulation and starting to organize a bit better but i would like to see the buoy observations and grand cayman as convection is firing right over the center near grand cayman island
I don't know about organization etc. but it is pouring here and pressure is hovering around 1007-1008 mb.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting Seflhurricane:
grothar look at the RGB flotar and click on fronts to see the NHC low position and you will see what i see , starting to crank up


You mean this?
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Quoting Grothar:


You a Macon boy?


Yeah, a Maconite they call us. I prefer Macon boy though XD
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Hows the concrete job going Pot. Must be building a hurricane shelter.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
Quoting Grothar:


Boy, I'm good.

When I grow up, I want to be just like you!
Maybe a little more Humble, but apart from that.....

hehehehhh
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12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





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Raining Hard in CI now, and a clap of thunder over George Town....
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Quoting Grothar:


Boy, I'm good.


You need to start giving us daily tropical video updates. Complete with maps and stuff.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
Quoting reedzone:


Evidence of a strong broad low..If this post is even showing, I want to apologize for my bickering earlier, I just can't stand trolls. I still feel 94L has a decent chance to develop to at least a Tropical Depression.


So reed, are you seeing what I am seeing?
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Quoting Grothar:


Boy, I'm good.



:)
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Quoting Grothar:


Boy, I'm good.
grothar look at the RGB flotar and click on fronts to see the NHC low position and you will see what i see , starting to crank up
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
NEWEST MODEL RUNS:

DYNAMIC:




Is Grothar on a roll today, or what? Must be those new shots they are giving me. LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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