Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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331. 7544
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



wow reading the blog i thought it was the end for 94l lol
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
I by no means am a seasoned storm guy. I think that if this storm continues to produce symentrical storms around the L we should see a Depression by morning. The shear forecasts seem to remain favorable for the next 24-36hrs but the farther north it goes it will get torn up pretty quickly.

I do see that based on model forecast they are showing a more NNW track in the future. The longer it stays south the higher the possiblity it will be that we will see a storm come of it.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
cchs whats your take on 94L currently does it look like it will reach TD status tonight, because i dont think so maybe tomorrow morning but tonight ????and according to the steering currents this is more than likely going to head towards south florida as a real good and beneficial rain maker


I'm confident enough now with the developing pattern and computer models to say that this system will move northward and into the SE GOM or into South Florida late this week into the weekend.

In regards to whether this reaches TD status, given the positive progress the system is making today (lowering pressures, better defined circulation center, improving organization and moisture profiles), it could very well reach that status. Needs to work on continuing to lower pressures so that winds can increase around the circulation.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Quoting ncstorm:
again Reed was right..some of yall must be feeling real bright right about now..


Of course, Reed always predicts higher chances of development. So anytime the chances go up, he's correct.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
50%, impressive.


I told you all this early this morning. Why is everyone so surprised. Sorry I haven't been on, I've been patting myself on the back for the last few minutes.:-) And you guys thought all I could do was make wise-cracks. That'll learn ya!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
I think tonight is a stretch but, as MH09 pointed out, if 94L can maintain some deep convection, tomorrow morning seems very possible.
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No whats recess is how people shoot down others opinions on here..except the nerds have become the bullys..
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L Viz




91E Viz

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Let's not get carried away. For it to become a TD by tonight, it would still have to tighten its circulation a good bit. The center is still exposed, but it's most likely in the process of drawing the convection into the center. Just how fast it can do that is the question. If the convection dies before it can help tighten the circulation, then we are back to square 1.

I think the NHC mentioned tonight or tomorrow in its update mainly because they believe the window of opportunity for development has narrowed to a 24 period. After that, they don't believe upper level conditions will be favorable. In other words, it's either tonight/tomorrow or nothing.
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Quoting biff4ugo:
242 Come rains come! to North Florida too.

Where can I see Cuban Radar?

If 94L spawns a new storm and reorganizes... are the new storms 94A and 94B?



Whichever one seems to have kept most of the energy from the orginal 94L will stay as 94L, the other would theoretically become 95L.
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Question: So if 94L strengthens and later encounters shear, do you think how it "handles" the shear depends directly on how strong it becomes and/or the speed of the movement? Do they know how strong the shear will be? Thanks
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
Quoting IKE:

Paging pressureman.


LOL!!
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Lordy,,how recess like.


LoL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting IKE:

Paging pressureman.


Lol!
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315. IKE

Quoting ncstorm:
again Reed was right..some of yall must be feeling real bright right about now..
Paging pressureman.
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again Reed was right..some of yall must be feeling real bright right about now..
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Quoting biff4ugo:
242 Come rains come! to North Florida too.

Where can I see Cuban Radar?


http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTIL LAS&TB1=RADARES
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312. IKE

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If convection does not wane during tonight's diurnal minimum than a tropical depression late tonight is definitely possible.

It should be noted however that the convection is being sustained by the divergent flow aloft courtesy of the eastern side of the upper-level trough currently located in the Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche.
Without recon going in? I know they can upgrade without, but....wouldn't think they would in this situation.
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Well, I have got to go, the NHC is giving it a 50-50 chance, which in my opinion is right on. If the organization and thunderstorms can continue to slowly deepen and organize till 8PM (when D-Max shortly then starts), then I think we will have a TD in the morn and Arlene Tue noon for about a day!

Afternoon bloggers and happy forcasting!
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
finally some good soaking rains for south florida, thats all we are in a extreme to exceptional drought down here


If it heads that way. But 20% or 50%, if it headed that way, you were gonna get some good rain.

It's the excitement over the percentage I don't understand. I don't think the NHC is indicating ANY chance this could become a named system are they?
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Yeah, you guys will be fine.

Thanks - I am not a met but love the stuff so I just lurk and learn :)
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Just look at post 260.
cchs whats your take on 94L currently does it look like it will reach TD status tonight, because i dont think so maybe tomorrow morning but tonight ????and according to the steering currents this is more than likely going to head towards south florida as a real good and beneficial rain maker
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If convection does not wane during tonight's diurnal minimum than a tropical depression late tonight is definitely possible.

It should be noted however that the convection is being sustained by the divergent flow aloft courtesy of the eastern side of the upper-level trough currently located in the Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche.
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242 Come rains come! to North Florida too.

Where can I see Cuban Radar?

If 94L spawns a new storm and reorganizes... are the new storms 94A and 94B?

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Quoting BobinTampa:

Why are we so excited about this?
For those of us like myself, who care deeply about record keeping, the answer is obvious.
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303. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Some of you long-timers had me scratching my head, on why you were being so conservative on 94L.
I see the center spinning...I do see some convection near it...they may have upped it because some is now west of the center.
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Quoting BobinTampa:
So they're basically saying it might be come a T.D. for a few hours and then get ripped apart?

Why are we so excited about this?
finally some good soaking rains for south florida, thats all we are in a extreme to exceptional drought down here
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Possible TD at 11!
One can clearly see the center on the visible loop. It's exactly where that clear blue spot is south of Grand Cayman on the IR pic that sammy posted in #284.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5688
Quoting Patrap:
The NHC Punted?

4th and long.
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A few people have been noting the fact that convection has been building around the center for the first time in its lifetime. Organization-wise, it has never been this organized as there has never been convection on any side other than the eastern portion of the circulation. I'm still not sure if it will develop, but it's certainly the best it has been yet.
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Quoting Watching4Belize:
So Belize has little to be concerned about for now, right? We got Alex last year :(
Yeah, you guys will be fine.
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Some were right regarding development. Kudos and my respect for your knowledge and insight. Looking forward to seeing the new models.
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
The deep convection in the NW of this image is racing to the LLC.

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So they're basically saying it might be come a T.D. for a few hours and then get ripped apart?

Why are we so excited about this?
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if indeed 94L forms into a tropical depression/storm expect the welcomed rain we need in South Florida, according to the TWO its going to be moving nw to nnw towards western cuba then into southern florida
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Hazy High River @ Algiers Turn/Point NOLA

www.nola.com/rivercam
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
So Belize has little to be concerned about for now, right? We got Alex last year :(
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Doesn't look like 50% to me, but hey I'll take the rain ;)

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Quoting portcharlotte:
one could clearly see better organization...we have some un-trained eyes and opinoons on this blog


Just look at post 260.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Some of you long-timers had me scratching my head, on why you were being so conservative on 94L.
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The NHC Punted?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Not surprised at all at the 50% and possible depression tonight.
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This is actually a pretty surprising statement from the NHC below:

SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE.
THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
ok guys we can plzs stop spaming the blogs with nhc twos one or two is find but more the two is called spam
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282. xcool
huhhhhhhhhhhhhh huh huh 50% wow
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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