Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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282. xcool
huhhhhhhhhhhhhh huh huh 50% wow
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting SouthDadeFish:


Look at the dry air progressing E over the Yucatan

Link


well, it's 50% anyway...
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one could clearly see better organization...we have some un-trained eyes and opinoons on this blog
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WOW... I said 50% tonight! I almost GUESSED right!
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50%, my thinking also! Good call NHC.
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Wow, well let me be the first one to admit I was wrong. This will keep the blog active...
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Re: 253. I think he/she was trying to say: I like your photos. I live in Europe and can't see hurricanes. JMO
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50? o_O
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19144
up to 50%
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
272. IKE
Quoting Inactivity:
First...Agian...HAHAHAHAHA

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061746
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN IS MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Glad i don't do this for a living.

Interesting. That should fire the blog up!
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TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN IS MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

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50%, impressive.
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Hello everybody,and welcome to the season opener/practice run.

Two quick things:

1) Here in Cayman Brac, I've measured 1 3/4 inches of rain just since this morning; pressure steady at 1009.

2) I noticed that crown weather now has a composite of Cuban Radar -- very cool for looking at the whole Western Caribbean.

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Wow, wasn't expecting 50%.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


South Palm Beach County here...

Havent had rain for 4 Weeks....
Yeah, South Palm Beach had that nice little squall hit North Boca on Memorial Day around 11:30am, it's sad that in south Florida I know exactly when it rained last when the opposite should be true, it should be raining so much that it all blends into one big summer afternoon T-storm.
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THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
First...Agian...HAHAHAHAHA

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061746
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN IS MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just a few interesting observations to note with recent RGB imagery:

(1) Possible banding developing to the north and east of the low level circulation center.

(2) Analysis showing pressure decreasing slightly with the low now at 1006 mb.

(3) In the past hour, the moisture and cloud field with Invest 94L seems to be making some progress further north.
what i find intresting and maybe you can elaborate is the convection to the NE of honduras it has a comma shape to it and how convection has slowly filled around and south of the cayman islands
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262. IKE
My amateur guess....they'll say...there has been little change, etc.
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EPAC (91) gets a red 100%. Nice!
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Just a few interesting observations to note with recent RGB imagery:

(1) Possible banding developing to the north and east of the low level circulation center.

(2) Analysis showing pressure decreasing slightly with the low now at 1006 mb.

(3) In the past hour, the moisture and cloud field with Invest 94L seems to be making some progress further north.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
Quoting Seflhurricane:
94L looks to be finally getting its convection rolling , ball of convection NE of the honduran and nicaragua coast looks intresting . this is a area known for quick tropical development
This is an area I am watching as well. very interesting feature as it is located near the area of highest vorticity in numerous levels of the atmosphere. The wind shift from the monsoon trough is virtually underneath this area, and it is playing with my head.
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256. xcool
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUN 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.4 81.7 300./ 7.0
6 17.7 81.7 14./ 2.9
12 17.9 81.8 331./ 2.5
18 18.0 82.0 287./ 2.0
24 18.2 82.1 332./ 3.4
30 18.8 82.3 347./ 5.6

STORM DISSIPATED AT 30 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
94L looks to be finally getting its convection rolling , ball of convection NE of the honduran and nicaragua coast looks intresting . this is a area known for quick tropical development
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254. IKE
253....what the ?
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Quoting Patrap:
AL942011 - INVEST RAMMB page
Thanks for that Patrap!
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I just hope the final act of this Invest is to dump a lot of rain over Florida, especially North Broward. We're bone dry and dying for some moisture. Well my yard is dying literally and I will be doing my best Rain Dance tonight in speedo and goggles in hopes of stirring up the rain g_ds.
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Andrew Higgins: The American Noah
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
 this could just be due to natural diurnal processes in the atmosphere.
Pressures don't generally fall during the diurnal convective minimum, unless you were simply using a euphemism for natural fluctuation, in which case I agree.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19144
246. IKE
East PAC

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
First...HAHAHAHAHA

East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART




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AL942011 - INVEST RAMMB page
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There is a small possibility that a new circulation center could develop near 16N 82W. That would help 94L's chances to intensify. It's much closer to the anticyclone and is near an area of high vorticity.
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Quoting Hugo7:
Thank you I have been saying this since yesterday.
Yeah, the only legacy 94L will leave behind is beneficial rains for portions of Florida.

Potential danger in the Atlantic will be plentiful in the future. But for now, I am more concerned about 91E.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19144
In the past couple hours, surface pressures are indeed slowly falling, but this could just be due to natural diurnal processes in the atmosphere. Will be waiting to see more impressive falls, if they occur.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
Quoting reedzone:
It's very smoky here in Palm Coast today, gotta be a fire near.. Hasn't been smoky like this since 2006.


Smoky in NC too.
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I have carefully analyzed the charts that Patrap posted and realized I know nothing about anything even remotely related to tropical development.

Therefore, I will go with 30% on the next TWO (that means 'Terrific Weather Outside' right?).
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238. Hugo7
Quoting KoritheMan:
91E is potentially more dangerous than Invest 94L. Some of the models take it to hurricane strength and pull it inland across southwest Mexico, and last night's run of the GFDL brought it to 107 kt.
Thank you I have been saying this since yesterday.
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Quoting Inactivity:


The dry air is not even in the Carribean yet...and it would have to get past that lump of moisture in the east Carribean. You will be right anyway, the NHC is very conservitive with these systems.


Look at the dry air progressing E over the Yucatan

Link
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Quoting Inactivity:
Poll

Precentage at the 2PM TWO...

A.20% or under

B. 30%

C. 40%

D. 50%

E. Any red circle type (60% or higher).


C
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
94L really shouldn't have a 40% chance to develop. Dry air is moving in from the west. I'm thinking NHC will lower it's chances at the next TWO. To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop to 20%.


The dry air is not even in the Carribean yet...and it would have to get past that lump of moisture in the east Carribean. You will be right anyway, the NHC is very conservitive with these systems.
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Quoting Inactivity:
Poll

Precentage at the 2PM TWO...

A.20% or under

B. 30%

C. 40%

D. 50%

E. Any red circle type (60% or higher).
C.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19144
91E is potentially more dangerous than Invest 94L. Some of the models take it to hurricane strength and pull it inland across southwest Mexico, and last night's run of the GFDL brought it to 107 kt.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19144
According to the Wunderground shear forcast the shear isn't going anywhere... How much longer is 94L going to stall?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.