Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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It's Sammy's 470 comment image that Chrome hates.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Grothar, where do you predict 94L will go?



Depending on the strength, it should move NW to North. I am still not satisfied with the location of the center. It would appear to be somewhere along the west coast of Florida (at this time) Until we see how strong it becomes, that would change the effect of the upper level steering currents, which at this time do not appear that strong.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Grothar:


How do you think of these things? LOl


I don't know. Let me look at my containers from Walgreens.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hmm. Google doesn't like Wunderground anymore.. lol.



Anyone know anything about this?
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478. IKE

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


RYOC(Run Your Own Concensus) has it heading your way.

AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 0 177N 816W 25
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 12 179N 817W 23
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 24 183N 818W 24
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 36 188N 818W 24
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 48 195N 823W 25
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 60 205N 829W 25
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 72 217N 834W 27
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 84 230N 835W 35
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 96 242N 839W 36
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 108 270N 848W 39
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 120 290N 846W 40
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 132 311N 838W 41
That's more like it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Now that's scary!!!

Sums up the thinking quite nicely...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24909
Quoting Grothar:


Now that's scary!!!


whats scary about it? hahaha
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6705
Quoting alfabob:
Pretty sure there is a surface feature north of jamaica.
It looks like it, but it's in the mid-levels. There's no low-level inflow gravitating towards that spin on RGB.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:






Now that's scary!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting IKE:

And I'm on the dry side:(


RYOC(Run Your Own Concensus) has it heading your way.

AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 0 177N 816W 25
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 12 179N 817W 23
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 24 183N 818W 24
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 36 188N 818W 24
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 48 195N 823W 25
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 60 205N 829W 25
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 72 217N 834W 27
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 84 230N 835W 35
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 96 242N 839W 36
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 108 270N 848W 39
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 120 290N 846W 40
AL 94 2011060612 03 RYOC 132 311N 838W 41
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
469. 7544
yeap looks like a thrus or fri event in so fla if you go by this

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Still no sign of convergence though, will the convection maintain...

As long as the upper-level trough in the Gulf of Mexico continues to maintain convection with diffluent flow aloft, convection will probably not wane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


You forgot, "that being said........"

LOL, that falls under 'upcast' or 'downcast' depending on the next 3 words.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24909
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Oh no! You don't mean a...Wind Chime Warning?


How do you think of these things? LOl
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting pottery:
Concerning 94L and it's Indecision.
And taking into account the length of time it's been around.
And the fact that every conceivable statement, cliche, remark, forecast, upcast and dowwncast that can possibly be used has been used....
my posts will now consist of one word...

"Ditto"


You forgot, "that being said........"
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Still no sign of convergence though, will the convection maintain...

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting DestinJeff:


I take it back.

Now I think it will be a beast of Scattered Showers, perhaps even rivaling that of the historic 93L.


Good thing this Thompson's Water Seal is good for 10 years!
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Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6705
Quoting tkeith:
"ditto":)
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Quoting Grothar:


I think "drought" is the wrong word.



Getting away from myself again. 3-5" won't bust a 20+" deficit, your right.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting pottery:
Concerning 94L and it's Indecision.
And taking into account the length of time it's been around.
And the fact that every conceivable statement, cliche, remark, forecast, upcast and dowwncast that can possibly be used has been used....
my posts will now consist of one word...

"Ditto"em>
that goes for me too...

:)
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Quoting Hurrykane:


Mid level.


Dang it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Concerning 94L and it's Indecision.
And taking into account the length of time it's been around.
And the fact that every conceivable statement, cliche, remark, forecast, upcast and dowwncast that can possibly be used has been used....
my posts will now consist of one word...

"Ditto"
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24909
Circulation continues to consolidate on satellite imagery. Latest 850mb vorticity proves this.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



It doesn't get any more drought busting perfect than that.


I think "drought" is the wrong word.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Yippeee for 94L....and there's some precip popping up....all good :)

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Quoting DestinJeff:


I take it back.

Now I think it will be a beast of Scattered Showers, perhaps even rivaling that of the historic 93L.


Oh no! You don't mean a...Wind Chime Warning?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

Your image changed.. unless we are suddenly into forecasting invests in the Arabian Sea...



I think I just heard a crunching sound (LOL)
Here, you happy now?


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Caribbean is full of moisture. Most active spot in the MJO. Should relieve some of Florida drought soon. Looking forward to the rain...
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441. IKE

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
AL, 94, 2011060618, 180N, 819W, 25, 1006, DB
That's where I see it spinning.


Quoting DestinJeff:


I take it back.

Now I think it will be a beast of Scattered Showers, perhaps even rivaling that of the historic 93L.
That's better!
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Hi Everyone. The XTRP is going to my house!!! Lol. I know, I know. Does look like some have shifted west?

Link
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Quoting Grothar:



It doesn't get any more drought busting perfect than that.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
3 HRS AGO


Current:



Vorticity has consolidated, but has weakened quite a bit.

Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6705
Hold on, stop! (Hammer time)

JK, but look here:



Take a look just north of Jamaica. I see a COC possibly.
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AL, 94, 2011060618, 180N, 819W, 25, 1006, DB
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Wow, the NHC says a Tropical Depression could form tonight.. I agree, this is organizing nicely. I told you it wasn't over yet. Where's Stormtop?? lol

Oh well, off to work.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
432. xcool
neway
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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