Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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432. xcool
neway
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Quoting cg2916:
I don't know what to say.

One school of thought says that the disorganization and shear will ultimately get to it.

The other says it will organize and possibly develop.

I'm so conflicted, LOL.


You actually hit the current NHC percentage nail on the head.........You got a 50/50 shot either way... :)
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please blow to Texas, 94!

im so hot lol
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428. xcool
yay rain here
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This supports that the area of convection to the SE of the currently circulation center is aligned with the area of greatest vorticity and least shear:



The 700mb vorticity chart suggests the same.
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94L starting to tighin up but i see multiple vorticies near the main center but it looks to be on its way to a TD later tonight or overnight
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94L looks better today, some deep convection firing off to the south of the low. If the trends continue, we may see some more organization with this.

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Not only is convection firing over the LLC now, it is consolidating some. We might indeed see a TD before this hits the sheer. I am in agreement with most, would just like some much needed rain here in fla.
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Quoting Grothar:
Getting interesting now.


Your image changed.. unless we are suddenly into forecasting invests in the Arabian Sea...
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I think I am going to break out my drum and drum the storm toward Florida. :)
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Quoting IKE:

BOO!!!!!!!!!!


ROFL
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Quoting cg2916:
I don't know what to say.

One school of thought says that the disorganization and shear will ultimately get to it.

The other says it will organize and possibly develop.

I'm so conflicted, LOL.
Or the one that says IF it can fight off disorganization, and take advantage of the things going for it, it *may* develop, but then will have a sizable hurdle in the form of the jet streak over the Yucatan Channel and Cuba.
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419. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:
I am not convinced of 94L's destiny to be TD1, or Arlene.

BOO!!!!!!!!!!
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418. IKE

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
18z TVCN aiming at south Florida. If it verifies...RAIN!

AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 0, 180N, 819W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 12, 187N, 815W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 24, 193N, 814W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 36, 199N, 815W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 48, 203N, 809W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 60, 212N, 804W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 72, 225N, 801W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 84, 240N, 803W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 96, 252N, 809W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 108, 260N, 814W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 120, 267N, 815W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 132, 276N, 817W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
And I'm on the dry side:(
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How likely is the moisture from 94L to ride up the east coast?
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Quoting DestinJeff:
I am not convinced of 94L's destiny to be TD1, or Arlene.



You havent been looking at the REED model obviously then...
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6672
Just my opinion here guys but 94L is very disorganized. Just how many different vortices can you see on the visible sat! Its a broad low pressure with a half dozen smaller circulations embedded within it.

I'd say it is as impressive as it is ever going to get considering conditions down the road are going to turn agianst rather quickly starting tommorrow.

Lets hope Florida gets a good healthy soak'n from this.
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414. xcool
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I don't know what to say.

One school of thought says that the disorganization and shear will ultimately get to it.

The other says it will organize and possibly develop.

I'm so conflicted, LOL.
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Quoting Grothar:
Getting interesting now.

Very nice anticyclone over it... Of course, can it take advantage of the upper-level dynamics? Will 94L be named? Will it stumble north and be decapitated by shear? Find out on the next NHC TWO, at 8.


Honestly though, with the upper-level support there in the form of a sizable anticyclone, it just needs to consolidate its convection over the proto-LLC (I'm calling it a proto-LLC, since its still somewhat questionable if its closed off fully), and tighten up. That said, if it can do that in the next 18-24 hours, its cooking with gas. If it doesn't... the blog will be going into fits tomorrow because we won't have TS Arlene.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Never question the NHC, they know what they are doing.
Obviously you never read "the Phantom", the story about that barefoot cruise sailing vessel that went down in Mitch.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Is the center of circulation south of Jamacia? If not can someone shoot out the coordinates for me? Thanks!


See post 396.
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18z TVCN aiming at south Florida. If it verifies...RAIN!

AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 0, 180N, 819W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 12, 187N, 815W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 24, 193N, 814W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 36, 199N, 815W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 48, 203N, 809W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 60, 212N, 804W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 72, 225N, 801W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 84, 240N, 803W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 96, 252N, 809W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 108, 260N, 814W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 120, 267N, 815W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2011060618, 03, TVCN, 132, 276N, 817W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Happy Monday to all, 100 degrees here at 1:40 pm with few to no clouds. Stay Cool
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Never question the NHC, they know what they are doing.


That is rich.
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Quoting Hugo7:
94L is still a ways off. I don't see it becoming anything in the next 24 hours, maybe 48.


Never question the NHC, they know what they are doing.
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Quoting HouGalv08:
Houston IAH already at 100.9, some parts in town already 104 or 105. No wind, the heat is just sitting on us. Gotten to the point I wouldn't mind a tropical system of SOME SORT to give us a break!


At this point, I would be content with a TD to form, and just fizzle out right after passing over us. That said, our current setup says "LOL" to that. :(
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Getting interesting now.

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Quoting cg2916:


Smoky in NC too.


No kidding. Blech.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Thought I noticed the area south of Jamaica heading NE. Think this could be it North of PR?

A bunch of models developed that area before it moved northward and got picked up by a trough. Nothing in the form of convection there though.

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Is the center of circulation south of Jamacia? If not can someone shoot out the coordinates for me? Thanks!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says:

AL, 94, 2011060618, , BEST, 0, 180N, 819W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 275, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

That is, no change.


They just changed that too. I was there about 20 min ago and the three at the bottom said LO not DB as it does now.
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Definitely been getting organized and convection is blowing up closer to the center, and hey, we got the convection to blow up on the western side too, nice job 94L!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Thought I noticed the area south of Jamaica heading NE. Think this could be it North of PR?

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18z Best Track

AL, 94, 2011060618, , BEST, 0, 180N, 819W, 25, 1006, DB

Link
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ATCF says:

AL, 94, 2011060618, , BEST, 0, 180N, 819W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 275, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

That is, no change.
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Quoting pottery:
...94L is a good example of Swings and Roundabouts, Yo-Yo's, Pendulums, Life, The Universe and Everything.

Stay Tuned for the next episode of "We Told You So!"

heheheheh, Good Stuff, man.


Post of the Day!
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I think it can fend off some shear, and become arlene, as long as its anticyclone is over her, she will be in good shape, but never mind, Florida will most likely receive beneficial rains from this and that's all that matters for the time being.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
392. IKE

Quoting tropicfreak:


LOL, so the tropics aren't quiet for now, and BOB BRECK isn't the man.
LOL.

144 hr. 12Z ECMWF...


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Quoting IKE:

Paging pressureman.


LOL, so the tropics aren't quiet for now, and BOB BRECK isn't the man.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting Seflhurricane:
so it looks like a TD later tonight , all we need is real good convection later, but does it look like south florida will be receiving the present
Definitely possible. Convection needs to organize and not wane throughout the diurnal minimum. Should that happen, a TD tonight into tomorrow is a good possibility.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I believe the circulation is already closed. It needs to tighten up however, still a little broad.
so it looks like a TD later tonight , all we need is real good convection later, but does it look like south florida will be receiving the present
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Big difference from earlier today.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8435
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


A lot of variables with that. It depends on the strength of the system going in, the strength of the shear, is there dry air present ect.. Barry a few years back did ok in 30kts.
Thanks. Yes indeed,lots of variables! We will see. Many things to consider that need to happen at a certain time. It's all in the "set up" I suppose.. thanks again.
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386. 7544
will the models shift to the left with this new o info ? tia
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Quoting afj3:

Hopefully it will come soon!


I've got a good feeling about this one. Hopefully it doesn't find a groove zone and bring some nasty winds with it.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
miami looking at observations and visible images it looks to be closing off the south side , so maybe a TD later today ?????
I believe the circulation is already closed. It needs to tighten up however, still a little broad.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Nowhere close. Thats just a disturbance. This map shows low level vorticity.
could not see it correctly looks to me like a TD close to TS status
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382. Hugo7
94L is still a ways off. I don't see it becoming anything in the next 24 hours, maybe 48.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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