Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

Share this Blog
11
+

There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 382 - 332

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

382. Hugo7
94L is still a ways off. I don't see it becoming anything in the next 24 hours, maybe 48.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Rain for me sounds good.
miami looking at observations and visible images it looks to be closing off the south side , so maybe a TD later today ?????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
380. IKE

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
SAB still not interested:

06/1745 UTC 17.8N 81.9W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic
WTH?

50%? Possible TD tonight?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seflhurricane:
thats approaching TS Strengh


Nowhere close. Thats just a disturbance. This map shows low level vorticity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
378. afj3
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I am sitting here salivating today.

I don't think I've ever missed rain so much before and I don't think I've ever had car washes make it this far before either, lol. I am sure they (car wash owners) will be happy when it starts to rain again as I imagine their business is down quite a lot.

Hopefully it will come soon!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
96 hour 12Z ECMWF...




Rain for me sounds good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
96 hour 12Z ECMWF...




thats approaching TS Strengh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting midgulfmom:
Kudos to those who were called the strengthening. Does anyone think that 94L might survive the unfavorable upper level winds? Does that directly depend on it's size and speed at the time? Thanks


A lot of variables with that. It depends on the strength of the system going in, the strength of the shear, is there dry air present ect.. Barry a few years back did ok in 30kts.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
374. IKE
96 hour 12Z ECMWF...




Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting portcharlotte:
remember last year
Shear wasn't an issue last year. At least, not once Danielle formed. Subsequent to that point, everything was pretty much a go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SAB still not interested:

06/1745 UTC 17.8N 81.9W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HouGalv08:
Houston IAH already at 100.9, some parts in town already 104 or 105. No wind, the heat is just sitting on us. Gotten to the point I wouldn't mind a tropical system of SOME SORT to give us a break!
I think the entire Gulf Coast is clammering for that..LOL Hope you catch a break soon...
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
Shear forecasts can be sheer lunacy...they are not always correct...remember last year
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Houston IAH already at 100.9, some parts in town already 104 or 105. No wind, the heat is just sitting on us. Gotten to the point I wouldn't mind a tropical system of SOME SORT to give us a break!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WHEW!!
Taking a Breather here. Conc. Going well.
It is 96F here bright now....
Who knows what it is outside in the Sun!! I'm feeling a little Parched.

94L is a good example of Swings and Roundabouts, Yo-Yo's, Pendulums, Life, The Universe and Everything.

Stay Tuned for the next episode of "We Told You So!"

heheheheh, Good Stuff, man.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24799
Quoting kmanislander:


It doesn't look like closed to me but very close to it. The pass was around 1500 UTC so we are a few hours beyond that anyway. It may be in better shape now.


Given the fact that RGB and visible satellite imagery both show pretty evident SW winds, I believe its pretty much closed now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
First chance to pop in today -- looks like 94L is keeping the blog busy.

I would be very happy with an amorphous tropical blob with lots of rain, don't see much of a chance of more than that if the wind shear pans out to the models.

Kind of like the wind shear is going to come along and take its head off. We've seen that many times.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back later
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Kudos to those who were called the strengthening. Does anyone think that 94L might survive the unfavorable upper level winds? Does that directly depend on it's size and speed at the time? Thanks
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
wow!!!! 100%
it prob should have a name already
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
good day everyone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It woold be interesting to read what Dr Masters has to say of the latest about 94L. Let's see if he does a new blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well break time is too short. I'll be back for lunch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Serious moment, now. I really believe it will be the burst of convection to the SW that will be the player in development as I have posted earlier this morning; to look out for the SW convection to begin moving towards the center. If the pressure falls, it will most likely bring the energy from the North into play.


This is closer to the anticyclone.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11410
Quoting Levi32:


Hi Kman.

It's closed....the ASCAT is missing SW winds in the SE quad, but those winds are clearly there right now on visible loops. It just needs to get tighter, but it is closed.


It doesn't look like closed to me but very close to it. The pass was around 1500 UTC so we are a few hours beyond that anyway. It may be in better shape now.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
..ahhhhhhhhhhh,

FRESCA,..cold with lotsa Ice


94L Floater - Funktop Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
Quoting Grothar:
Serious moment, now. I really believe it will be the burst of convection to the SW that will be the player in development as I have posted earlier this morning; to look out for the SW convection to begin moving towards the center. If the pressure falls, it will most likely bring the energy from the North into play.


Link



Looks like it wants to head in that direction.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
353. 7544
does anyone see the new models run shifting east again on the next update ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Should we be keeping a tracker on how many times the same TWO is going to be posted over and over?

91E looks quite healthy. Shouldn't be long before it starts to take off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So 50% and the Nhc agreeing that a TD might form tonight or tomorrow, so if the convection wraps around the surface low we should see a 60 or 70% chance at 8
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Levi

Here is the Ascat pass. Still not closed and somewhat elongated from the NW to the SE. Open on the SE.



Hi Kman.

It's closed....the ASCAT is missing SW winds in the SE quad, but those winds are clearly there right now on visible loops. It just needs to get tighter, but it is closed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Buoy 42057 is reporting winds out of the south, that would make sense considering the surface circulation is to the west of there.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
50%, eh? Interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting afj3:
Would love to see South Florida in the cone of a weak and wet tropical system. Hopefully today we will be in a cone and get some rain soon without damaging winds!



I am sitting here salivating today.

I don't think I've ever missed rain so much before and I don't think I've ever had car washes make it this far before either, lol. I am sure they (car wash owners) will be happy when it starts to rain again as I imagine their business is down quite a lot.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting Levi32:
94L's circulation is actually becoming a little better defined today. It's not that far from classification as a TD once it gets convection over the center.


I agree. I will admit, I was pessimistic waking up this morning regarding the system, but its definitely made some noteworthy improvements in the past few hours or so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yea and just a few hours ago we were all RIP-ing this system LOL!
Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
Quoting Levi32:
94L's circulation is actually becoming a little better defined today. It's not that far from classification as a TD once it gets convection over the center.


Hi Levi

Here is the Ascat pass. Still not closed and somewhat elongated from the NW to the SE. Open on the SE.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Serious moment, now. I really believe it will be the burst of convection to the SW that will be the player in development as I have posted earlier this morning; to look out for the SW convection to begin moving towards the center. If the pressure falls, it will most likely bring the energy from the North into play.


Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27115


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
339. afj3
Would love to see South Florida in the cone of a weak and wet tropical system. Hopefully today we will be in a cone and get some rain soon without damaging winds!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:

Without recon going in? I know they can upgrade without, but....wouldn't think they would in this situation.
You have a point, usually they like to get Recon's data before declaring it. It could go either way, personally I would wait it out until Recon gets in there tomorrow, but there is a good possibility it gets declared since we don't have a lack of surface data (Honduras, Grand Cayman, and most importantly, buoy 42057).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke Product

Current HMS Fire and Smoke Analysis

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L's circulation is actually becoming a little better defined today. It's not that far from classification as a TD once it gets convection over the center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BobinTampa:


Of course, Reed always predicts higher chances of development. So anytime the chances go up, he's correct.


and most predict lower and guess what, they are wrong..works both ways..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
334. IKE

Quoting ncstorm:
No whats recess is how people shoot down others opinions on here..except the nerds have become the bullys..
I agree..that does lead to problems on here and everyone is entitled to their opinion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 382 - 332

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
28 °F
Mostly Cloudy